Survivor

[MilkSpiller22]

It was the placing of the seed.

Then, at camp, she said it was all BS (which didn’t make a lot of sense) only to double down at the next tribal.

Obviously e see very little of what happens on the beach, but I thought it very odd they never showed her interaction with Joe. The two of them seemed such an obvious pair. Both older players AND FD officers

the problem with the 5 is that they are not hiding it... i think that was the problem... Chrissy saw Joe had a main core of 3 and then a new core of 6... if she bent the knee sure, she would have been less of a target this week... but still an easy target for soon...

the i dont want to give Joe even more power than he has... might have even been jealousy, because like i mentioned earlier, she saw a clear path to final 5 since her old tribe dominated... and joe was a clear enemy in every way possible for her...

 

[calsnowskier]

Updated prediction list. Still very low confidence…

Camilla
Joe
Mitch
Kyle

Eva
Star
Mary
Shauhim

David

David is shown as the top dog/organizer of the Strong 5. And while he appears to be sniffing out Kyle/Camilla, a high profile comp beast will be too enticing a target not to take out asap.

Joe was sucked into the Kyle/Camilla lie and picked the wrong narrative. He was fooled, and that doesn’t look good to the viewers for a winner.

Kyle lost his poise in camp trying to save Camilla while Camilla was shown keeping her cool at the vote-challenge.

Mary is now officially the 6th member of a 5-person alliance. As a floater, I think that is actually a really strong position.

Star lost the vote-challenge, but it didn’t matter. A bit furniture-like, but I think that pep talk from a few episodes back was important for her edit. If she doesn’t get a decent narrative this next episode, I think I will have to drop her to the lowest tier, though.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Updated prediction list. Still very low confidence…

Camilla
Joe
Mitch
Kyle

Eva
Star
Mary
Shauhim

David

David is shown as the top dog/organizer of the Strong 5. And while he appears to be sniffing out Kyle/Camilla, a high profile comp beast will be too enticing a target not to take out asap.

Joe was sucked into the Kyle/Camilla lie and picked the wrong narrative. He was fooled, and that doesn’t look good to the viewers for a winner.

Kyle lost his poise in camp trying to save Camilla while Camilla was shown keeping her cool at the vote-challenge.

Mary is now officially the 6th member of a 5-person alliance. As a floater, I think that is actually a really strong position.

Star lost the vote-challenge, but it didn’t matter. A bit furniture-like, but I think that pep talk from a few episodes back was important for her edit. If she doesn’t get a decent narrative this next episode, I think I will have to drop her to the lowest tier, though.

i get the impression Joe cant win this.... he seems like he is too tight with Eva, that he will sacrifice himself for eva's survival... which means the only way Eva will NOT beat out Joe is if Joe wins the immunity that week...

 

[calsnowskier]

i get the impression Joe cant win this.... he seems like he is too tight with Eva, that he will sacrifice himself for eva's survival... which means the only way Eva will NOT beat out Joe is if Joe wins the immunity that week...

Yup

And I have zero respect for any player who sacrifices their own game for another player. That is so simp. The only situation where I EVER supported it was Evel Dick in BB constantly trying to sacrifice himself for Dani until they got to final 2 when he finally flipped it and fought for himself.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Camilla
Joe
Mitch
Kyle

Eva
Star
Mary
Shauhim

David

David is shown as the top dog/organizer of the Strong 5. And while he appears to be sniffing out Kyle/Camilla, a high profile comp beast will be too enticing a target not to take out asap.

Joe was sucked into the Kyle/Camilla lie and picked the wrong narrative. He was fooled, and that doesn’t look good to the viewers for a winner.

Kyle lost his poise in camp trying to save Camilla while Camilla was shown keeping her cool at the vote-challenge.

Mary is now officially the 6th member of a 5-person alliance. As a floater, I think that is actually a really strong position.

Star lost the vote-challenge, but it didn’t matter. A bit furniture-like, but I think that pep talk from a few episodes back was important for her edit. If she doesn’t get a decent narrative this next episode, I think I will have to drop her to the lowest tier, though.

Kyle cant protect Kamilla for too much longer... so the only way she makes it to the final 6 is if David is gone... and if david is not gone soon, there will be no reason to go against the alliance...

which makes me think that David has to go down this coming week...

right now it is Kamilla, mitch and Star vs the world... and if david is not off this week then those three will be picked off very easily...

 

[calsnowskier]

I forgot to post my updated predictions after this week’s episode. So far, I have been pretty spot on at the bottom spots. I think I have a clear top spot favorite at this point, though, but I am not that confident it is accurate yet.

Camilla

Mitch
Kyle

Joe
Eva

Star
Mary
Shauhim

Camilla hasn’t done a whole lot ON CAMERA, but she is being portrayed as some mastermind strategist. “Telling, not showing” is a classic tell for a weak winning player.

Kyle is doing Camilla’s heavy lifting, but he is coming off as a disruptor. They are also showing him as the guy who is duping the “lovable” Joe. He is the villain of the season.

Joe is the simp of the season who is falling for Kyle’s lies, hook line and sinker.

Eva is ultimately too naive. She will be taken out in a blindside as players realize she is too likable.

Mitch is likable, a challenge beast AND under the radar. He really isn’t getting a real WE, but he is featured in most episodes with a positive spin.

Shauhim is turning into set dressing. He seems to be playing a decent game, but he just isn’t driving anything and seems to be the target of too many players.

Star and Mary aren’t doing anything and aren’t getting much of an edit at all. I think Star is getting a pronounced bad edit and Mary may be getting a delayed focus, but it is too late in the game, I think, to not have focused on the winner yet.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I forgot to post my updated predictions after this week’s episode. So far, I have been pretty spot on at the bottom spots. I think I have a clear top spot favorite at this point, though, but I am not that confident it is accurate yet.

Camilla

Mitch
Kyle

Joe
Eva

Star
Mary
Shauhim

Camilla hasn’t done a whole lot ON CAMERA, but she is being portrayed as some mastermind strategist. “Telling, not showing” is a classic tell for a weak winning player.

Kyle is doing Camilla’s heavy lifting, but he is coming off as a disruptor. They are also showing him as the guy who is duping the “lovable” Joe. He is the villain of the season.

Joe is the simp of the season who is falling for Kyle’s lies, hook line and sinker.

Eva is ultimately too naive. She will be taken out in a blindside as players realize she is too likable.

Mitch is likable, a challenge beast AND under the radar. He really isn’t getting a real WE, but he is featured in most episodes with a positive spin.

Shauhim is turning into set dressing. He seems to be playing a decent game, but he just isn’t driving anything and seems to be the target of too many players.

Star and Mary aren’t doing anything and aren’t getting much of an edit at all. I think Star is getting a pronounced bad edit and Mary may be getting a delayed focus, but it is too late in the game, I think, to not have focused on the winner yet.

Mary is getting the edit of Yoko Ono.. she brought David down, just by being with him... and that ultimately killed the big 5... as the big 4+ Mary seems unlikely...

I liked Mary a lot before she got into the big 6 alliance... hoped she would actually team up with Camillla and Kyle...

but now she is just excess baggage, and probably the next to go home...

which really makes Camilla and Kyle that much stronger...


as of right now I only see Eva, Joe, Camilla and Kyle to have a chance to win.... and I would really cross of Joe, as he is too close to Eva, and he is to dominant of a competitior..


but I do agree that Starr and Mitch have to do something soon, to make them look like actual competitors...

 

[MilkSpiller22]

this weeks episode was a victim of the edit IMO...

everyone is calling Star a WC and how nobody can trust her... but the edit has never shown anything negative about her, nobody even talks about her throughout the season... only thing was that she was on the bottom of her pre-merged tribe... but that was really all they ever said...

so being too scared of going to rocks because of her is just a strange thing to tell the audience...

its hard to watch an alliance dominate, and nobody even tries to stop it...

also, i wonder if David was really that angry, or if the production was really trying to create that narrative for some reason...

 

[Sparhawk]

this weeks episode was a victim of the edit IMO...

everyone is calling Star a WC and how nobody can trust her... but the edit has never shown anything negative about her, nobody even talks about her throughout the season... only thing was that she was on the bottom of her pre-merged tribe... but that was really all they ever said...

so being too scared of going to rocks because of her is just a strange thing to tell the audience...

its hard to watch an alliance dominate, and nobody even tries to stop it...

also, i wonder if David was really that angry, or if the production was really trying to create that narrative for some reason...

David looked like he was ready to physically harm someone.

That being said, it's amazing that Mitch doesn't see the endgame and couldn't trust Star.
Though, she did vote for him previously.

We also got the edits of Joe and Eva being obnoxiously comfortable, which is usually the kiss of death.

But, not this time.
lt stands to reason that Camilla/Shaheen/Kyle will figure out that they can't let Joe/Eva get to the end, so there's still a lot up in the air.
I don't see this going chalk with Mary and Mitch going next, but who knows.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

David looked like he was ready to physically harm someone.

That being said, it's amazing that Mitch doesn't see the endgame and couldn't trust Star.
Though, she did vote for him previously.

We also got the edits of Joe and Eva being obnoxiously comfortable, which is usually the kiss of death.

But, not this time.
lt stands to reason that Camilla/Shaheen/Kyle will figure out that they can't let Joe/Eva get to the end, so there's still a lot up in the air.
I don't see this going chalk with Mary and Mitch going next, but who knows.

yea, hopefully shaheen and kyle realize this and soon... but krissy is right... the problem with a big alliance playing the way they are is that it is hard to differentiate game from them...

right now Joe or Eva would win solely because they are comp beasts... and Eva will beat joe every time...

and i agree the over comfortability of eva and Joe made me think SOMETHING was going to happen... and made me even more disapponted that nothing did happen...

 

[calsnowskier]

David looked like he was ready to physically harm someone.

That being said, it's amazing that Mitch doesn't see the endgame and couldn't trust Star.
Though, she did vote for him previously.

We also got the edits of Joe and Eva being obnoxiously comfortable, which is usually the kiss of death.

But, not this time.
lt stands to reason that Camilla/Shaheen/Kyle will figure out that they can't let Joe/Eva get to the end, so there's still a lot up in the air.
I don't see this going chalk with Mary and Mitch going next, but who knows.

Edit-wise, this was a BAD episode for Mitch. They portrayed him as spineless and scared to take a risk. Not something you want in your winner.

 

[calsnowskier]

Updated prediction based on edit…

Camilla - they hinted at her and Kyle growing apart, which probably is her cue to start playing her own game, not just a bit player in Kyle’s

Kyle - they also showed him playing his own game, not just the front for Camilla
Mary - she “lost” by not being able to get one of the 4 out, but she also stepped up as a real threat in everyone’s eyes

Joe - he is still shown to be a bit clueless as to how others are playing, but he is also shown playing his own game and making lemonade out of not getting picked for the reward.
Eva - a non-episode for her, but just continuing her narrative. Her comfort level she displayed is never a good sign, though.

Mitch - bad ep for him as he was shown to be spineless, but he has still had a pretty positive edit to this point
Shauhim - is constantly mentioned as a backup plan for votes. Not the image of a winner

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Updated prediction based on edit…

Camilla - they hinted at her and Kyle growing apart, which probably is her cue to start playing her own game, not just a bit player in Kyle’s

Kyle - they also showed him playing his own game, not just the front for Camilla
Mary - she “lost” by not being able to get one of the 4 out, but she also stepped up as a real threat in everyone’s eyes

Joe - he is still shown to be a bit clueless as to how others are playing, but he is also shown playing his own game and making lemonade out of not getting picked for the reward.
Eva - a non-episode for her, but just continuing her narrative. Her comfort level she displayed is never a good sign, though.

Mitch - bad ep for him as he was shown to be spineless, but he has still had a pretty positive edit to this point
Shauhim - is constantly mentioned as a backup plan for votes. Not the image of a winner

at this point, just by game play and Milk's projections of optimal strategies..
(NON CBS EDIT EDITION)

here is my rankings on who has the best chance to win

1. Eva- if she is in the final 3, she is winning... this is the season of autism...

2. Kyle- he has done so much to keep Camilla alive, and has pushed others out by doing so, that he can actually tell a story...

3. Camilla- The best strategist of the season, but needs to make big moves to have a chance

4. Mitch- The most likeable character out there, his social game is best... but needs to make a couple moves to really have a chance

5. Joe- you would think with Eva at #1 Joe should be #2 at least... but this is the most likely to win list, not the most likely to be final 3... He is not going to backstab Eva... and he might even fall on the sword to save Eva if needed...

6. Shauhin- he is the easy target of the three headed monster( Eva, Joe, Shauhin) but he is also the most likely to flip... if he does flip, then he just becomes the biggest target in the game..

7. Mary- her becoming part of the 6 was the worst thing for her game... the 4 left in the game all blame her for breaking up the 6... she aint getting the votes even if she makes it to the final 3... but being on the outside she is also most likely to be the next one out...

 

[MilkSpiller22]

well as expected Mary went home... she really screwed up her game by acting like a child... you dont survive when you are on the bottom AND you act like that... just makes it easier for the people who didnt want to flip, not to flip....

which is a total shame, this was the perfect time to get out Joe... doubt they will get a chance like this again, since Eva has both big advantages... and i think both end this week...

 

[ROMOTOOWENS]

Im leaning hard towards Kyle or Camilla. That secret alliance is really holding

 

[Sparhawk]

Im leaning hard towards Kyle or Camilla. That secret alliance is really holding

I dunno.

It's a secret alliance that so far has had little to no impact on the game.
Every decision they have made is to support Joe, Eva, and Shaheen.

When they had a chance to flip the script and get rid of Joe, they couldn't pull the trigger.

Now, maybe they can still make moves and get to the end, but right now it's all bark and no bite.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Im leaning hard towards Kyle or Camilla. That secret alliance is really holding

Joe and Eva are just in too much control... i think both the advantages expire next week... so if they both use one, they are both safe...

and also they are way too strong, we will see who wins immunity next week... Kyle is the clear 4th of 4, while mitch and Camilla were only part of the 6 in name, but that was just to peacefully get out Star and Mary...

my guess that next week Mitch or SHauhin goes home... probably mitch..

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I dunno.

It's a secret alliance that so far has had little to no impact on the game.
Every decision they have made is to support Joe, Eva, and Shaheen.

When they had a chance to flip the script and get rid of Joe, they couldn't pull the trigger.

Now, maybe they can still make moves and get to the end, but right now it's all bark and no bite.

yea.. kyle is a little weak sauce... he had such a good secret duo with Camilla... and even took out David... which was huge... but ever since, he has just wanted to play with the core 4...

this has been a very weak season....

 

[calsnowskier]

Im leaning hard towards Kyle or Camilla. That secret alliance is really holding

Joe and Eva are the power duo, but they keep talking like they are in complete control. The producers are working really hard to make them unlikable. Meaning they are selling Kyle/Camilla as the “good guys” who we should be rooting for. I still think Camilla isn’t being SHOWN o be doing anything. We are meant to believe she is doing things, but we really don’t SEE it.

Kyle
Camilla

Mitch
Eva
Joe

Shauhim