too soon for an NFL thread?

[Bizzle McDizzle]

Speaking of quarterbacks, there is a chance a couple of active quarterbacks could break a couple of Brett Favre's career passing records. I have run some calculations on the types of seasons each of Manning, Brees, and Brady will have to have until they are 38, 39, and 40, assuming the retire after the season in which they turn that age in order to break the completions, yards, and touchdowns records.

Each is reported as completions/yards/touchdowns in format.

38
Manning 609/6175.5/36
Brees 453/5183.8/36.8
Brady 834/9010.7/58

39
Manning 406/4117/24
Brees 377.5/4319.8/30.7
Brady 625.5/6758/43.5

40
Manning 304.5/3087.8/18
Brees 323.6/3702.7/26.3
Brady 500.4/5406.4/34.8

It seems likely to me that Brady will be on the outside looking in on everything but touchdowns, Manning is just about a lock for all three categories, and Brees has a good shot at all three, with touchdowns as just about a lock. Of course, this could all change with injury or something, but the fact is that we have seen some incredible quarterback play this decade or so.

I have saved the spreadsheet and will update this next season as well.

:confused2::bored:



:sagan:

 

[Bizzle McDizzle]

this thread now has too many words



to many words

 

[DaBoltsNIsles]

I think interceptions are pretty important. Here's why, from ESPN...
"Since 2000, teams that have been plus-1 in turnover margin have won 92 of 128 postseason games (a winning percentage of .719). Teams that have lost the turnover battle have won just 14.8 percent of the time."

72% is an incredibly high correlation, so I think picks are pretty important and there is good evidence to suggest they are. TDs are also clearly important. RG3 was without his biggest playmaker and TD scorer in Garcon most of the year and TE Fred Davis since Week 5. In the 7 games with Garcon actually healthy and on the field this year, Griffin had 14 passing TDs (2 per game). And Garcon STILL led the team in yards after the catch despite missing more than half the year. Simply put, RG3 had limited options for guys to make plays and get to the end zone. I give Wilson credit on that front, too. I don't think he has a ton of weapons yet in Seattle either. How would Luck have fared this year if Reggie Wayne had been injured most of the year? If RG3 had more weapons, he might have more passing touchdowns and fewer with his feet. But at the end of the day (taking away defensive scores), Washington put up 398 points, Seattle 384 points, and Indy had 336 points. They all led their offenses to strong seasons with Seattle and Washington in a near dead heat, and Indy lagging behind a little.

I don't know why you give so little credence to the rushing yards. RG3 gets a lot of credit for opening up the running game for Morris, too. Since RG3 often freezes defenders, Morris is able to get to his gap with one less defender in pursuit. Over the last 5 games, Morris averaged 5.5 yds per carry with RG3 behind center, and only 3.2 yards with Cousins back there. He should get credit for the rushing success, both directly and indirectly. It's not a tiebreaker.

As to Luck, everyone wants to talk about how bad Indy was and their record last year - two things on that. FIRST, I don't understand why the Redskins are getting so much credit. We've been 5-11, 6-10, and 4-12 the last three seasons. We hadn't won the division since 1999. We had $18 million less to spend than other teams. Our O-line was ranked 27th in the league last season. We had a mediocre receiver corp. at best to start the year and our two best receivers were out most of the year. SECOND, the defense for both Seattle and Indy is much stronger than ours. The Skins held opponents to 20 points or fewer just 3 times this year. Indy did it 8 times. Seattle did it freakin' 13 times. If you want to be honest about how good the teams are, let's stop shouting 2-14! 2-14! and look at the actual facts. Seattle and Indy held opponents to fewer points and were more consistent on defense THIS season. That plays into the record every bit as much as these quarterbacks do.

In any case, good posts, Darkstone. We agree on most of it, even if we differ on a few things.

I just think the people talking about the pressure on Luck and the poor team around him aren't giving enough credit to the pressure and the poor team around RG3. I NEVER thought we'd make the playoffs. I thought 7-9 and RG3 showing us half of what he did would be a successful year. DaBolts sure has changed his tune. At the RG3 trade, he said:



And now...



Every NFL team plays in close games. The good teams win those games and the poor teams don't. First rule of lawyering - if you can, hang them with their own words.

First of all I never questioned RG3's ability. I questioned the team who took him. I still do. We shall see what this team does going forward. They made the playoffs, which is a great start. The trade will be judged by how many Super Bowls each team wins as far as I'm concerned. Both teams got better this year. The Future is up in the air.

As for RG3 deserving the Offensive Rookie of the Year award over Luck & Wilson. Sorry, I just don't believe he does. If RG3 were in Indy he's probably on I.R. right now, fortunately we'll never know.

 

[elocomotive]

First of all I never questioned RG3's ability. I questioned the team who took him. I still do. We shall see what this team does going forward. They made the playoffs, which is a great start. The trade will be judged by how many Super Bowls each team wins as far as I'm concerned. Both teams got better this year. The Future is up in the air.

Riiiiiiiight... that's what I was saying. I never talked about the trade aside from the context of your assessment of the Redskins' talent level now and then. I find it uninformed and disengenuous.

As for RG3 deserving the Offensive Rookie of the Year award over Luck & Wilson. Sorry, I just don't believe he does. If RG3 were in Indy he's probably on I.R. right now, fortunately we'll never know.

Why is he on IR in Indy? He was sacked 30 times in DC and Luck has been sacked 41. Do you honestly think he RG3 hasn't avoided at least 11 sacks where Luck would have been tackled this year? That's laughable.

Okay, I'm done with this with you now because you misinterpret something in almost every post I make and you use irrelevant facts or unsupported information to respond, so a debate/conversation is impossible.

 

[elocomotive]

Speaking of quarterbacks, there is a chance a couple of active quarterbacks could break a couple of Brett Favre's career passing records. I have run some calculations on the types of seasons each of Manning, Brees, and Brady will have to have until they are 38, 39, and 40, assuming the retire after the season in which they turn that age in order to break the completions, yards, and touchdowns records.

Cool.

 

[esls79]

Speaking of quarterbacks, there is a chance a couple of active quarterbacks could break a couple of Brett Favre's career passing records. I have run some calculations on the types of seasons each of Manning, Brees, and Brady will have to have until they are 38, 39, and 40, assuming the retire after the season in which they turn that age in order to break the completions, yards, and touchdowns records.

Each is reported as completions/yards/touchdowns in format.

38
Manning 609/6175.5/36
Brees 453/5183.8/36.8
Brady 834/9010.7/58

39
Manning 406/4117/24
Brees 377.5/4319.8/30.7
Brady 625.5/6758/43.5

40
Manning 304.5/3087.8/18
Brees 323.6/3702.7/26.3
Brady 500.4/5406.4/34.8

It seems likely to me that Brady will be on the outside looking in on everything but touchdowns, Manning is just about a lock for all three categories, and Brees has a good shot at all three, with touchdowns as just about a lock. Of course, this could all change with injury or something, but the fact is that we have seen some incredible quarterback play this decade or so.

I have saved the spreadsheet and will update this next season as well.

I think it's more a shift of the NFL rules than anything else - good qb's but they have all the rules in their favor today.

 

[pixburgher66]

If the Colts had Wilson or RGIII as their starting QB this Season, the Colts don't make the PO's. Just my opinion.

Sorry, jumping in late on this arguement. I think each team built their roster for the QB they got though. Luck is a Pro-style QB, and the Colts rebuilt for that, just like the Skins prepared for an RGIII style offense. All this said, I still put Wilson as the RotY. Luck's biggest blemish is the interceptions.

 

[BOSSMANPC]

Plenty of talent on paper, but they are the worst defense the Bills have ever had. Hard to figure that one out considering the Bills have had some really shitty seasons in their history.

No, Marv got out as soon as he could. It was a terrible decision to bring him back in the first place.

I was VERY encouraged by today's press conference. For those that do not know. Ralph Wilson is no longer involved in ANY football decision's and has turned over the complete football operations to Russ Brandon. Brandon apologized to the Bills fans for the teams long run of being mediocre and in his words becoming irrelevant in the NFL.

He promised that there will be no financial constrictions in the hunt to find a top notch head coach. BTW this is something Wilson has been guilty of for years now.

I was honestly encouraged by his press conference and hope things turn around. I'm realistic and know it will not happen overnight but I feel with Wilson staying out of the picture and if we get a quality head coach and quarterback things will turn around.

I am not alone when I say IMO this team does have a pretty good group of young players that obviously had very little direction last year. Regardless of what the statistics show this team is better than the team was three years ago when the last coaching change was made and should be more attractive to getting a quality coach here.

 

[elocomotive]

I was VERY encouraged by today's press conference. For those that do not know. Ralph Wilson is no longer involved in ANY football decision's and has turned over the complete football operations to Russ Brandon. Brandon apologized to the Bills fans for the teams long run of being mediocre and in his words becoming irrelevant in the NFL...

Lots of change in Buffalo for the Sabres and the Bills. Hope it brings you guys success. They need a little "Now Under New Management" sign to hang on this...

 

[BOSSMANPC]

Lots of change in Buffalo for the Sabres and the Bills. Hope it brings you guys success. They need a little "Now Under New Management" sign to hang on this...

I just hope they work out for both teams eloco. This old boy really doesn't want to die without having the chance to celebrate a championship. I really feel bad for the fans here because they are good faithful fans and deserve a championship. I always think of my brother that wanted to be buried in his Bills jersey (and he was because that's what he wanted).

I want to be buried in a Bills or Sabres championship jersey.

The Bills won the AFL title in 65 but that doesn't count because the NFL was the top dog. We have won a couple of indoor Lacrosse championships and although they're nice it's really not considered a major sport.

 

[elocomotive]

Hypothetical question... Which rookie QB class will end up being the best? We don't know what all these great rookie QBs will do yet, but if you had to guess, who are you putting your money on?

1983 class - Dan Marino, John Elway, Jim Kelly, Tony Eason, Ken O'Brien, Todd Blackledge

2012 class - Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, Nike Foles, Kirk Cousins

 

[Darkstone42]

Hypothetical question... Which rookie QB class will end up being the best? We don't know what all these great rookie QBs will do yet, but if you had to guess, who are you putting your money on?

1983 class - Dan Marino, John Elway, Jim Kelly, Tony Eason, Ken O'Brien, Todd Blackledge

2012 class - Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, Nike Foles, Kirk Cousins

Marino, Elway, and Kelly alone are going to be very difficult to beat for any class, so I'm going with 1983. Unless one of the 2012 class gets touted as the best of all time like Marino, I don't think they'll even come close. And while I think Luck, RG3, and Wilson will all be very good, and the rest could be serviceable, I don't see any of those three approaching Marino. They might all approach Elway and Kelly, but none of them will get to Marino's level.

 

[DChero]

What's with the Muscle Hamster not being in the running for ORotY? To me, the three QBs seem to all be about even. Is there a rookie runningback that has helped his team that much (as season)? Nope. I think that Martin deserves to be mentioned as much as any QB.

 

[jstewismybastardson]

enjoyed the effort and idea the producer of this "smackdown" video was tryin to go with but i must say ... i needed some adderall in order to focus and watch the whole thing

 

[DaBoltsNIsles]

I was VERY encouraged by today's press conference. For those that do not know. Ralph Wilson is no longer involved in ANY football decision's and has turned over the complete football operations to Russ Brandon. Brandon apologized to the Bills fans for the teams long run of being mediocre and in his words becoming irrelevant in the NFL.

He promised that there will be no financial constrictions in the hunt to find a top notch head coach. BTW this is something Wilson has been guilty of for years now.

I was honestly encouraged by his press conference and hope things turn around. I'm realistic and know it will not happen overnight but I feel with Wilson staying out of the picture and if we get a quality head coach and quarterback things will turn around.

I am not alone when I say IMO this team does have a pretty good group of young players that obviously had very little direction last year. Regardless of what the statistics show this team is better than the team was three years ago when the last coaching change was made and should be more attractive to getting a quality coach here.

Buffalo should hire Lovie Smith. The guy knows Defense & the Bills have a lot of talent on that side of the ball. They just played like crap. They need to do what Chicago didn't & that's hire an O.C. who actually knows what he's doing.

Lovie is interested in the job, but no word on whether or not the Bills are interested in interviewing him. Mike McCoy would be a mistake for any team. I don't care what he did with Tebow last year. The offense Denver ran was the only one Tebow could play in. Anyone could have come up with it. The Broncos run Peyton Mannings offense. I see McCoy as nothing more than a figure head.

 

[puckhead]

ray lewis is retiring at the end of the season.
presumably to spend more quality time with his knives.

 

[BOSSMANPC]

Buffalo should hire Lovie Smith. The guy knows Defense & the Bills have a lot of talent on that side of the ball. They just played like crap. They need to do what Chicago didn't & that's hire an O.C. who actually knows what he's doing.

Lovie is interested in the job, but no word on whether or not the Bills are interested in interviewing him. Mike McCoy would be a mistake for any team. I don't care what he did with Tebow last year. The offense Denver ran was the only one Tebow could play in. Anyone could have come up with it. The Broncos run Peyton Mannings offense. I see McCoy as nothing more than a figure head.

I think the Bills are going to interview Smith (He contacted the Bills about the job) I wouldn't mind seeing him here. They are also interested in The Cards head coach and Horton the defensive Co. Kelly from Oregon is also a possibility.

Don't forget the league has a rule that each team is required to interview black coaches, not sure what the percent is or how many.

 

[elocomotive]

You guys think Kyle Shanahan will land a head coaching gig this offseason? The guy is a fantastic offensive mind and playcaller.

I'm a little worried somebody might swoop in and grab him, though I'm sure Snyder can (and will) match big money since coach salaries don't impact the cap. Have to keep him. He deserves a lot of credit this year and was unfairly criticized in years past in this town.

 

[Forty_Sixand2]

I think that two things will keep Kyle here:

1. Snyder's bank account.
2. The ability to coach RGIII who fits the system perfectly. Outside of MAYBE Carolina, no other job can really offer that.

I think that we will hold onto him for a few more years.

On a side note, I was reading a mock draft today for 2014 (I am a nerd I know) and the Rams pick (from the Skins) was....
























#32!!!!

 

[DaBoltsNIsles]

You guys think Kyle Shanahan will land a head coaching gig this offseason? The guy is a fantastic offensive mind and playcaller.

I'm a little worried somebody might swoop in and grab him, though I'm sure Snyder can (and will) match big money since coach salaries don't impact the cap. Have to keep him. He deserves a lot of credit this year and was unfairly criticized in years past in this town.

His dad made it clear the other day no assistant coach is to interview with any team until the Redskins are out of the playoffs. I think there's a lot of competition for certain people right now. Reid in AZ looks like a done deal.

Timing is everything. I think Kyle should get some interviews. I think he would be a good fit in Carolina if they let Rivera go.