Which team has the best roster ?

[Redsfan1507]

As usual, I spend this time of year lamenting the weaknesses of our Reds...when in reality, it's really all about what every other team has to compete against our Reds. In the days of lots of playoff teams, and wildcards that do periodically get to the big Series, maybe we don't have to have the best, just among the best, after all.

Who has better rosters top to bottom in the NL ?

I tend to like ( or hate as it were) the Cardinals, that seem to have about every answer- except possibly the LHSP I put so much value on. The Dodgers have some weapons, but not sure their 5 pitching staff from top to bottom is any better than the Reds. The Giants pitch, but offense is a mystery. Atlanta strikes out a lot.

Thoughts ?

It's probably what a lot of GM's are contemplating this winter...

 

[JohnU]

I don't follow the numbers much anymore.

From a pitching standpoint: What surprised me last year was that the Cards pitchers hung in there a lot longer than I expected. Lots of reasons for that. In fact, they got better down the stretch. Will that continue?

With Price moving from coach to manager, I would imagine the pitchers will handled differently, but I have no reason to actually believe that.

The Parrots are doing a nice job emulating the Athletics in finding affordable talent that can fit into a niche. They keep upgrading an inch at a time. I won't buy into their pitching again until I see what comes out of the gate.

Brewers have more pop in their lineup than is good for them, without any arms and shoddy defense. But that's the sort of team that can stay in a pennant race until September. When that happens, other shit happens.

Around the league, I honestly think the worst rosters are in New York (Mets) and Philly. Miami may be closer to turning it around than we think but they can also screw it up real bad too.

Dodgers are buying pennants if they can. Eventually that will stop working.

I always know Atlanta has somebody who's on the cusp. That isn't changing.

Rosters are about payroll now, not people. That's why it's hard to evaluate it.

 

[Redsfan1507]

The Marlins always find pitching. I'd like to see a breakdown of say, the top 100 starting pitchers, and see which teams drafted the highest percentage of them. I'd believe the Marlins are among them. The Dodgers used to be like that, possibly until buyng talent became their modus aperandi.

The problem with the Marlins is, the fans won't show up, for whatever reason. Even when they were competitive, even when they have a new stadium, even when they spend a lot of money. The media hates Loria, so he gets zero press support, and the fans treat him like Mussolini. Wierd to me after a century of successful minor league and spring training baseball, Florida just won't support a MLB team, so far, anyway. I bet San Juan or Havana would though.

Other than the Cardinals, I see lots of holes in rosters in the NL. Even the Cardinals need a LHSP and the back of the Dodgers rotation is questionable. The Giants prioritize pitching, and have the funds to invest, but are always a hitter or three short. They could solve that at any time.

If we are to believe that PED's are really on the decline, I have to believe offenses will be too, at least until the byproducts of PED's on philospohy are re-thought...in other words, until contact rates, OBP and stolen bases are prioritized again, and 140 strikeouts per 550 AB's and waiting on the 3 run HR to advance runners aren't as common.

I don't believe in the Brewers because I don't believe they value pitching enough. Even when they had some, the didn't keep it long. The D is bad, and their biggest PR and talent tool, Ryan Braun, is a villan now. The Pirates on the other hand, are doing a pretty good impression on the Reds a few seasons ago-revitalizing fans with improved pitching, farm talent and about 2 players anyone would recognize at the gorcery...and they have one thing the Reds didn't going for them- they have a manager with a sense of accountability.

 

[JohnU]

Interesting thoughts on San Juan and Havana. They would fill up a ballpark but the problem is, the economy sucks too bad. Paying MLB prices would be prohibitive.

The common conception is that MLB should expand into the Far East, but going south to S. America makes more sense. Maricaibo and Caracas are much better locations -- if the economy is stable.
Venezuela is a strong market.

But you need a ballpark.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I'm not so sure a MLB team would received as well as teams native to the region. Latin American players take great pride in playing for their countries and I tend to think the fans enthusiasm is driven by their cultural pride as well. The fan base may not be as supportive of a bunch of "Gringos".

I found it interesting to see the turn out and support that Choo got from Asian fans at GABP. I can't remember ever seeing as many Asians at games before the Choo trade and suspect there won't be as much support from the Asian community now that he has more than likely moved on.

Getting back on topic.....as for the NL Central

The Cards are probably going to be picked by most people to win the NL Central, but I'm not ready to crown them yet. They've shaken things up a bit trading Freese and letting Beltran leave for free agency. After the Reds won in 1975-76, the Reds traded Tony Perez, it was the move that Bob Howsam listed as his biggest mistake. So change doesn't always work out for the betterment of a team, but remaining static isn't always the answer either.

IMO, the Pirates are as likely to regress as they are to take the next step. I don't see any moves they've made to this point that suggest they are going to surpass the Cards. Picking up Edison Volguez can't be seen as a team on the right track.......can it?

The Brewers on paper have talent at most positions. But.... Aramis Ramirez is getting old and often injured, they're relying on two returning rookie players in Scooter Gennett and Khris Davis who may regress now the league has the book on them. First base could be a problem and as mentioned they're not great defensively. Their bullpen improved last season, but they're dependent on several starting pitchers to improve to even be considered in contention for a wild card.

As far as outside the division..... IMO, the team in the NL to look out for is the Washington Nationals. They've added Doug Fister to what was an already pretty good staff. They're deep in starters with Strasburg, Gio, Zimmerman, Fister, and Tanner Roark, Taylor Jordan, and Detwiler battling for the fifth spot. The had 6 position player hit more than 16 HR's with 5 hitting 20+, they have descent team speed and defense. They've added Nate Mclouth as probably a 4th OF. They look to be a few small finishing pieces away to returning to their 2012 form.

 

[redsfan03]

Not sure who has the best roster. It's still early enough that there are a lot of moves still to be made. I do know one thing - it sure as hell isn't our Reds...

 

[Redsfan1507]

Interesting thoughts...

S. America/ Latin America's biggest impediments to MLB, IMO, isn't the lack of a ballpark- it's economy, government stability and travel time. San Juan and Havana are close enough to travel, but Cuba is banned travel for US, economy sucks too. Puerto Rico is a US protectorate, a better chance, IMO. Mexico City is huge, but a long flight from Eastern US and Canada.

If MLB had a team in the Far East, it would be the death of Japanese baseball, much like integration killed the ***** Leagues...and travel is long, and Japan is really the only country stable enough to risk such an investment.

It's not eminent, but if fans don't support Florida teams, contraction might be a possibility. For some reason, most pro franchises are reluctant to go to Las Vegas, like gambling couldn't effect a team anywhere else, but as long as it had a dome, I think the city has everything else it needs. Baseball is a foreign concept in New Orleans, and the Carolina's aren't a big market. I'm amazed the Rays don't draw much, but do get by well on a small roster, but I could see the Marlins going under.

On the topic- I don't think the Reds have the best roster, but if you look at others, most have at least as many holes...some more.

 

[JohnU]

NPB would never allow MLB into Japan.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Sure would solve the posting problem wouldn't it ?

I'm sure it's mostly egocentric racism on my part, but I still believe the Japanese league only has about one player per team with real MLB talent, and that may be fewer than most double-A teams. There is a lot about that system I don't understand- like if you are a Darvish kind of talent, why couldn't you just quit, get your own agent and come to the USA with a free agent resume ? I mean, couldn't a MLB do the same thing in reverse ? They wouldn't have to pay the Reds if Arroyo wanted to sign with a Japanese team.

 

[JohnU]

Posting system is clearly slanted to help big market teams.
It does seem bizarre that the loyalty would be this strong.
Yeah, just quit and fly to the U.S., cut a deal and start playing.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

For the most part I'd agree John.

It's ironic that the first team to acquire a NPB player through the "Posting System" was the Cincinnati Reds when they signed Alejandro Diaz who never amounted to anything. Most fans think of the NPB as an all Japanese player league, but they sign international prospects including players from the Dominican Republic.

The original process for the transfer of NPB players began in the mid to late 1960's when the SF Giants and a NPB team had an arrangement that allowed three players to get US minor league experience while on loan to the Giants. A player named Masanori Murakami became the first Japanese player in the Majors when the Giants promoted him to the big club after winning minor league Rookie of the Year in his league. The Giants decided they were going to keep him and the whole mess was started. Murakami was eventually sent back to Japan and the US- Japanese Player Contract Agreement was signed making NPB players under contract off limits to the MLB.

It wasn't until the 1990's that the next major change was made. Hideo Nomo lawyered up and got his contract voided and signed with the Dodgers. The last straw for the NPB was when Alfonso Soriano did the same and signed with the Yankees. Fed up with loosing players without compensation due to loopholes in the US- Japanese agreement, it was rewritten closing out loopholes and signed by the NPB Commissioner and Bud Selig. The "Posting System" was born.

My understanding is that the agreement has no restrictions on MLB players going to the NPB. I guess they figure none of the MLB stars would be interested.

 

[JohnU]

I remember Murakami .... makes a great trivia question. But this is interesting background, a lot of which I have forgotten over the years. Naturally a lot of U.S. guys sign with Asian teams. I noticed Felix Pie (be still, my heart) signed in Korea this week.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I have a Murakami baseball card, unfortunately it's not worth near as much as a Honus Wagner tobacco card. It's worth about $20, but it has a nice bubble gum stain on the back.

 

[Redsfan1507]

By definition, ALL the players in MLB are MLB quality players. Only a few in Japanese League are. Some MLB players that fall below MLB standards, find success in Japan... Another supporting definition of an inferior league. There have been Cubans of note, that suggest their National Team is a notch above most other talent pools outside the U.S, but who do THEY play ? IMO, it's really hard to judge how an individual player will fare in MLB, when the competition they play is inconsistently talented. College players with non wood bats and randomly tested PEDs sure have dissapointed a lot of MLB scouts. Conversely, I'm sure there have been a few players that might have been stars but never got the chance. The Dominican Republic has put some impressive MLB's to work. Canada's cold weather makes baseball products slim...yet absence of the sport prohibits warm weather places like Saudi Arabia and Tahiti from producing MLB fodder. The NPB is just practicing politics similar to trade imbalance successes of the past...exporting at an advantage while restricting true competition at home.

I think ALL players are a risk, and to pay $20M to a MLB talent deficient team/league just to gain the right to pay a player that much a year, to SEE if he has that kind of MLB value, is a very high dollar gamble...I probably wouldn't wish to play much...especially given that the top ametuer draft picks might fetch only $2-3M, and can be monitored in the US minor league system. You could sign an entire pitching staff of such players for the price of a single posted player. Darvish had unusual Japanese tools- taller, harder throwing, better physical metrics, but he was quite a bit more mortal in MLB, when facing a league where the average hitter weighs more than 175 lbs... where his stats looked like Christy Matthewson and Nolan Ryan rolled into Godzillas frame.

I'd probably spend that cash scouting and developing better at home, or in discount talent pools in Latin America, where MLB pay dirt is more frequent.