Way too Early Draft Needs as of the Bye Week

[Clayton]

Haven't been watching too much CFB lately to have seen most of these non-QB's (or paid attention might be more accurate) outside the Big 12. I'll list some of my thoughts on the QB's that might be available.

Patrick Mahomes QB

Looks like a bag of physical tools and not much else. Unlike Kizer who is, imo, a lot more projectable, this looks like a total-rebuild project as much as an actual developmental process. Didn't really impress me watching his games as far as the NFL goes and plays in Tech's offense; his mechanics need a complete rebuild and that sounds more like a 5th round pick to me than the first 3 rounds like I am seeing in these mocks. Not worth the trouble to draft Tyler Bray 2.0. That raw arm strength is from an alien, however, it's not hard to see why a team with a favorable QB situation might want to take a chance, but that's not the Chiefs, nor should they pick him. Andy Reid might be a good coach, but he ain't a miracle worker.

Davis Webb QB.

Project, but not nearly as big a hot mess as Mahomes is. Has the physical skills you look for, but not really convinced he has what you're looking for from the head on up. An interesting prospect as the ceiling is there, I'd guess he goes in the late 3rd early 4th range. Deep ball is interesting. The Chiefs are averaging 130 yards in YAC a game right now. That's over half of their passing yards. Not totally against Webb here, but I have reservations if he is the pick. Takes some imagination with Webb, but it's not ridiculous either. Cal has not traditionally prepared QB's for the NFL, Rodgers very muchso appears to be an exception, not the rule.

Brad Kaaya QB.

Looks a lot like Andy Dalton to me. He has some actually pretty impressive traits when he has been kept clean which is good. But many of those traits turn to mush under pressure and all of the sudden his touch, pocket presence,accuracy, but especially his mechanics look very, very subpar; the latter being the worst kept secret, backfoot throws seem to happen every game with him. Seems like a future average QB who might be an Andy Dalton-esque force multiplier in the NFL. Could easily see him being able to stick with some work, just don't see a star. Could work for the Chiefs, but I'd be unimpressed with Kaaya's ceiling as a QB. Seems like a prime candidate to be overdrafted. 2nd round is where he should go.

DeShaun Watson QB

Not overwhelming in terms of physical tools outside of his mobility which is a major plus for me in Andy's offense, but a lot of above average tools. Nobody will confuse this guy with Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, etc to be totally clear. However, with that being said, there's a lot to like if your standard is below that of a 1:1/2 caliber QB prospect. Not so sure Watson isn't still the QB1 in this draft still in reality even after some guys have made a charge at it such as Kizer. For that reason, I am not so sure Watson is available like some negative press on him might have us believe. The main issue I see with Watson is he has some brainfarts which are honestly a bit hard to explain, and happen more often than we saw with say Luck. Those aside, I actually like a lot of his reads and field vision. I haven't gotten a chance to compare his release, but if it's quick and compact, this might be the best fit for the Chiefs and Watson. I really want to see what he does against two of the better defenses in CFB in Ohio St and Bama/Washington. If he plays well in one or both games, I think I'll be on this guy's bandwagon for the Chiefs. Has looked much better this past month. Would certainly need to sit a year, but it wouldn't be hard to see how he could succeed in the Chiefs' offense in 2018 or 2019. Not sure what a good comp would be, but I am pretty sure he has a better head on his shoulders did than RG3 did in the NFL; not sure where the RG3 comps are really coming from.

Mason Rudolph QB

Another flawed, ineffecient, and mechanically broken QB as far as the NFL is concerned. Has some arm strength but it's pretty much sapped by crappy mechanics. This looks like another backup QB prospect until proven otherwise which this draftclass seems loaded with. His reads looked very slow and clunky for a college QB even. Missed a lot of throws that should be money in the bank at the NFL level. 5th rounder as far as the Chiefs are concerned for me.

DeShone Kizer QB

Flashes some really impressive skills with his decisionmaking and fieldvision, but there are times where I am left scratching my head watching him wondering what exactly he was thinking; maybe trusted his arm too much? Speaking of his arm, this is probably the best arm talent that has been in the draft in years. With that being said, he is unlikely to be available, is a questionable fit for the Chiefs, and a lot of his stock, imo, is in future projection which is always dangerous. Not nearly as much as the projects mentioned before, but there's some real bust potential here. Has some Big Ben in him, but you got to wonder if he'll ever reach anything close to that. Seems like a guy Bruce Arians would like anyways. I would not expect him to be available at all.

Mitch Trubisky QB

Highly unlikely he is available, first things first. Mitch is nonetheless polarizing though which is an indication the QB class is not really all that well regarded. Have not gotten the chance to watch him a bunch outside of a monsoon which is madness, but in the other couple games I have seen I get the impression that the UNC offense is pretty good all around. Don't feel like I could give a fair or accurate synopsis of Mitch atm, but he seems very popular in certain circles. Walterfootball has him going first overall.

The Andy Dalton upside on Kaaya sounds pretty accurate.

My guess is Trubisky will go #1, Kizer top 10, Watson around 30-33. Webb in rd2. Kaaya in rd3.

 

[Clayton]

A good analysis on why running backs are common and why offensive line talent is pretty rare. This is very noticeable in the upcoming draft. Needless to say I don't think Belichick expects Poe to get goal line reps against the Patriots any time soon.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Patriots coach Bill Belichick delivered a lengthy soliloquy at his press conference on Wednesday about a subject that may be sore with some of his defensive players.

Belichick said that most players who play defense do so because they were once on offense but weren’t good enough. As Belichick sees it, if you’re the best playmaker on offense, you’ll stay there. It’s the guys who aren’t quite as good on offense who become defensive players.

“I mean look, a lot of defensive players get moved [from] offense because they’re not good enough on offense, right? High school coaches, college coaches, if they have somebody better and you have another good player at that position, instead of stacking them up you just move them somewhere where he can get on the field quicker,” Belichick said. “If you’re a high school or college coach you’re not going to take your best running back and put him at – I mean it’d be rare to put him somewhere else. You’re going to give him the ball and let him be a productive scorer for you.”

Belichick said that on the line, it’s the opposite: The guys who end up on the offensive line are there because they weren’t fast enough to play on the defensive line.

“Most of those guys do get moved and most of the offensive linemen get moved from defense because they don’t run well enough,” Belichick said. “If they ran better they probably would play on defense because those guys are hard to find. So to see those players offensively that can run a four-nine, five-flat [40-yard dash] at those kinds of weights, most of them are first, second-round left tackles. That’s where most of them show up. That’s a premium position on offense so if you have that kind of an athlete you probably either play him on defense or you play him at left tackle. That’s where they go. I don’t think you move a defensive lineman to the offensive line unless you’re either going to move him to left tackle or, again, you have so many defensive lineman that you can afford to move him. Usually you move them because they don’t run well enough and offensively you move them because you have other guys that can catch the ball better, or more elusive runners, or more productive playmakers and then they move. Sometimes some guys find their spot right away and they stay in it.”

So if there are any cornerbacks hoping to lobby Belichick for a chance to touch the ball on offense, don’t bother.

“That’s a general statement,” Belichick said. “It’s not meant towards any specific player. Although I think most of the defensive players need to understand that the reason they don’t play offense is because they’re not good enough to play offense.”

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Trubisky's stock would take a hit after this bowl game, imo. Should be interesting where he goes now.

 

[Clayton]

Trubisky's stock would take a hit after this bowl game, imo. Should be interesting where he goes now.

I can't imagine him falling out of the top 10 unless he bombs the combine.

NFL fans are going through their yearly ritual of thinking that it's a bad QB draft. Its like clockwork and happens almost every year. I think Andrew Luck is the only QB prospect in recent memory that wasn't picked apart.

 

[Clayton]

Chris Wormley DE. Good college film but might end up falling in the draft to the bottom of the first round as he is a bit of a tweener with no bend. Likely will be drafted as a 4-3 DT or 3-4 DE. Really strong and abused Penn St linemen all day on the edge. Got doubled routinely by Wisconsin linemen and held his ground in the run game. Likely will never be a great sacker as he lacks pass rush moves but the speed looks like it might be there and certainly the strength is NFL level. Good fit for the Chiefs imo.

OJ Howard TE. This guy could get drafted anywhere from like pick 15 to pick 50. Fantastic blocker but TEs get drafted in the first round mostly to catch the ball and his film in Alabama is mostly him blocking and getting shovel passes. Slightly clumsy with his feet sometimes in the receiving department but nothing that can't be fixed. Bama ran most of their offense through him in one way or another so thats saying something. The hands seem good enough but does he have the reps to be a receiving threat right away? Not sure the Chiefs would spend a 1st on a blocking TE but Howard has the upside to be one of the best players in the whole draft.

 

[Clayton]

A really good article on the draft:

https://theringer.com/nfl-playoffs-...wboys-patriots-chiefs-85ea73e65837#.29kcs32v3

"John Dorsey, the Kansas City Chiefs general manager, says the Chiefs are “85 percent Atlanta Braves, 15 percent Oakland A’s.” He means that the bulk of their evaluation process remains focused on traditional techniques like watching exhaustive amounts of game film and getting to know the players’ personalities; the rest, however, is pure numbers. “We blend in the analytics part of it,” Dorsey says. “We’ve crafted [a formula from combine data] and we’ve found a pretty good indicator of athleticism.” The GM says that he emphasizes scouting players who can “win” on the first step after the snap. Dorsey estimates that football gets significantly quicker every five years, meaning first steps, and the explosion that fuels them, are pivotal. He would not share the specifics of the team’s formula, but the Chiefs’ recent draft selections suggest that being able to jump — in both the vertical and broad drills — is a must for making it onto Kansas City’s radar."

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

15% Oakland A's is a LOT more than most GMs would admit. I think this further reinforces the notion that the Chiefs really draft based on the combine and the perceived explosiveness and fit.