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From ESPN Insider:
The 2013-14 Blackhawks will be an absolutely fascinating team. Because if there's one thing we know with a near certainty, it's that championship teams don't repeat during the salary cap era. It's just too hard.
Sometimes it's because you have to purge half your roster because of the salary cap, as Chicago did after winning it all in 2010. Or you get away from the consistent style of play that made you great, as the Bruins occasionally did after winning the Cup in 2011. Or you run into a gauntlet of a playoff road like the Kings hit last year against the Blues, Sharks and Blackhawks.
A summer of celebrating, mixed in with incredible parity and the likelihood that the fortunate bounces that are a requirement of a Stanley Cup championship won't happen in consecutive seasons means we haven't seen back-to-back champs since the Red Wings in 1996-97 and 1997-98. But this Blackhawks team may just be the one best poised to do it in recent memory.
Why Chicago will repeat as champions
1. Crawford back in net
In awarding Corey Crawford with a six-year, $36 million contract after he led the Blackhawks to a Stanley Cup, GM Stan Bowman erased one of the potential distractions from the coming season and was able to do something he couldn't the last time his team won it all: bring back the starting goalie. "The one thing we do know is we're going to have a great goaltender," Bowman said while talking about some of the uncertainties moving forward. "That's why this was an easy decision for us."
2. Returning stars
Without discounting the loss of Dave Bolland, Michael Frolik and Viktor Stalberg, the Blackhawks brought back nearly every critical player who contributed to the Cup win. They have high-end skill up front rivaled only by the Penguins and the kind of depth on defense needed to succeed in the playoffs. Bowman found the cap room to give Bryan Bickell a raise and structured this team in a way that didn't require an immediate dismantling like last time. "You have to plan this out three years in advance to be able to orchestrate it," Bowman explained during Monday's conference call. "We kept a majority of this group together."
3. Weak division
Not that they needed it, but the Blackhawks got a break in realignment with the move of their rival Red Wings to the Atlantic Division and the new playoff structure. Of the teams in the Central, only the Blues can really be classified as legitimate Stanley Cup contenders. The Wild are getting closer. The Predators, Stars, Jets and Avalanche are all improving teams capable of making the playoffs. But Chicago remains the clear class of that division, an advantage that becomes bigger with the new divisional playoff format. The new playoff format also eliminates early grueling travel possibilities in the playoffs that might have tripped up a centrally located Western Conference team such as Chicago.
It all doesn't guarantee anything. Recent history suggests that even those positives won't be enough.
Why Chicago won't repeat as champions
1. Too much fatigue
On the day his contract extension was announced, Crawford was enjoying his time with the Stanley Cup, a celebration of last season that is dangerously close to this season. "At one point, I'm going to have to shut it off and do it all over again," Crawford said during a conference call with reporters Monday afternoon. "I think we're prepared to do it all again."
While Crawford is still waiting for that point to come, players around the league have been preparing all summer for the coming season rather than turning the page on last year. It's all part of the Cup hangover, a reality that these Blackhawks know as well as any team. With its condensed schedule and a Stanley Cup finals played well into June, last year was one of the more challenging seasons. This year isn't much easier.
The Olympics mean another condensed schedule, and the Blackhawks are loaded with players expected to participate in that tournament too -- at the very least Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa and Duncan Keith. It's also quite possible that Crawford, Patrick Sharp, Niklas Hjalmarsson, Brent Seabrook and Brandon Saad could make their respective nations' rosters as well. It's reasonable to expect this team to be gassed by the time the 2014 Stanley Cup playoffs roll around.
2. Injury problems
Sure, Marian Hossa couldn't feel one of his legs while lifting the Stanley Cup, but for the most part the Blackhawks were pretty healthy last spring. Most Stanley Cup champs are. When things are so tight competitively, losing one player can change the entire dynamic of a series. Just look at how the loss of Gregory Campbell impacted the Bruins or how much Patrice Bergeron sacrificed just to stay in the lineup. The Kings were a dominant team when they won the Cup, but the removal of Willie Mitchell from the defense upset the balance last season. One guy can make the difference.
For Chicago, we saw the opposite happen when Bowman added Johnny Oduya into the mix. It slotted the Blackhawks defensemen into the right spots and made a huge difference with the Chicago blue line. True depth was one of the casualties of the salary cap, and even though the Blackhawks are deeper than most teams, they aren't immune to injuries.
3. A Crawford regression
There was quick criticism of Crawford's deal when the numbers circulated, and there's no denying that six years is a lot of term for any goalie. Bowman is just dealing in a reality in which successful goalies are getting paid numbers comparable to what Crawford earned. Jimmy Howard got a six-year deal worth $31.8 million. Mike Smith got a six-year deal worth $34 million. Tuukka Rask got an eight-year deal worth $56 million.
You may like one or all of them better than Crawford, but he has something they don't in a Stanley Cup -- Rask backed up Tim Thomas during the Bruins' Cup run in 2011 -- and earned it with a .932 save percentage in the playoffs last year. Even after his supposed glove-side weakness was exposed, he stopped 47 of the next 50 Bruins shots to win it all. That can't be ignored. But we also can't completely overlook his 2011-12 season in which he had a .903 save percentage and 2.72 goals-against average.
If that Crawford resurfaces, this deal looks horrible, and the chances of a repeat drop dramatically. A more likely scenario is production somewhere closer to his career averages -- a .913 save percentage in the regular season and .924 in the playoffs. With the team he has in front of him, that's good enough to keep winning.
4. Underperforming youth
Bowman mentioned Monday that he purposefully created openings for some of the prospects in the Chicago system to make the team this year, a necessity in the cap world. "We put a premium on draft choices and making sure we have strong young players," Bowman said. "We talked a lot about having confidence in our young players and knowing some of them will emerge over the next month and tell us they're ready for the job. The important thing for us is we're going to put those guys in position to succeed."
That's always the plan in August and September, but there's risk that comes with transitioning from veterans such as Bolland, Frolik and Stalberg to unproven young players. One of Chicago's strengths last season was its penalty kill, so you can't completely dismiss the departure of Frolik, who paired up with Marcus Kruger so effectively on the Blackhawks PK.
The possibility of a sophomore slump from Saad isn't out of the question either. He had 27 points in 46 games, but the talented forward saw that production drop to only one goal in 23 playoff games. Like any 20-year-old, he's going to have bouts of inconsistency and Bowman points out that the roster around Chicago's youth should help cover up any growing pains. "We're not going to ask these young players to carry the team," he said. "We're going to ask them to fit in."
The 2013-14 Blackhawks will be an absolutely fascinating team. Because if there's one thing we know with a near certainty, it's that championship teams don't repeat during the salary cap era. It's just too hard.
Sometimes it's because you have to purge half your roster because of the salary cap, as Chicago did after winning it all in 2010. Or you get away from the consistent style of play that made you great, as the Bruins occasionally did after winning the Cup in 2011. Or you run into a gauntlet of a playoff road like the Kings hit last year against the Blues, Sharks and Blackhawks.
A summer of celebrating, mixed in with incredible parity and the likelihood that the fortunate bounces that are a requirement of a Stanley Cup championship won't happen in consecutive seasons means we haven't seen back-to-back champs since the Red Wings in 1996-97 and 1997-98. But this Blackhawks team may just be the one best poised to do it in recent memory.
Why Chicago will repeat as champions
1. Crawford back in net
In awarding Corey Crawford with a six-year, $36 million contract after he led the Blackhawks to a Stanley Cup, GM Stan Bowman erased one of the potential distractions from the coming season and was able to do something he couldn't the last time his team won it all: bring back the starting goalie. "The one thing we do know is we're going to have a great goaltender," Bowman said while talking about some of the uncertainties moving forward. "That's why this was an easy decision for us."
2. Returning stars
Without discounting the loss of Dave Bolland, Michael Frolik and Viktor Stalberg, the Blackhawks brought back nearly every critical player who contributed to the Cup win. They have high-end skill up front rivaled only by the Penguins and the kind of depth on defense needed to succeed in the playoffs. Bowman found the cap room to give Bryan Bickell a raise and structured this team in a way that didn't require an immediate dismantling like last time. "You have to plan this out three years in advance to be able to orchestrate it," Bowman explained during Monday's conference call. "We kept a majority of this group together."
3. Weak division
Not that they needed it, but the Blackhawks got a break in realignment with the move of their rival Red Wings to the Atlantic Division and the new playoff structure. Of the teams in the Central, only the Blues can really be classified as legitimate Stanley Cup contenders. The Wild are getting closer. The Predators, Stars, Jets and Avalanche are all improving teams capable of making the playoffs. But Chicago remains the clear class of that division, an advantage that becomes bigger with the new divisional playoff format. The new playoff format also eliminates early grueling travel possibilities in the playoffs that might have tripped up a centrally located Western Conference team such as Chicago.
It all doesn't guarantee anything. Recent history suggests that even those positives won't be enough.
Why Chicago won't repeat as champions
1. Too much fatigue
On the day his contract extension was announced, Crawford was enjoying his time with the Stanley Cup, a celebration of last season that is dangerously close to this season. "At one point, I'm going to have to shut it off and do it all over again," Crawford said during a conference call with reporters Monday afternoon. "I think we're prepared to do it all again."
While Crawford is still waiting for that point to come, players around the league have been preparing all summer for the coming season rather than turning the page on last year. It's all part of the Cup hangover, a reality that these Blackhawks know as well as any team. With its condensed schedule and a Stanley Cup finals played well into June, last year was one of the more challenging seasons. This year isn't much easier.
The Olympics mean another condensed schedule, and the Blackhawks are loaded with players expected to participate in that tournament too -- at the very least Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa and Duncan Keith. It's also quite possible that Crawford, Patrick Sharp, Niklas Hjalmarsson, Brent Seabrook and Brandon Saad could make their respective nations' rosters as well. It's reasonable to expect this team to be gassed by the time the 2014 Stanley Cup playoffs roll around.
2. Injury problems
Sure, Marian Hossa couldn't feel one of his legs while lifting the Stanley Cup, but for the most part the Blackhawks were pretty healthy last spring. Most Stanley Cup champs are. When things are so tight competitively, losing one player can change the entire dynamic of a series. Just look at how the loss of Gregory Campbell impacted the Bruins or how much Patrice Bergeron sacrificed just to stay in the lineup. The Kings were a dominant team when they won the Cup, but the removal of Willie Mitchell from the defense upset the balance last season. One guy can make the difference.
For Chicago, we saw the opposite happen when Bowman added Johnny Oduya into the mix. It slotted the Blackhawks defensemen into the right spots and made a huge difference with the Chicago blue line. True depth was one of the casualties of the salary cap, and even though the Blackhawks are deeper than most teams, they aren't immune to injuries.
3. A Crawford regression
There was quick criticism of Crawford's deal when the numbers circulated, and there's no denying that six years is a lot of term for any goalie. Bowman is just dealing in a reality in which successful goalies are getting paid numbers comparable to what Crawford earned. Jimmy Howard got a six-year deal worth $31.8 million. Mike Smith got a six-year deal worth $34 million. Tuukka Rask got an eight-year deal worth $56 million.
You may like one or all of them better than Crawford, but he has something they don't in a Stanley Cup -- Rask backed up Tim Thomas during the Bruins' Cup run in 2011 -- and earned it with a .932 save percentage in the playoffs last year. Even after his supposed glove-side weakness was exposed, he stopped 47 of the next 50 Bruins shots to win it all. That can't be ignored. But we also can't completely overlook his 2011-12 season in which he had a .903 save percentage and 2.72 goals-against average.
If that Crawford resurfaces, this deal looks horrible, and the chances of a repeat drop dramatically. A more likely scenario is production somewhere closer to his career averages -- a .913 save percentage in the regular season and .924 in the playoffs. With the team he has in front of him, that's good enough to keep winning.
4. Underperforming youth
Bowman mentioned Monday that he purposefully created openings for some of the prospects in the Chicago system to make the team this year, a necessity in the cap world. "We put a premium on draft choices and making sure we have strong young players," Bowman said. "We talked a lot about having confidence in our young players and knowing some of them will emerge over the next month and tell us they're ready for the job. The important thing for us is we're going to put those guys in position to succeed."
That's always the plan in August and September, but there's risk that comes with transitioning from veterans such as Bolland, Frolik and Stalberg to unproven young players. One of Chicago's strengths last season was its penalty kill, so you can't completely dismiss the departure of Frolik, who paired up with Marcus Kruger so effectively on the Blackhawks PK.
The possibility of a sophomore slump from Saad isn't out of the question either. He had 27 points in 46 games, but the talented forward saw that production drop to only one goal in 23 playoff games. Like any 20-year-old, he's going to have bouts of inconsistency and Bowman points out that the roster around Chicago's youth should help cover up any growing pains. "We're not going to ask these young players to carry the team," he said. "We're going to ask them to fit in."
