Total dorks top 20 pitchers all time...

[MilkSpiller22]

my formula would be:

.13(seasons)+.12(innings/seasons)+(3/ERA)*23+ (1.2/Whip)*22+ k/9*.15 +QS%*12+ W%*3

i think this might work as a simple formula... there is a more complicated formula for more accuracy...

 

[obxyankeefan]

my formula would be:

.13(seasons)+.12(innings/seasons)+(3/ERA)*23+ (1.2/Whip)*22+ k/9*.15 +QS%*12+ W%*3

i think this might work as a simple formula... there is a more complicated formula for more accuracy...

I will try your formula tomorrow night, when I get the time Milk.

 

[steveringo]

Smiled when I saw Perry on there.

Steve knows why.

(This kind of thing is a bigger challenge than Im up for. Keep us filled in on the tinkering man.)

LOL! Yep....

Perry and Ryan were part of the reason I'm looking for better analysis. We need a simpler way to quantify compilers...

 

[steveringo]

my formula would be:

.13(seasons)+.12(innings/seasons)+(3/ERA)*23+ (1.2/Whip)*22+ k/9*.15 +QS%*12+ W%*3

i think this might work as a simple formula... there is a more complicated formula for more accuracy...

I'm not sold on using QS in pitcher ratings. It involves earned runs and innings - which is already inherent in ERA.... If, IP/GS is important to you, then use IP/GS...

It is also a rather arbitrary stat.... Sure it will lower pitchers like Nolan Ryan who have a ton of mediocre games with a few gems sprinkled in... But it could also boost the guy who always goes six innings and always gives up 3 ER....

 

[MilkSpiller22]

my formula would be:

.08(seasons)+.08(appearances/seasons)+.09(innings/games started)+(3/ERA)*23+ (1.2/Whip)*22+ k/9*.15 +QS%*12+ W%*3

i think this might work as a simple formula... there is a more complicated formula for more accuracy...

Fixed it since I saw a potential problem

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I'm not sold on using QS in pitcher ratings. It involves earned runs and innings - which is already inherent in ERA.... If, IP/GS is important to you, then use IP/GS...

It is also a rather arbitrary stat.... Sure it will lower pitchers like Nolan Ryan who have a ton of mediocre games with a few gems sprinkled in... But it could also boost the guy who always goes six innings and always gives up 3 ER....

I am going to start my annual thread about QS soon. It's one of my favorite pitching stats because it is the only one that measures consistency. And that's why I put it in. And it really is not as arbitrary as you may think. But let's not go into it here, just wait for my thread.

 

[steveringo]

I am going to start my annual thread about QS soon. It's one of my favorite pitching stats because it is the only one that measures consistency. And that's why I put it in. And it really is not as arbitrary as you may think. But let's not go into it here, just wait for my thread.

It defintely shows consistency and it has great value when comparing careers. I'm not sold on how much weight it should carry in any comps though. I think you could find more accurate info by breaking down IP/GS & ER/GS... Consistent 1ER/7IP is more valuable that consitent 3ER/6IP...

I guess we'll get into it on you QS thread....


But, I do agree - QS% is the way to go...

 

[The Moose]

Take this for what it is.... I wanted to combine the value of WAR & OPS+.... This list contains WAR (BR & FG), IP, ERA+, and some division, mulitplication and addition....

I started with 31 pitchers - FanGraphs top 30 in WAR plus John Clarkson as he was in BR's top 20 WAR.

As WAR is a cumulative stat, I divided both FG & BR by innings pitched, then multiplied that by 9 to get a 'per game war'... the range for FG was .277 to .122.... the range for BR was .274 to .090... I aded these together... the new range is .551 to .229...(Top ten = Pedro Matinez, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Lefty Grove, Curt Schilling, Walter Johnson, Mike Mussina, Bob Gibson, Greg Maddux, Kevin Brown)...

I divided career adjusted ERA+ by 1500, to get a similar (yet less valuable) fraction... this range was .103 to .072.... (top ten = Pedro Martinez, Lefty Grove, Walter Johnson, Roger Clemens, Kid Nichols, Cy Young, Randy Johnson, Pete Alexander, Christy Matthewson, John Clarkson)

I added these two figures to get a final range of .654 to .301.... The top 20 of this random stat:

Pedro Martinez
Roger Clemens
Lefty Grove
Randy Johnson
Curt Schilling
Walter Johnson
Mike Mussina
Bob Gibson
Greg Maddux
Kevin Brown
Tom Seaver
Cy Young
Pete Alexander
John Smoltz
Bert Blyleven
Kid Nichols
Christy Mathewson
Juan Marichal
Fergie Jenkins
Gaylord Perry
Eddie Plank


I'm still formulating a conclusion....

Sandy Koufax is not on this list, therefore it is deeply flawed.

 

[The Moose]

Koufax has become more legend than great. I don't know if he belongs on any top of 10 list.

Seriously? 3 seasons with 25+ wins, 3 Cy Youngs, One MVP, 5 ERA titles and 4 strikeout titles. If that isn't great, it doesn't exist.

 

[StanMarsh51]

Sandy Koufax is not on this list, therefore it is deeply flawed.

Well, his overall career value is hurt by how short it was (just 2400 innings), and that it was only about 5 great years....a 131 ERA+, 1.11 WHIP, 2.93 K/BB are great, but good amount of pitchers over baseball history have put up comparable numbers over a 2400 stretch...

Shoot, just look at Roy Halladay, who had a 2300 inning stretch from 2001-2011 where had a 148 ERA+, 1.11 WHIP, 4.52 K/BB....

or Curt Schilling, who had a 2400 inning stretch (1995-2006) with a 134 ERA+, 1.10 WHIP, 5.31 K/BB

or Mike Mussina, who had a near 2500+ inning stretch with a 129 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 3.60 K/BB


So while Koufax was tremendous for a 5 year stretch, his overall career is something where even 'borderline HOF pitchers' have put up comparable stretches, and I didn't even get into guys like Maddux, Pedro, Randy Johnson.

 

[steveringo]

Sandy Koufax is not on this list, therefore it is deeply flawed.

I started the list with the top 30 in WAR, so obviously, Koufax missed the initial cut....

I just added him and he came in 7th.

If I have time, I'll add a few more to try to catch the greats that had very short careers. (That was part of the reason for doing this anyway)...

 

[steveringo]

Well, his overall career value is hurt by how short it was (just 2400 innings), and that it was only about 5 great years....a 131 ERA+, 1.11 WHIP, 2.93 K/BB are great, but good amount of pitchers over baseball history have put up comparable numbers over a 2400 stretch...

Shoot, just look at Roy Halladay, who had a 2300 inning stretch from 2001-2011 where had a 148 ERA+, 1.11 WHIP, 4.52 K/BB....

or Curt Schilling, who had a 2400 inning stretch (1995-2006) with a 134 ERA+, 1.10 WHIP, 5.31 K/BB

or Mike Mussina, who had a near 2500+ inning stretch with a 129 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 3.60 K/BB


So while Koufax was tremendous for a 5 year stretch, his overall career is something where even 'borderline HOF pitchers' have put up comparable stretches, and I didn't even get into guys like Maddux, Pedro, Randy Johnson.

In my original formula, I divide WAR by IP, so the short timers would be included. My original baseline was just incomplete.

If I include all pitchers, I think the list will basically show something like "mound dominance". Or, who really just kicked ass while they pitched...

Where to make the IP cutoff can be up for debate...

 

[steveringo]

Kevin Brown's appearance on this list made me look at his career.

From 1992 to 2003 his ERA+ was 139. In half of those years his ERA was under 3.00 and in '96 it was under 2.00 (a 215 ERA+ !). That is quite an accomplishment in the middle of the steroid era...

I suspect the veterans committee will give this guy a second look as well... As soon as they accept that everyone was juicing, I think they can debate the validity of "Kevin Brown, Hall of Famer"...

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Kevin Brown's appearance on this list made me look at his career.

From 1992 to 2003 his ERA+ was 139. In half of those years his ERA was under 3.00 and in '96 it was under 2.00 (a 215 ERA+ !). That is quite an accomplishment in the middle of the steroid era...

I suspect the veterans committee will give this guy a second look as well... As soon as they accept that everyone was juicing, I think they can debate the validity of "Kevin Brown, Hall of Famer"...

I agree that kevin brown should be seriously considered to make the HOF...

 

[MilkSpiller22]

there should also be a statistic that shows how many seasons a player surpasses or is near his career average...

 

[gunnarthor]

Before clicking on this, I said, "I bet he's made something that has Pedro #1". And lo and behold, we reduce WAR and IP and increase ERA+. Viola!

Pedro - 18 year career - 219-100, 2.93 ERA (154 ERA+), 2827ip, 4.15SO/W, 87 WAR
Maddux - 91-02 - 213-99, 2.55 ERA (164 ERA+), 2839ip, 4.32 SO/W, 81 WAR. And he pitched another 2000 innings worth 27 WAR. (Basically, AJ Burnett's career).

 

[DragonfromTO]

Has anyone pointed out that Mariano Rivera would lead this list by quite a bit? Or am I calculating something wrong? I'm not sure how good and complete a stat is at valuing the contributions of starters when a reliever (and he's probably not the only one) scores better than any starter.

 

[gunnarthor]

Has anyone pointed out that Mariano Rivera would lead this list by quite a bit? Or am I calculating something wrong? I'm not sure how good and complete a stat is at valuing the contributions of starters when a reliever (and he's probably not the only one) scores better than any starter.

It's DragonfromTO! Wow, it's like the old ESPN boards. Did you help riot when Rush was inducted into the Rock and Roll HOF?