Will the playoffs have an effect on the SEC dominance?

[Codaxx]

That's what I thought. Your 4 "pieces of data" DO NOT show what you think. Alabama is #1 in one category, "Number of games against teams with D1A winning records." That is "Number of games against teams with D1A winning records. Thus, FCS teams are NOT included!

-
Still holds. Not like all FBS schools that win 8 are equal. It is just a bad methodology. Not to mention that is going to pump up teams that frequently play FCS schools. You are essentially taking out their worse OOC game. If you take out the worst game for every team, I will bet it changes the numbers significantly.

 

[Gator]

-
Still holds. Not like all FBS schools that win 8 are equal. It is just a bad methodology. Not to mention that is going to pump up teams that frequently play FCS schools. You are essentially taking out there worse OCC game. If you take out the worst game for every team, I will be it changes the numbers significantly.

Yes, that's why I provided several sets of data. But, Alabama has the HIGHEST number of D1A opponents with winning records and the number of FCS opponents will have NO bearing on this total. This sort of gets back to the point Spurrier was making. Teams for non-major conferences and FCS CAN be as good or better than the lower members of major conferences (i.e., majors with losing records).

 

[Codaxx]

Yes, that's why I provided several sets of data. But, Alabama has the HIGHEST number of D1A opponents with winning records and the number of FCS opponents will have NO bearing on this total. This sort of gets back to the point Spurrier was making. Teams for non-major conferences and FCS CAN be as good or better than the lower members of major conferences (i.e., majors with losing records).

They can be as good, but those are the exceptions to the rule. The FCS opponents do not have bearing on Bama's D1 opponents, but it is absolutely has bearing on their strength of SOS. Using 50-75% of the OOC games is obviously flawed.

 

[Gator]

They can be as good, but those are the exceptions to the rule. The FCS opponents do not have bearing on Bama's D1 opponents, but it is absolutely has bearing on their strength of SOS. Using 50-75% of the OOC games is obviously flawed.

Not necessarily flawed. Remember, those 3 or 4 OOC games make-up only 23-33% of the entire non-bowl schedule. Simple math says that 67-77% is larger and therefore more important than 23-33%. Why not focus on the STRENTH of schedule (i.e., the good teams on the schedule) instead of focusing on the low end? If a team plays a 12 game schedule which includes 9 teams ranked in the top 15 and 3 FCS teams would, in my opinion, play a tougher schedule than one that plays 12 BCS teams that are 7-5 and 6-6. You would disqualify the team that played 3 FCS teams. I just don't get it.

 

[Codaxx]

Not necessarily flawed. Remember, those 3 or 4 OOC games make-up only 23-33% of the entire non-bowl schedule. Simple math says that 67-77% is larger and therefore more important than 23-33%. Why not focus on the STRENTH of schedule (i.e., the good teams on the schedule) instead of focusing on the low end? If a team plays a 12 game schedule which includes 9 teams ranked in the top 15 and 3 FCS teams would, in my opinion, play a tougher schedule than one that plays 12 BCS teams that are 7-5 and 6-6. You would disqualify the team that played 3 FCS teams. I just don't get it.

-
because the original post was on OOC scheduling. If you want to talk overall SOS that is a different conversation. It is all about averages. One team plays 2 games, those teams are ranked 28th and 30th. Team 2 plays #15 and FCS school. Team 1 played a harder schedule with an average ranking of 29th. The other team will average well outside the top 50. I am not disqualifying FCS teams, that was what you were doing. I am simply saying you need to factor in playing the 100-200th best team in the country when you are comparing schedules.

 

[Tin Man]

Iowa can suck their way through their schedule, come through it as bowl eligible, and play well in their bowl game. Consistently, Iowa plays well in bowl games.

 

[Gator]

-
because the original post was on OOC scheduling.

Have you read the title of this read (as in "the original post"? It is "Will the playoffs have an effect on the SEC dominance?". OOC scheduling was brought up as one perceived liability for certain teams in the SEC in the OP mind. I broadened it as the committee CAN NOT USE IT as teams like ND either don't have any or have 4 times as many as anyone else (depending on ones view. The committee will have to consider ALL of the schedule and NOT just 3-4 games.
http://www.sportshoopla.com/forums/...ct-sec-dominance-post5323281.html#post5323281

If you want to talk overall SOS that is a different conversation. It is all about averages. One team plays 2 games, those teams are ranked 28th and 30th. Team 2 plays #15 and FCS school. Team 1 played a harder schedule with an average ranking of 29th. The other team will average well outside the top 50. I am not disqualifying FCS teams, that was what you were doing. I am simply saying you need to factor in playing the 100-200th best team in the country when you are comparing schedules.

SOS is difficult to calculate but it surely IS NOT calculated as a simple average as you want. Suppose we assume the "quality" of the teams to be normally distributed. Then, the difference in quality between team #1 ( +3 sigma) and team 5 (+2 sigma) is as large as the difference in "quality" between team #50 (average) and team number 16 (+1 sigma). Wouldn't playing team #1 and team #50 (simple average of 25.5) would be approximately equal to playing team #5 and team #16 (simple average of 10.5)?

 

[Codaxx]

Have you read the title of this read (as in "the original post"? It is "Will the playoffs have an effect on the SEC dominance?". OOC scheduling was brought up as one perceived liability for certain teams in the SEC in the OP mind. I broadened it as the committee CAN NOT USE IT as teams like ND either don't have any or have 4 times as many as anyone else (depending on ones view. The committee will have to consider ALL of the schedule and NOT just 3-4 games.




SOS is difficult to calculate but it surely IS NOT calculated as a simple average as you want. Suppose we assume the "quality" of the teams to be normally distributed. Then, the difference in quality between team #1 ( +3 sigma) and team 5 (+2 sigma) is as large as the difference in "quality" between team #50 (average) and team number 16 (+1 sigma). Wouldn't playing team #1 and team #50 (simple average of 25.5) would be approximately equal to playing team #5 and team #16 (simple average of 10.5)?

You are over thinking. For the record its basically (2*opponents record + opponents opponents record)/3..
Again your analysis disregards poor opponents. There is no reason to compare SOS usign only a portion of the games. I think we have beaten the horse enough. Let just agree to dsagree.

 

[Gator]

You are over thinking. For the record its basically (2*opponents record + opponents opponents record)/3..
Again your analysis disregards poor opponents. There is no reason to compare SOS usign only a portion of the games. I think we have beaten the horse enough. Let just agree to dsagree.

The old BCS "formula" was 2/3* opponents records + 1/3 * opponents opponents records. But that works only for FBS teams and ignores FCS opponents. How do you include FCS opponents?

You folks need to get off your high horses about playing FCS schools. Last year Texas played Kansas in conference and New Mexico State OOC. In your eyes these are legit teams since they are FBS teams. Sagarin has 21 FCS schools rated ahead of Kansas (#119) and 72 FCS schools rated ahead of NMSU (#191). The lowest rated FBS team is Miami of Ohio at 224 with 99 FCS schools rated above them. The lowest rated BCS school is Purdue at 157 with 46 FCS teams rated higher. Some FCS schools had notable wins over FBS teams including North Dakota State at #17 (an FCS school that beat KSU) and Georgia Southern at #148 (an FCS school that beat Florida).

 

[HammerDown]

 

[4down20]

where does it get Stanford #1 with computers?

 

[iowajerms]

I don't think it will affect their credibility of the past. What happened has happened.

For the future, if they do what they have done this past decade, it will make them even more credible. If they do far worse in the NCG, then I think the SEC will be less credible.

 

[Codaxx]

The old BCS "formula" was 2/3* opponents records + 1/3 * opponents opponents records. But that works only for FBS teams and ignores FCS opponents. How do you include FCS opponents?

You folks need to get off your high horses about playing FCS schools. Last year Texas played Kansas in conference and New Mexico State OOC. In your eyes these are legit teams since they are FBS teams. Sagarin has 21 FCS schools rated ahead of Kansas (#119) and 72 FCS schools rated ahead of NMSU (#191). The lowest rated FBS team is Miami of Ohio at 224 with 99 FCS schools rated above them. The lowest rated BCS school is Purdue at 157 with 46 FCS teams rated higher. Some FCS schools had notable wins over FBS teams including North Dakota State at #17 (an FCS school that beat KSU) and Georgia Southern at #148 (an FCS school that beat Florida).

THere are always upsets and special teams. Exceptions do not prove the rule. I think it is quite fair to say that in the large majority of cases that FCS teams are inferior to FBS schools. Those extra scholarships tend to help. I am also quite skeptical of Sagarin's work on FCS schools. I think he can do a solid job comparing FCS schools to each other, but the limited interaction between FCS and FBS make it quite difficult to compare the 2 to each other. Georgia Southern beating Florida was a big upset and widely covered in sports media. Keep in mind this was a Florida team that lost its last 7 games and was ravaged by injuries. Basically FCS team beats a fading injury riddled team. Does that prove anything other than Georgia Southern was better on that day? Keep in mind Sagarin had Florida ranked 53rd and Georgia Southern ranked 148th, so your own proof gives evidence that even a bad FBS team is better than a good FCS team.

 

[Jonny Valtimore]

The SEC will struggle to have any team with 1 loss or fewer. Most likely that only affords them one spot in the playoff.

Not that the conference is down, so to speak, but there isn't one team that is dramatically better than any others this year, like last year.

The problem for other conferences is that the media is still on the SEC train so hard that guys like Tim Brando, who now covers Big 12 and PAC 12, can't go 3 minutes without sucking that SEC D. It's gotten to the point where even when SEC teams lose, it's because the other SEC team is so great. No other conference benefits in this way, and while the SEC deserves credit for the incredible run of titles, it has no question been an unfair advantage.

The playoff, in my opinion, will help even the playing field.

 

[ElTexan]

What SEC dominance?

They played Chokelahoma and Chokehio State, played THEMSELVES in rematches, played Texas without Colt and still almost lost, played the only other team that gets hyped way too much like they do: ND, played in the NCG even after losing 2 games... I guess that Oregon win was nice...

 

[dennis580]

To answer your question, the ESPN / ABC / Disney propoganda machine is in full force. No SEC champion will ever be left out of the 4 team playoff. I don't care if they play cupcake U for all their out of conference games. I'm more worried about them getting all 4 spots! By the way you should check your facts before posting. LSU plays a power 5 conference team every year to begin the season or at least they have been lately. Georgia had OSU with a home and home and USCe has Clemson every year. Tenn is playing at OU this season. Most teams in the SEC have caught on to the fact you need another power 5 conference team on your schedule. A few like A&M are the exceptions but I think their schedule got screwed up with the move to the SEC.

A 3 loss SEC champion would be left out without any question. Also in most situations the committee takes a 1 loss SEC team over a 2 loss SEC champion.

 

[4down20]

What SEC dominance?

They played Chokelahoma and Chokehio State, played THEMSELVES in rematches, played Texas without Colt and still almost lost, played the only other team that gets hyped way too much like they do: ND, played in the NCG even after losing 2 games... I guess that Oregon win was nice...

It's the fault of the SEC that was the best the rest of the college football world could muster up?

Nice logic. "The SEC wasn't dominate because the best teams we could find to play them sucked".

 

[ElTexan]

It's the fault of the SEC that was the best the rest of the college football world could muster up?

Nice logic. "The SEC wasn't dominate because the best teams we could find to play them sucked".

More like, they kept elevating crappy teams that choke in bowls, they picked OU over texas in 08, Colt got hurt in '09... and most importantly, and i'll spell it out since you can't seem to understand: they kept putting SEC teams in the NCG ALL THE TIME... even when they lost, even when it was a rematch, even when they lost TWICE... heck, put the Pac10 teams in there every damn year and feed patsies, and their record for A ONE GAME PLAYOFF would look good, too.

also: "DOMINANT," you truck.

 

[TigerBait1971]

More like, they kept elevating crappy teams that choke in bowls, they picked OU over texas in 08, Colt got hurt in '09... and most importantly, and i'll spell it out since you can't seem to understand: they kept putting SEC teams in the NCG ALL THE TIME... even when they lost, even when it was a rematch, even when they lost TWICE... heck, put the Pac10 teams in there every damn year and feed patsies, and their record for A ONE GAME PLAYOFF would look good, too.

also: "DOMINANT," you truck.

shouldn't you be cutting my grass, hesse?

 

[4down20]

More like, they kept elevating crappy teams that choke in bowls, they picked OU over texas in 08, Colt got hurt in '09... and most importantly, and i'll spell it out since you can't seem to understand: they kept putting SEC teams in the NCG ALL THE TIME... even when they lost, even when it was a rematch, even when they lost TWICE... heck, put the Pac10 teams in there every damn year and feed patsies, and their record for A ONE GAME PLAYOFF would look good, too.

also: "DOMINANT," you truck.

Well thank you college football for elevating crappy teams for the SEC.

You are going to go spelling Nazi on me when you can't even complete a sentence properly?



Putz