The 2020 NFL Draft Thread

[SteelersPride]

And white was mid-late round, right? wouldn't even call that a bust.

Other fallacies I think are absurd are when people say don;t take a QB based on college team or conference.

Or white was an upper round two pick iirc. Thought to be a "steal" who slid

 

[dtgold88]

Or white was an upper round two pick iirc. Thought to be a "steal" who slid

I guess could be called a bust upper round 2. At least a semi-bust.

But as we know, a high % if big QBs flame out who are picked round 1...even very early round 1.

 

[Clayton]

But as we know, a high % if big QBs flame out who are picked round 1...even very early round 1.

The hit rate in rd1 for QBs is still way better than the later rounds. Without looking, I suspect the hit rate in rd1 is around 40% while the hit rate in later rounds is probably closer to 10%.

 

[dtgold88]

The hit rate in rd1 for QBs is still way better than the later rounds. Without looking, I suspect the hit rate in rd1 is around 40% while the hit rate in later rounds is probably closer to 10%.

Of course....which means the bust rate is 60% on mosly big QBs, so idea to avoid smaller QBs who are thought to be potential 1st rounders is absurd.

 

[Clayton]

Of course....which means the bust rate is 60% on mosly big QBs, so idea to avoid smaller QBs who are thought to be potential 1st rounders is absurd.

There really isn't enough data to say anything about smaller QBs. It would be like talking about the bust rate on Asian QBs or women QBs. Twenty years ago, Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray would be playing baseball and not QB.

A couple of things happened in the NFL recently:

1) We're protecting QBs more
2) Drew Brees happened

Brees and then Wilson showed that short QBs can really dominate as long as they release the ball right. Usually that requires large hands, a strong core, and/or great technique.

I'm still not sure how I feel about Murray going #1. He could be a top 5 QB in this league but I see a guy with 93 rush attempts and 48 sacks in a season and I'm seeing someone that won't last 6 seasons in the league. To put that into perspective, Mahomes has only taken 45 sacks total and he has still been dinged up.

 

[SteelersPride]

I guess could be called a bust upper round 2. At least a semi-bust.

But as we know, a high % if big QBs flame out who are picked round 1...even very early round 1.

yes sir

 

[mcnabb7542]

yes sir

Why don't you two go get a room....

 

[mcnabb7542]

There really isn't enough data to say anything about smaller QBs. It would be like talking about the bust rate on Asian QBs or women QBs. Twenty years ago, Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray would be playing baseball and not QB.

A couple of things happened in the NFL recently:

1) We're protecting QBs more
2) Drew Brees happened

Brees and then Wilson showed that short QBs can really dominate as long as they release the ball right. Usually that requires large hands, a strong core, and/or great technique.

I'm still not sure how I feel about Murray going #1. He could be a top 5 QB in this league but I see a guy with 93 rush attempts and 48 sacks in a season and I'm seeing someone that won't last 6 seasons in the league. To put that into perspective, Mahomes has only taken 45 sacks total and he has still been dinged up.

I think in today's game it boils down to who the coaching staff's fall in love with. Measurements are a thing of the past now. The game is always evolving and the RPO is the new hot thing so they don't care if that starting QB is 6'3, as long as he can throw the ball into that window or pull it out and take off with it is all that matters.

 

[SteelersPride]

Why don't you two go get a room....

 

[Clayton]

I think in today's game it boils down to who the coaching staff's fall in love with. Measurements are a thing of the past now. The game is always evolving and the RPO is the new hot thing so they don't care if that starting QB is 6'3, as long as he can throw the ball into that window or pull it out and take off with it is all that matters.

Or in some cases, the owner. Rams were long rumored to be picking Wentz until they didn't. Some think Kroenke jumped in and said Goff was his guy.

Usually I'd imagine its the Scout convincing the GM who convinces the coaches.

 

[shopson67]

There really isn't enough data to say anything about smaller QBs. It would be like talking about the bust rate on Asian QBs or women QBs. Twenty years ago, Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray would be playing baseball and not QB.

A couple of things happened in the NFL recently:

1) We're protecting QBs more
2) Drew Brees happened

Brees and then Wilson showed that short QBs can really dominate as long as they release the ball right. Usually that requires large hands, a strong core, and/or great technique.

I'm still not sure how I feel about Murray going #1. He could be a top 5 QB in this league but I see a guy with 93 rush attempts and 48 sacks in a season and I'm seeing someone that won't last 6 seasons in the league. To put that into perspective, Mahomes has only taken 45 sacks total and he has still been dinged up.

Russell Wilson may be the shortest QB to win a Superbowl, but at 5'11 he's just a notch below Theisman and Brees, plus he's a developed passer. The bigger issue with most of these shorter QBs are the systems they played in. The list of QBs that have failed in the NFL that came from Air-Raid type programs is pretty long, regardless of height, and these newer one-read and RPO offenses fall into that category IMO. Turns out being able to progress beyond the first read is pretty important in the NFL.

 

[shopson67]

Of course....which means the bust rate is 60% on mosly big QBs, so idea to avoid smaller QBs who are thought to be potential 1st rounders is absurd.

You have to look a lot deeper than just height IMO. Unfortunately for those smaller QBs, they aren't always recruited into the top programs with pro-style offenses. They may be capable of more than their one-read college offenses require, but that's not an easy sell at draft time.

 

[Clayton]

I was watching some of Justin Herbert and thinking he looks like a potential Carson Wentz if he develops. The NFL draft profile has that as his player comp, too. I feel like he could have gone top 3 last year. Should go top 5 this year.

 

[dtgold88]

I was watching some of Justin Herbert and thinking he looks like a potential Carson Wentz if he develops. The NFL draft profile has that as his player comp, too. I feel like he could have gone top 3 last year. Should go top 5 this year.

The more QBs before #10 the merrier.

 

[mcnabb7542]

Or in some cases, the owner. Rams were long rumored to be picking Wentz until they didn't. Some think Kroenke jumped in and said Goff was his guy.

Usually I'd imagine its the Scout convincing the GM who convinces the coaches.

Yeah I think the convincing ways you have listed are pretty close but at the end of the day its the HC with the call since he has to be able to win with him

 

[mcnabb7542]

I was watching some of Justin Herbert and thinking he looks like a potential Carson Wentz if he develops. The NFL draft profile has that as his player comp, too. I feel like he could have gone top 3 last year. Should go top 5 this year.

After watch his guy for four years he has one small flaw that could be fixed with the right coaching staff, you move him off his spot the velocity of his passes gets a little wild.

If someone teaches him how to roll out and get his feet back under himself he could be dangerous.

And I really don't talk Duck players up, I actually threw up a little in my mouth typing that

 

[SteelersPride]

After watch his guy for four years he has one small flaw that could be fixed with the right coaching staff, you move him off his spot the velocity of his passes gets a little wild.

If someone teaches him how to roll out and get his feet back under himself he could be dangerous.

And I really don't talk Duck players up, I actually threw up a little in my mouth typing that

He seems like he is short a nut, just doesn't have the "it" factor, or killer instinct. Always leave you wanting more

 

[mcnabb7542]

He seems like he is short a nut, just doesn't have the "it" factor, or killer instinct. Always leave you wanting more

I would agree with that statement, but again that is something a good QB coach could trigger in him, or a teammate calling out his lack of balls to light a fire under his arse

 

[SteelersPride]

I would agree with that statement, but again that is something a good QB coach could trigger in him, or a teammate calling out his lack of balls to light a fire under his arse

See, i disagree. Hes been playing football his whole life, hes gonna magically find that killer instinct all these years later because someone just now told him too,? i dunno im quite skeptical

I mean even the guys that suck in the nfl, who doesnt have some moxie thats a starter? tanny? goff maybe, literally everyone does.

 

[mcnabb7542]

See, i disagree. Hes been playing football his whole life, hes gonna magically find that killer instinct all these years later because someone just now told him too,? i dunno im quite skeptical

I mean even the guys that suck in the nfl, who doesnt have some moxie thats a starter? tanny? goff maybe, literally everyone does.

I think when you hand millions to a 20 something guy and you coach him on and off the field you can change his mentality...

And a few years backs I said the same thing about Matt Ryan, thought he didn't show the killer attitude