This Forum and SOTG 2014

[Redsfan1507]

Offseason is well, offseason. Glad to hear your parole hearing went well Ryan, and youre back in the world Among most Reds fans, you are usually the most consistently positive and optimistic, and that is a breath of fresh air.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I used to vacation every now and then in the Outer Banks area in N.C. in summertime, Nags Head, Kill Devil Hills, Duck, etc. are pretty crowded-beach traffic, boats, tourists, etc. I went near there on business once in winter, and decided to drive a couple hours to there to get dinner-usually great fresh seafood. When I got there, it looked like they had evacuated- houses and businesses closed up, no cars or traffic, hardly any people at all. One restaurant in Nags Head was open- and their was about 6 cars there. All of them were at the bar- eating and drinking. The owner of the place, the Mayor, the Police Chief, a Realtor, a hotel manager, and a local doctor were the patrons. They said that only a hundred or so people lived there year round. I asked them what they did in the offseason, and they said "you see it"...we just try to make enough money in season to do this all winter"....and this venue is kinda like that I guess.

 

[JohnU]

The alternative is to continue to bellyache about why Walt didn't unload half the team so he could get Brett Gardner and Chase Headley. I was on another forum and I finally got so tired of reading it that I quit posting. I am all for a discussion about improving the team, but the theme was ongoing -- everybody in baseball has a better team than the Reds do because we didn't trade Brandon Phillips.

I began to exercise uncommon optimism just because somebody needed to. The whining still goes on. I read a USA Today article where the writer shares his pointless opinion about the teams that didn't improve. He cites no good reason for them not improving other than he thinks they should have. These "experts" look around and decide to dabble in advanced metrics, come to conclusions and basically prove to us they aren't following the game.

The Reds were one. Same crap, different venue.

The problem with advanced metrics is that it's like whatever sort of lies you want to promote as truth. It's more complex than RBIs and batting average but it also is exactly that. Pretending to have some background on WAR and OPS+ and BABIP only shows you can find these categories in a row.

The more people pretend to care about advanced metrics, the more ignorant of baseball they become.

 

[redsfan03]

I've been pretty guilty of not staying active here during the offseason. Been pretty busy. But honestly, there hasn't been much to discuss since Price was hired and there were rumors of BP getting traded. The Reds did not make any major moves this offseason. It becomes a pointless exercise of falling back on old tropes of discussion (poor plate philosophy, mismanagement of Chapman, hating on Dusty, etc.) and analyzing the signings of AAA fodder. For me, unless something big happens, I just can't really find much to talk about during the offseason. At least during the season you have 5 or 6 games a week you can analyze to death. I'm sure it will gear up as spring training rolls around and the lead up to the 2014 season begins. But it's perfectly understandable for the traffic here to be as dead as the landscape is at this point.

 

[redlegs@hokies]

no time like the present to get amped up for Reds baseball!

 

[Redsfan1507]

I agree w/ much of 03's synopsis...

I agree, the Reds didnt improve the roster. I think while improving the dugout staff may be noteworthy, it may not be enough, because as much as I disliked Dusty, Hackoby and The Blind Ber, that wasn't the whole problem.

That said, predicting results based on last year, is like predicting weather based on last week. The Reds may not hit many big park homers, just like last year, but the distance between bases is the same in every park, and if Billy Hamilton can get on base, people who counted the Reds out might finally get why that is important...especially if reduced PED power is on the horizon...and if Ham can't hit, he can't steal, and some will blame him...even if BP declines for the 4th straight year and Ludwick becomes the highest paid 5th OF in Reds history, and Chapman had the same number of saves if the Reds finish 4th or 1st, but the 5th starter has an ERA of 4.50 and a BAA of .290 and opposing lefty hitters feast on the Reds righties.

This year's results are on GM Walt Jocketty, who IMO, was at least two years too late in the dugout changes he made. I wouldn't count them out though. Not as long as the pitching is healthy. At least Price understands pitching. That's an improvement in itself.

 

[JohnU]

I read and hear the same things as everyone else -- the usual guarded optimism, focus on the positives and emphasis on doing things better to minimize weaknesses.

What has landed for me is that the Reds are being honest about their place in the market, as if that could be denied.

But they are also not sounding the "sell" alarm either if the team doesn't win. I don't think there's pressure on Price to win but the decline in ticket sales that results from a flop could cost Jocketty his job. Not sure but what finding a replacement at that position wouldn't be a whole lot more dificult.

Failure to win* this year could be a long-term black eye for Castellini. He has to know that.

* ... not necessarily a World Series but at least a strong divisional finish.

 

[Redsfan1507]

PR is not insignificant. It effects gate receipts and TV deals. Lots of media, and MLB types were sympathetic to Dusty, leaving lots of open pot shots if the Reds flop this year. It's why I'm surprised Jocketty didn't try harder to add an impact player after losing Choo. It means one of a few things-

1. He's out of tricks, out of money, out of prospects to trade and out of answers other than trying to get a new staff to get more out of what they have left.

2. He really believes he had enough to win at least as much as last year, and fans will come that much again.

3. He's done enough where he isn't trying to impress anyone or keep his job. He's just spending the payroll he's allowed on the random opportunities that he has at hand.


In truth, I believe all of the above applies to a degree.

I do have concerns that too much depends on a rookie leadoff hitter, and a washed up LF that wasn't all that when he was young. If healthy, this team can pitch though. Votto and Bruce are hitters in any park. BP can be a game changer in many ways. There is considerable upside in Cozart, Mesoraco and Frazier. The new dugout staff cannot possibly lower the Reds baseball IQ of last year. It could be much worse- this team does have a chance to be very good.

 

[JohnU]

I think the impact player was Choo, who we could have gotten without giving up anybody in trade.
Since the money to sign him wasn't there, and there isn't anybody in the system you would unload that readily, I don't know that anything else can be done.

Arguably, you could trade Chapman for a bat, or see if you can throw in the entire bench to come up with somebody like Sizemore.

I just don't see a trade I am willing to make. I would NOT want to trade pitchers, don't care if Homer IS going to play out his option. He wins this year, we replace him next year.

The only other deal was Phillips and nobody wanted that contract either.

I don't think this is sink or swim for the Reds but it may not be the contender we want. We've waited a long time to get to this point. I will settle for competitive.

I got no heart left to be broken by whether a baseball team wins a pennant. I've already seen it and it was great. Won't add many years to my rotten lungs.

When the season starts, my cussword vocabulary grows.

 

[Redsfan1507]

No one ever won a game or a division on paper...but if they did, it would be the Cardinals. Their back end of the rotation isn't great, and their bullpen has a hole or two. They aren't going to play consistently spectacular defense in the middle of the infield or in LF, but they are going to hit, and will not make too many fundamental blunders. They will steal more bases this year than last. A 100 win season wouldn't surprise me.

The Pirates ? I put them in the same category as the Reds- anywhere between 75/95 wins depending on how all their planets align.

The Brewers will out hit a few teams, but their pitching and D will give much of that offense back. The Cubs are being run out of position for Theo Epstein- he's trying to build a team instead of buying one. The good news for him is, he picked the most patient franchise in history- they might be willing to wait another century for Theo to pull that one off.

 

[JohnU]

Until I see where Burnett lands, I won't scramble for any odds.
If he goes to Milwaukee, they suddenly smell like a contender.
If he goes to the Cubs, they might play .480. That's not a team i want to face in September.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Maybe Phillies ? Pirates may not be out of it yet. He probably wants to avoid the DH as much as possible, but lots of AL teams I could see him land with.

 

[JohnU]

Phillies smelled right, since Burnett wants to stay near his home, somewhere in that part of the country. Now, saying he wants to remain in the NL ... Mets, maybe.

Or the Reds.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I see Burnett kinda like Arroyo- a nice veteran back of the rotation guy, that if he has to be a #1, it should be in a 3rd place team. I have to believe at his age, his planets all aligned last year, but will be a more normal orbit this year. The Phillies might be a good fit- they might compete if their signature players ages and injuries don't fail them again. Mets are clearly rebuilding. The Brewers and Cubs always need pitching. I think everything except his salary fit the Pirates, actually. The dastardly Cardinals might even use him. He'll get signed somewhere if he wants to.