Game Thread: Week 4: Monday night Mayhem in the Motor City. 5:15/8:15. ABC/TSN

[flyerhawk]

Yeah it really looked like he caught that. It should have been reviewed by the booth since it was a scoring play, but I think we all know that doesn't actually happen all of the time. They miss blatant stuff a few times a year. I have to think they just didn't take much of a look.

The 2 point attempt there appeared to be the coaching staff misunderstanding the analytics. Late in the game going for two when down 14 is the "correct" move if you look at pure numbers and data from thousands of NFL games and don't consider what is going on specifically in this game right now.

The strategy doesn't apply when you're down 14 with more than a quarter left to play in a game where neither defense was stopping anything.

The 2 point play wasn't a terrible decision. I think the fact that the defense was so poor was part of the reason to do it. It was unlikely that the Hawks would score 3 straight scores for the win. Our best chance was hoping we could catch up and beat them by a score.

 

[Cave_Johnson]

The 2 point play wasn't a terrible decision. I think the fact that the defense was so poor was part of the reason to do it. It was unlikely that the Hawks would score 3 straight scores for the win. Our best chance was hoping we could catch up and beat them by a score.

Yeah, not terrible but still odd and not really the proper application of that analytics play everybody always talks about.

But could be that they were just looking for an edge as you said and not even thinking about that.

 

[flyerhawk]

Yeah, not terrible but still odd and not really the proper application of that analytics play everybody always talks about.

But could be that they were just looking for an edge as you said and not even thinking about that.

Yeah. That's the first time he went for 2, IIRC. So I don't think he's just living by the numbers. But I do think he has shown himself to be aggressive.

 

[Screamin12th]

He was clearly pressing because we were down 2 scores. All of his bad plays were late in the game, down by 2 scores. When they have no fear that you are going to run it makes passing a lot harder.

Yes I know this and good QB's in that situation dont throw INT's, they dont commit TO's. Thats the difference. For Geno its not uncommon for him to do these things ( TO/INT's )

 

[JMR]

He was clearly pressing because we were down 2 scores. All of his bad plays were late in the game, down by 2 scores. When they have no fear that you are going to run it makes passing a lot harder.

And when you know you only have a couple possessions left and MUST score touchdowns on both of them, you're forced to take more risk. Earlier in the game when you know you have several more possessions to work with, getting a couple first downs and flipping the field is sometimes good enough on a given possession. That's not the case when you must get points or essentially be in a position where it's not possible to have a path to winning.

 

[Anointed One]

All in all, Geno was absolutely not the reason we lost the game on Sunday....

Geno is 4th in the league for QB's being knocked down (16) and hurried (17)...He's 11th in the NFL in sacks w/ (11)...

Seems to be standing in the pocket risking taking the hits... His receivers are 8th in the NFL in dropped passes... Yes, he does make some poor decisions but I feel he makes up for it more often that not with some money throws... One thing i've noticed is he definitely get's a lot of balls tipped at the LOS, which is odd for how tall and lanky he is... 2 of those tipped balls led to INT's... A lot of this has to do with him throwing a fastball quite often w/out much touch but his accuracy is money, especially with the amount of times he throws the ball 10+ yards downfield...

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

Nobody should be blaming Smith. And it's time to get Haynes in there full time. Bradford sucks ass.

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

All in all, Geno was absolutely not the reason we lost the game on Sunday....

Geno is 4th in the league for QB's being knocked down (16) and hurried (17)...He's 11th in the NFL in sacks w/ (11)...

Seems to be standing in the pocket risking taking the hits... His receivers are 8th in the NFL in dropped passes... Yes, he does make some poor decisions but I feel he makes up for it more often that not with some money throws... One thing i've noticed is he definitely get's a lot of balls tipped at the LOS, which is odd for how tall and lanky he is... 2 of those tipped balls led to INT's... A lot of this has to do with him throwing a fastball quite often w/out much touch but his accuracy is money, especially with the amount of times he throws the ball 10+ yards downfield...

I believe he is also top 5 in fastest pressure rate and pressure up the middle. His average release time is somewhere around 2.6 seconds yet he is among the league leaders in big time throws and completions over 20 yds. Iirc, on the PFF show (take that fwiw), they said he is top 10 in fewest turnover worthy plays. As you said, he has had some bad luck ints as much as anything. That will likely come back to the norm around 8-10 for the season and the TDs will also come up to the 30-35 range. 67% of our TDs have been scored running the ball which will even out at some point.
It's ironic that so many people that mention the Seahawks cherry pick that we hadn't faced any good QBs until this week yet don't acknowledge that Geno has faced 2 of the best secondaries in the league and one other pretty good one and all 4 teams have above average pass rush numbers. But people will never accept how good Geno really is and will cherry pick anything they can or even make up shit to justify their opinion.
All in all, it's 4 games and a long way to go. Lots of things to still work out and they will, imo. Grubb's offense is so superior to what we've ever had around here and Geno has played great thus far. Can't take that away from him. Let's see what happens over the next few weeks here. We have to take care of business vs. the Giants and then a 4 game stretch of tough competition before our bye. Come out of that at 6-3 or 7-2 and I'm happy all day long. Need to get healthy on defense first.

 

[Screamin12th]

All in all, Geno was absolutely not the reason we lost the game on Sunday....

Geno is 4th in the league for QB's being knocked down (16) and hurried (17)...He's 11th in the NFL in sacks w/ (11)...

Seems to be standing in the pocket risking taking the hits... His receivers are 8th in the NFL in dropped passes... Yes, he does make some poor decisions but I feel he makes up for it more often that not with some money throws... One thing i've noticed is he definitely get's a lot of balls tipped at the LOS, which is odd for how tall and lanky he is... 2 of those tipped balls led to INT's... A lot of this has to do with him throwing a fastball quite often w/out much touch but his accuracy is money, especially with the amount of times he throws the ball 10+ yards downfield...

No one blamed Smith for the loss, i sure as hell didn't.


Someone was just saying that Smith basically was an elite QB when he isn't. top 10 maybe but borderline, More like in that 13-16 range.

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

No one blamed Smith for the loss, i sure as hell didn't.


Someone was just saying that Smith basically was an elite QB when he isn't. top 10 maybe but borderline, More like in that 13-16 range.

I don't recall anybody proclaiming Geno to be elite. At least, not on here but maybe I missed something.Anyway, I do think he's playing good ball and this offense suits him. I do believe he is currently a top 10 QB. That could fluctuate and change as the season goes on but for now, I believe it. I did a quick mental experiment yesterday and listed all the starting QBs in the league. I removed the rookie starters because they are a moot point. I then looked at the list one by one and objectively asked myself if that QB would be better than Geno in the same circumstance or even as good with more upside. I checked 7 names as a yes and a couple of those, I wasn't completely 100% on. I found 3 that I put a ? beside that was kind of a toss-up. My thought is that if there's a question mark, it leans toward a no because it's not an upgrade. The rest were no's but some might make an argument for a couple of them. I, personally, would not but that's just my take.
I'm also on record on the main board as saying that virtually every QB from the 7-8 range to the 20 range is almost interchangeable to some degree and it becomes more of a case of coaching, scheme, situation and can fluctuate greatly week to week. As important as the position is, I do not put any stock in the notion that it's the end all, be all of building a football team. He can't be terrible, obviously but he doesn't need to be a superstar to win a championship. Actually, Brady and Mahomes are big outliers in the overall picture and players of that caliber are exceedingly rare despite the narrative that there are so many in the game.

 

[Screamin12th]

well going by ratings he is in that 13-17 range, He is fine.