Will this team improve over last year's 7-9 record with Fitzpatrick?

[deanpet21]

@deanpet21 , this is my response to your question in the NFL forum. My previous posts in this thread were also on this topic. Posts #s 54, 56, 59. Beyond that, here are my thoughts both predraft and postdraft.

Predraft, these were my big picture thoughts, why we traded up this year—regardless of who we took:


Here are my thoughts after we drafted Lance:

Its very possible the 49ers don't make the playoffs this year and could be picking early to mid teens b/c of the strong division. i just didnt think this type of move should have been made so early in the process. Who knows if Lance would have fallen. Carolina wasn't picking a QB. You could of gotten Fields for alot less that is why you wait until the draft to make these moves. I think the Giants really screwed the Bears when they traded down b/c the Bears are awful and that 1st round pick next year is probably top 10.

Huge gamble. You guys didn't have to make this gamble. Plus you are getting a QB who is super raw and hasn't played any real college competition. They must be really unhappy with Grap to make this move.

 

[Skin'EmAll]

Skins whipped up on them 49ers last season.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

Its very possible the 49ers don't make the playoffs this year and could be picking early to mid teens b/c of the strong division. i just didnt think this type of move should have been made so early in the process. Who knows if Lance would have fallen. Carolina wasn't picking a QB. You could of gotten Fields for alot less that is why you wait until the draft to make these moves. I think the Giants really screwed the Bears when they traded down b/c the Bears are awful and that 1st round pick next year is probably top 10.

Huge gamble. You guys didn't have to make this gamble. Plus you are getting a QB who is super raw and hasn't played any real college competition. They must be really unhappy with Grap to make this move.

Whether the team makes the playoffs this season doesn't change the big picture calculus of whether to trade up this season or not. 12 was the highest the team will most likely be drafting in the next few years b/c it's highly unlikely that we suffer injuries like that again. So, for the reasons I explained earlier, if we were gonna trade up near the top for a QB, this was the year to do it.

The NFCW is very strong. However, despite suffering a shocking rash of injuries to our best players, we still went 3-3 in arguably the best division in the league last year--swept the Rams for the 2nd year in a row, split with Arizona, and lost to Seattle by 10 and 3. So, going 3-3 in the division this season looks like a worse case scenario. Considering how snake bit we were last year, the 9ers still won 6 games and lost 2 others by 3 points or less, so Vegas's 10.5 wins over/under on the Niners this year looks pretty reasonable, as anything between 9-7 and 12-4 wouldn't surprise me in the slightest.

As for whether it was necessary to move up to 3, the team reportedly explored the trade availability and cost of moving up to several different positions in the top 10. They weighed the cost against the need for certainty. Was it the right move? I don't know, but moving to 3 made certain they'd get their guy. Certainty is expensive. One can only say "eh, Fields would've been there at 10 or 11" with the benefit of hindsight.

Lance was BY FAR the riskiest QB to take. The highest ceiling, but the lowest floor. However, if he's the right guy, the cost will have been worth it. The team isn't unhappy with Grop, but over 3 years, he's missed the same number of games he's played. You can't count on a player like that. Since the team couldn't count on him to stay healthy, we were gonna get another starting QB. It was either do it this year or next yr and whether to draft, trade, or sign him. The kind of QB Shanny wanted is generally not available in FA or trade and we tried to trade for Rodgers. So that left us only one option.

 

[Rowdy]

Whether the team makes the playoffs this season doesn't change the big picture calculus of whether to trade up this season or not. 12 was the highest the team will most likely be drafting in the next few years b/c it's highly unlikely that we suffer injuries like that again. So, for the reasons I explained earlier, if we were gonna trade up near the top for a QB, this was the year to do it.

The NFCW is very strong. However, despite suffering a shocking rash of injuries to our best players, we still went 3-3 in arguably the best division in the league last year--swept the Rams for the 2nd year in a row, split with Arizona, and lost to Seattle by 10 and 3. So, going 3-3 in the division this season looks like a worse case scenario. Considering how snake bit we were last year, the 9ers still won 6 games and lost 2 others by 3 points or less, so Vegas's 10.5 wins over/under on the Niners this year looks pretty reasonable, as anything between 9-7 and 12-4 wouldn't surprise me in the slightest.

As for whether it was necessary to move up to 3, the team reportedly explored the trade availability and cost of moving up to several different positions in the top 10. They weighed the cost against the need for certainty. Was it the right move? I don't know, but moving to 3 made certain they'd get their guy. Certainty is expensive. One can only say "eh, Fields would've been there at 10 or 11" with the benefit of hindsight.

Lance was BY FAR the riskiest QB to take. The highest ceiling, but the lowest floor. However, if he's the right guy, the cost will have been worth it. The team isn't unhappy with Grop, but over 3 years, he's missed the same number of games he's played. You can't count on a player like that. Since the team couldn't count on him to stay healthy, we were gonna get another starting QB. It was either do it this year or next yr and whether to draft, trade, or sign him. The kind of QB Shanny wanted is generally not available in FA or trade and we tried to trade for Rodgers. So that left us only one option.

I think lance could end up being the josh Allen of this draft. BTW, always enjoy your input on this board. May not always agree, but respect your opinions

 

[deanpet21]

Whether the team makes the playoffs this season doesn't change the big picture calculus of whether to trade up this season or not. 12 was the highest the team will most likely be drafting in the next few years b/c it's highly unlikely that we suffer injuries like that again. So, for the reasons I explained earlier, if we were gonna trade up near the top for a QB, this was the year to do it.

The NFCW is very strong. However, despite suffering a shocking rash of injuries to our best players, we still went 3-3 in arguably the best division in the league last year--swept the Rams for the 2nd year in a row, split with Arizona, and lost to Seattle by 10 and 3. So, going 3-3 in the division this season looks like a worse case scenario. Considering how snake bit we were last year, the 9ers still won 6 games and lost 2 others by 3 points or less, so Vegas's 10.5 wins over/under on the Niners this year looks pretty reasonable, as anything between 9-7 and 12-4 wouldn't surprise me in the slightest.

As for whether it was necessary to move up to 3, the team reportedly explored the trade availability and cost of moving up to several different positions in the top 10. They weighed the cost against the need for certainty. Was it the right move? I don't know, but moving to 3 made certain they'd get their guy. Certainty is expensive. One can only say "eh, Fields would've been there at 10 or 11" with the benefit of hindsight.

Lance was BY FAR the riskiest QB to take. The highest ceiling, but the lowest floor. However, if he's the right guy, the cost will have been worth it. The team isn't unhappy with Grop, but over 3 years, he's missed the same number of games he's played. You can't count on a player like that. Since the team couldn't count on him to stay healthy, we were gonna get another starting QB. It was either do it this year or next yr and whether to draft, trade, or sign him. The kind of QB Shanny wanted is generally not available in FA or trade and we tried to trade for Rodgers. So that left us only one option.

But why not wait until the draft to make the trade? Carolina and Denver were not taking QB's. There was no way Washington was going to do another RG3 deal. The 49ers were biding against themselves. IF your team is so loaded with talent and your in win now mode, why not get a veteran QB who can win now for you? Is Lance that much of a better talent than Fields? Is Lance worth giving up two first round picks for? He would have to have a Mahomes type career to justify this trade. I just think they didnt have to get this drastic. One of the reasons why the Redskins did the RG3 trade b/c they needed a QB and had no one else on the roster to show this fanbase we could win. At that time the team wasnt as nearly as talented as the 49ers are now. The trade backfired and the 4th round pick Cousins is having a better career. The Rg3 injury ruined his career but that is football.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

But why not wait until the draft to make the trade? Carolina and Denver were not taking QB's. There was no way Washington was going to do another RG3 deal. The 49ers were biding against themselves.

Niner fans everywhere asked that same question. The logical answer was certainty. They knew who was going 1 and 2, so trading up before the draft ensured they got the pick of the remaining litter--their guy--while also foreclosing the possibility that on draft day, some other team might trade up ahead of them and take the QB they wanted.

Think about this. The Niners made the trade in late March. Within 10 days of the 9er trade the Panthers had shipped Bridgewater to Denver and brought Darnold in. Could be completely unrelated to the Niner trade, but the timing is suspicious. Why didn't the Panthers wait and make those moves on draft day? I think the answer is the same. Certainty. Notice also that before the draft, the Phins traded 12 (9ers pick) and a 2021 first rounder to move up to 6. Why didn't they wait until draft day?

It wasn't a bidding against themselves issue or anyone else issue--according to reports, the Niners made an offer, the Phins wanted an extra 3rd (b/c they wanted to still have a future 1 and something extra after they executed their plan to move back up from 12), and Lynch thought it over for a day or 2 and then accepted.

IF your team is so loaded with talent and your in win now mode, why not get a veteran QB who can win now for you?

As for veteran QBs, You have to be kidding. The Niners have a veteran QB and with him, the 9ers nearly won the SB 2 years ago. So bringing in a different vet QB made no sense unless they were obtainable and significantly better than Grop's best season--so Dalton, Cam, Bridgewater, etc. were out, Watson's legal problems took him out, Brees/Brady weren't gonna leave their teams, Rivers was washed up, and teams aren't going to trade Rodgers or Wilson within the conference, let alone the division (and we tried to get Rodgers, LOL). That really only left Matt Ryan. So, I think that's a dead end.

The coaches know that if Grop is healthy, we'll probably make the playoffs. Getting a younger player gives Shanny the best of both worlds--a win now season with Grop (who has every incentive to play well) while also developing a high draft pick at the same time so that we don't have to rely on Grop's shaky health beyond this season.

Is Lance that much of a better talent than Fields? Is Lance worth giving up two first round picks for? He would have to have a Mahomes type career to justify this trade. I just think they didnt have to get this drastic. One of the reasons why the Redskins did the RG3 trade b/c they needed a QB and had no one else on the roster to show this fanbase we could win. At that time the team wasnt as nearly as talented as the 49ers are now. The trade backfired and the 4th round pick Cousins is having a better career. The Rg3 injury ruined his career but that is football.

I don't know if Lance is better than Fields, but the Niner FO sure thinks so. I've said for months that I had no idea who we were taking or even who the pick should be. I'm just happy we didn't move up that far to get Mac Jones.

If Lance ends up making pro bowls, neither the Niner FO nor the fans will care about the extra picks we spent to get him. And that price wasn't outside the bounds of other QB trades--compare it to the RG3 trade, the Eagles trade up for Wentz, or the price the Rams paid for Stafford.

Lance is landing in a very good situation for a young QB, but who knows? If Lance doesn't succeed, Shanny and Lynch will probably be looking for work after the 2023 season.

 

[Sportster 72]

My take on the 9ers drafting Lance:

I thought Jones fit Kyle well ... yes, somewhat in the mold of Cousins. It did not make sense to trade up to #3 to get Jones though.

Reflecting after the draft and thinking back to 2012 I wonder if Kyle felt like he was getting a coachable Griffin. Kyle was the first one to use the read option heavily in the NFL and it was a success. Maybe he is thinking he can do something similar with Lance. I still think Lance needs work but the kid seems to want to work. Of course I remember Haskin's sitting down with Gerry DiNardo and doing a film session (pre-draft) and DiNardo raving about Haskin's work ethic and play knowledge. <eyeroll> Much like I thought it was a great benefit for Mahome's to go to KC and get coached by Andy it might be very fortunate for Lance to be going to San Fran and get coached by Kyle.

I think Mac Jones is going to light it up with Belichek. Maybe not from game 1 but when he gets his chance I think he will be a stud.

Jones and Lance were fortunate to go where they did. Not so much for Lawrence, Wilson and Fields ... we will see.

 

[skinsdad62]

the 49ers moved up to get their pick of the qb litter . they have a great team in place and needed a guy to be the final piece . its what they should have done .

i expect it will work out as well

 

[rmilia1]

Fitz was a weird signing fir a team that really just needs a QB to manage the game and not put the D in bad spots . He's had a nice career but he's a bit of a gunslinger . It could work out but his history tells us if he plays a full season he's going to lose you more games than he wins you . I just feel like there were better more safe options out there

 

[chillerdab]

Fitz was a weird signing fir a team that really just needs a QB to manage the game and not put the D in bad spots . He's had a nice career but he's a bit of a gunslinger . It could work out but his history tells us if he plays a full season he's going to lose you more games than he wins you . I just feel like there were better more safe options out there

I cant argue with this. I just wonder who else they could have gotten that is better, that wouldnt have cost an arm or a leg, or draft picks, or both.

is Darnold better? Is Bridgewater? Goff, Wentz, Stafford cost a lot. Watson is in trouble with the law. Newton?

Rivera probably looked at the class of free agents and said that he needed somebody to be able to throw the ball downfield, to keep the defenses honest. After all Heinecke ran the offense most efficiently during the playoff game vs the Bucs.

Of all of the above-mentioed qb’s, Fitz is the only one who wouldnt cost as much who you know could sling it.

 

[gkekoa]

Fitz was a weird signing fir a team that really just needs a QB to manage the game and not put the D in bad spots . He's had a nice career but he's a bit of a gunslinger . It could work out but his history tells us if he plays a full season he's going to lose you more games than he wins you . I just feel like there were better more safe options out there

Actually, if you look at the teams he has been on with a legit defense, he wins.

 

[chillerdab]

Actually, if you look at the teams he has been on with a legit defense, he wins.

Honest question: has he actually been on a team with a decent defense?
Certainly he’s smart enough to realize when he SHOULD protect a lead, being educated at Haaaahhhhhhhvaahhhhhd....

 

[gkekoa]

Honest question: has he actually been on a team with a decent defense?
Certainly he’s smart enough to realize when he SHOULD protect a lead, being educated at Haaaahhhhhhhvaahhhhhd....

2015 NYJ

Miami 2020

 

[deanpet21]

Niner fans everywhere asked that same question. The logical answer was certainty. They knew who was going 1 and 2, so trading up before the draft ensured they got the pick of the remaining litter--their guy--while also foreclosing the possibility that on draft day, some other team might trade up ahead of them and take the QB they wanted.

Think about this. The Niners made the trade in late March. Within 10 days of the 9er trade the Panthers had shipped Bridgewater to Denver and brought Darnold in. Could be completely unrelated to the Niner trade, but the timing is suspicious. Why didn't the Panthers wait and make those moves on draft day? I think the answer is the same. Certainty. Notice also that before the draft, the Phins traded 12 (9ers pick) and a 2021 first rounder to move up to 6. Why didn't they wait until draft day?

It wasn't a bidding against themselves issue or anyone else issue--according to reports, the Niners made an offer, the Phins wanted an extra 3rd (b/c they wanted to still have a future 1 and something extra after they executed their plan to move back up from 12), and Lynch thought it over for a day or 2 and then accepted.

As for veteran QBs, You have to be kidding. The Niners have a veteran QB and with him, the 9ers nearly won the SB 2 years ago. So bringing in a different vet QB made no sense unless they were obtainable and significantly better than Grop's best season--so Dalton, Cam, Bridgewater, etc. were out, Watson's legal problems took him out, Brees/Brady weren't gonna leave their teams, Rivers was washed up, and teams aren't going to trade Rodgers or Wilson within the conference, let alone the division (and we tried to get Rodgers, LOL). That really only left Matt Ryan. So, I think that's a dead end.

The coaches know that if Grop is healthy, we'll probably make the playoffs. Getting a younger player gives Shanny the best of both worlds--a win now season with Grop (who has every incentive to play well) while also developing a high draft pick at the same time so that we don't have to rely on Grop's shaky health beyond this season.

I don't know if Lance is better than Fields, but the Niner FO sure thinks so. I've said for months that I had no idea who we were taking or even who the pick should be. I'm just happy we didn't move up that far to get Mac Jones.

If Lance ends up making pro bowls, neither the Niner FO nor the fans will care about the extra picks we spent to get him. And that price wasn't outside the bounds of other QB trades--compare it to the RG3 trade, the Eagles trade up for Wentz, or the price the Rams paid for Stafford.

Lance is landing in a very good situation for a young QB, but who knows? If Lance doesn't succeed, Shanny and Lynch will probably be looking for work after the 2023 season.

Of course they were bidding against themselves. No other team was going to move to 3. Phins baited them. There was no way in hell there was a bidding war for Lance. cmon now. There was a bidding war for RG3 with Cleveland. Rumors were Cle offered more.

The other huge smoke screen was mac Jones going to #3. He ended up going 15. No teams wanted to trade up for him. Dolphins and Giants made out like bandits in this draft. No one is talking about it.

 

[deanpet21]

Niner fans everywhere asked that same question. The logical answer was certainty. They knew who was going 1 and 2, so trading up before the draft ensured they got the pick of the remaining litter--their guy--while also foreclosing the possibility that on draft day, some other team might trade up ahead of them and take the QB they wanted.

Think about this. The Niners made the trade in late March. Within 10 days of the 9er trade the Panthers had shipped Bridgewater to Denver and brought Darnold in. Could be completely unrelated to the Niner trade, but the timing is suspicious. Why didn't the Panthers wait and make those moves on draft day? I think the answer is the same. Certainty. Notice also that before the draft, the Phins traded 12 (9ers pick) and a 2021 first rounder to move up to 6. Why didn't they wait until draft day?

It wasn't a bidding against themselves issue or anyone else issue--according to reports, the Niners made an offer, the Phins wanted an extra 3rd (b/c they wanted to still have a future 1 and something extra after they executed their plan to move back up from 12), and Lynch thought it over for a day or 2 and then accepted.

As for veteran QBs, You have to be kidding. The Niners have a veteran QB and with him, the 9ers nearly won the SB 2 years ago. So bringing in a different vet QB made no sense unless they were obtainable and significantly better than Grop's best season--so Dalton, Cam, Bridgewater, etc. were out, Watson's legal problems took him out, Brees/Brady weren't gonna leave their teams, Rivers was washed up, and teams aren't going to trade Rodgers or Wilson within the conference, let alone the division (and we tried to get Rodgers, LOL). That really only left Matt Ryan. So, I think that's a dead end.

The coaches know that if Grop is healthy, we'll probably make the playoffs. Getting a younger player gives Shanny the best of both worlds--a win now season with Grop (who has every incentive to play well) while also developing a high draft pick at the same time so that we don't have to rely on Grop's shaky health beyond this season.

I don't know if Lance is better than Fields, but the Niner FO sure thinks so. I've said for months that I had no idea who we were taking or even who the pick should be. I'm just happy we didn't move up that far to get Mac Jones.

If Lance ends up making pro bowls, neither the Niner FO nor the fans will care about the extra picks we spent to get him. And that price wasn't outside the bounds of other QB trades--compare it to the RG3 trade, the Eagles trade up for Wentz, or the price the Rams paid for Stafford.

Lance is landing in a very good situation for a young QB, but who knows? If Lance doesn't succeed, Shanny and Lynch will probably be looking for work after the 2023 season.

Of course they were bidding against themselves. No other team was going to move to 3. Phins baited them. There was no way in hell there was a bidding war for Lance. cmon now. There was a bidding war for RG3 with Cleveland. Rumors were Cle offered more.

The other huge smoke screen was mac Jones going to #3. He ended up going 15. No teams wanted to trade up for him. Dolphins and Giants made out like bandits in this draft. No one is talking about it.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

Of course they were bidding against themselves. No other team was going to move to 3. Phins baited them. There was no way in hell there was a bidding war for Lance. cmon now. There was a bidding war for RG3 with Cleveland. Rumors were Cle offered more.

The other huge smoke screen was mac Jones going to #3. He ended up going 15. No teams wanted to trade up for him. Dolphins and Giants made out like bandits in this draft. No one is talking about it.

I think you're missing the point. No one said there was a bidding war for the 3 spot. By your definition, in the absence of a bidding war, every trade is bidding against yourself. The Niners made a strong offer, the Phins countered with an extra 2022 third and the Niners accepted. If you call that bidding against yourself, You and I will have to disagree on what that phrase means.

I honestly wonder if Shanny didn't use his friend Chris Simms to help the Mac Jones rumors along. Most Niner fans were very unhappy with the idea that we'd trade up for Jones. I loved what the Giants did in moving down--the Eagles stole the WR they wanted, but they made a great move by moving down and nabbing the Bears 2022 first rounder, which is gonna be somewhere in the top half of the round, if not the top 10. In the Gen NFL forum, the NYG got lots of props for it (except for Bears fans). The Phins have played the last couple of years pretty well with ownership being patient, the FO getting their QB in Tua and stockpiling high picks, and the coaches getting good development from their young players. To top it all off, for a while last year, it looked like the Phins were gonna make the playoffs with Fitz at the helm!

 

[skinsdad62]

I think you're missing the point. No one said there was a bidding war for the 3 spot. By your definition, in the absence of a bidding war, every trade is bidding against yourself. The Niners made a strong offer, the Phins countered with an extra 2022 third and the Niners accepted. If you call that bidding against yourself, You and I will have to disagree on what that phrase means.

I honestly wonder if Shanny didn't use his friend Chris Simms to help the Mac Jones rumors along. Most Niner fans were very unhappy with the idea that we'd trade up for Jones. I loved what the Giants did in moving down--the Eagles stole the WR they wanted, but they made a great move by moving down and nabbing the Bears 2022 first rounder, which is gonna be somewhere in the top half of the round, if not the top 10. In the Gen NFL forum, the NYG got lots of props for it (except for Bears fans). The Phins have played the last couple of years pretty well with ownership being patient, the FO getting their QB in Tua and stockpiling high picks, and the coaches getting good development from their young players. To top it all off, for a while last year, it looked like the Phins were gonna make the playoffs with Fitz at the helm!

Yeah I don’t get the bidding against themselves mantra , you made an offer they countered ,you accepted seems pretty straight forward

 

[kbso83432]

Yes. At first glance 9-8.

 

[DJ]

9-7

 

[Rowdy]

9-7

I’ll bet you they don’t go 9-7