So I found out who the top 4 picks are and who will be there for me

[SmokingMonkey]

@HaroldSeattle is in a lot more dynasty leagues than me, so he can probably give a better overall perspective, but to me the biggest difference between elite running backs and elite wide receivers is that it's always easier to trade for wide receivers than it it running backs. Getting somebody to trade one of the elite running backs is damn near impossible so I'd always like to have one of them if you get the chance.

i think they call this Supply vs Demand in economics

as we've looked at countless times, the drop off from the top WRs to the lower tiers just isn't as sharp as it is for RBs

any half ppr or full ppr formats, give me all the WR2s and WR3s over the fringe RBs please

 

[SmokingMonkey]

barkley reminds me a bit of CJ2k......


-1, 1, 3, 2, 25.

3, 12 -2, 1, 4, 1, 1, 3, 37

14 carries 90 yards

62 yards on 2 carries, and 75 of the 90 on 3........

threat everytime he touches the ball.......but alot of duds.

full disclosure. I need to review barkleys numbers and may be totally wrong about that.

just did a quick tally, 31 rushes of 10yds or more, 32 rushes that produced negative results rookie year

obviously the yardage from the big rushes far outweighs the negative yardage, but it is still an interesting fact that he had so many negative yard plays

2nd season: similar splits, 27 over 10yds, 29 negative

 

[TREFF]

didn't Barry Sanders have a metric shit ton of negative runs??

 

[Shanemansj13]

Don't look back

 

[SteelersPride]

didn't Barry Sanders have a metric shit ton of negative runs??

yup.........and not to deny those guys are great.....

I just always found it tough as a fan, to see alot of drives killed with the negative or minuscule yardage....

 

[averagejoe]

didn't Barry Sanders have a metric shit ton of negative runs??

yup.........and not to deny those guys are great.....

I just always found it tough as a fan, to see alot of drives killed with the negative or minuscule yardage....

In the grand scheme of things, negative yards really isn't something to focus on.
Just kind of threw that out there since it was the subject of an article not long ago.

Here's part of the chart from the 2018 season:

 

[TREFF]

In the grand scheme of things, negative yards really isn't something to focus on.
Just kind of threw that out there since it was the subject of an article not long ago.

Here's part of the chart from the 2018 season:

View attachment 243304

Royce Freeman gettin' fisted!!!

 

[SteelersPride]

In the grand scheme of things, negative yards really isn't something to focus on.
Just kind of threw that out there since it was the subject of an article not long ago.

Here's part of the chart from the 2018 season:

View attachment 243304

Well it may just be me..... but that's not an enticing list of running backs when looking at the 2018 season. A few good ones but what 75-80% not....

 

[ehb5]

IDK
I mentioned Cohen was second in the negative yards category... Its tough enough for some offenses to gain positive yards. But when its 2nd-and-6 and your running back loses 4 yards making it 3rd-and 10... that cant help a poor offense.

To me the dancing is only worth it if it helps gain positive yards. Tom Brady doesnt take a lot of sacks because it loses yards. Would he be considered "on another level" if he did and his offense was average?

But the dancing does help pickup yards in many cases. It's a trade off sure, but in Barkley's case I think it's easily worth it.

The QB point is actually interesting because there are different QB styles. Basically no QB is elite at y/att, sack rate, and INT rate. You kind of have to pick one. Guys like Rodgers, Wilson, and Watson take lots of sacks but you live with it because they make up for it with big plays and y/att. Somebody like Brady takes fewer sacks but is more conservative. I don't think there's necessarily one right way - no matter how you play, you're trading off either upside or safety.

 

[averagejoe]

Well it may just be me..... but that's not an enticing list of running backs when looking at the 2018 season. A few good ones but what 75-80% not....

The surprising thing to me in that data is that it seems to be universally "accepted" (and even expected) that a back will gain zero or less yards every 4 or 5 carries.

 

[TREFF]

The surprising thing to me in that data is that it seems to be universally "accepted" (and even expected) that a back will gain zero or less yards every 4 or 5 carries.

Flip it to QB's...70% completion percentage is great right? Only 3 reached it last year, two of which just barely. That means 30% of the time they're getting zero yds too, and none of those RB's had a 30% or higher negative rate..but that's considered to be amazing.


I think about 25-30% of the time, you just aren't gonna win, and that's just what it is

 

[SteelersPride]

The surprising thing to me in that data is that it seems to be universally "accepted" (and even expected) that a back will gain zero or less yards every 4 or 5 carries.

Flip it to QB's...70% completion percentage is great right? Only 3 reached it last year, two of which just barely. That means 30% of the time they're getting zero yds too, and none of those RB's had a 30% or higher negative rate..but that's considered to be amazing.


I think about 25-30% of the time, you just aren't gonna win, and that's just what it is

I agree whole heartedly with both post here!

 

[averagejoe]

Hopkins also seems to drop a decent amount of passes.

Say what? 2 drops on 163 targets in 18, 4 drops on 150 in '19...dude has perhaps the lowest drop rate of any WR's in this generation.

2019 NFL Advanced Receiving | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Hopkins is listed with 4 drops, ranking him 57th among all skill player (WR-RB-TE) drops. Less than 3% of his passes (2.7).

 

[knowyourenemy]

2019 NFL Advanced Receiving | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Hopkins is listed with 4 drops, ranking him 57th among all skill player (WR-RB-TE) drops. Less than 3% of his passes (2.7).

Drops is a bullshit stat then. He dropped more than 4 passes.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Drops is a bullshit stat then. He dropped more than 4 passes.

Doesn’t matter. His hands are dependable, which is the point.

 

[knowyourenemy]

Doesn’t matter. His hands are dependable, which is the point.

Part of my original comment was that he drops “a decent number of passes.” I don’t like him as the 5th pick for a few other reasons. I could be wrong but there is definitely some risk there.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Part of my original comment was that he drops “a decent number of passes.” I don’t like him as the 5th pick for a few other reasons. I could be wrong but there is definitely some risk there.

I’ll give you this , changing teams doesn’t always work out for stud WRs. Odell for example.

 

[DALLAScornhusker]

In the grand scheme of things, negative yards really isn't something to focus on.
Just kind of threw that out there since it was the subject of an article not long ago.

Here's part of the chart from the 2018 season:

View attachment 243304

Good read Joe. I imagined David Johnson would have been rather high on that list from 2018. Lot of people (various forums) citing his negative or uninspiring play both that year and in 2019. 2018 was a high volume year where he took a high % of carries (maybe lead the league) between the tackles for a low ypc.

 

[averagejoe]

One site said that "drops" are not an official NFL stat. The irony is that this site has some various obscure stats.

I get it. What constitutes an official drop can be subjective.

If he is defended closely, does the non-catch get credited to the DB? Or is it a drop. If a QB under pressure launches an uncatchable pass and the receiver somehow "touches" the uncatchable pass, would that be a drop? If a pass is thrown in his vicinity but behind him, is that a "drop"?

 

[tlance]

didn't Barry Sanders have a metric shit ton of negative runs??

Yes he did.

And this is why, despite the fact that Barry was more spectacular and definitely the RB that you had to watch, Emmitt was the better player. Consistent chunk yards is more valuable to the team and it makes it easier to sustain drives when you are playing from 3rd and 4 instead of 3rd and 12.