Stafford's Turnovers Way Down

[tpaulus_2]

I can't remember which thread it was, but several weeks ago we were debating if Stafford's turnovers were down this year or not. I pointed out that on a per-game basis, they were down. But I got slammed for that, because Stafford finished last season on a turnover binge, and I was assured that he would do the same again this year, so therefore his turnovers were not, in fact, down.

Well how's that argument now? I'm not even sure off the top of my head when Stafford's last INT was- New England, I'd guess? He's right on the cusp of a 2-1 TD to INT ratio, and has closed this season (so far) the polar opposite of last year.

And yet I was assured his turnovers aren't down this year...

 

[Rollingthndr]

Yeah, he has pretty much turned into Alex Smith. Complete game manager. His job is simply to not lose us any games instead of leading the team to victory.


Stafford- 3797 19/10 QBR- 87.8
Smith- 2954 18/6 QBR- 93.9

 

[broncosmitty]

His turnovers are now down in comparison to last year. They weren't when the conversation was going on before.

The 49ers were very much in the playoff hunt then. They now are eliminated. Things change as time goes by.

This has been a very good December in comparison to years past. Hope that continues.

 

[tpaulus_2]

Yeah, he has pretty much turned into Alex Smith. Complete game manager. His job is simply to not lose us any games instead of leading the team to victory.


Stafford- 3797 19/10 QBR- 87.8
Smith- 2954 18/6 QBR- 93.9

Few more yards than Smith, though. I'll take a 4,300 yard, 22 TD, 11 INT season out of Stafford. The TD numbers are far less than he's capable of, but that would (will) also represent a marked reduction in turnovers. Game managers also don't really get 4,000 yard seasons all that often. Stafford isn't putting up the production we've become accustomed to by means of gross output, but I'll argue that this may have been his second-best overall season as a pro (he was absurd in 2011). When the dust settles at the end of the season he'll still finish in the top ten in passing yards, so that kind of clashes with the game manager argument as well.

With the defense we have the numbers I posted above (Stafford's current averages projected out over two more games) are plenty enough production out of the QB position, imo...

 

[LPinSLC]

When the statement was made, his turnovers weren't down. They were even. This year, he hasn't hit that slump.

 

[LPinSLC]

Few more yards than Smith, though. I'll take a 4,300 yard, 22 TD, 11 INT season out of Stafford. The TD numbers are far less than he's capable of, but that would (will) also represent a marked reduction in turnovers. Game managers also don't really get 4,000 yard seasons all that often. Stafford isn't putting up the production we've become accustomed to by means of gross output, but I'll argue that this may have been his second-best overall season as a pro (he was absurd in 2011). When the dust settles at the end of the season he'll still finish in the top ten in passing yards, so that kind of clashes with the game manager argument as well.

With the defense we have the numbers I posted above (Stafford's current averages projected out over two more games) are plenty enough production out of the QB position, imo...

Game manager and limiting turnovers are two different agendas. The fact that a QB eclipsing(or on pace to do so) 4k yards makes him a game manager only speaks to the quality/potential at the QB position.

 

[Winged_Wheel88]

Was just noticing this the other day. It's awesome that his INTs are down. Very, very happy with this development.

I hope it's not a passing fad.

 

[broncosmitty]

Yeah, he has pretty much turned into Alex Smith. Complete game manager. His job is simply to not lose us any games instead of leading the team to victory.


Stafford- 3797 19/10 QBR- 87.8
Smith- 2954 18/6 QBR- 93.9

Alex Smith's responses to "You haven't thrown a TD to a receiver since..." always crack me up. He's one cool cat. And has two running backs to rely on for big yardage. (Davis has more 100 yard games than Charles.). Staff doesn't have that luxury, for various reasons.

I think Staff's season has been more Smith than Favre, which is nice. Taking sacks, less forces deep.... (Part of that could be a Bad O-Line or no CJ, or actual maturity and growth, or having a QB coach, or what have you.)... less negatives in general.

Having a strong defense has definitely helped to move him from a gunslinger to somewhat of a game manager. But it's great that while he does manage games and isn't relied on heavily to "lead the team to victory", the best part of his game is still the late rally. Nice fall back when great defense and game management don't give you a late lead.

 

[themuzzer]

Let's not forget Kelce the TE Alex Smith is throwing to. Wish we had one of those.....We have 3 TEs when put together arn't matching Kelce's output.....I'm saying this without looking, but I'm sure I will hear about it if I'm wrong.

 

[tpaulus_2]

Stafford's completion percentage is also up 3% over last season.

 

[broncosmitty]

This is true. His teams win total is also up three.

Hopefully that number is 5, two and half weeks from now.

 

[Rollingthndr]

Few more yards than Smith, though. I'll take a 4,300 yard, 22 TD, 11 INT season out of Stafford. The TD numbers are far less than he's capable of, but that would (will) also represent a marked reduction in turnovers. Game managers also don't really get 4,000 yard seasons all that often. Stafford isn't putting up the production we've become accustomed to by means of gross output, but I'll argue that this may have been his second-best overall season as a pro (he was absurd in 2011). When the dust settles at the end of the season he'll still finish in the top ten in passing yards, so that kind of clashes with the game manager argument as well.

With the defense we have the numbers I posted above (Stafford's current averages projected out over two more games) are plenty enough production out of the QB position, imo...

I get the whole 4,000 yard thing but really... Is 4,000 yards a lot now a days?
Not blaming this all on Staff cause the OL is a joke and we received a massive downgrade in OC Lomardi.

Just saying that Smith has more TD's and his best option is pothead Dwayne Bowe. Who couldn't even hold CJ or Tate's jockstrap. I like the fact that the turnovers are down but still extremely dissapointed in Staff's 6th season. I think he is capable of so much more.

 

[tpaulus_2]

I get the whole 4,000 yard thing but really... Is 4,000 yards a lot now a days?
Not blaming this all on Staff cause the OL is a joke and we received a massive downgrade in OC Lomardi.

Just saying that Smith has more TD's and his best option is pothead Dwayne Bowe. Who couldn't even hold CJ or Tate's jockstrap. I like the fact that the turnovers are down but still extremely dissapointed in Staff's 6th season. I think he is capable of so much more.

Stafford is 8th in the league right now in passing yards, just 50 yards behind Aaron Rodgers. I think the 5,000 yard season, followed up by a 4,900 yard season spoiled us quite a bit.

The TDs are too low, though, that definitely needs to improve, but I'm very encouraged by the drop-off in INTs.

4,000 yards isn't the achievement it used to be, but if Stafford is still holding in the top ten in passing yards on a down year production-wise, I think that says a lot...

 

[gandydancer]

Stafford is 8th in the league right now in passing yards, just 50 yards behind Aaron Rodgers. I think the 5,000 yard season, followed up by a 4,900 yard season spoiled us quite a bit.

The TDs are too low, though, that definitely needs to improve, but I'm very encouraged by the drop-off in INTs.

4,000 yards isn't the achievement it used to be, but if Stafford is still holding in the top ten in passing yards on a down year production-wise, I think that says a lot...

Agree with all but that he needs more TD's. I think he is fine. The ultimate stat is wins and losses. The defense has keep them in many games. There has been no need to score 24-28 every week. The fact he has had one helluva aDecember is why his turnovers are down.

IMO another reason the dropoff in TD's is they have had spots were they only got FG's or attempts. Early in season and the AZ and NE games.

I do not care about Matt's stats and who is right or wrong. I worry more about the column on the left. The stat most here were wrong on.

 

[gandydancer]

I can't remember which thread it was, but several weeks ago we were debating if Stafford's turnovers were down this year or not. I pointed out that on a per-game basis, they were down. But I got slammed for that, because Stafford finished last season on a turnover binge, and I was assured that he would do the same again this year, so therefore his turnovers were not, in fact, down.

Well how's that argument now? I'm not even sure off the top of my head when Stafford's last INT was- New England, I'd guess? He's right on the cusp of a 2-1 TD to INT ratio, and has closed this season (so far) the polar opposite of last year.

And yet I was assured his turnovers aren't down this year...

I am guessing if guys were really worried about right and wrong so much... Prolly just go find threads on the OL being one the best ever and our top duo RB tandem. However it is not that big of a deal to some.

 

[Rollingthndr]

Stafford is 8th in the league right now in passing yards, just 50 yards behind Aaron Rodgers.

That is very disrespectful to put Stafford and Rodgers in the same sentence. There has been like three or four games where Rodgers has sat out 4th quarters because they were simply blowing teams out.

Stafford is more in the Flacco,Eli,Cutler category than the Rodgers,Luck,Manning or Brady category.

 

[lionscanWIN]

yeah so not concerned with matt not throwing as many TDs as usual. we were missing calvin for 4 really 5 games. there was a good offense left behind that could win just obviously not put up points.
as for the turnovers yep he has definitely improved plus the nice thing was when he was 'still on pace' the picks weren't near as bad usually on 3rd down around midfield aka a shortcut punt, shit happens.

plus i am a firm believer that we should all just take off at least 4 picks every year for all the QBs when really trying to analyze at the end of the year; to compensate for inevitable handful of times a WR lets the ball go through his hands, off his helmet, into the air, and lets the ball land fucking perfectly into the defenders arms while he is still staring there going "ughhhhh which way did it go?"

 

[Rollingthndr]

I do not care about Matt's stats and who is right or wrong. I worry more about the column on the left. The stat most here were wrong on.

I predicted going us going to the NFC championship game this year but was on the basis of our offense carrying the load and the defense making key stops. Not the defense playing like the Baltimore Ravens back in their heyday.

First time in my adult life I remember seeing a defense this good. Hopefully Fairley can come back if we manage to get a first round bye and give us some juice in the playoffs.

 

[Rollingthndr]

while he is still staring there going "ughhhhh which way did it go?"

Speaking of which, how awesome was it seeing Rodgers get stripped and have no clue whatsoever where the ball was?

 

[tpaulus_2]

When the statement was made, his turnovers weren't down. They were even. This year, he hasn't hit that slump.

I'll maintain that on a per-game basis his turnovers were down at the time. He's maintained that same per-game rate, so he'll finish with less this year.

Now looking game-to-game, then no, his turnovers weren't down at the time because he finished so poorly last year...