Why Alex might be traded not cut

[NinerSickness]

So if you don't think that those deals would happen again, why would hold them up as the standard for trading Smith?

He & Fitzpatrick are probably the closest thing of which I can think to Alex in terms of free agent value.

It's hard to guess how much money players are gonna get. But if he's worth more than a 2 year 18.5 million dollar contract, then I think there's a chance someone trades for him.

 

[Flyingiguana]

3rd rounder from kc for smith

 

[Robotech]

3rd rounder from kc for smith

I would be ecstatic if we could get this.

 

[NinerSickness]

I would be ecstatic if we could get this.

I'd be ecstatic for a 4th since it'd be a really high one.

I've had my eye on Cornelius Washington to rotate as a 3-4 DE.

 

[tomikcon1971]

The whole situation is pretty ironic to me. The year Smith and Rodgers came out,it was deemed a really weak year for QBs. Alex benefited from that. The Niners needed a QB and picked him first putting a lot of cash in his pocket.

Now in 2013, everything I'm hearing/reading indicates it's another pretty pedestrian college QB class. There's no one super exciting in FA market either. So once again, Alex might be the best option out there and benefit financially. Good for him, but what are the odds on that?

Early in the discussion I was convinced teams would wait for him to get cut and I still lean that way. If we could get a 3rd or 4th, I'd be ecstatic as well.

The NFL is all about keeping the cupboard full of young talent and we'll need to keep stocking the shelves to create a dynasty. The occasional FA signing is necessary but I don't think that strategy bodes well for sustainability (not saying we are signing too many). That's why the Revis discussion makes me nervous. Lots of talent, but l fear lots of dollars, injury unknowns, and potential drama that just might not be worth the trouble.

 

[MHSL82]

The whole situation is pretty ironic to me. The year Smith and Rodgers came out,it was deemed a really weak year for QBs. Alex benefited from that. The Niners needed a QB and picked him first putting a lot of cash in his pocket.

Now in 2013, everything I'm hearing/reading indicates it's another pretty pedestrian college QB class. There's no one super exciting in FA market either. So once again, Alex might be the best option out there and benefit financially. Good for him, but what are the odds on that?

Early in the discussion I was convinced teams would wait for him to get cut and I still lean that way. If we could get a 3rd or 4th, I'd be ecstatic as well.

The NFL is all about keeping the cupboard full of young talent and we'll need to keep stocking the shelves to create a dynasty. The occasional FA signing is necessary but I don't think that strategy bodes well for sustainability (not saying we are signing too many). That's why the Revis discussion makes me nervous. Lots of talent, but l fear lots of dollars, injury unknowns, and potential drama that just might not be worth the trouble.

It depends on how much 1-2 million in cap is worth and how much. If he's cut before March 14th, he gets 2 million - so obviously that's not happening. If he's cut after March 14th (but before April 1st is over), he gets 1 million. If we think we could bluff that we'd keep him because the overall pay for the QB position is ok, then maybe the pick we'd get would be sweetened. But I doubt teams would believe us. There's just too much we could do with that money. We could frontload a contract for someone so that it frees some up for Kaep's extension a year or so from now. We could sign people to fill whatever few holes we may have, keep Goldson, etc.

So there will be a push up until March 14th to trade him. Then, we'll pull back (maybe) and push again before April 1st. Alex's agent will be involved in the process, so he'll get permission to shop Alex around and also will push for the release as early as possible if not trade is met. The release will not be before March 14th, in any case because why pay more and give your opponent more time to work with Smith for no reason? For an early trade, fine, but as a FA. Alex if released couldn't sign until March 11th or 12th, anyway (the start of the league year), I think. Early negotiation could be preferential for Smith, but that's not the Niners' concern. Alex, if he gets released April 1st, he may want to wait to see what teams do in the draft before signing, but strike while the iron is hot.

My point? The Niners might ask for less so as to save the 1 million, but more importantly to get something rather than nothing and to dictate his fate. Even though Alex Smith isn't scary, you still don't want him in our division if you can trade outside of it. Teams may offer more, earlier, so as to get him on this contract which is essentially a one year contract with a team option for a second.

 

[TobyTyler]

I can't believe I didn't think of this earlier.

last year Alex signed what is essentially a 1 year contract for 4 million dollars. Now he's had by far the best season of his career. He's shown a hell of a lot more than Kevin Kolb did when he was traded.

Kevin Kolb signed for 6 years & 62 million dollars. (wow). Matt Flynn even signed for 3 years & 19.5 million after starting 1 like 1 game.

Alex is easily a better QB than Kolb. If he gets into URFA, he should get a contract at least as big as Kolb did. So let's say he'll sign for his jersey number per season (11). Kolb got more guarenteed money in his contract without even factoring his 2012 salary than the next 2 years of Alex' contract combined (21 million).

So teams who would like to give Alex a try have 2 options. (1) Sign him to a big FA QB sized contract and shell out probaly 25 million in guarentees (at least) or (2) Trade for him and essentially get him for a 1 year contract at 9.75 million with a team option for another year at 8.75 million. And zero of that would be guarenteed, so they could just cut him if it didn't work out. If I were a team who wanted him, I'd be much more comfortable with the 2nd option because it's a far lower financial risk. They get a year to try him out & see what he can do. The Cards didn't get that option with Kolb.

So that's why I think there's a chance the Niners could trade Alex rather than cut him. The question is how much could they get for him? A 3rd rounder? A 2nd???

Sorry Sickness, it ain't gonna happen. I read your scenario three times and can find no reason why any team would not simply wait for Smith to be cut which the 49ers have no choice but to do. No one is going to pay Smith what Kolb got

 

[imac_21]

Sorry Sickness, it ain't gonna happen. I read your scenario three times and can find no reason why any team would not simply wait for Smith to be cut which the 49ers have no choice but to do. No one is going to pay Smith what Kolb got

The reason a team would trade for him rather than wait for him to be cut is to ensure they get him. The question is what do the teams that have interest value him at? Do they consider a 3rd round pick good enough value to make sure they don't have to compete with 2, 3 or 4 other teams to get his services (I don't think we get a 3rd, we MIGHT be able to pull a 4th, but it's a longshot).

The one advantage we do have when it comes to trading him is that this year does not look to be a strong QB draft class, and there are half a dozen or so teams that could be looking for a QB.

I still doubt we can trade him (maybe for a 5th or 6th), but that's the argument that he can be traded.

 

[NinerSickness]

The reason a team would trade for him rather than wait for him to be cut is to ensure they get him.

The other benefit would be that they get to experiment with him for a year or 2 before committing to a long-term deal.

 

[imac_21]

The other benefit would be that they get to experiment with him for a year or 2 before committing to a long-term deal.

You're assuming that if he were to hit the open market he'd get a long term deal. I think guys like Kolb, Cassell and Fitzpatrick are reasons he wouldn't. He'd likely get 2 or 3 years.

 

[NinerSickness]

You're assuming that if he were to hit the open market he'd get a long term deal. I think guys like Kolb, Cassell and Fitzpatrick are reasons he wouldn't. He'd likely get 2 or 3 years.

Well yeah, the suppposed benefit would only exiist if he's worth something significantly larger & longer than 2 years @ 18.5 million. I hope he is. I think he's probably a safer bet than any of the QBs in this draft (except maybe Tyler Wilson).

 

[mem49er]

Just thought of this, but maybe we'd be able to get a 3rd for next year? I'd highly prefer that to 4th this year.

 

[MHSL82]

Just thought of this, but maybe we'd be able to get a 3rd for next year? I'd highly prefer that to 4th this year.

I hope it's this year's, too. Not only because of my impatience and their position this year, I don't want a reason to root for his failure, unless we meet in the SB, which I can't see happening, especially not next year. Not that I would ever actively root for failure (some will), but there's no better pick than this year and I won't want to need a loss to get a better consolation prize for switching years. Otherwise, he can have success and we still made the right choice. Only one who loses out is Alex for not being here, but that's was the minimum loss, either way.

 

[imac_21]

I hope it's this year's, too. Not only because of my impatience and their position this year, I don't want a reason to root for his failure, unless we meet in the SB, which I can't see happening, especially not next year. Not that I would ever actively root for failure (some will), but there's no better pick than this year and I won't want to need a loss to get a better consolation prize for switching years. Otherwise, he can have success and we still made the right choice. Only one who loses out is Alex for not being here, but that's was the minimum loss, either way.

I'd rather get a pick next year. We already have 13(?) picks this year. There's no way those guys all make the roster. Adding another pick this year, particularly if it's a 4th or 5th, could lead to us getting nothing for him.

That being I said, I expect Baalke to be quite active in the draft this year, moving up at least once.

 

[MHSL82]

I'd rather get a pick next year. We already have 13(?) picks this year. There's no way those guys all make the roster. Adding another pick this year, particularly if it's a 4th or 5th, could lead to us getting nothing for him.

That being I said, I expect Baalke to be quite active in the draft this year, moving up at least once.

Yeah, I see that too. Theirs is better, we could trade ours and keep theirs, maybe. Packaging and all that. But I can't comment much on it because I'm obviously not a draft guy. Are two fourths (one being almost a 3rd and one being almost a 5th) get us anything, combo of picks for the future or present, etc.?

 

[imac_21]

Yeah, I see that too. Theirs is better, we could trade ours and keep theirs, maybe. Packaging and all that. But I can't comment much on it because I'm obviously not a draft guy. Are two fourths (one being almost a 3rd and one being almost a 5th) get us anything, combo of picks for the future or present, etc.?

It's ammo we can use to move up. If we are targeting a guy in the 2nd that we feel we have to move up half a dozen or so spots for, than an extra 4th definitely helps make that happen.

Likewise, if we're targeting a guy in the first but feel we have to move up to about 25 or so to get him, then extra picks can help make that happen.

We could also package those two 4ths to get into the 3rd.

There is no reason this draft to not get the guys we want (save the guys that go in the top 20 or so). We have the ammo to move up in each round to get the guys we're targeting.

 

[tomikcon1971]

Schef and Greeny next to each other on flight to NOLA

@Espngreeny: I say NO. Shefty says TAKE IT.
RT “@mattyice21_: @Espngreeny would u accept Alex Smith and a second round pick for ur boy revis”

 

[MHSL82]

Schef and Greeny next to each other on flight to NOLA

@Espngreeny: I say NO. Shefty says TAKE IT.
RT “@mattyice21_: @Espngreeny would u accept Alex Smith and a second round pick for ur boy revis”

Please, no. I don't want Smith to go to NY without Norv Turner (I didn't even like it when that was an option - Gamble was also rumored at the time). Trade with Kansas City because they have higher picks in each round and Alex would have Reid not Ryan. Three letters in the name makes a big difference.

 

[MHSL82]

It's ammo we can use to move up. If we are targeting a guy in the 2nd that we feel we have to move up half a dozen or so spots for, than an extra 4th definitely helps make that happen.

Likewise, if we're targeting a guy in the first but feel we have to move up to about 25 or so to get him, then extra picks can help make that happen.

We could also package those two 4ths to get into the 3rd.

There is no reason this draft to not get the guys we want (save the guys that go in the top 20 or so). We have the ammo to move up in each round to get the guys we're targeting.

Would you do a swap of our 4th, 5th, and 6th round picks? (It would be basically moving our end of the 4th to the beginning of the 4th (like a 3rd), and so on.) Or conversely, something like a swap of 3rd, 4th, and 5th? (Or 2nd, 3rd, and 4th and so on.)

 

[NinerSickness]

Please, no. I don't want Smith to go to NY without Norv Turner (I didn't even like it when that was an option - Gamble was also rumored at the time). Trade with Kansas City because they have higher picks in each round and Alex would have Reid not Ryan. Three letters in the name makes a big difference.

KC has higher picks, but they'rd probably going to offer a similar value in terms of picks (if they were even interested). They're not going to look at a "second rounder" statically; they'll look at it like the 33rd pick.

Alex would get murdered in NY.