Winners And Losers Of 2015 NHL Trade Deadline

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Tuukka Rask was a first round pick of the Leafs.

Oh, I guess that makes your point

Even then, he wasn't a "high first round pick". He went 21st I think.

 

[pixburgher66]

Methinks it'll be Hawks fans more inclined to want such action pretty soon...

Oh, they will. I outlined this with Cobie in the deadline thread (very much buried now), but...holy molasses they're in trouble. Kane/Toews account for $8M in raises next year! That alone could sink them. If the cap stays at $69, they're in deep shit. When I did those calculations it was before they made some minor moves, but they really didn't send out much in terms of money next year, so I'll assume they're still hovering around $65M with 9F, 4D, 2G signed, and Saad as an RFA. Big moves cometh. They'll need to add 4F, 3D worth of contracts. Doesn't even matter if they're all cheap younger guys, it's not possible without moving money for nothing.

 

[Cobiemonster]

Oh, they will. I outlined this with Cobie in the deadline thread (very much buried now), but...holy molasses they're in trouble. Kane/Toews account for $8M in raises next year! That alone could sink them. If the cap stays at $69, they're in deep shit. When I did those calculations it was before they made some minor moves, but they really didn't send out much in terms of money next year, so I'll assume they're still hovering around $65M with 9F, 4D, 2G signed, and Saad as an RFA. Big moves cometh. They'll need to add 4F, 3D worth of contracts. Doesn't even matter if they're all cheap younger guys, it's not possible without moving money for nothing.

Right now, they're at $63.926 and if the cap stays at $69, they'd have $5,074,000 in cap space to fill presumably 5 or 6 forwards(8 are under contract) and 3 or 4 d-men - if they move Patrick Sharp for just picks, that would put them at $10,974,000, but then Brandon Saad will get 4-5 million and that will put them right back in a tough spot again

I guess this is what happens when you win championships, but a lot of teams would take this over what they have right now

 

[pixburgher66]

Right now, they're at $63.926 and if the cap stays at $69, they'd have $5,074,000 in cap space to fill presumably 5 or 6 forwards(8 are under contract) and 3 or 4 d-men - if they move Patrick Sharp for just picks, that would put them at $10,974,000, but then Brandon Saad will get 4-5 million and that will put them right back in a tough spot again

I guess this is what happens when you win championships, but a lot of teams would take this over what they have right now

Yep. They did a bit of magic after their first Cup to get back where they needed to be, when they off-loaded a lot of guys like Buff, etc, but I don't think it's going to happen this time. Simply feels like they have to move both Hossa and Sharp if they plan to keep Saad. I mean, I'm a Pens fan and I've heard the whole "can't have two superstars taking up that kind of money" thing a lot, but I suppose they're a bit lucky because when they had to sign those two they were able to take less than what these two did. It's going to be really difficult for them next year, and potentially down the line as well if, again, the cap doesn't go up.

 

[forty_three]

But if the new guy you're paying is not good enough to be out there, what does it matter that he's playing? It's basically a sunk cost at that point.

They are already paying a few salaries of guys who aren't really good enough, injuries have put a lot of scrubs into too big roles. So this isn't all that different

I'm not happy about it, but if it doesn't put them in cap trouble, and helps the fuzzy math behind the scenes then I can tolerate it. For a while. I guess this year just has me numb.

I also read, and not sure how true it is, that after next season they can buy Clarkson out at a 2m/year hit. Right at the time that Murray, Jenner and Johansen will each come looking for their wheelbarrows full of cash. And paying someone 2m to not play is better than paying one 5.5m to not play. Ideal? Not even close, but you play the cards you're dealt.

And if there is a year for everything to go wrong and the bottom to fall out, we could do worse than this draft class. Look at the Colts. Lost their franchise player for a year. And they drafted a new one.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Yep. They did a bit of magic after their first Cup to get back where they needed to be, when they off-loaded a lot of guys like Buff, etc, but I don't think it's going to happen this time. Simply feels like they have to move both Hossa and Sharp if they plan to keep Saad. I mean, I'm a Pens fan and I've heard the whole "can't have two superstars taking up that kind of money" thing a lot, but I suppose they're a bit lucky because when they had to sign those two they were able to take less than what these two did. It's going to be really difficult for them next year, and potentially down the line as well if, again, the cap doesn't go up.

I can't see anybody taking Hossa. Chicago is probably going to suck for a couple years, suck meaning fighting for a playoff spot, but it's still worth it if it means keeping Toews and Kane.

 

[RaiderZar]

Based on Ben Smith's performance last night, I'd say the Sharkies are the hands-down winner...

 

[KennyBanyeah]

No internals?

The sense seems to be that Pierre Dorion isn't ready (or willing) to be "the guy" yet. I think Murray and Melnyk also think he's just flat out better suited to more hands-on scouting as well.

Can't really argue with that. He was the guy who apparently was primarily responsible for most of the CHL picks in recent years. Late round gems like Stone, Hoffman and Pageau are OK with me.

Shero has been seen in the Sens box a few times this year, hence the rumours.

 

[RP-29]

Oh, they will. I outlined this with Cobie in the deadline thread (very much buried now), but...holy molasses they're in trouble. Kane/Toews account for $8M in raises next year! That alone could sink them. If the cap stays at $69, they're in deep shit. When I did those calculations it was before they made some minor moves, but they really didn't send out much in terms of money next year, so I'll assume they're still hovering around $65M with 9F, 4D, 2G signed, and Saad as an RFA. Big moves cometh. They'll need to add 4F, 3D worth of contracts. Doesn't even matter if they're all cheap younger guys, it's not possible without moving money for nothing.

My cousin is a Hawks fan. The moment Toews and Kane signed their big contracts, I texted him "This is the beginning of the end."

One other not-yet-on-the-radar issue with the Hawks' cap woes is Seabrook's contract is up after next season. Depending on how next season plays out, the Hawks might be looking to trade Seabrook at the deadline next year for a bounty of draft picks and Seabrook is a guy every team in the league would ante up for.

It might be a fun deadline next year.

 

[pixburgher66]

I can't see anybody taking Hossa. Chicago is probably going to suck for a couple years, suck meaning fighting for a playoff spot, but it's still worth it if it means keeping Toews and Kane.

I agree. At the price he's at, and at the age, it'll be a hard sell. Not many teams will have the cap space to take him on without sending back salary. Buying cap space isn't possible...unless you're the Leafs.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

I agree. At the price he's at, and at the age, it'll be a hard sell. Not many teams will have the cap space to take him on without sending back salary. Buying cap space isn't possible...unless you're the Leafs.

He's a cap recapture candidate, too, which will basically scare off everybody. If the Hawks want him gone, it'll be buyout or nothing.

 

[pixburgher66]

My cousin is a Hawks fan. The moment Toews and Kane signed their big contracts, I texted him "This is the beginning of the end."

One other not-yet-on-the-radar issue with the Hawks' cap woes is Seabrook's contract is up after next season. Depending on how next season plays out, the Hawks might be looking to trade Seabrook at the deadline next year for a bounty of draft picks and Seabrook is a guy every team in the league would ante up for.

It might be a fun deadline next year.

It's going to be tough for them to balance making moves for the future vs. staying competitive. They're still, very obviously, a competitive team in the league, and while that exists it's hard to think about the future. They're going to be forced into that very soon.

 

[DragonfromTO]

They are already paying a few salaries of guys who aren't really good enough, injuries have put a lot of scrubs into too big roles. So this isn't all that different

I'm not happy about it, but if it doesn't put them in cap trouble, and helps the fuzzy math behind the scenes then I can tolerate it. For a while. I guess this year just has me numb.

I also read, and not sure how true it is, that after next season they can buy Clarkson out at a 2m/year hit. Right at the time that Murray, Jenner and Johansen will each come looking for their wheelbarrows full of cash. And paying someone 2m to not play is better than paying one 5.5m to not play. Ideal? Not even close, but you play the cards you're dealt.

And if there is a year for everything to go wrong and the bottom to fall out, we could do worse than this draft class. Look at the Colts. Lost their franchise player for a year. And they drafted a new one.

It's different though, because those scrubs aren't signed for the next 5 years as well.


Here's more on the problems with buying out the contract. Dellow's article is obviously no longer up, but I think it explains it well enough.

David Clarkson's Contract is Maybe, Probably Buyout-Proof - Pension Plan Puppets

 

[tducey]

Winner-Rangers
Loser-sharks

 

[Slimpikins]

I am assuming you're listing sharks as a loser for not moving any of their large contacts? I tend to agree but I think they'll have better luck in the off-season when teams have a bit more cap space to maneuver.

 

[David_son]

Come on Detroit!

I do like that the Devils have kept alive their streak of never making a trade with the Rangers alive, the only franchise they've never made a deal with.

Well why trade with the Devils when we can just sign their players away in FA you know when the players are starting to decline... That's how we do it in RangersLand

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Well why trade with the Devils when we can just sign their players away in FA you know when the players are starting to decline... That's how we do it in RangersLand

+1 Bobby Holik

 

[DonMan]

As of today, Buffalo is only 3 points worse than Edmonton and 4 points worse than Arizona. Conceivably, Sabres players could develop "Major League" syndrome and rally to win a few games despite management's best efforts to secure last place. All this tanking could actually net them the 4th pick in the draft if Arizona and Edmonton have more successful tanks and some other team wins the lottery.

Looking over the Sabres roster, between the trades and injuries there's only about 5 forwards that would be considered "NHL caliber". Factoring in the goalie situation as well, I expect the team to manage about 5 points over their remaining games. I'd be very surprised if they get more than 10.

 

[RP-29]

Looking over the Sabres roster, between the trades and injuries there's only about 5 forwards that would be considered "NHL caliber". Factoring in the goalie situation as well, I expect the team to manage about 5 points over their remaining games. I'd be very surprised if they get more than 10.

There's no doubt the Sabres are the leading candidate for the worst record, but just because they have less talent doesn't mean they're going to lose more games than other tankers. Hockey players are prideful men and they're all fighting for NHL jobs. I guarantee you'll see some strong efforts from some players that want to prove they belong, even if team management has already folded.

 

[forty_three]

The sunshine and lollipops brigade chimes in with their take on the Wiz trade:
The Dark Blue Jacket: Trade Deadline Fail....Or...

Interesting perspective, but it is a terrible idea to open an NHL roster spot in hopes of luring a guy who will be coming out of college after the Frozen Four. Reilly is having a solid year, but he is a guy who's had one top end year and no one knows if he will translate to the NHL.

And he has yet to sign with Columbus. If he's really that motivated to play in the NHL, you'd think he'd get his name on that ELC while in school. Sonny Milano is signed. I am not convinced Reilly wants to come here.

I think the picture caption explains a bit more about the trade than the speculation that they are opening a slot for Reilly.

"Jarmo finally gets rid of the other guy's players"


The good news is if the Ducks win the cup, then EVERYONE is going to want to do a deadline deal with the Jackets for years to come.