THE PAC 12 THREAD v.5

[AlaskaGuy]

I agree. I think he could make the team a 8 or 9 win team pretty much immediately and it would be up to his recruiting on the defensive side to see if he could elevate the program to where it was while he was at Oregon between 2009-2012.

Speaking of recruiting, I think Washington ends up with Elijah Holden. If that happens its going to be a big time hit to Oregon recruiting.

 

[WizardHawk]

I agree it's not an overnight recovery. However, I think Herbert will be a good QB in the future for the Ducks and the Ducks should a good offense moving forward. The key is recruiting, particularly on the defensive side. As much as people want to blame Hoke, the talent isn't there. The inside LBs are remarkably bad and the D-Line is, at best, mediocre. I know some people who want to troll Oregon will say "Oregon's defense was always this bad" but anyone who knows college football knows that not true. When Oregon was at it's best (2010 and 2012), they had very good players on defense. Plenty of guys who are now playing in the NFL. That's just not the case right now.

No, Oregon's fall really started with Aliotti retiring. No one would say they didn't decline on that side of the ball. In fact those of us that predicted a slide back this year brought up the decline in depth over the off season. And no, none of us predicted THIS bad of a fall, but the signs were there.

If the talent is that depleted then it's at least a 2 year rebuilding on that side of the ball.

Kelly would for sure have a more dangerous offense, but I'm still not buying that it would reach levels it once did. Too many defenses now are ready for it vs what they were when it was more novel. I recall how bad UW looked against it under Holt (but then Holt's D was bad against everyone) and we saw measured improvement with Wilcox in terms of at least having communications and subs in on time when there were windows.

They would probably be in contention again at some point, but I don't see the same level of ownership of the north, or split ownership like they had with Stanford.

And all of that relies on having that quality DC again that fits with what their scheme brings them. All those fast scores or quick outs when they punt put so much pressure on that defense. Aliotti had that dialed up. Replacing that is not as easy as people might think.

 

[Duckboy33]

No, Oregon's fall really started with Aliotti retiring. No one would say they didn't decline on that side of the ball. In fact those of us that predicted a slide back this year brought up the decline in depth over the off season. And no, none of us predicted THIS bad of a fall, but the signs were there.

If the talent is that depleted then it's at least a 2 year rebuilding on that side of the ball.

Kelly would for sure have a more dangerous offense, but I'm still not buying that it would reach levels it once did. Too many defenses now are ready for it vs what they were when it was more novel. I recall how bad UW looked against it under Holt (but then Holt's D was bad against everyone) and we saw measured improvement with Wilcox in terms of at least having communications and subs in on time when there were windows.

They would probably be in contention again at some point, but I don't see the same level of ownership of the north, or split ownership like they had with Stanford.

And all of that relies on having that quality DC again that fits with what their scheme brings them. All those fast scores or quick outs when they punt put so much pressure on that defense. Aliotti had that dialed up. Replacing that is not as easy as people might think.

I agree that Alliotti retiring was a much bigger hit for Oregon than people realize but I don't think Oregon's decline has much to do with defenses figuring them out. I think it has far more to do with the lack of a proven QB (Offense was very dangerous with Mariota and Adams). In fact, I think the PAC is currently weaker than it was during CK's 4 years at Oregon. A key to Oregon will be defensive improvement. However, I don't think that will be impossible to replicate. It starts on the recruiting trail. The defensive talent drop is startling right now.

 

[Duckboy33]

Speaking of recruiting, I think Washington ends up with Elijah Holden. If that happens its going to be a big time hit to Oregon recruiting.

Oregon couldn't have picked a worse year for a down year. There are a couple of big recruits in Oregon this year (And that's usually not the case).

 

[WizardHawk]

Recruiting is everything and a stronger UW (lessor extent WSU) siphon at least some talent that might have otherwise gone to Oregon. More so than Stanford when they were toe to toe with you as they have their own recruiting requirements. Oregon's rise was during an unheard of down time overall in the rest of the NW schools.

 

[wazzu31]

Recruiting is everything and a stronger UW (lessor extent WSU) siphon at least some talent that might have otherwise gone to Oregon. More so than Stanford when they were toe to toe with you as they have their own recruiting requirements. Oregon's rise was during an unheard of down time overall in the rest of the NW schools.

And a bottom less wallet that Nike had to get recruits such as Jonathan Stewart.

 

[WizardHawk]

And a bottom less wallet that Nike had to get recruits such as Jonathan Stewart.

We know if Kelly returns to any school the NCAA will be up his ass sideways over his recruiting and any use of services. That's for sure.

 

[socaljim242]

The name Nick Saban ring any bells? Not all college coaches are cut out to be NFL coaches and not all NFL coaches are cut out to be college coaches.

Yeah but pretty sure there's only one Nick Saban. He actually won a NC before he left for the NFL and quickly came back to college . Chips journey the the NFL will have two failures since if he does come back it will because he failed again. Heck the Vikings are winning with a QB he couldn't win with and he's got Kapernick whos exactly the type he should be able to win with given his system but he can't even win with him. Saban ,after getting an 11th ranked recruiting class his first year he subsequently got #1 recruiting classes for three straight years then stayed in the top five since until about six years ago when he got the #1 class every year. CK couldn't pull that type of talent in when he was here the first time especially on defense like Saban has. Chip had his hurry up system that no one had an answer for. Now teams have seen it. The Baylors the TCUs the A&Ms they got points too but like Oregon it wasn't enough without defense. Now the players Chip was getting to run his system are going to many schools and the defenses have adjusted. He might be able to win but the PAC isn't like it was when he left.

 

[wazzu31]

We know if Kelly returns to any school the NCAA will be up his ass sideways over his recruiting and any use of services. That's for sure.

I actually it was under Bellotti's tenure, anyway he was set to come to Pullman, gets hurt in his last HS game then suddenly changes his mind. It was essentially appeared to be a Cam Newton ordeal.

 

[Duckboy33]

Recruiting is everything and a stronger UW (lessor extent WSU) siphon at least some talent that might have otherwise gone to Oregon. More so than Stanford when they were toe to toe with you as they have their own recruiting requirements. Oregon's rise was during an unheard of down time overall in the rest of the NW schools.

UW may hurt Oregon when it comes to PNW recruiting. OSU and WSU aren't factors in big time recruiting (outside of a player here and there). However, as you know, the key is California recruiting. But yes, UW being stronger certainly doesn't help Oregon.

 

[Duckboy33]

Yeah but pretty sure there's only one Nick Saban. He actually won a NC before he left for the NFL and quickly came back to college . Chips journey the the NFL will have two failures since if he does come back it will because he failed again. Heck the Vikings are winning with a QB he couldn't win with and he's got Kapernick whos exactly the type he should be able to win with given his system but he can't even win with him. Saban ,after getting an 11th ranked recruiting class his first year he subsequently got #1 recruiting classes for three straight years then stayed in the top five since until about six years ago when he got the #1 class every year. CK couldn't pull that type of talent in when he was here the first time especially on defense like Saban has. Chip had his hurry up system that no one had an answer for. Now teams have seen it. The Baylors the TCUs the A&Ms they got points too but like Oregon it wasn't enough without defense. Now the players Chip was getting to run his system are going to many schools and the defenses have adjusted. He might be able to win but the PAC isn't like it was when he left.

It may even be weaker right now....

 

[WizardHawk]

UW may hurt Oregon when it comes to PNW recruiting. OSU and WSU aren't factors in big time recruiting (outside of a player here and there). However, as you know, the key is California recruiting. But yes, UW being stronger certainly doesn't help Oregon.

I'm just saying right now it won't help Oregon recover from it's funk nearly as fast. Kelly or not. Petersen is going like crazy in the high level NW pickups. If he managed to pick up Foster Sarell he's pretty much taken a clean sweep. I don't think he will get him, but that's really the only crown jewel left and that says a lot.

 

[TheDayMan]

UW may hurt Oregon when it comes to PNW recruiting. OSU and WSU aren't factors in big time recruiting (outside of a player here and there). However, as you know, the key is California recruiting. But yes, UW being stronger certainly doesn't help Oregon.

Obviously you need to be able to recruit California in this conference, but locking down your own back yard should be priority #1. UW couldn't do it since they went to shit, I don't even think Sark tried. Petersen is making it a priority. It's a big deal.

 

[Duckboy33]

Obviously you need to be able to recruit California in this conference, but locking down your own back yard should be priority #1. UW couldn't do it since they went to shit, I don't even think Sark tried. Petersen is making it a priority. It's a big deal.

It will be interesting to see how UW does in recruiting if this year ends up being a banner year. There's no doubt that UW is certainly locking up Washington more now than they were under Sark.

 

[Duckboy33]

I'm just saying right now it won't help Oregon recover from it's funk nearly as fast. Kelly or not. Petersen is going like crazy in the high level NW pickups. If he managed to pick up Foster Sarell he's pretty much taken a clean sweep. I don't think he will get him, but that's really the only crown jewel left and that says a lot.

Petersen has a lot to sell right now. Oregon has to do something to regain credibility to recruits. I think Chip Kelly could do that.

 

[socaljim242]

It may even be weaker right now....

No way its weaker top to bottom.

 

[WizardHawk]

Petersen has a lot to sell right now. Oregon has to do something to regain credibility to recruits. I think Chip Kelly could do that.

It's the people. Kids are drawn to the message, not necessarily the existing results on the field.

Those high value recruits that were at Autzen when the dogs blew them out pretty much all said it wouldn't change their commitment. They all believe they are the ones that can make the difference and turn things around.

As fans we place a lot of value on win/loss to recruiting, but it's not nearly as high for the kids as we assume.

The danger right now for Oregon is any perception that Helfrich and his staff might be fired. That's far more dangerous than their record. Hard to make a commitment when you aren't sure the guys you are committing to are actually going to be there. Bringing in Kelly would put that to bed and in that way it would shore up some of those recruits.

 

[WizardHawk]

The Pac is/was down this year and it was predictable. In fact many of us banged that drum in the off season. Start with only 4 teams having returning starting QB's. We said this was going to be a rough year for offenses in the conference at least partially because of that. This is why UW and WSU had all that hype. We both had the most experienced offenses in the north. And that has proven to be a big difference. Colorado has shown having an experienced QB to be valuable as well.

There are some teams turning it around like USC, but this isn't an up year for the Pac by any measure.

 

[Duckboy33]

It's the people. Kids are drawn to the message, not necessarily the existing results on the field.

Those high value recruits that were at Autzen when the dogs blew them out pretty much all said it wouldn't change their commitment. They all believe they are the ones that can make the difference and turn things around.

As fans we place a lot of value on win/loss to recruiting, but it's not nearly as high for the kids as we assume.

The danger right now for Oregon is any perception that Helfrich and his staff might be fired. That's far more dangerous than their record. Hard to make a commitment when you aren't sure the guys you are committing to are actually going to be there. Bringing in Kelly would put that to bed and in that way it would shore up some of those recruits.

Bringing back CK wouldn't be your conventional "New" coach.

 

[WizardHawk]

No, bringing back Kelly isn't like sweeping out the old and bringing in the new. The thing is we won't even know if Kelly is even going to leave the NFL until after the end of their season and that's only about a month before LOI day. That's a lot of time between now and then for kids to get cold feet under the uncertainty going on with that staff. Even if he announced the very next day he's returning to Oregon that's not much time to get kids shored up.

So that's another full year before Kelly has real impact on recruiting and another full year before whatever extra he brings reaches the field.

I've been saying Kelly could make things better than they are now. I just don't see that being an immediate turnaround if the talent is really that bad on defense and I'm not convinced he can take them back to the level they were at 2+ years ago. The climate has changed.