Suh's new contract??????

[broncosmitty]

Our run defense is excellent on account of the best defensive player on the team. Little impact my ass.

I hate to think what the defense looks like without him. Or the other 2 FA to be DTs.


Im still firmly in the "Pay the muhfuggah" camp.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

If you want Suh you are going to need to pay him out in excess of $100 M in the first 5 years and the contract will be structured in such a way that you wont' be able to cut him over those first 5 years. That is what he is going to be worth on the open market IMO.

Do you realize the highest paid defensive player doesn't make 17 million a year? Unless Dan Snyder decides to make another boneheaded offer or Al Davis resurrects from his grave -- I don't see any team offering Suh a deal like that.

You are basically saying a team is going to offer him 100 million guaranteed over 5 years.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

Our run defense is excellent on account of the best defensive player on the team. Little impact my ass.

I agree Suh helps, but to say he is the main reason, I'd have to ask -- why were we so poor against the run before last year?

The run defense, IMO, has improved because of multiple factors. The emergence of Levy, Fairley in shape and healthy, drafting Ansah, etc. Suh is the leader of the defense, but the weakest part of his game since he has been a Lion has been his run stopping (though he has looked much better this year).

 

[TwoCents22]

I agree Suh helps, but to say he is the main reason, I'd have to ask -- why were we so poor against the run before last year?

The run defense, IMO, has improved because of multiple factors. The emergence of Levy, Fairley in shape and healthy, drafting Ansah, etc. Suh is the leader of the defense, but the weakest part of his game since he has been a Lion has been his run stopping (though he has looked much better this year).

Suh 3rd in tackles for loss amongst DTs. 1st in combined sacks, hits, and hurries.

IMO the big increase so far is due to a couple things: ditching the wide 9. Not being 2nd to last in blitz %. Emergence of decent secondary play. And last but not least, Fairley playing for a contract.

Old lion saying Suh is "borderline top 5 DT" is absurd. He's playing like the best DT in the NFL, and has been regarded as a top 2 or 3 player at DT basically every year.

Its also illogical to incinuate Suh is lacking run stop ability simply because "Lions have struggled against the run in concurrence with Suh on the team in recent history". Plenty other DTs(and DEs, CBs, and LBs) have been apart of defenses with weaknesses, including but not limited to, run defense. Doesn't mean that they definitely aren't good at that aspect.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

IMO the big increase so far is due to a couple things: ditching the wide 9. Not being 2nd to last in blitz %. Emergence of decent secondary play. And last but not least, Fairley playing for a contract.

Detroit was 6th in rush defense last year. If it wasn't for a game played in a blizzard with a foot of snow on the ground where philly ran for a ton of yards -- they would have been top 3 or 4. The prior years with Suh on the team -- the Lions were anywhere from 16-24th against the run.

That is why I mentioned the addition of Ansah and emergence of Levy. Suh and Fairley played together for a couple years and the numbers looked nothing like they have the last two years.

I'd blame the wide-9, but we were really good against the run last year while playing the wide-9, with the exception of the fluky blizzard game.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

Old lion saying Suh is "borderline top 5 DT" is absurd. He's playing like the best DT in the NFL, and has been regarded as a top 2 or 3 player at DT basically every year.

Agree with you here. Suh is definitely not a borderline anything. He is one of the best DT's in the NFL. I have no idea how Atkins or McCoy are playing right now, as I haven't had the chance to watch either play, but Suh has been a beast this year.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

Its also illogical to incinuate Suh is lacking run stop ability simply because "Lions have struggled against the run in concurrence with Suh on the team in recent history".

Here is a quote about Suh's issues against the run. I have to run inside to get my little guy up, but I'll come back later to talk about it.

Teams figured out how to attack him, and attack they did. Pro Football Focus (subscription required) graded out Suh at -6.5 against the run in 2012. That ranked him 73rd out of 85 qualifying defensive tackles and detracted from his second-ranked pass-rushing ability.

Through the first two games of 2013, Suh has raised his grade from -6.5 to 0.3. It’s still not great, but he’s no longer a detriment in run defense.

 

[TwoCents22]

Teams figured out how to attack him, and attack they did. Pro Football Focus

Agree with this part. Again, just because a team can take advantage of the whole defense versus the run, doesn't necessarily make Suh bad at that aspect. Avril was absolutely a huge liability at run defense IMO.

Fortunately for the Lions, Suh hasn't missed any time, and has not allowed us to witness the defense without him. Most likely its going to be without him next year, so we'll see if I'm wrong, but I'm still saying we're an average defense without him.

 

[TwoCents22]

BTW, Trust me, do you have a subscription to PFF? I love how they have a lot of in depth stats, but have been weary of paying the fee because some people hate that site.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

BTW, Trust me, do you have a subscription to PFF? I love how they have a lot of in depth stats, but have been weary of paying the fee because some people hate that site.

No subscription for me. I usually just look at the free stuff they have. I don't usually use PFF, as a lot of the stats you need to be a math major to figure out on how they are calculated, but some of them are really enlightening.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

Agree with this part. Again, just because a team can take advantage of the whole defense versus the run, doesn't necessarily make Suh bad at that aspect. Avril was absolutely a huge liability at run defense IMO.

Fortunately for the Lions, Suh hasn't missed any time, and has not allowed us to witness the defense without him. Most likely its going to be without him next year, so we'll see if I'm wrong, but I'm still saying we're an average defense without him.

I know the Lions struggles against the run isn't all on Suh. I agree it had to do with DE's who also struggled against the run (avril and an aging KVB). The first couple years Suh was in the league though -- teams would run traps and delays right at him. He has anticipated a little better over the last year and change, but it still isn't a strength of his game. That is why I said -- the improvement against the run has more to do with additions to the team, than it does with Suh. Ansah was the highest rated DL against the run last year for Detroit. Levy played at an all-pro level last year and has carried it over this year. Devin Taylor played great for a rookie last year.

If Suh excelled against the run like he does rushing the passer -- No DT would be near him in terms of who the best DT is, IMO. The reason McCoy was rated as the top DT by basically every publication before the season is -- he was always one of the best against the run and last year, he added 9.5 sacks to show he can get to the QB too.

It would be a tremendous loss to the defense if Suh leaves, but IMO, no DT in the NFL is worth being the highest paid defensive player in the NFL. Also -- I don't think that would even be in the discussion if we hadn't drafted him 2nd overall when the ridiculous rookie scale was in place and he was made the highest paid DT without playing a snap.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

Fortunately for the Lions, Suh hasn't missed any time, and has not allowed us to witness the defense without him. Most likely its going to be without him next year, so we'll see if I'm wrong, but I'm still saying we're an average defense without him.

He was suspended for two games. The team went 1-1 against New Orleans and I believe, Minnesota. That was a couple years ago though. I don't remember how the defense looked or anything like that.

As far as being an average defense without him -- it is pretty much what the Lions have been with Suh on the team. It wasn't until last year the defense took any type of jump and I know people hate when I say it, but we had either the easiest or 2nd easiest schedule -- so that really helped out.

This year -- with Austin, is what really impresses me. They have dealt with numerous injuries and players missing games and/or the season -- yet they have continued to play a high level.

I think removing Suh will hurt the defense, but it also depends on who replaces him and what other areas are upgraded when/or if he does leave.

 

[tpaulus_2]

BTW, Trust me, do you have a subscription to PFF? I love how they have a lot of in depth stats, but have been weary of paying the fee because some people hate that site.

I used to hate them, until they got bought out by a bigger company. It used to be some British dudes analyzing stats, but my issue with that is that British guys wouldn't have grown up playing 'Merican football, so I didn't feel like they really understood what they were analyzing.

The analytics they offer now seem much more sound and logical. The only current issue I have now is that whomever is analyzing all that film still doesn't have the benefit of the play call, so they're still doing a lot of guessing on who was supposed to do what on a given play...

 

[Old Lion]

Even if you want to make the argument that Suh is the best DT in football, no coach is going to agree that the best DT in football is worth as much as the best WR in football.

Everyone on the team can not make 20 mil a year. Lets put it this way, if you have to choose between Suh and Megatron. Who you taking?

 

[gandydancer]

Even if you want to make the argument that Suh is the best DT in football, no coach is going to agree that the best DT in football is worth as much as the best WR in football.

Everyone on the team can not make 20 mil a year. Lets put it this way, if you have to choose between Suh and Megatron. Who you taking?

Depends how my team is laid out and current personnel OLd Lion.

I may not want to over pay Suh, but come on. A superstar is a superstar. Suh will excel on any team as would CJ. I will say with current team makeup in say a offense Like Denver and no CJ is needed. I would take Suh over CJ in Denver. Now they run 3-4 but showing why I would look at team makeup.

Suh is a beast. I just realize that 18 million will cripple worse than they are. Now if they can get a contract like the way Meow wrote out. I could do 14 maybe 15 cap hits. JMO

Is there still dead money on Bush's contract next year? Many ways for cap space as long as it not a bunch of restructure deals.

 

[Old Lion]

Depends how my team is laid out and current personnel OLd Lion.

I may not want to over pay Suh, but come on. A superstar is a superstar. Suh will excel on any team as would CJ. I will say with current team makeup in say a offense Like Denver and no CJ is needed. I would take Suh over CJ in Denver. Now they run 3-4 but showing why I would look at team makeup.

Suh is a beast. I just realize that 18 million will cripple worse than they are. Now if they can get a contract like the way Meow wrote out. I could do 14 maybe 15 cap hits. JMO

Is there still dead money on Bush's contract next year? Many ways for cap space as long as it not a bunch of restructure deals.

Thats what I am hoping for.

We all love Suh and want him to stay. Like some here I just refuse to break the bank. I would not mind if we decided to go to a 3-4 and add some LB depth behind Levy, Tulloch, Whitehead, and Van Noy. I am itching to get all 4 of them on the field at the same time. We would need to find a fat ass to be a NT. Maybe we let Fairly go back to his old eating habits, LOL. A 3-4 would lessen the burden to an extent on the DBs as well.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

Everyone on the team can not make 20 mil a year. Lets put it this way, if you have to choose between Suh and Megatron. Who you taking?

Here is what everyone seems to be missing. No DT makes 13 million a year. No DT makes 14 million a year. No DT makes 16, 17, 18, 19 or 20 million. Suh's rookie deal made him the highest paid DT in the NFL.

He is a great DT. Arguably one of the top 2 or 3. IMO, there is no reason for the Lions to become the trendsetter when it comes to handing out contracts. We've watched Richard Sherman, Patrick Peterson and JJ Watt all sign deals in the last year -- none of them are making 17 million per season and all 3 play premier positions in the NFL where the pay scale is much higher. It why QB's make more money than anyone. WR's make more than TE's. Tackles make more than Guards.

Let me ask this -- Say Larry Warford continues to develop and becomes an all-pro OG -- would you give him a contract making him the highest paid offensive linemen?

 

[broncosmitty]

Maybe, but I'll definitely hold this seasons poor offensive line play against him, in conversations two or three years from now, concerning his second contract.

 

[TwoCents22]

Let me ask this -- Say Larry Warford continues to develop and becomes an all-pro OG -- would you give him a contract making him the highest paid offensive linemen?

HELL NOOOOOOOO!!!!

That's a horrible comparison anyway. Suh doesn't have a $20 mil a year guy, an $18 mil a year guy, a $6 mil a year guy, and a few $4 mil a year guys on defense with him. (Like Warford does on offense)

If we had over inflated contracts on defense, but our offense was carrying us and it was evident Warford was not only our best player on offense, but our offense was centered around him, then YES PAY HIM!!! But that is far from the case, isn't it?

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

That's a horrible comparison anyway. Suh doesn't have a $20 mil a year guy, an $18 mil a year guy, a $6 mil a year guy, and a few $4 mil a year guys on defense with him. (Like Warford does on offense)

Doesn't Suh have a guy picked #5 overall and a guy picked #13 overall playing along side him on the DL? You can't say that about Warford.

And 22 -- this is all hypothetical. Both interior linemen, one offense, one defense. I'd think the comparison would be about the same IF Warford becomes an all-pro OG. I'm not talking about the Warford of right now.

To make it easier -- skip Warford altogether. Let's say one of the best offensive guards in the NFL next year is on the Lions. For discussion purposes -- we will say his name is Gandy McSmitty. Many argue McSmitty is the best OG in the NFL hands down. The Lions offense is ranked in the top 5 in the NFL and McSmitty is the best OL on the team. He says he wants to be the highest paid OL in the NFL. Do you pay him more than the best LT in the NFL?

My response would be absolutely not. IMO, that is the same as paying a DT the same type of money you pay the best DE's in the game. It is also why I said -- IF Suh was going to produce like he did in his rookie year with double digit sacks and 50+ tackles -- I would be fine with paying him that kind of money, as you don't get that type of production consistently out of DT's. He hasn't come near his rookie numbers in the last 3 years though. Crossing my fingers and hoping that changes in 2014, even though it will likely up his asking price.