The only other factor here is that Kawhi does have some leverage.
He might try to dictate the terms by saying he will only consider resigning with a few teams, which would torpedo his value for everyone else. If he does try to force his way somewhere, I would have to think the Lakers would be near the top of his list. And they do have the assets required to get themselves in the conversation.
Yeah, to me, Kawhi trying to force his way to the Lakers is probably the Lakers best shot. As you point out, it will drive down his value.
I would guess that some team that feels they are close will try to put together a package that would be better than the Lakers and hope that a deep playoff run/title would convince him to stay (similar to OKC trading for PG). But who knows?
As we've all said, this should be an interesting off season.