too soon for an NFL thread?

[elocomotive]

Awesome.

 

[BOSSMANPC]

FYI, Eloco needs one more post for 16,000. Todays trivia.

 

[elocomotive]

FYI, Eloco needs one more post for 16,000. Todays trivia.

I need what now?

 

[elocomotive]

Damn it. Romo'd it.

 

[IPostedWhat]

That time of the year where Africa gets another shipment of NFL merchandise.

 

[elocomotive]

That time of the year where Africa gets another shipment of NFL merchandise.

"Whoa whoa woah we must realize...
that a change will never co...ome
'Til we... stand together as one!"

 

[elocomotive]

I already ordered my shirt. Ya know, we only do this twice every 3 decades or so...

 

[IPostedWhat]

I already ordered my shirt. Ya know, we only do this twice every 3 decades or so...

Nice, do they make them in men's sizes?

 

[elocomotive]

Nice, do they make then in men's sizes?

What do ya.... oh no!!!

 

[IPostedWhat]

 

[dash]

FarhanLaljiTSN: #Seahawks make it official, Brandon Browner has returned to the active roster.

 

[DaBoltsNIsles]

We can agree to disagree I guess. Luck won more games on a team with a lot less talent. He put up better passing numbers. He was forced to win games by himself because he didn't have a running game to speak of & it's not like the defense was good either. You can all you want, those are RG3's stats for those games. It's not like he was lighting his opponents up on a weekly basis. You wanted stats & I gave them too you.

 

[DaBoltsNIsles]

Over the past 3 Seasons under Gailey, the Bills record against teams with winning records was 1-19. The only win was against the Pats.

Now the Bills will bring in the next Coach that no one wanted and repeat the cycle again.

They said on NFL Network that Lovie Smith is interested in the Bills & Cardinals jobs. Don't know if Buffalo is interested in him though.

 

[IPostedWhat]

We can agree to disagree I guess. Luck won more games on a team with a lot less talent. He put up better passing numbers. He was forced to win games by himself because he didn't have a running game to speak of & it's not like the defense was good either. You can all you want, those are RG3's stats for those games. It's not like he was lighting his opponents up on a weekly basis. You wanted stats & I gave them too you.

If the Colts had Wilson or RGIII as their starting QB this Season, the Colts don't make the PO's. Just my opinion.

They said on NFL Network that Lovie Smith is interested in the Bills & Cardinals jobs. Don't know if Buffalo is interested in him though.

The Bills won't get Lovie because he's a good coach who has proven he can win the NFL. The Bills will get some 90 year old guy who still thinks the Earth is flat, and will tell the Bills he's going to try a new play he's heard of called the "forward pass".

I'm just hoping they don't fuck up their pick in the 1st Round.

 

[DaBoltsNIsles]

If the Colts had Wilson or RGIII as their starting QB this Season, the Colts don't make the PO's. Just my opinion.




The Bills won't get Lovie because he's a good coach who has proven he can win the NFL. The Bills will get some 90 year old guy who still thinks the Earth is flat, and will tell the Bills he's going to try a new play he's heard of called the "forward pass".

I'm just hoping they don't fuck up their pick in the 1st Round.

Have a little faith IPW I know it's tough, but hopefully they make the right decision on the Head Coach. I think Lovie would be a great hire. The Bills have plenty of talent on D. Lovie just needs to hire a good O.C. & they could get better quickly. Is Marv Levy still in the Bills Front Office & involved in all decisions?

 

[IPostedWhat]

The Bills have plenty of talent on D. Is Marv Levy still in the Bills Front Office & involved in all decisions?

Plenty of talent on paper, but they are the worst defense the Bills have ever had. Hard to figure that one out considering the Bills have had some really shitty seasons in their history.

No, Marv got out as soon as he could. It was a terrible decision to bring him back in the first place.

 

[elocomotive]

We can agree to disagree I guess. Luck won more games on a team with a lot less talent. He put up better passing numbers. He was forced to win games by himself because he didn't have a running game to speak of & it's not like the defense was good either. You can all you want, those are RG3's stats for those games. It's not like he was lighting his opponents up on a weekly basis. You wanted stats & I gave them too you.

 

[Darkstone42]

Not sure how you can say that - they are almost identical. Same # of attempts but RG3 has more completions, more yards, better yards per attempt, etc. Wilson has 30% more TDs, but 100% more picks. And when you include rushing TDs, Wilson had only 3 more scores... in 2 more games. They are identical in the passing game just about.

The yards on the ground count the same whether it's a QB or RB that get them. RG3 turned many busted plays into 1st downs and preserved drives with his legs. That's the difference to me. The Skins went from 288 points last year on offense to 436 this season - a 50% improvement. Seattle went from 321 to 412. Skins went from the 4th worst red zone team to the 4th best red zone team. Seattle went from 22nd to 10th in red zone. Redskins went from 25th rushing attack to #1. Seattle went from 21st to #3. The improvement was very evident for both teams. The Skins improvement is simply more dramatic and given that RG3 had a heavier role and more responsibility than Wilson, he gets even more of the credit for that improvement.

The only statistically significant difference in the passing stats are the touchdown and interception counts, and I weigh touchdowns more heavily than interceptions. In those two, the net difference, not percent difference, is relevant, and Wilson had six more touchdowns and five more interceptions than Griffin, ergo under my criteria, Wilson was the better passer this season. I also assess quarterbacks almost exclusively on their passing ability. Running can offer a tiebreaker.

I also think long term that Wilson has better passing tools, but that's not a consideration for ROY. I just think his arm is a bit better and his delivery is smoother, which will lead to him posting better passing numbers than RG3 in future years. Since RG3 is the better runner, it's still a toss-up who will be the better all-around player long term, though.

 

[Darkstone42]

Speaking of quarterbacks, there is a chance a couple of active quarterbacks could break a couple of Brett Favre's career passing records. I have run some calculations on the types of seasons each of Manning, Brees, and Brady will have to have until they are 38, 39, and 40, assuming the retire after the season in which they turn that age in order to break the completions, yards, and touchdowns records.

Each is reported as completions/yards/touchdowns in format.

38
Manning 609/6175.5/36
Brees 453/5183.8/36.8
Brady 834/9010.7/58

39
Manning 406/4117/24
Brees 377.5/4319.8/30.7
Brady 625.5/6758/43.5

40
Manning 304.5/3087.8/18
Brees 323.6/3702.7/26.3
Brady 500.4/5406.4/34.8

It seems likely to me that Brady will be on the outside looking in on everything but touchdowns, Manning is just about a lock for all three categories, and Brees has a good shot at all three, with touchdowns as just about a lock. Of course, this could all change with injury or something, but the fact is that we have seen some incredible quarterback play this decade or so.

I have saved the spreadsheet and will update this next season as well.

 

[elocomotive]

The only statistically significant difference in the passing stats are the touchdown and interception counts, and I weigh touchdowns more heavily than interceptions.

I think interceptions are pretty important. Here's why, from ESPN...
"Since 2000, teams that have been plus-1 in turnover margin have won 92 of 128 postseason games (a winning percentage of .719). Teams that have lost the turnover battle have won just 14.8 percent of the time."

72% is an incredibly high correlation, so I think picks are pretty important and there is good evidence to suggest they are. TDs are also clearly important. RG3 was without his biggest playmaker and TD scorer in Garcon most of the year and TE Fred Davis since Week 5. In the 7 games with Garcon actually healthy and on the field this year, Griffin had 14 passing TDs (2 per game). And Garcon STILL led the team in yards after the catch despite missing more than half the year. Simply put, RG3 had limited options for guys to make plays and get to the end zone. I give Wilson credit on that front, too. I don't think he has a ton of weapons yet in Seattle either. How would Luck have fared this year if Reggie Wayne had been injured most of the year? If RG3 had more weapons, he might have more passing touchdowns and fewer with his feet. But at the end of the day (taking away defensive scores), Washington put up 398 points, Seattle 384 points, and Indy had 336 points. They all led their offenses to strong seasons with Seattle and Washington in a near dead heat, and Indy lagging behind a little.

I don't know why you give so little credence to the rushing yards. RG3 gets a lot of credit for opening up the running game for Morris, too. Since RG3 often freezes defenders, Morris is able to get to his gap with one less defender in pursuit. Over the last 5 games, Morris averaged 5.5 yds per carry with RG3 behind center, and only 3.2 yards with Cousins back there. He should get credit for the rushing success, both directly and indirectly. It's not a tiebreaker.

As to Luck, everyone wants to talk about how bad Indy was and their record last year - two things on that. FIRST, I don't understand why the Redskins are getting so much credit. We've been 5-11, 6-10, and 4-12 the last three seasons. We hadn't won the division since 1999. We had $18 million less to spend than other teams. Our O-line was ranked 27th in the league last season. We had a mediocre receiver corp. at best to start the year and our two best receivers were out most of the year. SECOND, the defense for both Seattle and Indy is much stronger than ours. The Skins held opponents to 20 points or fewer just 3 times this year. Indy did it 8 times. Seattle did it freakin' 13 times. If you want to be honest about how good the teams are, let's stop shouting 2-14! 2-14! and look at the actual facts. Seattle and Indy held opponents to fewer points and were more consistent on defense THIS season. That plays into the record every bit as much as these quarterbacks do.

In any case, good posts, Darkstone. We agree on most of it, even if we differ on a few things.

I just think the people talking about the pressure on Luck and the poor team around him aren't giving enough credit to the pressure and the poor team around RG3. I NEVER thought we'd make the playoffs. I thought 7-9 and RG3 showing us half of what he did would be a successful year. DaBolts sure has changed his tune. At the RG3 trade, he said:

The Redskins don't have enough talent on their roster to overcome the loss of those picks" and now...

And now...

You do know that Indy had the worst record in the league last season right?...The Redskins actually played pretty well last year with Beck & Grossman as their QB's. They played in a number of close games. So it shouldn't be such a big surprise that the Redskins were improved this season.

Every NFL team plays in close games. The good teams win those games and the poor teams don't. First rule of lawyering - if you can, hang them with their own words.