Spring Training 2012

[MarcoPolo]

I appreciate the effort, but you should realize there is no need here to justify your opinions with tons of background information. We've all got a pretty good foundation in most aspects of this game, as well as the history of various Giants players/prospects.

I didn't mean to imply that the general poster here is an idiot, my apologies if that was the take on my post. I prefer to explain in great detail why I think the way I do, including the background. I find that avoids misunderstandings, or a lot of back-and-forth, especially on a board that I am new to.

Even so, I left a big ???? in my post. When I said 'AA is generally the real "make it or break it" level', the point that I was trying to make was that AA is the level when many, many guys who were successful in the lower levels stall or fail. I didn't mean that it was the perfect indicator of success in the majors. AA seams to be the "breaking point" for a large number of previously very successful players (both hitters and pitchers). I've just come to the opinion that I won't get too excited about a guy that has success in 'A'-ball - I'll wait to see what he'll do in a higher level. There have been exceptions. I was pretty excited watching Gary Brown in SJ this year - he had a fantastic year and it was his first full pro year. Watching Cain pitch in SJ was pretty exciting too, especially the last month or so he was there. Posey and Crawford also left very warm memories and hopes that they would succeed (both in their first full pro seasons, just like Brown). But over the years, I've seen so many "red hot" prospects fail after moving up to AA that I don't get excited by a great performance in A-ball.

Concerning the "low sample size" of Hector's stint in Fresno. Let me rephrase my objection as "he hasn't proved he can hit a higher level of pitching" rather than calling his performance a fail. Until he proves he CAN hit better pitching, I don't think that he has *earned* a spot in the active roster.

 

[tzill]

Burres confirming his AAAness....

 

[tzill]

Kown also showing his AAAness....

 

[the_broom]

Totally awesome!

Pablo Sandoval's Bubblegum Chewing Bobblehead | ThePostGame

Got to find me one of these!

 

[the_broom]

His spring stats are an even smaller sample size (and he's hitting against a lot of minor league pitching).

He's young, very young, and he hasn't hit well above A-ball. There's no problem with him having another short stint in the majors if he's going to play several days a week, but I'd rather look towards the future and have him learn in the minors the stuff that he needs to be a success in the majors. AA is generally the real "make it or break it" level in the minors, and he skipped that level. It's not surprising that he didn't hit well going from San Jose to Fresno - the pitching is a heck of a lot better in AAA. He also needs to improve his defense, and Steve Decker is just the guy to make sure he does learn it. There aren't that many guys that rocket from 'A'-ball to AAA and then the majors and are a success, and those that do so are generally highly touted top-10 draft picks who were expected to have that success. We've been spoiled by Timmy and Buster, who did exactly that (but they were expected to basically do that when they were drafted). And they both killed in AAA, for the short time that they were there, unlike Hector.

I'm not sure that he'll hit well in the majors, as he hasn't seen much in the way of good breaking pitches (or was totally fooled by the ones he saw in Fresno last year). Again, I'm thinking more about his future career than the extra 5 hits he might get over Stewart in the 3 weeks he'll be in the majors. I certainly don't want to see him in the majors all year, if it means he won't improve defensively. I'd rather that he learn how to hit decent pitching when he is NOT racking up major league service time, and getting closer to arbitration and FA. I'd rather that he do that learning in the minors, so that he'll be a better player in the future and be a good player able to stay with the Giants longer. On other boards, this is when everybody would expect me to refer to Matt Williams. so I will . He was promoted way too early and his first 3 (partial) seasons in the majors were where he learned about curveballs and change-ups. His output those 3 years was far, far below what he put up the rest of his career, barely hitting .200 (and his first season, not even that). It's a shame he didn't learn that in the minors and not waste all that service time.

My last reason is something that comes up pretty much every year with Giants' prospects : the "jimmy jack" aspect. You hear the complaints about a guy getting called up, being sent down, called up again (and hardly playing), etc. That is exactly what I'd like to avoid with this kid; it could mess up his confidence. He needs to concentrate on improving, and the fastest and best way for that is to play every day. And I'd rather have a better player for late 2012 or 2013 instead of a mediocre one now.

I honestly don't think that he'll hit much better than the catcher he would replace, and for the little actual playing time that he would see he shouldn't make much of a difference, unless he actually hits like Buster. The backup catcher is not the guy that is going to make or break this team's chances to hit the post season. He's not even 2nd or 3rd or even 5th or 9th on things to worry about which could influence a post-season run.

Terrific post, Marco...and you have convinced me. Repped...

 

[gp956]

I didn't mean to imply that the general poster here is an idiot, my apologies if that was the take on my post. I prefer to explain in great detail why I think the way I do, including the background. I find that avoids misunderstandings, or a lot of back-and-forth, especially on a board that I am new to.

Even so, I left a big ???? in my post. When I said 'AA is generally the real "make it or break it" level', the point that I was trying to make was that AA is the level when many, many guys who were successful in the lower levels stall or fail. I didn't mean that it was the perfect indicator of success in the majors. AA seams to be the "breaking point" for a large number of previously very successful players (both hitters and pitchers). I've just come to the opinion that I won't get too excited about a guy that has success in 'A'-ball - I'll wait to see what he'll do in a higher level. There have been exceptions. I was pretty excited watching Gary Brown in SJ this year - he had a fantastic year and it was his first full pro year. Watching Cain pitch in SJ was pretty exciting too, especially the last month or so he was there. Posey and Crawford also left very warm memories and hopes that they would succeed (both in their first full pro seasons, just like Brown). But over the years, I've seen so many "red hot" prospects fail after moving up to AA that I don't get excited by a great performance in A-ball.

Concerning the "low sample size" of Hector's stint in Fresno. Let me rephrase my objection as "he hasn't proved he can hit a higher level of pitching" rather than calling his performance a fail. Until he proves he CAN hit better pitching, I don't think that he has *earned* a spot in the active roster.

I didn't take it like that. I just wanted to save you some typing the next time around. I think most of us here know exactly where you're coming from, and would make some of the same general arguments to justify the opinion, i.e. if we shared it (as a few clearly do). Though, it should be noted, that no one made a case for Chez3 based on his time in San Jose.

 

[gp956]

I hope Zito was studying Moyer closely.

 

[MarcoPolo]

Though, it should be noted, that no one made a case for Chez3 based on his time in San Jose.

Well, then, what is the case for having him be on the active roster? "He probably won't suck more than the two bozos we already have lined up" isn't much of a serious argument.

"He hit well in winter ball"? Look up Edgardo Alfonzo's stats in winter ball while he was with the Giants. A monster, he was.

"He is killing minor league pitching in spring training"? Personally, I think ST stats are bullshit. (Again, see Edgardo Alfonzo's spectacular spring stats while he was with the Giants.) And I can list a large number of *amazing* spring performances for the Giants who didn't do diddly squat for the team during the season (starting with Huff last year).

Although nobody has *mentioned* his amazing 2011 in San Jose, what are people looking at to proclaim him the logical choice as backup catcher? I'm curious. I see a youngster who had a great 3 months in the lower minors. If I take off my rose-colored glasses, I see a youngster who hasn't done much of anything higher than A-ball.

 

[gp956]

Alex Pavlovic adds some fuel: "The more I watch Hector Sanchez behind the plate, the more I’m impressed."

 

[gp956]

Well, then, what is the case for having him be on the active roster? "He probably won't suck more than the two bozos we already have lined up" isn't much of a serious argument.

"He hit well in winter ball"? Look up Edgardo Alfonzo's stats in winter ball while he was with the Giants. A monster, he was.

"He is killing minor league pitching in spring training"? Personally, I think ST stats are bullshit. (Again, see Edgardo Alfonzo's spectacular spring stats while he was with the Giants.) And I can list a large number of *amazing* spring performances for the Giants who didn't do diddly squat for the team during the season (starting with Huff last year).

Although nobody has *mentioned* his amazing 2011 in San Jose, what are people looking at to proclaim him the logical choice as backup catcher? I'm curious. I see a youngster who had a great 3 months in the lower minors. If I take off my rose-colored glasses, I see a youngster who hasn't done much of anything higher than A-ball.

Your arguments have been a somewhat fallacious mix of inductive and deductive logic buoyed by confirmation bias. Stripped of all that it distills to the fact that you believe Chez3 is too young for the major leagues. There's nothing wrong with believing that - it's probably the more common feeling expressed this spring. But don't fool yourself into thinking that your "argument" reflects anything more than an error prone reasoning process trying to justify it's own internal logic as sound. The latter condition seems to be a feature of humans, i.e. we all do it. I'd think, though, that at some point along the path to dismissing every positive thing Chez3 has done in professional baseball, you'd realize you're engaging in blatant confirmation bias. Take a breath now.

I'm a bottom up type of observer for the most part. To make a judgment call on the quality of a player I'm looking at the pitch to pitch adjustments, the balance in the swing, and, when the ball is put into play, the momentum imparted to it. I don't reason from small sample size results when I have direct observation available to me. But besides my bottom up derived take on Chez3 vis-a-vis Stew/Whitey, I like the fact that he has been young for nearly all levels of professional baseball at which he has competed - and he has yet to fail at any of them.

As an aside, try to not anticipate, and then close on, the argument you imagine others might take. It's annoying. You might want to think of this forum as a place to kick back on the couch with your buddies with a beer in hand to watch and talk about the game. Let's not turn this room into a "debate club" at the expense of entertainment.

 

[CameronFrye]

Is anyone concerned about Pablo Sandoval? Dude has almost as many strikeouts as hits and most of his hits are not the "I hit the ball real hard, it just got caught" variety. Are we looking at an Aubrey Huff-esque career where he only rises to the occasion every other year?

 

[gp956]

Is anyone concerned about Pablo Sandoval? Dude has almost as many strikeouts as hits and most of his hits are not the "I hit the ball real hard, it just got caught" variety. Are we looking at an Aubrey Huff-esque career where he only rises to the occasion every other year?

I'm concerned. His fielding seems lazy, as well. He had Lazik surgery yet again (which he had just prior to 2010), which is always a red flag for me. This latest procedure was a touch up on the 2010 surgery, from what I understand.

The question marks about this team are really piling up, for me.

 

[calsnowskier]

I'm concerned. His fielding seems lazy, as well. He had Lazik surgery yet again (which he had just prior to 2010), which is always a red flag for me. This latest procedure was a touch up on the 2010 surgery, from what I understand.

The question marks about this team are really piling up, for me.

This is about where I stand right now.

Franchez: Will he EVER play again? Do we have DeRosa again?
Huff: Will he Yo-Yo again, or is he done?
Panda: Is he a legit stud, or a Huff+?
Wilson: Is his arm shot, or will he return?
Posey: Will he be able to play effective catcher 4+ times a week?
Cain: Will He resign?
Timmeh: Will he resign?
Belt: Is he AAAA or MLB?
Melky: Was last year a fluke, or has he arrived? If he has arrived, will he resign after the season?
Pagan: Was last year the fluke, or was '10? If last year was the fluke, will he resign?
Brown: Will he do ANYTHING in Richmond, or was his '11 just a San Jose aberration?
Zito: Will he provide a passable #5?
Vogelsong: Will he somewhat repeat '11, or will he regress and become a wasted roster-spot?
Crawford: Will he hit enough to keep his job, or will the FO have to trade for another Orlando Cabrera?

Posey, Wilson and Franchez are REALLY starting to concern me. I think how they go, so the Giants go.

 

[gp956]

This is about where I stand right now.

Franchez: Will he EVER play again? Do we have DeRosa again?
Huff: Will he Yo-Yo again, or is he done?
Panda: Is he a legit stud, or a Huff+?
Wilson: Is his arm shot, or will he return?
Posey: Will he be able to play effective catcher 4+ times a week?
Cain: Will He resign?
Timmeh: Will he resign?
Belt: Is he AAAA or MLB?
Melky: Was last year a fluke, or has he arrived? If he has arrived, will he resign after the season?
Pagan: Was last year the fluke, or was '10? If last year was the fluke, will he resign?
Brown: Will he do ANYTHING in Richmond, or was his '11 just a San Jose aberration?
Zito: Will he provide a passable #5?
Vogelsong: Will he somewhat repeat '11, or will he regress and become a wasted roster-spot?
Crawford: Will he hit enough to keep his job, or will the FO have to trade for another Orlando Cabrera?

Posey, Wilson and Franchez are REALLY starting to concern me. I think how they go, so the Giants go.

Yep. This is going to an interesting season. This could get ugly quickly, or......not. I can't remember the last time it was this difficult to manage expectations.

 

[msgkings322]

I'm concerned. His fielding seems lazy, as well. He had Lazik surgery yet again (which he had just prior to 2010), which is always a red flag for me. This latest procedure was a touch up on the 2010 surgery, from what I understand.

The question marks about this team are really piling up, for me.

We ain't the Yankees or Phillies this year for sure (locks for playoffs). But we had plenty of concerns going into 2010, and far fewer ones going into 2011.

We have what could be a 98 win team, a 92 win team, or an 85 win team. I'm saving my Depends for Memorial Day, by then we'll know what's up.


Also, what the hell is this? :target:

 

[filosofy29]

We ain't the Yankees or Phillies this year for sure (locks for playoffs). But we had plenty of concerns going into 2010, and far fewer ones going into 2011.

We have what could be a 98 win team, a 92 win team, or an 85 win team. I'm saving my Depends for Memorial Day, by then we'll know what's up.


Also, what the hell is this? :target:

I'm not even sure if the Phils qualify as locks anymore. Supposedly Utley's knees are still all fecked up (Utley returns to camp, status still uncertain) and Howard is still out as well (2012 spring training -- Ryan Howard of Philadelphia Phillies works out without protective boot - ESPN). Factor in Rollins being a year older and with more pressure to perform....that offense is looking very 2011 Giants-esque. Rollins, Victorino and Pence are the only given studs (and Rollins is slowing down). Dom Brown, Carlos Ruiz and Ty Wigginton may have good seasons.....

Phillies pitching is still lights out, but who knows how Vance Worley's sophomore season goes either.

I see just as many if not more ?'s with the Phils as I do with the Giants. They got old quick.

 

[MarcoPolo]

Your arguments have been a somewhat fallacious mix of inductive and deductive logic buoyed by confirmation bias. Stripped of all that it distills to the fact that you believe Chez3 is too young for the major leagues. There's nothing wrong with believing that - it's probably the more common feeling expressed this spring. But don't fool yourself into thinking that your "argument" reflects anything more than an error prone reasoning process trying to justify it's own internal logic as sound. The latter condition seems to be a feature of humans, i.e. we all do it. I'd think, though, that at some point along the path to dismissing every positive thing Chez3 has done in professional baseball, you'd realize you're engaging in blatant confirmation bias. Take a breath now.

I'm a bottom up type of observer for the most part. To make a judgment call on the quality of a player I'm looking at the pitch to pitch adjustments, the balance in the swing, and, when the ball is put into play, the momentum imparted to it. I don't reason from small sample size results when I have direct observation available to me. But besides my bottom up derived take on Chez3 vis-a-vis Stew/Whitey, I like the fact that he has been young for nearly all levels of professional baseball at which he has competed - and he has yet to fail at any of them.

Your post basically breaks down to "Marco, you believe what you believe" and then you say the same thing - you believe what you believe. OK, I can understand that. It also appears that you have seen a lot more of Hector than I have, I've only seen him play in about 10 games, 2 on TV and about 8 in SJ.

I hate to see prospects rushed. Personally, I think a jump to the majors at this point is rushing him. Once he has success above A-ball, I think he'd be ready for "the next level". I just keep thinking of Guillermo Rodriguez - he had plenty of success in San Jose, but never managed to put it together above A-ball. So I just don't get excited about prospects in the lower levels until they have proved something in AA (and preferably AAA).

 

[MarcoPolo]

Not a GREAT throw by Posey to first, but Belt should have been able to handle it.

 

[MarcoPolo]

Great save by Belt on the attempted DP in the top of the 4th - could have been an extra base.

 

[coffeeman]

Buster Posey passes test behind the plate | MLB.com: News

Manager Bruce Bochy's first concern when Posey came into the dugout was whether Moreland was safe or not. A catcher himself, Bochy shared Posey's perspective that "It's baseball" and "There's going to be plays at the plate and contact."