Too early to talk about draft

[JMR]

I get that there is a risk with him. But his upside is pretty huge. IMO, he is the one player that could turn the defense around this year.

It's going to boil down to whether we land on the side of Pete's confidence in being the troubled youth whisperer or if the memories of failed experiments like Malik McDowell & Percy Harvin stop JS from pulling the trigger.

 

[flyerhawk]

It's going to boil down to whether we land on the side of Pete's confidence in being the troubled youth whisperer or if the memories of failed experiments like Malik McDowell & Percy Harvin stop JS from pulling the trigger.

McDowell was as much about a freak injury as anything else. Yes, he was reckless with driving around in an ATV. But he suffered life threatening injuries that pretty clearly had long term effects. So it's hard to know what would have happened had he not injured himself.

Harvin was a malcontent in Minnesota that Pete thought he could turn around. And maybe he could have but injuries cut his career short.

The stories of Carter don't make him sound like a bad person. He did something stupid, along with some friends, and his friends died. IMO, Carter was the lucky one who survived.

Now there may be more to the story than we know about. Maybe they were all wasted. Maybe they were on drugs. Maybe they were engaged in other bad behavior. I dunno. That's all speculation.

A lot is going to ride on his team meetings. If he comes in looking good and showing some maturity, then I think he's gone no later than us at 5. If he comes in overweight or with a shitty attitude then he could fall.

I kinda like that he's banking on himself and saying he is only meeting with teams in the top 10. Shows confidence.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

I get that there is a risk with him. But his upside is pretty huge. IMO, he is the one player that could turn the defense around this year.

I mean I've said it before and not going back on what I said, I hate the risk of lack of motivation and passion for football, but I guess that's a risk factor with anyone. He certainly wasn't quite the pass rush threat Suh/Donald/Williams were in College but that might be because Georgia was in general so talented on defense he really never got the opportunity.

Again, I'm a little skeptical but as I've said I certainly can't give Seattle a low grade if they draft him. I'd still be in the probably A- range because of some last minute concerns.

With him or Anderson basically a lock to be there at #5, I really can't be upset with either. I've also even mentioned potentially trading down for a King's ransom if Richardson/Levis/Anderson or Carter are there... I can't imagine teams giving up the kind of draft capital for a DT/EDGE like a QB...

If Anderson/Carter are BOTH there, I'd rather take Anderson. And I think I've held that stance all along although it's marginal at best. Now that said.... in terms of NEEDS:

We need DL help, ILB help, and C/G help the most... so to take an EDGE at #5 (Mafe should continue to develop - he would've been a first rounder if not so raw and Taylor was starting to figure things out a bit more as the season went on - he started HORRIBLY but got it going, Nwosu was a stud) is a bit of a luxury. I would imagine Reed would be situational pass rush and Carter would be the primary 3-4 end on 2 downs and Reed fills in on 3rd and if Carter is not breathing his ass off you put Jones/Carter/Reed in for a 3 down front and with Taylor/Adams the QB is running for his life.

flyer you and I have been on the same page for a while on the excitement of this draft.. that #5 could REALLY translate into some MAJOR draft capital... and Seattle has a good 4-5 positions right now that we effectively need starters at NOW (NT, ILB, C, 3-4 DE (Reed is a sub guy)). There goes the 1st and 2nd... and 3rd+ you need to find backup RB, slot WR, another safety, etc. And we still haven't cut the guy we need to free up the money required for the rookie class.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Some more offical defensive stats for the Georgia Bulldogs

cfbstats.com - 2022 Georgia Bulldogs Tackles For Loss

Carter was credited with ONE QB hurry for THE SEASON according to cfbstats.com. If someone knows where you can more subjective but in depth defensive stats that maybe reflect Carter glowing reviews let me know, would love to see them.

 

[flyerhawk]

I mean I've said it before and not going back on what I said, I hate the risk of lack of motivation and passion for football, but I guess that's a risk factor with anyone. He certainly wasn't quite the pass rush threat Suh/Donald/Williams were in College but that might be because Georgia was in general so talented on defense he really never got the opportunity.

Again, I'm a little skeptical but as I've said I certainly can't give Seattle a low grade if they draft him. I'd still be in the probably A- range because of some last minute concerns.

With him or Anderson basically a lock to be there at #5, I really can't be upset with either. I've also even mentioned potentially trading down for a King's ransom if Richardson/Levis/Anderson or Carter are there... I can't imagine teams giving up the kind of draft capital for a DT/EDGE like a QB...

If Anderson/Carter are BOTH there, I'd rather take Anderson. And I think I've held that stance all along although it's marginal at best. Now that said.... in terms of NEEDS:

We need DL help, ILB help, and C/G help the most... so to take an EDGE at #5 (Mafe should continue to develop - he would've been a first rounder if not so raw and Taylor was starting to figure things out a bit more as the season went on - he started HORRIBLY but got it going, Nwosu was a stud) is a bit of a luxury. I would imagine Reed would be situational pass rush and Carter would be the primary 3-4 end on 2 downs and Reed fills in on 3rd and if Carter is not breathing his ass off you put Jones/Carter/Reed in for a 3 down front and with Taylor/Adams the QB is running for his life.

flyer you and I have been on the same page for a while on the excitement of this draft.. that #5 could REALLY translate into some MAJOR draft capital... and Seattle has a good 4-5 positions right now that we effectively need starters at NOW (NT, ILB, C, 3-4 DE (Reed is a sub guy)). There goes the 1st and 2nd... and 3rd+ you need to find backup RB, slot WR, another safety, etc. And we still haven't cut the guy we need to free up the money required for the rookie class.

IMO, we are unlikely to get a good trade down offer unless one of the QBs falls to us AND some time has a complete hard on for them. So I'm not really going to put much thought into what possible trades we might get. If one comes along then great.

If they don't nab Carter then they probably wait until the 4th or later for a true NT. C is also probably going to be later round. LB is a bit of a wildcard. I could see them going for Drew Sanders at 20 or Campbell a little later or someone in the 4th or later.

DT/Big DE, TE, and WR3 are all being addressed in the top 100, IMO. Probably 2 DL players.

RB is a wildcard with PC/JS. Could go 2nd round. Could go 7th round or UDFA.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Will Anderson stats:

 

[blstoker]

Some more offical defensive stats for the Georgia Bulldogs

View attachment 325108

View attachment 325109

cfbstats.com - 2022 Georgia Bulldogs Tackles For Loss

Carter was credited with ONE QB hurry for THE SEASON according to cfbstats.com. If someone knows where you can more subjective but in depth defensive stats that maybe reflect Carter glowing reviews let me know, would love to see them.

Will Anderson stats:

View attachment 325113

View attachment 325114

View attachment 325115

Harold, I love ya man, but this is hard to take serious. I get that you think Carter's number aren't where you want them to be - but in what universe is comparing a NT/DT/3-4 DE stats to a 3-4 OLB gonna prove anything at all?

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Harold, I love ya man, but this is hard to take serious. I get that you think Carter's number aren't where you want them to be - but in what universe is comparing a NT/DT/3-4 DE stats to a 3-4 OLB gonna prove anything at all?

Fair enough because it is apples to oranges. Still you can look at DTs stats, for example, Kancey Calijah has 10 QB hurries, 7 sacks,14 TFL, and 30 tackles, Mazi Smith has 48 tackles. Carter's stats even for DT are not special, Siaki Ika has 24 tackles and can be taken much later in the draft.

The reason for posting these stats was supposedly Carter pressured the QB with hurries and such and someone posted Carter had 5 hurries in a single game but no source and it was hard to find any site that had stats listing stats on hurries and pressure than I found this site.

@blstoker you are a stat guy, do you know of a legit source that lists things like QB pressures, hurries and such for college?

 

[flyerhawk]

Fair enough because it is apples to oranges. Still you can look at DTs stats, for example, Kancey Calijah has 10 QB hurries, 7 sacks,14 TFL, and 30 tackles, Mazi Smith has 48 tackles. Carter's stats even for DT are not special, Siaki Ika has 24 tackles which are just 4 less than Carter and can be taken much later in the draft.

The reason for posting these stats was supposedly Carter pressured the QB with hurries and such and someone posted Carter had 5 hurries in a single game but no source and it was hard to find any site that had stats listing stats on hurries and pressure than I found this site.

@blstoker you are a stat guy, do you know of a legit source that lists things like QB pressures, hurries and such for college?

There is a reason why Siaki Ika has comparable numbers. They are both NT types players. Kancey is almost a pure pass rusher and likely to be a liability in run defense.

Jalen Carter had 309 snaps this season and only had 991 snaps in his collegiate career. Will Anderson, by comparison, had 872 in 2021. Kancey had 1429 snaps in his career. Further, Carter is an early down guy that is less likely to be on the field for pure passing downs.

If you have some time give this a watch..


Breaks down the semi-final and final matches. You see how much he disrupts plays from an interior position. Getting that kind of pressure up the middle forces the QB off his spot and helps the ends to get to the QB because he has to drop back.

 

[Anointed One]

Some more offical defensive stats for the Georgia Bulldogs

View attachment 325108

View attachment 325109

cfbstats.com - 2022 Georgia Bulldogs Tackles For Loss

Carter was credited with ONE QB hurry for THE SEASON according to cfbstats.com. If someone knows where you can more subjective but in depth defensive stats that maybe reflect Carter glowing reviews let me know, would love to see them.

You honestly believe he only hurried the quarterback, one time this season? Especially after watching the video flyer posted?

I get that you don’t like the guy, but man you are reaching right now

 

[HaroldSeattle]

There is a reason why Siaki Ika has comparable numbers. They are both NT types players. Kancey is almost a pure pass rusher and likely to be a liability in run defense.

Jalen Carter had 309 snaps this season and only had 991 snaps in his collegiate career. Will Anderson, by comparison, had 872 in 2021. Kancey had 1429 snaps in his career. Further, Carter is an early down guy that is less likely to be on the field for pure passing downs.

If you have some time give this a watch..


Breaks down the semi-final and final matches. You see how much he disrupts plays from an interior position. Getting that kind of pressure up the middle forces the QB off his spot and helps the ends to get to the QB because he has to drop back.

I think when you watch a video like this you are best served to mute the sound because the commenter is so over-the-top gaga about Carter that you need to shut off his comments, watch the plays then judge for yourself. This commenter has Carter "winning" every play, didn't matter if the QB easily throw a TD or the ball carrier ran for 20 yards, for the commentator it's all about Carter's dance with the OL, his club move , his swim move and so on.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

You honestly believe he only hurried the quarterback, one time this season? Especially after watching the video flyer posted?

I get that you don’t like the guy, but man you are reaching right now

The source of those stats comes from:



$350.00 for basic package, call for pricing on advance or complete packages. Is it a legit source? IDK but seems to be aimed at gamblers looking for an edge and not cheap either.

 

[blstoker]

I think when you watch a video like this you are best served to mute the sound because the commenter is so over-the-top gaga about Carter that you need to shut off his comments, watch the plays then judge for yourself. This commenter has Carter "winning" every play, didn't matter if the QB easily throw a TD or the ball carrier ran for 20 yards, for the commentator it's all about Carter's dance with the OL, his club move , his swim move and so on.

Well, to be fair, it's a video of how Jalen Carter did his job, not whether there wasn't a hole in the defense elsewhere.

The real danger of a video like this is that they only showed the plays where he won, and not what happened when he didn't. The commentator mentions a couple times that he didn't always win against certain linemen - but you don't see that.

Overall, the video shows why Carter is considered a top 5 pick, despite not putting up masive numbers. If he comes in and demands double and triple teams and is still just as likely to win as not, then that frees up all the other plyers to make plays and the defense will be much better for it.

 

[flyerhawk]

I think when you watch a video like this you are best served to mute the sound because the commenter is so over-the-top gaga about Carter that you need to shut off his comments, watch the plays then judge for yourself. This commenter has Carter "winning" every play, didn't matter if the QB easily throw a TD or the ball carrier ran for 20 yards, for the commentator it's all about Carter's dance with the OL, his club move , his swim move and so on.

How many other analysis would you like?

I guess it's possible that every talent evaluator is wrong and that Carter isn't that good due to his lack of statistical production.

 

[flyerhawk]

Well, to be fair, it's a video of how Jalen Carter did his job, not whether there wasn't a hole in the defense elsewhere.

The real danger of a video like this is that they only showed the plays where he won, and not what happened when he didn't. The commentator mentions a couple times that he didn't always win against certain linemen - but you don't see that.

Overall, the video shows why Carter is considered a top 5 pick, despite not putting up masive numbers. If he comes in and demands double and triple teams and is still just as likely to win as not, then that frees up all the other plyers to make plays and the defense will be much better for it.

Exactly.

Carter was asked to do specific things in the Georgia defense. Some of those things are EXACTLY what this defense needs.

Of course there are risks, as with all players. Will Anderson was an absolute monster statistically but that doesn't tell you everything. Here are the single season leaders for tackles for loss in NCAA history..

Tackles for Loss Single Season Leaders and Records | College Football at Sports-Reference.com

Tackles for Loss Single Season Leaders and Records

www.sports-reference.com

You'll see guys like Aaron Donald on that list too. A lot of "who is that" on the list as well.

Defensive statistics are always a little tricky. But even more so when talking about college players because a team's scheme can often be created to specifically free up certain players. If you watch the Will Anderson highlights, they involve a lot of plays where he is untouched and can use his speed to blow plays up. That helps him rack up a lot of stats but I'm not sure how often he will be unmarked in the NFL.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Exactly.

Carter was asked to do specific things in the Georgia defense. Some of those things are EXACTLY what this defense needs.

Of course there are risks, as with all players. Will Anderson was an absolute monster statistically but that doesn't tell you everything. Here are the single season leaders for tackles for loss in NCAA history..

Tackles for Loss Single Season Leaders and Records | College Football at Sports-Reference.com

Tackles for Loss Single Season Leaders and Records

www.sports-reference.com

You'll see guys like Aaron Donald on that list too. A lot of "who is that" on the list as well.

Defensive statistics are always a little tricky. But even more so when talking about college players because a team's scheme can often be created to specifically free up certain players. If you watch the Will Anderson highlights, they involve a lot of plays where he is untouched and can use his speed to blow plays up. That helps him rack up a lot of stats but I'm not sure how often he will be unmarked in the NFL.

Someone here said Carter is the best DT since Ndumukong Suh. Suh stats 85 tackles, 20.5 TFL and 12 sacks Carter isn't in the same ballpark not in the same zip code even. It's all the hype that causes folks to think Carter is somehow elite despite not accumulating the stats normally associated with elite DTs. On top of that there are questions about his conditioning and night clubbing while the combine is happening should concern folks, his pro day just added to those concerns as he appeared totally gassed while doing just a few drills.

I'd rather see the Seahawks draft Anderson or Wilson, they look like better bets to succeed in the NFL.

 

[Anointed One]

The source of those stats comes from:

View attachment 325156

$350.00 for basic package, call for pricing on advance or complete packages. Is it a legit source? IDK but seems to be aimed at gamblers looking for an edge and not cheap either.

That's a lot of money for not providing the correct information, imo.. The majority of time watching video of Carter he is in the backfield of the opposing team, quickly defeating double teams with elite switch and bursts. He quickly moves offensive linemen out of the way, while immediately putting pressure on the QB or disrupting a run play.... Just from the naked eye, with out listening to the sound of the videos, he's doing this over and over... Which is why I found it hard to believe that they say he only has 1 QB pressure this season when he had 5 in each of the postseason games...

 

[HaroldSeattle]

when he had 5 in each of the postseason games...

Did you get a legit site to link to see that stat?

 

[flyerhawk]

Someone here said Carter is the best DT since Ndumukong Suh. Suh stats 85 tackles, 20.5 TFL and 12 sacks Carter isn't in the same ballpark not in the same zip code even. It's all the hype that causes folks to think Carter is somehow elite despite not accumulating the stats normally associated with elite DTs. On top of that there are questions about his conditioning and night clubbing while the combine is happening should concern folks, his pro day just added to those concerns as he appeared totally gassed while doing just a few drills.

I'd rather see the Seahawks draft Anderson or Wilson, they look like better bets to succeed in the NFL.

It's perfectly fine if you want the Seahawks to go a different direction. There are certainly question marks about Carter.

But using college stats for DTs is highly dubious.

Go look at De'Ron Payne's college stats. 3 sacks. 5 TFLs. In his college career
Or Vita Vea
Or Dontari Poe
or Chris Jones
or Arik Armstead


When it comes to winning, having great players in the trenches is the best path to success, short of having a Patrick Mahomes level player at QB. They often don't put up huge numbers but they make the rest of the defense much better.

 

[flyerhawk]

Did you get a legit site to link to see that stat?

'Everybody circles 88 as the game wrecker': Jalen Carter is best yet from UGA D-linemen ranks

Scouts and coaches have been wildly impressed with defensive prospects from Georgia recently. But many say the best is coming now.

theathletic.com

Carter is a big reason Georgia allowed the fewest rushing yards in the past two seasons in college football and the Bulldogs won consecutive national titles. In 2022, he piled up 31 quarterback hurries — tied for tops on the team despite his being banged up for parts of the season. He sprained his ankle on the first play of the season against Oregon and was also slowed by an MCL injury. But there were also stunning displays of dominance, most notably in a showdown against Tennessee in which he had a sack, another TFL and two forced fumbles.

This is Jalen Carter dunking a basketball..