Your 2020 FF Bust Predictions

[TREFF]

QB-I know TKO is gonna come at me but josh allen. looking at guys in the top 10.....or carson wince

RB-NonPPR-Kamara, standard-henry , nick chub

WR-Mike evans, Julio, AJ brown, Amari Cooper, Thielen, terry mclaurin, AJ green, Marquise Brown, edelman

TE-Kittle, yep.


D-Bears D....

I gotta ask, only because I need clarification, as I'm seeing an inconsistency.
Your not high on AJ Brown becuase he's in such a run heavy offense..fair enough, I get it.
But your also down in Henry, even after, by leading the league in rushing, he proved the finish of '18 was no fluke. They jettisoned D. Lewis, only other Rb to speak of on the roster currently, is a 3rd round rookie who had very little hype on him coming out.
Henry is still the guy, virtually the only guy, in a rush heavy offense, one so run heavy that you don't like thier #1 WR much, so why still down in Henry? I don't get where those two takes coexist...are you predicting injury for Henry? Or are you thinking Evans steals the show?

 

[Clayton]

honorable mention Joe Mixon RB7 He was having a horrible season and they didn't really start using him until after they decided they were tanking

That seems crazy high for Mixon. Joe seems like he should be the type of player that drops a round because everyone remembers how poorly he did the year before and then he ends up being a decent pick. RB7? No thanks

 

[ehb5]

QB - Kyler Murray. I like Murray but I think there's a little more risk here. Dak and Watson are still just better QBs and they have plenty of weapons (even with Hopkins gone from Hou). He'll be a QB1 but slightly disappointing.

RB - Aaron Jones. This is a trendy pick but I think it's spot on. His touchdown rate is wildly unsustainable and their HC (who came from TEN) just drafted Derrick Henry lite in the 2nd round. I don't trust him as an RB1.

WR - Cooper Kupp. If the Rams keep up their late season offensive style Woods will be the WR1 there and Kupp will be a bit overlooked. Plus they just drafted his likely replacement in round 2.

TE - Ertz. Others have said it but I agree. He's getting up there and Goedert is lurking. Plus Phillys WRs are unlikely to be as awful as they were last year so fewer targets may go to the TEs anyways.



Sidenote - I feel like some of you are forgetting how good Mike Evans is. He's likely gonna stroll into the hall of fame with ease. Im not expecting somebody that good to fall off in their prime with the best QB they've ever played with.

 

[The Foot]

QB - Kyler Murray. I like Murray but I think there's a little more risk here. Dak and Watson are still just better QBs and they have plenty of weapons (even with Hopkins gone from Hou). He'll be a QB1 but slightly disappointing.

RB - Aaron Jones. This is a trendy pick but I think it's spot on. His touchdown rate is wildly unsustainable and their HC (who came from TEN) just drafted Derrick Henry lite in the 2nd round. I don't trust him as an RB1.

WR - Cooper Kupp. If the Rams keep up their late season offensive style Woods will be the WR1 there and Kupp will be a bit overlooked. Plus they just drafted his likely replacement in round 2.

TE - Ertz. Others have said it but I agree. He's getting up there and Goedert is lurking. Plus Phillys WRs are unlikely to be as awful as they were last year so fewer targets may go to the TEs anyways.



Sidenote - I feel like some of you are forgetting how good Mike Evans is. He's likely gonna stroll into the hall of fame with ease. Im not expecting somebody that good to fall off in their prime with the best QB they've ever played with.

I'm with you on Mike Evans. I think all those Tampa Players are gonna improve in stats. I feel like Bruce brought Brady to air it out. I think Bruce will pass even more than normal with brady now. He is gonna get his money's worth out of Brady and Brady has something real to prove. He should be more hungry than ever to prove it was him that one all those super bowls and not belichick

 

[TREFF]

Sidenote - I feel like some of you are forgetting how good Mike Evans is. He's likely gonna stroll into the hall of fame with ease. Im not expecting somebody that good to fall off in their prime with the best QB they've ever played with.

Well, I'd say that's likely taking a little for granted. After six years, six really good years, he's no HOF lock. Andre Rison through six years had more catches, and substantially more TD's, in a much less pass happy era, and he ain't in yet. i think the HOF voters are going to be taking the pass happy-ness of today's NFL into consideration when today's studs are up for the vote. He's certainly on pace to have a worthy resume, still plenty to go though to be a shoe in.
Dez Bryant also had similar numbers through five before falling off the rails in year six...lots go can go wrong.

 

[SteelersPride]

I gotta ask, only because I need clarification, as I'm seeing an inconsistency.
Your not high on AJ Brown becuase he's in such a run heavy offense..fair enough, I get it.
But your also down in Henry, even after, by leading the league in rushing, he proved the finish of '18 was no fluke. They jettisoned D. Lewis, only other Rb to speak of on the roster currently, is a 3rd round rookie who had very little hype on him coming out.
Henry is still the guy, virtually the only guy, in a rush heavy offense, one so run heavy that you don't like thier #1 WR much, so why still down in Henry? I don't get where those two takes coexist...are you predicting injury for Henry? Or are you thinking Evans steals the show?

i just merely think henry is due for some td regression, hes not used in the passe game..........That line needs to stay tip top IMHO......not to say henry wont get a massive workload......guys who get that many touches in a season almost always regress, doesnt mean hes useless.........but far less efficient..........

Because henry gets his touches, im down on all titans receiving options......

does that make sense.

Its merely henry will not be as good, but still get as many touches. Making both not as prosperous

 

[eaglesnut]

I'm with you on Mike Evans. I think all those Tampa Players are gonna improve in stats. I feel like Bruce brought Brady to air it out. I think Bruce will pass even more than normal with brady now. He is gonna get his money's worth out of Brady and Brady has something real to prove. He should be more hungry than ever to prove it was him that one all those super bowls and not belichick

Shhhhhhh...

 

[The Foot]

Shhhhhhh...

Sorry bout that

 

[Clayton]

I feel like Tampa really forced the action to Mike Evans last year. When he was good in fantasy its because he was targeted 15-17 times in a single game. I don't suspect that will be the case at all with Brady. I suspect its more likely we'll see a more consistent but maybe a less monstrous Evans.

 

[Barilko]

My choice of Evans has nothing to do with Evans himself
The guy is a stud receiver of that there is no doubt

i just do not see Brady airing it out very often he will use Gronk (while he is still standing) over the middle along with Godwin in the slot

Evans may score early (but im not convinced ol Tom can still chuck it deep)

Mr Evans wont have Winston firing it deep (anymore) as he did last year play after play

hell he would turn it over fall further behind and put it up once again... and at that over and over and over

not the same scenario this year..... of course who really knows...

 

[averagejoe]

TE- Waller. Again, not that I think he'll suck, he's just not gonna repeat his season last year. Between Ruggs, Bryan, Renfrow, Bowden, and T. Williams, theres just not the opportunities there were last year. Heck, Renfrow alone, coming on strong at the end of the year rendered him virtually useless. A low end TE1 at best.

Only because I own Waller in D2, I decided to look at Gruden's history.
This goes back to his time with Bucs (2002-2008), and then (Soundgarden ) Black Hole Bums (2018-2019).

2002 - 80 passes to TE led by Ken Dilger (48) for 60%
2003 - 67 passes to TE led by Ken Dilger (41) for 61%
2004 - 81 passes to TE led by Ken Dilger (55) for 68%
2005 - 87 passes to TE led by Alex Smith (61) for 70%
2006 - 82 passes to TE led by Alex Smith (53) for 64%
2007 - 81 passes to TE led by Alex Smith (53) for 65%
2008 - 118 passes to TE led by Jerramy Stevens (59) for 50%
2018 - 112 passes to TE led by Jared Cook (101) for 90%
2019 - 142 passes to TE led by Darren Waller (117) for 82%
========================================
Averages - 94.4 passes to TE, lead TE averages 65.3 targets for 69% (roughly 4 targets per game).

 

[TREFF]

Only because I own Waller in D2, I decided to look at Gruden's history.
This goes back to his time with Bucs (2002-2008), and then (Soundgarden ) Black Hole Bums (2018-2019).

2002 - 80 passes to TE led by Ken Dilger (48) for 60%
2003 - 67 passes to TE led by Ken Dilger (41) for 61%
2004 - 81 passes to TE led by Ken Dilger (55) for 68%
2005 - 87 passes to TE led by Alex Smith (61) for 70%
2006 - 82 passes to TE led by Alex Smith (53) for 64%
2007 - 81 passes to TE led by Alex Smith (53) for 65%
2008 - 118 passes to TE led by Jerramy Stevens (59) for 50%
2018 - 112 passes to TE led by Jared Cook (101) for 90%
2019 - 142 passes to TE led by Darren Waller (117) for 82%
========================================
Averages - 94.4 passes to TE, lead TE averages 65.3 targets for 69% (roughly 4 targets per game).

That 142 really stands out as an anomaly, don't it? Quite likely due to the utter lack of other decent targets, and not much the studliness of Waller?

 

[averagejoe]

That 142 really stands out as an anomaly, don't it? Quite likely due to the utter lack of other decent targets, and not much the studliness of Waller?

It does.
I dont expect to see that again.
But a better offense (weapons) might open up the lanes. Quality vs quantity.

 

[Chef99]

How does Marlon Mack fit in these days? Dang that RB position!

 

[TREFF]

How does Marlon Mack fit in these days? Dang that RB position!

Depends on Taylor being all that or not. I have my doubts, but then again. I never thought much of Mack to begin with, so Taylor may not have to be all that great

 

[SmokingMonkey]

How does Marlon Mack fit in these days? Dang that RB position!

Think it'll be a nightmare to predict unless someone gets injured or unless Taylor is head and shoulders above mack. it'll be split all year, why expose Taylor (your future) to unnecessary hits if mack can get it done and still on your payroll?

 

[SteelersPride]

Only because I own Waller in D2, I decided to look at Gruden's history.
This goes back to his time with Bucs (2002-2008), and then (Soundgarden ) Black Hole Bums (2018-2019).

2002 - 80 passes to TE led by Ken Dilger (48) for 60%
2003 - 67 passes to TE led by Ken Dilger (41) for 61%
2004 - 81 passes to TE led by Ken Dilger (55) for 68%
2005 - 87 passes to TE led by Alex Smith (61) for 70%
2006 - 82 passes to TE led by Alex Smith (53) for 64%
2007 - 81 passes to TE led by Alex Smith (53) for 65%
2008 - 118 passes to TE led by Jerramy Stevens (59) for 50%
2018 - 112 passes to TE led by Jared Cook (101) for 90%
2019 - 142 passes to TE led by Darren Waller (117) for 82%
========================================
Averages - 94.4 passes to TE, lead TE averages 65.3 targets for 69% (roughly 4 targets per game).

ew

 

[TKOSpikes]

That 142 really stands out as an anomaly, don't it? Quite likely due to the utter lack of other decent targets, and not much the studliness of Waller?

Not really. Consistent with the increase in talent level. Systems are one thing, but players aren't totally irrelevant. Waller is head and shoulders above those names...

 

[TKOSpikes]

How does Marlon Mack fit in these days? Dang that RB position!

Hard to see Mack being nothing. Taylor seems like a great fit though...

 

[TREFF]

Not really. Consistent with the increase in talent level. Systems are one thing, but players aren't totally irrelevant. Waller is head and shoulders above those names...

well if he was that good, where was he from '15-'18? I think its debatable as to wether he's truly better than Jared Cook. What's not debatable is he was quite literally the only decent receiving option for Carr most of the year. Tyrell was hobbled more often then he wasnt and even when he was good yo go, he's no scary threat, Zay Jones started 7 games..it was just awful.
Thier off season activity strongly suggests they plan on changing the passing game distribution, significantly. Maybe he still gets 100-115 targets, but he ain't getting 140+, not with the additions coming this year