Too early to talk about draft

[HaroldSeattle]

It's perfectly fine if you want the Seahawks to go a different direction. There are certainly question marks about Carter.

But using college stats for DTs is highly dubious.

Go look at De'Ron Payne's college stats. 3 sacks. 5 TFLs. In his college career
Or Vita Vea
Or Dontari Poe
or Chris Jones
or Arik Armstead


When it comes to winning, having great players in the trenches is the best path to success, short of having a Patrick Mahomes level player at QB. They often don't put up huge numbers but they make the rest of the defense much better.

They all had a lot of tackles compared to Carter. Some also had more TFL and some had more sacks, the constant is tackling.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

It's perfectly fine if you want the Seahawks to go a different direction. There are certainly question marks about Carter.

But using college stats for DTs is highly dubious.

Go look at De'Ron Payne's college stats. 3 sacks. 5 TFLs. In his college career
Or Vita Vea
Or Dontari Poe
or Chris Jones
or Arik Armstead


When it comes to winning, having great players in the trenches is the best path to success, short of having a Patrick Mahomes level player at QB. They often don't put up huge numbers but they make the rest of the defense much better.

Did any of those DTs go top 5 in the draft? Were they even a consideration to go top 5? Likely not.

 

[flyerhawk]

They all had a lot of tackles compared to Carter. Some also had more TFL and some had more sacks, the constant is tackling.

I see that not only are going to ignore the point you are going to double down on stats and pick and choose the stats that support your point.

To each their own.

 

[flyerhawk]

Did any of those DTs go top 5 in the draft? Were they even a consideration to go top 5? Likely not.

The difference between going 5 or 10 is marginal.

 

[Anointed One]

Did you get a legit site to link to see that stat?

You consider yours legit? Just because someone pays $350 for access?

Here is where I initially read the information... I rewatched Jalen Carter’s playoff games so you don’t have to... I like reading/following this site and he's usually pretty accurate...

 

[Anointed One]

Here is another interesting link from PFF... 2023 NFL Draft's best at everything: Top defensive line performers in 10 distinct categories | NFL Draft | PFF



Winning 29% of the time in True pass sets... Leads to QB pressures/hurries when that's happening...


20.5% pressure rate on 3rd downs in 2022... 1 out of 5 times on 3rd downs he's pressuring pass/run...

This is why I believe there has to be more than 1 QB pressure if both of these things were happening on 3rd down and in true pass sets...

 

[HaroldSeattle]

You consider yours legit? Just because someone pays $350 for access?

Here is where I initially read the information... I rewatched Jalen Carter’s playoff games so you don’t have to... I like reading/following this site and he's usually pretty accurate...

Do you give any weight to the negatives he has for Carter?

Carter may need to be eased into a consistent three-down role in the NFL, as he hasn’t proven much in the way of being a near-every-down starter

Weaknesses​

Because he isn’t the biggest defensive tackle out there, Carter isn’t necessarily the best two-gapper in this draft class.

Though he showed improvement in this regard from 2021 to 2022, Carter can still improve his anchor strength a little bit. Part of these issues come from inconsistent pad level, as he has a tendency to pop upright coming out of his stance and fail to lower his center of gravity. He’s certainly flexible enough to be able to get better at generating more knee bend, but his ability to eat up gaps against the run is still inconsistent to this point.

Carter’s actual collegiate production is a tad worrisome, too. Though he has been extremely efficient in terms of generating pressure and making his presence felt in the backfield, he has just 5 career sacks as of this writing.

A common criticism of Carter’s performance against Ohio State was a lack of conditioning. Some have argued that he either looked tired or lazy off the snap over various courses of the game, whether it be in the second half or the entire game. I did notice that Carter looked a little bit slower in his first step as the game progressed.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

I like what PPF say's about Calijah Kancey.

DI: Calijah Kancey, Pittsburgh (92.4)​

If an NFL defensive tackle prospect is going to measure in at 6-foot-1 and 281 pounds with sub-31-inch arms, then he better be an excellent pass rusher. Luckily for Kancey, he's undeniably the best pure interior pass rusher in the class and one of the best in the past half-decade.

While his lack of size is seen as a detriment in many instances, it does help Kancey minimize his strike zone when rushing the passer, giving opposing blockers little surface area to land strikes and impede his progress. Kancey's elite 9.69 raw athletic score is easily identifiable on tape, as his quickness, burst and cornering enable him to generate pressure in a hurry. Kancey's 16 pressures in 2.5 seconds or less were the second most in the entire class, behind only San Diego State's Jonah Tavai (21).

 

[flyerhawk]

I like what PPF say's about Calijah Kancey.

DI: Calijah Kancey, Pittsburgh (92.4)​

If an NFL defensive tackle prospect is going to measure in at 6-foot-1 and 281 pounds with sub-31-inch arms, then he better be an excellent pass rusher. Luckily for Kancey, he's undeniably the best pure interior pass rusher in the class and one of the best in the past half-decade.

While his lack of size is seen as a detriment in many instances, it does help Kancey minimize his strike zone when rushing the passer, giving opposing blockers little surface area to land strikes and impede his progress. Kancey's elite 9.69 raw athletic score is easily identifiable on tape, as his quickness, burst and cornering enable him to generate pressure in a hurry. Kancey's 16 pressures in 2.5 seconds or less were the second most in the entire class, behind only San Diego State's Jonah Tavai (21).

I like Kancey but our front 7 is already undersized especially for a 3-4.

Kancey reminds me a little of John Randle.

 

[flyerhawk]

Do you give any weight to the negatives he has for Carter?

Carter may need to be eased into a consistent three-down role in the NFL, as he hasn’t proven much in the way of being a near-every-down starter

Weaknesses​

Because he isn’t the biggest defensive tackle out there, Carter isn’t necessarily the best two-gapper in this draft class.

Though he showed improvement in this regard from 2021 to 2022, Carter can still improve his anchor strength a little bit. Part of these issues come from inconsistent pad level, as he has a tendency to pop upright coming out of his stance and fail to lower his center of gravity. He’s certainly flexible enough to be able to get better at generating more knee bend, but his ability to eat up gaps against the run is still inconsistent to this point.

Carter’s actual collegiate production is a tad worrisome, too. Though he has been extremely efficient in terms of generating pressure and making his presence felt in the backfield, he has just 5 career sacks as of this writing.

A common criticism of Carter’s performance against Ohio State was a lack of conditioning. Some have argued that he either looked tired or lazy off the snap over various courses of the game, whether it be in the second half or the entire game. I did notice that Carter looked a little bit slower in his first step as the game progressed.

I don't think anyone is suggesting he's flawless.

Every player has flaws.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

I like what PPF say's about Calijah Kancey.

DI: Calijah Kancey, Pittsburgh (92.4)​

If an NFL defensive tackle prospect is going to measure in at 6-foot-1 and 281 pounds with sub-31-inch arms, then he better be an excellent pass rusher. Luckily for Kancey, he's undeniably the best pure interior pass rusher in the class and one of the best in the past half-decade.

While his lack of size is seen as a detriment in many instances, it does help Kancey minimize his strike zone when rushing the passer, giving opposing blockers little surface area to land strikes and impede his progress. Kancey's elite 9.69 raw athletic score is easily identifiable on tape, as his quickness, burst and cornering enable him to generate pressure in a hurry. Kancey's 16 pressures in 2.5 seconds or less were the second most in the entire class, behind only San Diego State's Jonah Tavai (21).

We just need other positions Harold...

Reed is an okay pass rusher, Jones is a great pass rusher, Taylor is good... we have a fuckin' problem stopping every team from running over us... so you find a good rush DLINEMAN (which Kancey and basically every single DL on the line is not) or we just get run over 24/7 throughout the season.

Brooks despite his absolutely abysmal coverage was OKAY in run defense and now that's likely gone too...

 

[HaroldSeattle]

I like Kancey but our front 7 is already undersized especially for a 3-4.

Kancey reminds me a little of John Randle.

About the size of Dre'Mont Jones who is used for all positions on the DL. It would mean drafting a run stopper later and using Kancey on passing downs and maybe he could play DE on running plays and be sort of like Dre'mont Jones. Just throwing ideas out. I am just not sold on Carter, he's not a classic NT that can play two gap, his value seems to be to draw the OL focus so others can make plays rather than making tackles, TFL or sacks himself. Has conditioning issues and poor judgment on the personal front, out clubbing all night during the combine, drag racing in the city, leaving the scene of a deadly accident, being dishonest to the police ( which was very foolish with all the cameras on that street), his pro day diaster makes you wonder if he cares about his career or thinks he doesn't have to work to improve. Kancey you may be able to draft at pick 20 ( McShay latest draft has him going at pick 21) and use the 5th pick for Anderson or Wilson who both seem a lot safer. Lots of options beside Kancey maybe Mazi Smith for example. Carter just scares me, the 5th pick is too valuable to risk on a DT with his issues when you can draft a DL with the stats, with the history, with the game tape and without the baggage Carter brings.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

We just need other positions Harold...

Reed is an okay pass rusher, Jones is a great pass rusher, Taylor is good... we have a fuckin' problem stopping every team from running over us... so you find a good rush DLINEMAN (which Kancey and basically every single DL on the line is not) or we just get run over 24/7 throughout the season.

Brooks despite his absolutely abysmal coverage was OKAY in run defense and now that's likely gone too...

Well Carter isn't a run stuffer, he's a push the pocket type. Yeah at some point you take a run stuffing DT, but you don't use the #5 pick on a run stuffer.

 

[boogiewithstu2007]

There is a reason why Siaki Ika has comparable numbers. They are both NT types players. Kancey is almost a pure pass rusher and likely to be a liability in run defense.

Jalen Carter had 309 snaps this season and only had 991 snaps in his collegiate career. Will Anderson, by comparison, had 872 in 2021. Kancey had 1429 snaps in his career. Further, Carter is an early down guy that is less likely to be on the field for pure passing downs.

If you have some time give this a watch..


Breaks down the semi-final and final matches. You see how much he disrupts plays from an interior position. Getting that kind of pressure up the middle forces the QB off his spot and helps the ends to get to the QB because he has to drop back.

Sometimes you just can’t overthink it, Jalen has potential to be a generational DT talent, we haven’t had that for a long time, since Cortez … No matter what we do it’s a gamble, but watching Jalen he’s a beast man, even though he’s been a bit questionable lately off the field… Personally I think the guy has been depressed losing a couple friends in that accident … if he’s there at 5 and we pass on him MAN that’s a big decision..

 

[boogiewithstu2007]

About the size of Dre'Mont Jones who is used for all positions on the DL. It would mean drafting a run stopper later and using Kancey on passing downs and maybe he could play DE on running plays and be sort of like Dre'mont Jones. Just throwing ideas out. I am just not sold on Carter, he's not a classic NT that can play two gap, his value seems to be to draw the OL focus so others can make plays rather than making tackles, TFL or sacks himself. Has conditioning issues and poor judgment on the personal front, out clubbing all night during the combine, drag racing in the city, leaving the scene of a deadly accident, being dishonest to the police ( which was very foolish with all the cameras on that street), his pro day diaster makes you wonder if he cares about his career or thinks he doesn't have to work to improve. Kancey you may be able to draft at pick 20 ( McShay latest draft has him going at pick 21) and use the 5th pick for Anderson or Wilson who both seem a lot safer. Lots of options beside Kancey maybe Mazi Smith for example. Carter just scares me, the 5th pick is too valuable to risk on a DT with his issues when you can draft a DL with the stats, with the history, with the game tape and without the baggage Carter brings.

I get why the decisions off field can make you not want him… But this kid was projected to be number one overall before all this, so his talent can’t be questioned.. If he’s there at 5 it’s gonna be a tough pass if we do.. Pete doesn’t seem to mind getting troubled players and giving them a chance…

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Sometimes you just can’t overthink it, Jalen has potential to be a generational DT talent, we haven’t had that for a long time, since Cortez … No matter what we do it’s a gamble, but watching Jalen he’s a beast man, even though he’s been a bit questionable lately off the field… Personally I think the guy has been depressed losing a couple friends in that accident … if he’s there at 5 and we pass on him MAN that’s a big decision..

Cortez last year in college 87 tackles 6.5 sacks, more than double Carter easily. Carter is no Cortez or Suh or A. Donald. Those players made a ton of tackles, many sacks yet Carter lacking in these stats get waved off as unimportant. Then his other issues on top of that…..

 

[flyerhawk]

Cortez last year in college 87 tackles 6.5 sacks, more than double Carter easily. Carter is no Cortez or Suh or A. Donald. Those players made a ton of tackles, many sacks yet Carter lacking in these stats get waved off as unimportant. Then his other issues on top of that…..

Your obsession with stats is a little strange but to each their own.

I honestly don't get your view on this draft. You seem fine with drafting whatever QB is left just to draft him but you hate the idea of drafting the guy that was considered the No. 1 prospect of this draft for the last 2 years.

IMO, I think the Seahawks are engaging in a massive amount of rope-a-dope bullshit and have no intention of drafting a QB. Honestly, I think they were trying wayyyy too hard to show how much they love all the QB options, given all their group selfies. It's possible that they draft Anderson because he might be a Von Miller level talent. It's also possible that Jalen Carter has been their man from the start.

FTR, I'm not certain that Carter will even be there at #5. Way too much silly season nonsense going on given that Carter and Anderson were considered Top 3 picks in January and now the buzz is that this will be a historic draft with 4 QBs taken in the top 5, which has never happened before. Not even close.

 

[boogiewithstu2007]

Cortez last year in college 87 tackles 6.5 sacks, more than double Carter easily. Carter is no Cortez or Suh or A. Donald. Those players made a ton of tackles, many sacks yet Carter lacking in these stats get waved off as unimportant. Then his other issues on top of that…..

Yeah he doesn’t have those numbers but when you watch him play he’s constantly beating his blockers and getting double teamed because he’s so disruptive…He’s a strong dude, freakish athlete … I can understand why you’re balking a bit on him though, this pick 5 is a big one for us, we don’t want to Curry this one … Jalen might be gone by our pick anyway, nothing is in stone …

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Your obsession with stats is a little strange but to each their own.

I honestly don't get your view on this draft. You seem fine with drafting whatever QB is left just to draft him but you hate the idea of drafting the guy that was considered the No. 1 prospect of this draft for the last 2 years.

IMO, I think the Seahawks are engaging in a massive amount of rope-a-dope bullshit and have no intention of drafting a QB. Honestly, I think they were trying wayyyy too hard to show how much they love all the QB options, given all their group selfies. It's possible that they draft Anderson because he might be a Von Miller level talent. It's also possible that Jalen Carter has been their man from the start.

FTR, I'm not certain that Carter will even be there at #5. Way too much silly season nonsense going on given that Carter and Anderson were considered Top 3 picks in January and now the buzz is that this will be a historic draft with 4 QBs taken in the top 5, which has never happened before. Not even close.

Stats are there to help measure production and great players have great stats.

I don't want the Seahawks to just draft ANY QB, needs to be a QB viewed as a top QB prospect for this draft, and the QB I like in particular is
Stroud but he's likely the first player drafted. The other 3 come with more flaws and thus more risks, but that is always going to be the case when drafting a QB and the later you draft a QB the higher the risk.


I too feel the Seahawks trying to get a team to trade with either the Cards or the Seahawks to grab a QB because as you mentioned they are making a big show of being interested in the top 4 QBs. It's sort of over the top.

We shall see where Carter will go in the draft soon, less than a month. My guess he goes to the Bears or Eagles 9th or 10th)

 

[boogiewithstu2007]

Stats are there to help measure production and great players have great stats.

I don't want the Seahawks to just draft ANY QB, needs to be a QB viewed as a top QB prospect for this draft, and the QB I like in particular is
Stroud but he's likely the first player drafted. The other 3 come with more flaws and thus more risks, but that is always going to be the case when drafting a QB and the later you draft a QB the higher the risk.


I too feel the Seahawks trying to get a team to trade with either the Cards or the Seahawks to grab a QB because as you mentioned they are making a big show of being interested in the top 4 QBs. It's sort of over the top.

We shall see where Carter will go in the draft soon, less than a month. My guess he goes to the Bears or Eagles 9th or 10th)

I do NOT want the Eagles to get Carter, that could seriously backfire on us all.. If we do go the QB route I bet it’s Anthony Richardson, his size, speed, arm strength is all there …