tOfficially Official 2016 Spring training thread

[saddles]

.255 ish, with 45 ish RBI. What are you thinking?

Both games are on FSSW today starting at 3 PM.

I would think about .240-.245 or so, maybe slightly less. If he got the chance to play 140 games I would look for him to hit about .280 or better.

 

[jta4437]

I would think about .240-.245 or so, maybe slightly less. If he got the chance to play 140 games I would look for him to hit about .280 or better.

Just piggy-backing teh whole convo here

But I'd look for Rua to spell Choo/Fielder/Moreland quite frequently to rest up those guys and play into a the LHP split

I see him taking most of Moreland's ABs versus LHPs but with Fielder and Choo also being LHHs it allows them to "rest" one of these guys on occasion against LHPs as well

15 games in RF, 10 in LF, about 50 at 1B/DH, maybe 5 at 3B... dunno how they feel about him defensively at 1B versus Moreland, but if they rest Fielder than either Rua or Moreland would be DHing (teams generally play starting LHP about 1/3 of the time), that ends up at about 81 games WITHOUT anyone getting injured, if that happens then you're looking at about 100-120 games for Rua as a reserve/platoon guy

All said and done, I think Rua in about 100 games would do about .250 - .260, 12-15 HRs and 45-55 RBIs

 

[True Rangers Fan]

 

[DT LUNA]

Only hope if Rua makes he roster he doesn't rot on the bench 5 days a week. I like him a lot and I could see him being a better right handed version of Moreland. I really would like to see him fulfill his potential with us.

Me too. He has a fan base here.

 

[Bmurph]

What are the chances Beltre or Desmond are Texas Rangers after this season?

2017 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

By Tim Dierkes | March 22, 2016 at 10:49pm CDT

The 2015-16 MLB free agent class is winding down, and it’s time to turn our attention to the 2016-17 group. These players project to become free agents after the 2016 season, unless they sign contract extensions first. Extensions seem unlikely for the top names. Players may be reluctant to sign now, as the 2016-17 class appears weak. MLBTR’s full list of 2016-17 free agents can be found here.

What exactly are we ranking here? The simplest explanation would be earning power. These rankings represent expected contract size, assuming each player reaches the open market and goes to the highest bidder. Of course, nothing affects a free agent’s earning power more than his most recent season, so I’ll be updating these rankings monthly.



1. Stephen Strasburg. The first overall pick in the 2009 draft, Strasburg has been very good in his Nationals career but hasn’t quite lived up to expectations. One could draw a parallel with one of last winter’s top free agents, Justin Upton. Of course, it’s different with pitchers, and over the years Strasburg’s only limitation has been health. After tying for the NL lead in strikeouts in 2014, shoulder, neck, back, and oblique issues limited Strasburg to 23 big league starts in 2015. After the season, he had a “small, non-cancerous growth removed from his back,” wrote James Wagner of the Washington Post. Strasburg also has Tommy John surgery in his health history, with the procedure performed in September 2010. Strasburg’s agent, Scott Boras, enjoys a well-known cozy relationship with the Nationals. The team generated controversy in 2012 when Strasburg was shut down at 159 1/3 innings with the team headed to the playoffs, a decision unsurprisingly supported by Boras. Now, if Strasburg can muster up his second career 200-inning season along with his typical dominance, Boras will seek to shatter David Price’s record contract for starting pitchers, which was for seven years and $217MM with the Red Sox. As with Price, opt-out clauses will factor heavily into the discussion. Strasburg doesn’t turn 28 until July, so he’ll be about two years younger than Price was.

2. Carlos Gomez. Gomez took big steps forward after being traded to the Brewers in November 2009, and posted a career-best 19 home runs in 2012. In the spring of 2013, with free agency looming after the season, Gomez signed a surprising three-year extension with Milwaukee. He went on to put up monster seasons in 2013 and ’14, but was derailed in 2015 with hamstring and hip issues. A near-trade to the Mets fell apart in July when New York backed out for various reasons, but he was successfully traded to the Astros the following day. Similar to Strasburg, a healthy season will go a long way for Gomez, who is also represented by Boras. The center fielder could land a deal north of $150MM if he returns to his 2014 level of health and production.

3. Yoenis Cespedes. I predicted a six-year, $140MM deal for Cespedes, who reached free agency after the 2015 season. Instead, the 30-year-old slugger turned down multiple five-year offers and returned to the Mets in late January on an interesting high-AAV contract. Cespedes signed a three-year, $75MM deal, with an opt out after 2016. If exercised, Cespedes will have earned a hefty $27.5MM for the ’16 season. If he does opt out, perhaps Cespedes will be coming off a season good enough to ease whatever concerns plagued him this winter, and he can snag that six-year deal in the end. It’s a weaker market for sluggers, as Bautista and Encarnacion are considerably older.

4. Jose Bautista. Bautista, 36 in October, crushed 75 home runs over the last two seasons for the Blue Jays. He’s a late bloomer, having broken out with the Jays in 2010 at age 29 with 54 home runs. While extension talks with Toronto have occurred, Bautista stated in February that he’s “not willing to negotiate” from his asking price, which reports suggest could be five or six years at around $30MM per season. Right now I’m penciling him in for four years and $120MM. Some teams will draw a hard line because of Bautista’s age, but it’s certainly possible for one to throw caution out the window.

5. Edwin Encarnacion. Bautista’s teammate has been prolific in his own right, with 151 bombs over the last four years. He’ll turn 34 prior to the 2017 season, so age is a big factor here as well. Talks with the Jays have stalled over contract length, and you have to think Encarnacion expects at least four years. I could see something like four years and $100MM, though he’d have a good argument for five years if Bautista gets that many first. Encarnacion is more limited in the field, as a DH/first baseman.

6. Josh Reddick. Reddick doesn’t carry the same health or age concerns as the other outfielders on this list. He recently turned 29, and he played in 149 games last year. Reddick has evolved as a hitter, dropping his strikeout rate to 11.2% last year. He’s got 20 home run pop and a good defensive reputation, if not the numbers to back up the latter in recent years. He could be a candidate for a surprising five-year deal approaching $100MM. The A’s are at least exploring an extension.

7. Andrew Cashner. You might be surprised to see Cashner this high on the list. Indeed, his position is tenuous. But in a free agent market starved for starting pitching, Cashner is the type you can dream on. A former 2008 first rounder, Cashner averaged a blazing 94.8 miles per hour on his fastball last year. That ranked sixth in baseball among those with 180 innings. On the other hand, it was Cashner’s first time reaching that innings plateau, and he served up a 4.34 ERA for San Diego. The team chose to hold onto him over the winter, perhaps sensing his value could rise in his contract year. If Ian Kennedy can get five years and $70MM plus an opt-out clause, Cashner could do well in a free agent market for starting pitching that looks much, much worse.

8. Kenley Jansen. Jansen, 29 in September, may be the game’s best reliever. The Dodgers’ closer boasts massive strikeout rates, and he added a career-best walk rate last year. Jansen is practically unhittable, and he doesn’t come with the off-field baggage Chapman does. Jonathan Papelbon’s record four-year, $50MM contract for relievers could fall, as it’s possible Jansen could land a five-year deal.

 

[Bmurph]

10. Aroldis Chapman. Chapman is right there with Jansen in terms of relief dominance, regularly punching out at least 42% of batters faced. The 28-year-old is the hardest-throwing pitcher alive, averaging 99.5 miles per hour on his fastball last year and over 100 the year before. However, his upcoming free agency is clouded by an incident that occurred at his home last October. In a police report uncovered by Tim Brown and Jeff Passan of Yahoo, Chapman reportedly pushed and choked his girlfriend and fired a gun repeatedly in his garage. Chapman denies harming his girlfriend, but chose not to appeal the 30-game suspension handed down by MLB as part of its domestic violence policy. Even if Chapman avoids further incidents as a member of the Yankees, this one will affect his free agency after the season. Every interested team will conduct due diligence, and perhaps several will emerge with enough comfort to offer Chapman a large four-year deal. At this point, it’s difficult to say.

In the 2015-16 offseason, ten free agents signed for at least $80MM, seven of whom were pitchers. This year, only Strasburg seems likely to reach $80MM, highlighting the lack of depth in starting pitching in the 2016-17 market. After Cashner, there’s names like Jesse Chavez, Jorge de la Rosa, Ivan Nova, Edinson Volquez, Kris Medlen, and Brett Anderson. James Shields and Scott Kazmir each have the ability to opt out of their current contracts and join the market, though it’s unclear whether either will find that worthwhile. On the relief side, Mark Melancon is a high quality arm likely to land in our top 20.

There are a few interesting position players who did not make my initial top ten: Justin Turner, Francisco Cervelli, Matt Wieters, and Neil Walker. Ian Desmond and Colby Rasmus will find themselves back on the market again, barring extensions.

It doesn’t seem likely that the Nippon Ham Fighters will post 21-year-old phenom pitcher Shohei Otani after this season, but if they do it would shake up the MLB free agent market.

 

[saddles]

I don't think Desmond is back. I would give Beltre a 60% chance of being a Ranger in 2017. If he doesn't sign before the regular season starts I would move that to 40%.

 

[donaldson79]

Did anyone get to listen to the Hitzges interview with Tom Wilhelmsen today? It was honest and pretty funny.

 

[donaldson79]

Just piggy-backing teh whole convo here

But I'd look for Rua to spell Choo/Fielder/Moreland quite frequently to rest up those guys and play into a the LHP split

I see him taking most of Moreland's ABs versus LHPs but with Fielder and Choo also being LHHs it allows them to "rest" one of these guys on occasion against LHPs as well

15 games in RF, 10 in LF, about 50 at 1B/DH, maybe 5 at 3B... dunno how they feel about him defensively at 1B versus Moreland, but if they rest Fielder than either Rua or Moreland would be DHing (teams generally play starting LHP about 1/3 of the time), that ends up at about 81 games WITHOUT anyone getting injured, if that happens then you're looking at about 100-120 games for Rua as a reserve/platoon guy

All said and done, I think Rua in about 100 games would do about .250 - .260, 12-15 HRs and 45-55 RBIs

It seems like we're all in the general neighborhood with each other in what we are expecting for him.

 

[donaldson79]

I don't think Desmond is back. I would give Beltre a 60% chance of being a Ranger in 2017. If he doesn't sign before the regular season starts I would move that to 40%.

By design, at least initially, Desmond is suppose to be gone after this year.

Are you saying Beltre will be a 40% probability to be here in 2017 if he doesn't sign before this season begins?

 

[jta4437]

I don't think Desmond is back. I would give Beltre a 60% chance of being a Ranger in 2017. If he doesn't sign before the regular season starts I would move that to 40%.

Agreed about Desmond, I think he has a solid season more characteristic of previous seasons before last season and cashes in

Plus there should be someone ready to replace him in LF next season from the farm, whether it be Mazara, Gallo (if Beltre comes back) or Deshields by Brinson him over from CF.... Money is on Mazara

Up in the air on Beltre

 

[saddles]

Did anyone get to listen to the Hitzges interview with Tom Wilhelmsen today? It was honest and pretty funny.

I didn't get to.

 

[saddles]

By design, at least initially, Desmond is suppose to be gone after this year.

Are you saying Beltre will be a 40% probability to be here in 2017 if he doesn't sign before this season begins?

Yes, I think if they can't get it worked out before the season begins then his chances of signing here go down. My 40% may actually be a bit high. My thinking is that they rarely do things like that during the season and once the season is over he might as well test the waters. Now that I think more about it I think I will change that possibility to 20%. It really depends on how much Adrian really wants a three year deal. If he does then I think this will be his last year here.

 

[donaldson79]

I didn't get to.

He was as open and honest as one can be. Self-effacing and quite humorous.

Plus, pretty darn good pitcher too. Glad we got him.

 

[donaldson79]

It really depends on how much Adrian really wants a three year deal. If he does then I think this will be his last year here.

I agree.

Frankly, there's almost nothing he can do this season which would change this really. If he has his avg season, he'll have about 2700 games and 19 years of service.

Father Time spanks us all at some point.

 

[True Rangers Fan]

Roundtable: Will a woman break through in MLB?

For Romeo.

 

[saddles]

I agree.

Frankly, there's almost nothing he can do this season which would change this really. If he has his avg season, he'll have about 2700 games and 19 years of service.

Father Time spanks us all at some point.

Up until the 3 year deal rumors surfaced I had always expected to see Adrian back here playing 3B in 2017. With there being a possibility of him not being here would you see that as an opportunity for Profar, Gallo, or Rua to play 3B next year? What happens to the lineup for 2017 if Rua, Profar, Gallo, Mazara and Brinson all prove to be ready over the course of the 2016 season?

 

[saddles]

 

[saddles]

 

[saddles]