Why Alex might be traded not cut

[jayviabay]

I seen a report on NFL network this week that Kelly is pursuing to acquire Dixon to run his offense in Philly. Has anyone else seen this report?

 

[MHSL82]

I seen a report on NFL network this week that Kelly is pursuing to acquire Dixon to run his offense in Philly. Has anyone else seen this report?

I heard of that and that sounds like a great option for Dixon and a cheap one for Philly. He played at Oregon and the same style of offense, Kelly was the OC there when Dixon was there and then the HC, obviously after Dixon finished his college play (not sure if he graduated; he grayshirted, which is attend college some to retain eligibility, but that sounds like minimum credits).

Alex was a longshot there and if Dixon goes there, even as a backup, I don't want Alex to go there. No need to go into a situation voluntarily of warming a seat. That might happen, of course, but make that happen after the decision, don't decide to go somewhere that they want to replace you, again.

 

[jayviabay]

Yeah, I agree. I dont want to see him go to a team just to be a stop gap. The chiefs, browns, and jags, seem to be the best situations in terms of an opportunity to be a starter.

 

[Kinzu]

I'd say Kansas City is the best place for him. They have a ton of talent on that team and Andy Reid is a QB's coach. Arizona is probably not a possibility unless they cut Kolb, and even then they have a horrible Oline, no running back, and who knows about their new coach. Jacksonville is an intriguing option if they are in the market for a QB. The Bills will probably stick with Fitzpatrick and draft a QB.

 

[Flyingiguana]

I heard of that and that sounds like a great option for Dixon and a cheap one for Philly. He played at Oregon and the same style of offense, Kelly was the OC there when Dixon was there and then the HC, obviously after Dixon finished his college play (not sure if he graduated; he grayshirted, which is attend college some to retain eligibility, but that sounds like minimum credits).

Alex was a longshot there and if Dixon goes there, even as a backup, I don't want Alex to go there. No need to go into a situation voluntarily of warming a seat. That might happen, of course, but make that happen after the decision, don't decide to go somewhere that they want to replace you, again.

i highly doubt dixon beats out foles

 

[MHSL82]

I'd say Kansas City is the best place for him. They have a ton of talent on that team and Andy Reid is a QB's coach. Arizona is probably not a possibility unless they cut Kolb, and even then they have a horrible Oline, no running back, and who knows about their new coach. Jacksonville is an intriguing option if they are in the market for a QB. The Bills will probably stick with Fitzpatrick and draft a QB.

I hope Kansas City gets him and doesn't draft a sure-fire backup like that Kaep now seems to have been. Let him have the year - I know that wasn't popular, but now that's he's not a Niner, what the fuck would we care? I want them to give him the year to see how he does. I don't want any grooming. He should be given the year and then if not working out so well, use him as the bridge. Keep Cassel as the backup.

I'm not talking about what I think will happen, just what I would like for him. He's the type that will work hard even without the replacement behind him. I, in fact, think he'd do better without it - but let me be clear, I wouldn't want us not to have the long-term QB as backup here if we had Smith, but I would like it there because I'm not a KC fan and won't be. I'd like to see how he does without the idea being to replace him. I want to feel that there isn't a plan to replace. I want them to believe in him. Replacement should come as a result of play, not grand scheme, long-term thinking. And no, I don't want a better QB like Kaep there. Again, not saying that's practical, just what I would want. If they are set back, what do I care, if Smith isn't the QB? I want sink or swim - and obviously I want him to swim.

I'm afraid that Cleveland will get him instead. They have some positives, but when I see Cleveland, I see the Browns. Ehh. Philadelphia, I'd like, but I think they'll be thinking bridge, too - Kelly may take a page out of Harbaugh's book (not that other coaches haven't done it before). Practically speaking, I think all teams would be thinking bridge and it would be up to Smith to prove against it, but Philadelphia seems more so, to me.

I don't want him in Arizona for a few reasons. 1) I don't want to have to root against him twice a year and have to hear obnoxious stuff about him when we beat him. 2) I think the oline would hurt his already average play. 3) I think the only way he gets there, is because we had released him, going to the rival isn't the best payback for Alex to show - regardless of whether it'd be two easy wins. It's just why would you want to go to the rival that isn't good (Favre had a reason since Minnesota was peaking).

 

[MHSL82]

Alex Smith in Good Position - I think this article was a fair assessment of Alex over the years an currently. Appropriately notes the gamble and qualifies the positives and the negatives. I don't think he went too high or too low with Smith and was fair all along. There is a point or two that some would disagree with, but nothing too drastic.

Alex Smith as an Option from the Eagles' Perspective - Similar to the Dilfer article about his reported interest from Reid last off-season.

Suitors for Alex Smith Disclaimer: I don't know this source well, it says Sports Illustrated, but also is on a Niner Noise website of it, so I don't know if it's BleacherReportesque. Goes through some of the teams we've heard, with some information.

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Alex Smith Steady Through Highs and Lows - Sticking it here because no one wants a new thread or a bump of another.

Article from San Diego, Alex's home town - There are a few inaccuracies in this article, but a local perspective from his high school coach and some quotes from Smith regarding the switch, the Super Bowl, etc. Again, didn't want to start a new thread.

History Sometimes Rewards Those Who are Sidelined - Talks about Wally Pipp, but also about Ken Mattingly - he was replaced a week before Apollo 13 and had to miss the flight, but he helped Appollo 13 land safely because of his knowledge of the spaceship when there was a problem with the spacecraft (the famous "Houston, we have a problem." Alex knows the offense and has the experience to help Kaep behind the scenes.

 

[MHSL82]

Disclaimer: Written by a fan, longer, and overvalues Smith. Is pretty thorough and organized, but I can't vouch for accuracy.

Alex Smith: Release or Trade? If Traded, For What? To Whom?

 

[Bemular]

It seems Alex is "coming out" at the perfect time with the number of teams looking for/needing a QB and the QB talent in the draft being thin. This could turn out well for both the 49ers & Alex. In a 'normal' year I think Alex is released.

 

[MHSL82]

It seems Alex is "coming out" at the perfect time with the number of teams looking for/needing a QB and the QB talent in the draft being thin. This could turn out well for both the 49ers & Alex. In a 'normal' year I think Alex is released.

I forgot who said it, but they pointed out how Alex came in 2005 when it was a relatively weak draft. Had he come any other year, he wouldn't have been drafted first (as if this was a coincidence that he decided to skip his senior year). And now, he may benefit from another weak class.

I would also say that he was in a good situation at Utah having a good college coach in Urban Meyer, having success, and then he had to go to a bad team with a bad coach. Now, he was playing for a great coach in Harbaugh, having success, and now is likely to go to a 2-14 team or thereabouts. Better coach than Nolan, though.

So his fate has a good aspect to it and a bad aspect to it. If Harbaugh were starting in 2005, who knows what would happen? (Assuming Harbaugh came, inexplicably, after the draft.) It wouldn't make Smith's skillset different, but he'd likely be better. It's likely Smith improves faster and it would be hard to assume Kaepernick would be in our path at that time, even if Smith had not panned out (maybe we draft someone in 2010?).

 

[Bemular]

I forgot who said it, but they pointed out how Alex came in 2005 when it was a relatively weak draft. Had he come any other year, he wouldn't have been drafted first (as if this was a coincidence that he decided to skip his senior year). And now, he may benefit from another weak class.

I would also say that he was in a good situation at Utah having a good college coach in Urban Meyer, having success, and then he had to go to a bad team with a bad coach. Now, he was playing for a great coach in Harbaugh, having success, and now is likely to go to a 2-14 team or thereabouts. Better coach than Nolan, though.

So his fate has a good aspect to it and a bad aspect to it. If Harbaugh were starting in 2005, who knows what would happen? (Assuming Harbaugh came, inexplicably, after the draft.) It wouldn't make Smith's skillset different, but he'd likely be better. It's likely Smith improves faster and it would be hard to assume Kaepernick would be in our path at that time, even if Smith had not panned out (maybe we draft someone in 2010?).

Smith may not have gone one overall, but Alex DID have (somewhat) 1st overall measurables; however, he did NOT have 1st overall intangibles.

As for Smith "likely' being better had he come into a Harbaugh offense straight out of college - not a chance. Smith would have just hit his ceiling sooner and Harbaugh would have simply replaced Smith with another QB.

I predict, and not maliciously, that Smith will never again play to the level he has for the past 25 games and if he refuses to see himself for what he is, a back-up QB, then he will be out of the NFL by 2015.

 

[MHSL82]

Smith may not have gone one overall, but Alex DID have (somewhat) 1st overall measurables; however, he did NOT have 1st overall intangibles.

As for Smith "likely' being better had he come into a Harbaugh offense straight out of college - not a chance. Smith would have just hit his ceiling sooner and Harbaugh would have simply replaced Smith with another QB.

I predict, and not maliciously, that Smith will never again play to the level he has for the past 25 games and if he refuses to see himself for what he is, a back-up QB, then he will be out of the NFL by 2015.

He'll be a backup if he doesn't succeed. Nothing he does or doesn't do by going for a starting job will affect that. He'll still be smart, experienced, younger for awhile, professional, and willing to put in the hard work. Out of the league, is a bit extreme, IMO. Being a backup now would be taking the risk before the opportunity to avoid the risk. Doesn't make sense. This was his best shot at a ring, but to resign to a backup job, just to have a 2M job in 2016 is putting his priorities a bit out of whack. Why not take 8.5 for 1-2 years and then 2 for a few rather than 3 for longer? He has enough money for even if that doesn't work out, and if it does, he's better off. One year of 8.5 makes up for 1-3 years of bench work if he does in fact lose out. We should just agree to disagree on this, because it's a value thing, which is opinion. I'm not arguing his football skills.

And when I said better, I didn't mean better overall, I mean, he'd be a better prospect in the eyes of the media and maybe a few teams than he is now, having had a few good years early. Many of the negs about him are worse because of those first six years. In terms of GMs, I think they can look a bit past that, and just look at what he is currently without much reference to the past, but overall impression by everybody would be a bit different if he had those good years early and none of the bad years. Though 2005 wouldn't have been 2011, I don't think.

 

[Bemular]

He'll be a backup if he doesn't succeed. Nothing he does or doesn't do by going for a starting job will affect that. This was his best shot at a ring, but to resign to a backup job, just to have a 2M job in 2016 is putting his priorities a bit out of whack. Why not take 8.5 for two years and then 2 for a few rather than 3 for longer. We should just agree to disagree on this, because it's a value thing, which is opinion. I'm not arguing his football skills.

I'm not sensing any disagreement, but maybe I'm missing something.

I'm just saying, because of the market Smith will likely get a shot somewhere - He will then fail and be faced with the decision to either re-structure whatever contract he signed to a back-up's contract or he will be released.

If he chooses the former he will have a long and profitable career. If he chooses the latter he will be gone from the NFL - It honestly is just that easy to understand. Alex Smith simply does not have the skills necessary to carry today's NFL teams.

In fact, any team taking Smith will be doing so with the intent for him to be that teams future back-up - not starter.

 

[MHSL82]

I'm not sensing any disagreement, but maybe I'm missing something.

I'm just saying, because of the market Smith will likely get a shot somewhere - He will then fail and be faced with the decision to either re-structure whatever contract he signed to a back-up's contract or he will be released.

If he chooses the former he will have a long and profitable career. If he chooses the latter he will be gone from the NFL - It honestly is just that easy to understand. Alex Smith simply does not have the skills necessary to carry today's NFL teams.

In fact, any team taking Smith will be doing so with the intent for him to be that teams future back-up - not starter.

Oh, ok. I thought you were saying that Smith should just stay as a backup here because otherwise he'll be a backup elsewhere after starting. I think he should take the latter. I'd love him to be our backup, but as a guy I respect, I want him to at least try to make it elsewhere. I didn't like how David Carr was so content being a backup and Matt Leinart refused to compete and went to backup an established Schaub and then Palmer. He wasn't ready when either got injured. I know that path may lend to a longer eriod of being able to say that he's on a roster, but less time to actually play. I want him to play until no one else wants to play him and then backup until no one wants him and then coach if he can. I'd rather Smith have a shorter career but start for awhile, as I believe shorter wouldn't mean out of the league right after the starting is over.

 

[MHSL82]

I'm just saying, because of the market Smith will likely get a shot somewhere - He will then fail and be faced with the decision to either re-structure whatever contract he signed to a back-up's contract or he will be released.

Just for clarification, what is fail? Is that regress to Cassel-like levels? Is it having the new guy Kaepernick him again? Is it performing efficiently but not winning? To what level do you see? Is it getting to an efficient level but that not being good enough? Will he be like he was the end of 2010 or beginning? How much of this is affected by whether it's to Reid's or Turner's system?

 

[Bemular]

Oh, ok. I thought you were saying that Smith should just stay as a backup here because otherwise he'll be a backup elsewhere after starting. I think he should take the latter. I'd love him to be our backup, but as a guy I respect, I want him to at least try to make it elsewhere.

This is precisely what I'm saying - So there is no disagreement?

 

[Bemular]

Just for clarification, what is fail? Is that regress to Cassel-like levels? Is it having the new guy Kaepernick him again? Is it performing efficiently but not winning? To what level do you see? Is it getting to an efficient level but that not being good enough? Will he be like he was the end of 2010 or beginning? How much of this is affected by whether it's to Reid's or Turner's system?

Couple thoughts here.

First, and this cannot be overstated, under Jim Harbaugh, Alex Smith DID NOT fail the 49ers. He was simply replaced but a QB with far superior skills.

Second, and to answer your question - Yes, a Cassel-like failure seems about right. I can see Alex becoming the NFL's next Steve Deberg.

 

[MHSL82]

This is precisely what I'm saying - So there is no disagreement?

Nope, no disagreement, we disagree on very few things, these days. I just need to figure out how to communicate with everyone here to get a good discussion. My posts, though hard to tell, are shorter.

 

[Bemular]

Nope, no disagreement, we disagree on very few things, these days. I just need to figure out how to communicate with everyone here to get a good discussion. My posts, though hard to tell, are shorter.

I think those discussions are relatively easy to have with nearly everyone here, including myself; just be respectful. Be respectful in both agreements and disagreements. The problem for some, as I see it, arises when they allow their ego to become part of their argument arsenal.

 

[MHSL82]

I think those discussions are relatively easy to have with nearly everyone here, including myself; just be respectful. Be respectful in both agreements and disagreements. The problem for some, as I see it, arises when they allow their ego to become part of their argument arsenal.

I can get along with most anybody fine, I actually think the only person I've ever argued with here was you, though I know I annoyed Clyde a bit with my Alex talk. I think I've ben able to avoid arguments with you for the most part lately. I just thought that I rarely have discussions with many here because my posts are so long and focused a lot on the QBs and opinion. I've been trying to follow the draft and Culliver talk, etc. but it's not catching on. I'm just not that interested.

I'm a QB-focused person, but Kaep doesn't leave me with much to say because there aren't the things I feel I need to defend him on. (Need's too strong of word, but you know what I mean.) I'm not much to gush on someone, I usually just make comments responding to others. If I agree I'll say so or let be. Sort of like Patrick Willis. What would I have to say about him? Compare him to Ray Lewis?

My posts get so long because I anticipate what someone could say or misinterpret from what I typed and pre-emptively try to explain it, then the explanation then goes forever. It's just my personality. But I know people skip over my posts then. Oh well.

You can't tell with this post, but I am shortening my posts up because no one wants to read novels. Why I have to say isn't that interesting. I'll just write and clarify later if need be.