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POLL Top 10 poll: #15 player ever

Who is the #15 player in baseball history? Vote for 3!!


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calsnowskier

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The problem I have with Pedro this high is that it would signal that we're valuing peak and Hank Aaron's peak is nowhere near where he went off the board.
I think pitching is much more susceptible to SSS, so I value longevity for pitchers more than I do for hitters. But I still value longevity for hitters (something this project specifically has adjusted my opinion on).
 

msgkings322

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The problem I have with Pedro this high is that it would signal that we're valuing peak and Hank Aaron's peak is nowhere near where he went off the board.
That’s actually expected and part of the fun too. Different criteria for different voters making the outcome unpredictable. Aaron is such a legend and has such strong compilation stats that it overcomes his lack of peak. Someone like Palmeiro doesn’t have enough to overcome that. Meanwhile others have such strong peaks it overcomes their lack of compiling. Fascinating process
 

Clayton

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I think pitching is much more susceptible to SSS, so I value longevity for pitchers more than I do for hitters. But I still value longevity for hitters (something this project specifically has adjusted my opinion on).
There does seem to be a lot more of 'if I could have any pitcher for one game its ___' when it comes to the evaluation.

And I doubt people are just focusing on Mathewson having 3 shutouts in the WS.
 
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MilkSpiller22

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But it still represents us as a whole. We all have varying opinions of how the list should be. I created a thread specifically for that which was completely ignored, btw.

I don’t agree with many of the votes. But I accept every single one. It represents us AS A WHOLE, but none of us INDIVIDUALLY.

I would disagree to that this represents us as a whole... it represents the process we are using... which is a very fair and decent process...

but I do think that for the most part anything that gets a second or third runoff, will be more a vote against than a vote for... as we are knocking out many voters number one vote...

I think this last vote was that... from runoff 1 to runoff 2 we threw out about 10 peoples number one vote... now we are asking them who would they rather win, someone who they don't think should win, or someone they don't think should win even more...
 

MilkSpiller22

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I think pitching is much more susceptible to SSS, so I value longevity for pitchers more than I do for hitters. But I still value longevity for hitters (something this project specifically has adjusted my opinion on).

yea, this experiment has made me sour on longevity more,... and I thought I always liked it...
 

Cedrique

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I think pitching is much more susceptible to SSS, so I value longevity for pitchers more than I do for hitters. But I still value longevity for hitters (something this project specifically has adjusted my opinion on).
I agree with that. If you watch baseball a lot you'll remember there is a big variance from year to year. I remember a lot of guys considered "best pitcher right now". Some times it lasts a couple months, sometimes a year or even 2. Even the great pitchers aren't that way every year but they achieve that status multiple times in their careers.

I remember when Mike Scott was "the guy" for a year or 2.
 

Cedrique

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WAR162 is also pretty worthless, imho. It excuses brittle ass bitches.
I see your point. I included those partial seasons with Trout to bring his numbers down a little. If you exclude them his numbers are elite but you only get 8 seasons, which is less than most position players we're looking at. (although he did an awful lot with those 8 seasons)

*it's 8 seasons but he also has a 115 game season and the 60 game Covid year which is shortened for reasons beyond his brittleness.

But I get it.
 

calsnowskier

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I would disagree to that this represents us as a whole... it represents the process we are using... which is a very fair and decent process...

but I do think that for the most part anything that gets a second or third runoff, will be more a vote against than a vote for... as we are knocking out many voters number one vote...

I think this last vote was that... from runoff 1 to runoff 2 we threw out about 10 peoples number one vote... now we are asking them who would they rather win, someone who they don't think should win, or someone they don't think should win even more...
That’s how it works for a group. You pick the best of what’s available. I think you are the only one who is totally distraught about that. Again, I created a thread for individual lists, and it was co l,Emely ignored. As I completely expected it would be.
 

calsnowskier

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yea, this experiment has made me sour on longevity more,... and I thought I always liked it...
I think that just means we came in with different starting points. I suspected you pulled me closer to the “accumulator” side, and I brought you further to the “peak” side.

And that is what a good open debate is supposed to do.

:suds:
 

calsnowskier

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I agree with that. If you watch baseball a lot you'll remember there is a big variance from year to year. I remember a lot of guys considered "best pitcher right now". Some times it lasts a couple months, sometimes a year or even 2. Even the great pitchers aren't that way every year but they achieve that status multiple times in their careers.

I remember when Mike Scott was "the guy" for a year or 2.
Yup.

Mike Scott was THE guy in the late 80s. Timmeh was THE guy in the late ‘00s. Doc was THE guy in the mid ‘80s.

None of these guys were able to keep it up long enough to be in this conversation.
 

MilkSpiller22

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I think that just means we came in with different starting points. I suspected you pulled me closer to the “accumulator” side, and I brought you further to the “peak” side.

And that is what a good open debate is supposed to do.

:suds:

I was always more of a peak guy. But now I am just much more of a peak guy. And I even care about the high point of someone’s peak more than ever.
 

calsnowskier

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I see your point. I included those partial seasons with Trout to bring his numbers down a little. If you exclude them his numbers are elite but you only get 8 seasons, which is less than most position players we're looking at. (although he did an awful lot with those 8 seasons)

*it's 8 seasons but he also has a 115 game season and the 60 game Covid year which is shortened for reasons beyond his brittleness.

But I get it.
I might we willing to compromise on ‘20 by tripling the WAR for the purpose of WAR#. But that also just takes a SSS and assumes it would have been maintained over 162. And that NEVER happens. So maybe doubling is a better compromise. But that is arbitrary as well.
 

calsnowskier

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I was always more of a peak guy. But now I am just much more of a peak guy. And I even care about the high point of someone’s peak more than ever.
I think looking at multiple WAR#s is more helpful than JUST looking at WAR7. But I do agree that WAR7 is probably the best STARTING POINT for WAR# discussions.
 

MilkSpiller22

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That’s how it works for a group. You pick the best of what’s available. I think you are the only one who is totally distraught about that. Again, I created a thread for individual lists, and it was co l,Emely ignored. As I completely expected it would be.

Distraught is a very strong word. I don’t care what the group thinks. I have well accepted that the group and I are not going to agree.

But I am also not sold that this represents us as a group either. This only represents the process. And no, this is not the only process a group can use. It’s a fair one. I am not questioning anything here.

Just acknowledging that if we did this vote other ways. Just as fair ways. We would be getting totally different results.
 

MilkSpiller22

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I think looking at multiple WAR#s is more helpful than JUST looking at WAR7. But I do agree that WAR7 is probably the best STARTING POINT for WAR# discussions.

war7 is only a good start. But it can’t be the only.

Also I think longevity of peak is very important.
 

calsnowskier

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Distraught is a very strong word. I don’t care what the group thinks. I have well accepted that the group and I are not going to agree.

But I am also not sold that this represents us as a group either. This only represents the process. And no, this is not the only process a group can use. It’s a fair one. I am not questioning anything here.

Just acknowledging that if we did this vote other ways. Just as fair ways. We would be getting totally different results.
The only a few real “other ways” to do this type of poll…

Do a single poll for each spot, but that just encourages voter blocks and all slots would be complete BS.

Do some kind of top 10 weighted vote, but that would scare away all casual voters, so it would die by the 5th spot, IF IT EVEN GETS THERE. Not to mention that the weighing of those 10 spots (or however many you decide would be appropriate) would be arbitrary as well.

This system is scientific. I grant myself a little freedom in who advances from the nomination stage to the actual voting stage, but that is really just so the actual voting stage isn’t completely lost to noise.

There is no perfect voting system. There have been studies on this for years. Each has strengths. Each have weeknesses. But doing a 50+1 runoff system, imho, is the strongest, most accurate system. It wouldn’t work on a larger scale because each runoff would create a $$ cost that makes it prohibitive. But at this scale, with little to no cost involved, it really is the best system. There will be some fuzziness around the edges, but it will get the list pretty close.
 

Cedrique

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I might we willing to compromise on ‘20 by tripling the WAR for the purpose of WAR#. But that also just takes a SSS and assumes it would have been maintained over 162. And that NEVER happens. So maybe doubling is a better compromise. But that is arbitrary as well.
No I wouldn't want to give him artificial WAR for something he didn't do. I was just saying that since I kind of throw out partial seasons we could still include that one. But I don't think it matters much. To move up the rankings he really needs to put up another full season or 2 at a high level. (Which at age 32-33 isn't out of the question). I have him selected right now, but I may slide him out for someone else.

And now that I think about it, fuck 2020! They were playing at weird locations, cancelling games.....I'm throwing the whole season out! And screw you Dodgers fans!


Let's give it up for the San Antonio Spurs, y'all!
 
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MilkSpiller22

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The only a few real “other ways” to do this type of poll…

Do a single poll for each spot, but that just encourages voter blocks and all slots would be complete BS.

Do some kind of top 10 weighted vote, but that would scare away all casual voters, so it would die by the 5th spot, IF IT EVEN GETS THERE. Not to mention that the weighing of those 10 spots (or however many you decide would be appropriate) would be arbitrary as well.

This system is scientific. I grant myself a little freedom in who advances from the nomination stage to the actual voting stage, but that is really just so the actual voting stage isn’t completely lost to noise.

There is no perfect voting system. There have been studies on this for years. Each has strengths. Each have weeknesses. But doing a 50+1 runoff system, imho, is the strongest, most accurate system. It wouldn’t work on a larger scale because each runoff would create a $$ cost that makes it prohibitive. But at this scale, with little to no cost involved, it really is the best system. There will be some fuzziness around the edges, but it will get the list pretty close.

In no way am I making any comment about this system not being a good one. You don’t need to defend it. We all thank you for doing this. I agree you are probably using the easiest of the fair and just systems given the abilities of the site we are using.

I am just acknowledging that some picks were more about the system than how people actually believe. And pointing out that the biggest flaw with our system is when there are multiple runoffs.
But I am only pointing it out. Not questioning the results.
 

calsnowskier

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No I wouldn't want to give him artificial WAR for something he didn't do. I was just saying that since I kind of throw out partial seasons we could still include that one. But I don't think it matters much. To move up the rankings he really needs to put up another full season or 2 at a high level. (Which at age 32-33 isn't out of the question). I have him selected right now, but I may slide him out for someone else.

And now that I think about it, fuck 2020! They were playing at weird locations, cancelling games.....I'm throwing the whole season out! And screw you Dodgers fans!


Let's give it up for the San Antonio Spurs, y'all!
I Love You Dogs GIF by Chippy the Dog
 

calsnowskier

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Tris Speaker (CF) 1907 - 1928

1 MVP, 1 top 5 MVP, 1 top 10 MVP, 1 additional season receiving MVP votes (MVP only given in 4 years of his career)

135.0, 62.1

Bold: RBI - 1, 2B - 8, HR - 1, OPS - 1, TB - 1, all time 2B

OPS+ buckets

180 - 3
160 - 6
140 - 6
120 - 2

Shohei Ohtani (DH) 2018 - current

3 MVP, 1 top 5 CY, 1 top 5 MVP, ROY, 3 ASG

28.7, 28.7

Bold: R - 1, 3B - 1, HR - 2, RBI - 1, OPS - 2, TB - 2

OPS+ buckets

180 - 2
160 - 0
140 - 3
120 - 1

Joe DiMaggio (CF) 1936 - 1951 (3 years lost to WWII)

3 MVP, 3 top 5 MVP, 4 top 10 MVP, 2 additional seasons with MVP votes, 13 ASG (AS every year of career)

79.1, 52.1

Bold: R - 1, 3B - 1, HR - 2, RBI - 2, TB - 3

OPS+ buckets

180 - 2
160 - 3
140 - 4
120 - 2

Yogi Berra (C) 1946 - 1965

3 MVP, 4 top 5 MVP, 8 additional seasons with MVP votes, 15 ASG (3 years with 2 ASG)

59.5, 38.2

Bold: NA

OPS+ buckets

180 - 0
160 - 0
140 - 2
120 - 7
 
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