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Your 2020 FF Bust Predictions

Discussion in 'Fantasy Football Forum - Message Board' started by averagejoe, May 22, 2020.

  1. averagejoe

    averagejoe You've pulled one of the classic blunders.

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    8 Early Busts (2020 Fantasy Football)

    Fantasy Pros provided 8 of their early busts for the 2020 season. Now its your turn. How about commenting on at least 1 player from each position.

    Or you can rip me for my picks. :yo:

    Disclaimer: these guys below may be easy targets. Some feel they're ranked too high to actually "bust." But based on their ECR, that may be a tall order to finish that high. (I might change it up later.)


    QB - Dak Prescott
    Currently the consensus #3 QB off the board. I doubt he finishes in the top 3. He may not lose you any fantasy games but his numbers are not elite. Best to wait on a QB.

    RB - Kenyan Drake
    Currently the #11 RB being drafted. I just dont trust this guy. He put up decent numbers as a compliment RB in Miami. Then he got the starting nod and it went more south than Miami is located. Gore ended up with better numbers that season. I see a repeat in Zona. The argument might be that David Johnson was banged up and not 100%, but neither was Ajayi while Drake was in Miami. The starting role seems to be a curse for Drake.

    WR - Chris Godwin/Mike Evans (tie)
    Their ECR is 6 and 8 respectively. I know everyone is excited in "Tompa". But with all of the mouths to feed in that offense, I just dont see a 40+ QB supporting two top-10 WR, even if he is destined for Canton. As great as the Pats dynasty had been, only 1 time in Brady's tenure did he have two top-10 WR. (Moss & Welker back in 2009 - 11 seasons ago.) One of them may do well out of Godwin and Evans? Or neither.

    TE - Austin Hooper
    I dont put much value in any TE. Hooper is coming off a good 2019 campaign that was rewarded with a decent off-season free agent contract. He is currently the 11th TE to be drafted. No great risk. But unfortunately he landed in Cleveland. I will find it hard to commit to any player there. I feel your pain, Browns fans. But I wont share in it.
     



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    Last edited: May 22, 2020
  2. SteelersPride

    SteelersPride Well-Known Member

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    im with you on evans, godwin is the technician, hes the one i think does well....hooper i agree, i see drake as a really nice fit in that system and more wr talent to open things up in that spread.....
     
  3. SmokingMonkey

    SmokingMonkey MLS....come to STL!!!

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    QB - Watson. Not only is BOB a questionable trader, his offense has been RELYING on Hopkins to keep the chains moving and make some splash plays. whatever dink n dunk attack he's working on looks unimpressive and even less exciting. Who knows, maybe Fuller/Stills will provide enough of a deep threat to make him worth his QB6 ECR. I think he's a back end QB1/good QB2 this year

    RB - this is tough, as I think both Ekeler (ECR 13) and CEH (ECR 14) are overrated, but I'll go Ekeler here. I'm expecting the QB change to impact this offense for the worse, regardless if its Tyrod or Herbert. Could actually work to Ekeler's advantage, but I don't want anything to do with a passing down RB coming off a career year. Stinks of negative regression to me.

    WR - Amari Cooper, ECR 9, which is where he finished last year. Which is also his only season to finish in the top 12 in his career. Maybe those 3-4 big games he has every year will be big enough to put him in the top 12 again, but I'm counting on those other 75% of his games to be big enough turds to keep him in the WR15-20 range.

    TE - you already took my #1 guy in Hooper, so I'll go west, Las Vegas baby! Waller - Chucky did everything possible to not secure Waller's workload from last year to this season. Drafted 3 WRs and prevented Witten from realizing he's not getting a 2nd chance in the broadcast booth for at least 1 more season. Just can't see him getting 117 targets again, less opportunity should lead to less pts. ECR TE5 seems ambitious for a 1yr wonder.
     
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  4. Stomp

    Stomp Rookie Fever

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    QB Dak QB3, Kyler QB4, and Watson QB6 all don't have the track record to consider taking them early

    RB Dalvin Cook RB5 Still love the talent, but 3 seasons and he still has a combined total of 0 points in FF championship games can't trust him.

    honorable mention Joe Mixon RB7 He was having a horrible season and they didn't really start using him until after they decided they were tanking

    WR Amari Cooper WR11 He was already arguably the #2 option to Gallup last season and now he has Lamb to contend with. I don't see Lamb having a huge snap count, but imo as the season progresses he'll see the field more and Cooper is the most likely of the 3 to move to the slot. My guess is both Cooper and Gallup have a slight dip in snap count, but Coopers comes with fewer deep targets.
     
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  5. HaroldSeattle

    HaroldSeattle Super Moderator Staff Member Moderator

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    QB: Watson-He's going to miss Hopkins a bunch.
    RB: Drake- Don't trust a RB that takes that long to break out.
    WR: Mike Evans- he's going really really miss Winston. Brady isn't going long often.
    TE: Ertz- going to see the drop off hit and Goedert establish himself.
     
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  6. TREFF

    TREFF Fantasy Football Guru--??

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    I'm with on all of em but Godwin. I feel his game and what Brady has left to offer, mesh perfectly.
     
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  7. TREFF

    TREFF Fantasy Football Guru--??

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    QB- Lamar- not becuase I think he'll be bad, but he's just being way over drafted. Much like any other QB coming off a record setting performance, expecting a repeat is unrealistic.

    RB- Ekeler. Another way over drafted guy. Not gonna handle the load, and without Rivers..as rough as he was, still worlds better than Thai Stick or a rook, that offense is very iffy in my opinion. They need a power run game for those QB's, not a finesse BS one.

    WR- Evans, exact opposite of Godwin, Bradys game is not what Evans thrives on, I would go so far as to say he's a TD dependant WR2/flex
    TE- Waller. Again, not that I think he'll suck, he's just not gonna repeat his season last year. Between Ruggs, Bryan, Renfrow, Bowden, and T. Williams, theres just not the opportunities there were last year. Heck, Renfrow alone, coming on strong at the end of the year rendered him virtually useless. A low end TE1 at best.
     
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  8. The Foot

    The Foot Well-Known Member

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    I hate to say this and even though I'm calling for a bust with this guy I'd still like to own him on the chances I'm wrong but its Tyreek Hill. I actually thought he would fall off last year. The only reason I think this is because I think he loses the extra step he has on everyone. Kind of like how chris johnson lost that step and suddenly was a average to below average RB. I think like Johnson hill is about to lose that extra step and then he becomes much easier to cover. I hope I'm wrong but I just have that gut feeling.

    Also I'm stating away from all chargers players and I am actually thinking Murray will bust even though I was super high on him last year and when Hopkins was traded and even with all the hype with Hopkins and the air attack I am just not a big fan of the coach's ability to call plays. Someone like bruce arians or andy Reid, guys like that can make stars out of average players.
     
  9. The Foot

    The Foot Well-Known Member

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    Dare I say mc Caffery only cause he just got paid and that's never a good thing
     
  10. HaroldSeattle

    HaroldSeattle Super Moderator Staff Member Moderator

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    Thing with CMC is his stats could drop 20% across the board and he would still be the leading RB end of the year. I'm not betting he'll drop more then that.
     
  11. SteelersPride

    SteelersPride Well-Known Member

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    curious why is hill gonna lose a step? hes 26
     
  12. The Foot

    The Foot Well-Known Member

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    I dont know but it happened to my favorite player of all time and I'm just speculating that it is likely it will happen to hill. I believe (and this is just my opinion totally, I have no evidence to back it up) but I believe to maintain that level of speed for more than a few years is very hard or next to impossible. Like I said I dont remember what age Johnson was when he lost that step but I know it was somewhere one that age range.
     
  13. TREFF

    TREFF Fantasy Football Guru--??

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    That'd be about 28-29...but RB's age differently than WR's. Long as he has no problems with knees, ankle, and hamstrings, I don't see him losing a step for quite some time. But hey, who knows
     
  14. The Foot

    The Foot Well-Known Member

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    It's pure speculation on my part and dont wish it on him but just throwing it out there.
     
  15. Barilko

    Barilko Probably at hockey or some dam concert you tell me

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    Qb- well since i own him it would seem in 98% of FF leagues played world wide i wont say you know who

    and with the loss of my fave Hopkins you would expect him to slide down

    however ill throw this out there maybe in the stupid Obrien real world he slides the wrong way but in FF he may sling it more than ever in 2nd half desperation.. i honestly see his total FF points being in the same ballpark...

    Ill have to go Jackson here --- oh and i think Cousins will slip but he isnt drafted highly anyhow

    Rb A Jones he will tumble as he loses goal carries to Dillon
    Bonus Fournette as he blows a gasket worried too much about coin

    Wr Evans he wont have Winston putting up 50 times a game anymore as Tompa Brady spreads it out and then hands it off with 6 minutes to go....

    TE as much as i have to say the Hooper logic makes sense to lead this overdrafted scenario ill go Gronk big guy falls down and goes back to raslin'
     
  16. Bandit

    Bandit RIP to the real Bandit

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    QB - Desean Watson - I mean I tried to come up with somebody else, but it just has to be Watson. Losing Hopkins is one thing, but when I looked this up I was shocked, he actually tied Lamar Jackson for the most rushing touchdowns last year with 7 and he also had a receiving touchdown. That's a lot and probably will not be duplicated. Don't get me wrong, I'm rooting for him and he really is a great quarterback, but it's going to be tougher without Hopkins as a security blanket.

    RB - Chris Carson - there's just something about him that the job will just never be fully his and now with Hyde there as well, I think by week 7 or 8 when Penny comes back this will be a full blown committee and Carson is getting drafted at the end of the 3rd round as RB16 and I just don't think he comes close to that by the end of the year.

    WR - Courtland Sutton - cases could certainly be made for Evans and even Michael Thomas just because of how much of a monster year he put up last year, but I'm going with Sutton. I think it won't be long before the Broncos realize that he's the 2nd best wide receiver on their team, because Jerry Jeudy is good and now Melvin Gordon is there too to snatch up some targets. He's getting drafted as wide receiver 17 in the beginning of the 4th round and I don't think he comes close to that production.

    TE - Hunter Henry - As somebody that has owned him since he came into the league, I can assure you that he has done nothing in his tenure to merit being drafted as the 6th tight end off the board. In D1 he had 4 double digit games in 2016 (his "breakout" year). Since then he's had 5 total in the three years combined. Potential is such a dangerous word in fantasy and some guys just never live up to it (picture of Hunter Henry waving).
     
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  17. TKOSpikes

    TKOSpikes Well-Known Member

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    QB - Kyler Murray... He shouldn't be here, because his ADP shouldn't be up where it is.

    RB - Josh Jacobs... bringing in lots of pass play backs, countering their rhetoric. Good back but game flow will take him out of too many games to be your RB1.

    WR - Allen Robinson...high targets won't be there this year. Drop him back a tier.

    TE - Mark Andrews...efficiency will go down. Going too high when there are others like him last year ready to break out from the late rounds.
     
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  18. SteelersPride

    SteelersPride Well-Known Member

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    This. Rbs get hit a lot. Hill hasn't.

    he's still fast as f'
     
  19. Chef99

    Chef99 It's raw, you donkey!

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    Cousins. I hope I'm wrong.
    Also Hooper, which kills me, 'cause he finally came around last year. However, he signed with Cleveland. 'nuff said.
     
  20. SteelersPride

    SteelersPride Well-Known Member

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    QB-I know TKO is gonna come at me but josh allen. looking at guys in the top 10.....or carson wince

    RB-NonPPR-Kamara, standard-henry , nick chub

    WR-Mike evans, Julio, AJ brown, Amari Cooper, Thielen, terry mclaurin, AJ green, Marquise Brown, edelman

    TE-Kittle, yep.


    D-Bears D....