Spring Training Thoughts

[Illinest]

1. Gaby Sanchez - how nice. He's 8-18 (.444) with 3 HR so far. For what that's worth - not a whole heck of a lot - the most encouraging thing is that he seems to have a little bit of pop again.
He's not a power hitter but I think that he's a productive bat when he is able to drive the ball. The PG had a fluff piece on him and his formerly weak lower half that is supposed to be all crazy strong now! Well lets be optimistic shall we?

2. Tabata has his own thread - I know - I don't think he's worth his own thread. Still - some of the fans have been saying that he looks like he's putting more effort in. Well that's a start isn't it? Getting paid to play a sport you'd think the least a guy could do is try to do it well, wouldn't you?

3. Tony Sanchez - not done yet. I don't really have any anecdotes to relate - I just don't think we should count him out yet. Would I be surprised if he plays good defense and hits .750-ish in AAA this year? No.

4. Gerritt Cole can't arrive soon enough.

5. Taillon supposedly did okay against the Brewers today. 2 scoreless innings but then in the third he gave up 4 singles in a row. Considering how little experience he's had above A ball I think it's encouraging.

 

[magnumo]

My primary spring training thought is that I wish I was there. We have about a foot-and-a-half of snow where I live in Virginia..... and it's still snowing.

It's too early yet to draw firm conclusions, but my early thoughts are:

- Agree that Gaby Sanchez looks good.

- Encouraged by Tabata. The Pirates need a leadoff hitter. (Marte is NOT the right guy for that job.)

- Concerned about Martin's shoulder. Hopefully, he resumes catching shortly.

- Winning spring training games isn't important..... but I'd like to see more winning.

- Still like the pitching depth.....

 

[thecrow124]

My spring training thoughts are this.

Pitchers are throwing 90% fastballs. Their location isn't good and hitters are teeing off. I take nothing from any game played to this point nor any game played before March 25th.

I agree with mags though that 2+ feet of snow in my front yard makes me wish I was in Florida. Gotta love Wisconsin winters. Did not snow until February now we get about a foot a week with a few days of 35ºF scattered between to pack the snow down and harden it.

 

[sychmd]

My primary spring training thought is that I wish I was there. We have about a foot-and-a-half of snow where I live in Virginia..... and it's still snowing.

It's too early yet to draw firm conclusions, but my early thoughts are:

- Agree that Gaby Sanchez looks good.

- Encouraged by Tabata. The Pirates need a leadoff hitter. (Marte is NOT the right guy for that job.)

- Concerned about Martin's shoulder. Hopefully, he resumes catching shortly.

- Winning spring training games isn't important..... but I'd like to see more winning.

- Still like the pitching depth.....

would be nice if the reason sanchez dipped was his knee and know he has some pop and mechanics back. looks good so far. at least will be a platoon positive and bench bat. he also brings some late inning D at first.

agree marte is not the leadoff guy. he doesnt seem to be the ideal #2 guy with bat control either. but when he does get on base, he will steal and hit doubles and triples so needs to be ahead of the meat. so where do you put him assuming tabata can leadoff and walker/martin are the 2 slot?
is he 5,6,7? nice questions to have if some with potential really step into it and quit fighting it

1. tabata
2. walker
3. cutch
4. alvarez
5. jones/sanchez
6. marte
7. martin
8. barmes

winning spring training is important because winners like to win and try to win, always. if we lose because we are playing AA players, that is fine, but if we are playing real players, we need to win. i believe this mentality as well as the resting of our players too much into the last 7 days of ST cost us the terrible first 45 days of last season before everybody got into a groove. they need to pay daily for the last 2 weeks of ST at least. the fringe people are fringe and can sort it out in the minors. those without options and are strong possibilities, mix them in. but we need a strong start.

also, not winning means people who need to be doing something, improving something, building confidence/rhythm/consistency in an area, or focusing and finishing well arent doing that. hard for young guys to turn it on and off.

you get great by practicing being great. you try to be great in all you do. you cant just flip a switch. that is a rare bird.

pitching depth is awesome.
karstens and morton progressing.
excited to see if liriano will be ready or how much he needs to get back- 1 month or 3-4.

martin is the only bad luck so far this spring if karstens gets back to be long reliever for opening day.

 

[element1286]

I've been leafing through the zips projections, and I've noticed some interesting things.

1. Starling Marte's top three similar batters at the same age are Adam Jones, Matt Kemp, and Marquis Grissom. Fairly high praise, I'd take him being the worst of that bunch.

2. The catcher projections show McKenry dropping off considerably (227/297/365). Also, shows Tony Sanchez with a similar projection to Mckenry's, but Mckenry with a better chance of hitting his projection. Also, Charlie Cutler, whom I've never heard of, but played at AA last year, had the second best projection behind Martin among the catchers.

3. Alex Presley has the third best projection for OF's on the team behind Cutch and Marte (I'm not including Jones). Tabata, Sands, and Snider are relatively close to Presley, but all have LESS upside based on the projections.

4. Zips projects there is about a 50% chance that Gaby Sanchez is a league average (or better) hitter next year, league average being around a .720 OPS. That being said, it projects that Garrett Jones has a 60% chance of being a league average (or better) hitter next year. Also, Garrett Jones and Adam Laroche have a near identical projections for next year.

5. I'm worried about the bench, guys who project to be likely bench players are terrible hitters: Mercer, Harrison, McKenry, and Inge are all projected for a 650ish OPS.

 

[sychmd]

I've been leafing through the zips projections, and I've noticed some interesting things.

4. Zips projects there is about a 50% chance that Gaby Sanchez is a league average (or better) hitter next year, league average being around a .720 OPS. That being said, it projects that Garrett Jones has a 60% chance of being a league average (or better) hitter next year. Also, Garrett Jones and Adam Laroche have a near identical projections for next year.

5. I'm worried about the bench, guys who project to be likely bench players are terrible hitters: Mercer, Harrison, McKenry, and Inge are all projected for a 650ish OPS.

if league average is 720, we can't really expect our bench to be at league average. having 650 doesnt bother me.
i want them to be energetic, have a high BB IQ, bring a positive attitude, have a good glove, and be able to handle situational playing (bunting, taking pitches, hit/run, advancing a runner, stealing a base, scoring on a sac fly, etc). if mercer can run(great steal %) then PR him more in later innings when we need that run.

if we can get a bench with league ave OPS - Presly/Tabata, sanchez, Inge(to produce runs and maybe not OPS, and McK to be close to last year, and a SS who can give us solid D and situational play, i would be thrilled.

you figure we have to have some duds to balance out the cutch, alvarez, walker, jones, marte, martin above ave OPS.
i assume they dont include pitchers in figuring league OPS.

 

[element1286]

I hear you, sychmd, and if they were better they would probably be starters here or somewhere else, but are the guys the Pirates have vying for bench spots really the type who do that little stuff well? I'm not so sure.

 

[sychmd]

i agree, i doubt they can hit situationally. i think darnaud can run.

the problem is ... i know hurdle doesnt know how to use situational skills even if they had it. he seems to be a good players coach, but he is definitely not a tactician. should be an american league manager.

 

[element1286]

i agree, i doubt they can hit situationally. i think darnaud can run.

the problem is ... i know hurdle doesnt know how to use situational skills even if they had it. he seems to be a good players coach, but he is definitely not a tactician. should be an american league manager.

Definitely agree with you about Hurdle. If he had a great platoon guy like Matt Stairs, or a great situational player like Tony Campana, I don't think he would use them correctly. And I'd hate to see what he did if he had a guy like Ben Zobrist.

 

[stillmatic32]

 

[thedddd]

Anyone see Coles performance againt the Orioles?

I heard it wasn't bad and he pitch effectively even retiring the first seven he faced.

On a side note Melancon is pitching well, I hope with him and Grilli the end of the games will be safe.

 

[magnumo]

Glad to see the Pirates win 3 games over the past couple of days. Hey..... I know that Spring Training W-L records don't mean a thing..... but 7-10 FEELS a whole lot better than 4-10.

These guys gotta believe they can win games, and in my opinion, the best way to build that belief is.....

.....to win games!

 

[element1286]

Saw Jeff Locke pitched today, and got bombed, starting to think he isn't anything more than a #6. Watching him pitch I am not comfortable he can major league hitters out, the stuff is below average, and doesn't seem to have even the ability of Maholm/Duke.

But, Phil Irwin wents nuts and struck out 7 in 3.2 innings.

 

[sychmd]

Glad to see the Pirates win 3 games over the past couple of days. Hey..... I know that Spring Training W-L records don't mean a thing..... but 7-10 FEELS a whole lot better than 4-10.

These guys gotta believe they can win games, and in my opinion, the best way to build that belief is.....

.....to win games!

to be good, you have to practice being good. you just dont turn it on when you want. drilling it into muscle memory by doing it in all the little areas of the game leads to big things.

 

[Illinest]

I am not feeling good about the rotation at all. Burnett has been bad more than he's been good in the last 5 years, mcdonald is inconsistent and rodriguez is old.
But those are the good starters. Locke and mcpherson have failed to impress, karstens is gimpy, liriano and sanchez are walk machines and morton who might be the best of the group still has a lot of rehab to do.

I think taillon and cole have made a pretty objective case that they're more ready to succeed than any of the other options. Yeah they're young and raw but i know i would feel more comfortable seeing those two in the rotation than any of the other guys. If you want to argue smart management of finances i'll accept it but i don't want to hear anyone suggesting that the team is better if we keep them in the minors.

 

[element1286]

to be good, you have to practice being good. you just dont turn it on when you want. drilling it into muscle memory by doing it in all the little areas of the game leads to big things.

There is little to no correlation between spring winning % and season winning %. If you want to go data-mining, you mind find some criteria that shows Spring wining % correlates to Regular season winning % in certain situations, but there will be infinitely many more scenarios in which you didn't data-mine that are equally as likely, and could provide the opposite conclusion.

Spring Training Records Have No Correlation With The Regular Season - Business Insider

 

[element1286]

Pirates host Blue Jays, cut 12 - Bucs Dugout

First round of cuts, a few notables, including Taillon. Surprised Sands/Robinson were cut so early though.

 

[magnumo]

Pirates host Blue Jays, cut 12 - Bucs Dugout

First round of cuts, a few notables, including Taillon. Surprised Sands/Robinson were cut so early though.

I gotta feeling that the apparent resurgence of Tabata may have something to do with the early exit of Robinson and Sands. Pie likely will be cut pretty soon for the same reason. At any rate, it looks like Robinson, Sands, and Ford blew whatever chances they had.

- Robinson was 4 for 20 (.200).

- Sands was 4 for 22 (.182).

- Ford was 4 for 22 (.182).

What's kinda scary is that Hawpe is 4 for 24 (.167), and he's still in camp. Until he's cut, I will continue to fear that his past connection with Hurdle and his uniform number (2) indicate that he will be given more chances to make the team than he deserves.

It's pretty clear that Matt Hague's (8 for 22, .364) window of opportunity has passed and Anderson Hernandez (5 for 12, .417) wasn't given much of an opportunity to make the team.

On the pitching side, none of Black, Welker, Strickland, Pimentel, Cordier, or Taillon seemed to have even a slight chance to make the team..... and they needed to get some of the pitchers out of there anyway, since there aren't enough innings to go around. In Taillon's case, I'm guessing there's a special need to GET him innings.

I'm a little bit surprised that Gomez and Oliver remain in camp. I don't keep up with the "options left" stuff as much as I should. Perhaps such roster considerations and strategies (e.g., trying to sneak players through waivers) are part of the reason they're still around.

 

[steelparrot]

Pirates Prospects » Pittsburgh Pirates 2013 40-Man Payroll Projection

Easy place to find options left for all players on 40-man roster.


Tabata, Morris and Snyder are all out of options. I think all 3 deserve a 25-man roster spot, but no options left makes them locks to come north.

Its not fair to Presley, but its an easy choice.

 

[magnumo]

Pirates Prospects » Pittsburgh Pirates 2013 40-Man Payroll Projection

Easy place to find options left for all players on 40-man roster.


Tabata, Morris and Snyder are all out of options. I think all 3 deserve a 25-man roster spot, but no options left makes them locks to come north.

Its not fair to Presley, but its an easy choice.

Thanks much for that reference, parrot. I like the way Tim has arranged that information..... very efficient and easy to understand.

I think you're right about Tabata, Snider, and Morris. Since Leroux is also out of options, he may have an inside track on a bullpen spot, as well. At any rate, he seems to have a live arm and I'd hate to lose him.

Perhaps Jeanmar Gomez being out of options is the reason he's still in camp. He's done some decent work in the majors as a starter in the past, but he clearly has looked bad this spring. Perhaps they'll try to sneak him through waivers and stash him at Indianapolis.

Maybe they're keeping Oliver a little longer to let the major league staff work with him. He seems to have a live arm, and I've read in several places that his development may have been impaired because he was rushed to the majors. Nevertheless, that remaining option ensures that Oliver won't make the 25-man roster. There are just too many other decent pitchers in camp.

One final note..... regardless of what the 25-man roster looks like initially, it appears there will be some difficult choices as Liriano, Morton, and Contreras emerge from the DL. (I'm assuming that the team is right about Contreras having something left.) Perhaps the Pirates will be in a position to make a trade or two to strengthen the team elsewhere.