Rumour - it's the Ostrich

[Flyingiguana]

Usually the time to evaluate for the future is when your team is struggling and youre trying to find answers.

I agree Kaep looked very prepared, and no one expected him to look this good.

this isn't about the future. if kap is ready now u go with him. brady got his break when bledsoe went down.

 

[SFAnthem]

this isn't about the future. if kap is ready now u go with him. brady got his break when bledsoe went down.

I never said it was about the future. I'm all about the now.

Many people like to point out Brady vs Bledsoe but its a totally different comparison. Bledsoe's injury occurred at the beginning of the year and the Patrioits had no choice but to start Brady and go with him.

The funny thing is, in 2001, Brady was the Alex-like QB and Bledsoe was the dynamic QB.

 

[Flyingiguana]

I never said it was about the future. I'm all about the now.

Many people like to point out Brady vs Bledsoe but its a totally different comparison. Bledsoe's injury occurred at the beginning of the year and the Patrioits had no choice but to start Brady and go with him.

The funny thing is, in 2001, Brady was the Alex-like QB and Bledsoe was the dynamic QB.

the poise, confidence and decision making kap showed is huge. nm the numbers or the fact that we caught the bears with their pants down. the reason why the bears were caught off-guard was because of the 3 points above. no point rushing smith back into action.

 

[MHSL82]

Source: Alex Smith Medically Cleared

 

[Kinzu]

Ok this week is starting to look a lot like last week now. The media is putting it out there early that Kaep is getting the reps and will start. The coaches are saying the reps are split and no decision has been made. Heck ESPN is reporting Alex has been cleared, but Roman said he might be cleared on Friday.

Either the media is trying to jump the gun to be the first to report, or the 49ers are just masters at manipulating the media. Maybe the want the Saints to think Kaep is starting?

 

[Crimsoncrew]

I'm very surprised by this. It was pretty clear I guess from Harbaugh's comments the past year or so that he preferred Kaepernick, I just didn't think he''d throw Smith under the bus this quickly.

How is he throwing Alex under the bus? He's been nothing but supportive of Alex. He just thinks Kaepernick may be the longterm answer and is picking him to play. That's not throwing a player under the bus.

Is it hard to be wrong about everything?

 

[deep9er]

Source: Alex Smith Medically Cleared

for this next game, still think they should start Alex Smith and give Kap reps. that said, if they start Kap then fine, he did earn another look.

this part of the article caught my attention:

Harbaugh said Wednesday the QB for the NFC West-leading Niners (7-2-1) could change week to week, and even during the course of a game.

IF this means changing starters week to week, then i'm not for it. choose one and let the entire unit keep gelling.

i'm ok with "during the course of the game", as long as it isn't flop flopping. if Kap struggles, then put Alex in. if Alex is the starter, then give Kap series like what they've been doing earlier.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

I'm all for Kaepernick starting. I supported Smith through all those dark years, and was thrilled to see him coming along last year. But he's limited. His arm strength is limited. He can make most of the throws, but really only when circumstances are ideal. He rarely makes throws in a crowded pocket, or off his back foot before taking a hit. And, of course, he rarely throws guys open unless we're pressing late in the game.

And Smith's limitations go beyond the physical. His pocket presence is poor, and his ability to sidestep pressure is about as bad as I've seen by a longterm NFL starter. As soon as the pocket collapses, he either goes down or he flees the pocket entirely. That's part of what was so refreshing about Kap's TD to Crabtree: he felt pressure, sidestepped it, moved up in the pocket, and continued to look downfield and delivered a strike. Smith almost never does that. Smith's vision is also mediocre at best.

Now, I can't say with conviction that Kap will be better at those intangible aspects of the game right now, but I'd be surprised if he's much worse. And combined with the superior physical tools, it makes this a pretty easy choice IMO.

Finally, the timing for this is good. If Kap struggles, we can go back to Smith and say that he just wasn't 100% yet and we didn't want to trot him out there without a full week of practice. That said, starting in NO is a great experience for Kap. It's a hostile environment, and a mentally challenging D. But it's also a D we'll be able to run on effectively, taking some of the pressure off him. We've got games against NO and NE that we're probably 50-50 to win regardless of who is starting at QB. So let's see what Kap can do and develop him a bit so that, if he does have some success, he's prepared for the playoffs. Anyway, my two cents. Or buck-fifty, considering the length of this post...

 

[Crimsoncrew]

for this next game, still think they should start Alex Smith and give Kap reps. that said, if they start Kap then fine, he did earn another look.

this part of the article caught my attention:

Harbaugh said Wednesday the QB for the NFC West-leading Niners (7-2-1) could change week to week, and even during the course of a game.

IF this means changing starters week to week, then i'm not for it. choose one and let the entire unit keep gelling.

i'm ok with "during the course of the game", as long as it isn't flop flopping. if Kap struggles, then put Alex in. if Alex is the starter, then give Kap series like what they've been doing earlier.

Agree that changing QBs weekly is a terrible idea. Assuming that's just some gamesmanship. We could go back to Smith next week, but if we do, then I think we've got to stick with him. If we go with Kap past this week, he's the starter the rest of the way.

 

[SRPnVA]

for this next game, still think they should start Alex Smith and give Kap reps. that said, if they start Kap then fine, he did earn another look.

this part of the article caught my attention:

Harbaugh said Wednesday the QB for the NFC West-leading Niners (7-2-1) could change week to week, and even during the course of a game.

IF this means changing starters week to week, then i'm not for it. choose one and let the entire unit keep gelling.

i'm ok with "during the course of the game", as long as it isn't flop flopping. if Kap struggles, then put Alex in. if Alex is the starter, then give Kap series like what they've been doing earlier.

Don't worry. He's not going to do any of that. He was just answering the question the reporter asked. Basically saing you could, but we won't. You "could" do a lot of things, but doesn't mean you will. The writing on the wall is pretty clear. He's going with Kaep.

 

[spacedoodoopistol]

Even I'm juiced about the Kaepernick era. Roman and crew should be able to have some fun employing his variety of threats, I bet they already have some awesome stuff cooked up.

 

[zman1527]

I'm all for Kaepernick starting. I supported Smith through all those dark years, and was thrilled to see him coming along last year. But he's limited. His arm strength is limited. He can make most of the throws, but really only when circumstances are ideal. He rarely makes throws in a crowded pocket, or off his back foot before taking a hit. And, of course, he rarely throws guys open unless we're pressing late in the game.

And Smith's limitations go beyond the physical. His pocket presence is poor, and his ability to sidestep pressure is about as bad as I've seen by a longterm NFL starter. As soon as the pocket collapses, he either goes down or he flees the pocket entirely. That's part of what was so refreshing about Kap's TD to Crabtree: he felt pressure, sidestepped it, moved up in the pocket, and continued to look downfield and delivered a strike. Smith almost never does that. Smith's vision is also mediocre at best.

Now, I can't say with conviction that Kap will be better at those intangible aspects of the game right now, but I'd be surprised if he's much worse. And combined with the superior physical tools, it makes this a pretty easy choice IMO.

Finally, the timing for this is good. If Kap struggles, we can go back to Smith and say that he just wasn't 100% yet and we didn't want to trot him out there without a full week of practice. That said, starting in NO is a great experience for Kap. It's a hostile environment, and a mentally challenging D. But it's also a D we'll be able to run on effectively, taking some of the pressure off him. We've got games against NO and NE that we're probably 50-50 to win regardless of who is starting at QB. So let's see what Kap can do and develop him a bit so that, if he does have some success, he's prepared for the playoffs. Anyway, my two cents. Or buck-fifty, considering the length of this post...

I disagree and think that Alex should continue to start. Now, I totally agree about Kap's greater talent, zero argument there. He looked fantastic and has some incredible tools. And I agree about Alex's limitations too.

But look where we are, well situated in the playoff hunt, and Alex just coming off player of the week honors. Alex can get us to the SB and win the SB, even with his limited abilities.

Now, with Kap, what are the odds of a second year QB who has started one game having some seriously bad games? Pretty high I would say, kind of like some that Luck has had. It is part of the process of learning and I do not think Kap is immune to that. Heck, he fumbled twice against the Rams and we were just lucky to get them back. I think Kap could lose us a game or two more than otherwise and give us a worse seeding.

We almost did it last year with Alex and we are in great shape this year with Alex. Kap is the future, but Alex is now.

 

[Jikkle]

Going with CK is a bit of a risk but it's one well worth it.

Of course he's going to have his bumps and struggles but if he can play like he did against the Bears then I don't want to use the word unbeatable but we easily become the top team in the NFL.

We're a headache for defenses to defend right now with Alex but with CK's ability and willingness to attack every inch of the field with his arm and legs we become a complete nightmare to defend against. The sheer volume of what defenses would need to prepare for would be staggering and even if they are prepared it would still be difficult to cover against everything.

I also think we need to keep in mind that it's not like Harbaugh is just putting him out there due to 1 game. CK is Harbaugh's handpicked guy from the start and has been groomed to take the job the moment he was drafted.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

I disagree and think that Alex should continue to start. Now, I totally agree about Kap's greater talent, zero argument there. He looked fantastic and has some incredible tools. And I agree about Alex's limitations too.

But look where we are, well situated in the playoff hunt, and Alex just coming off player of the week honors. Alex can get us to the SB and win the SB, even with his limited abilities.

Now, with Kap, what are the odds of a second year QB who has started one game having some seriously bad games? Pretty high I would say, kind of like some that Luck has had. It is part of the process of learning and I do not think Kap is immune to that. Heck, he fumbled twice against the Rams and we were just lucky to get them back. I think Kap could lose us a game or two more than otherwise and give us a worse seeding.

We almost did it last year with Alex and we are in great shape this year with Alex. Kap is the future, but Alex is now.

I hate the example of the Cards' game as evidence that Smith has been playing great lately. He made some nice throws in that game, but the biggest impact in that game by far was by the receivers. Roughly half the receiving yards in that game came after the catch. Smith did a nice job placing the ball on short and intermediate passes, but let's not pretend that was an elite passing performance. It was extremely efficient.

I just can't agree that we're in great shape going into the playoffs with Alex. Alex is easy to defend. Pressure up the middle, press coverage to slow his receivers off the line, and clog the short passing lanes. We can win with Smith, but it's the team winning with Smith. If we can get threaten downfield, it will allow our rushing offense to just explode. Last week we passed to set up the run. When is the last time we did that? We've already got the best run game in the league despite the stacked boxes. Push one or two defenders back, keep the threat of Kaepernick running to the outside alive, and this could be a historically good rushing offense. And that's not to mention the skill that Kaepernick showed throwing the ball this week.

Kap put together a complete game at the QB position. I really like Alex Smith - admittedly more as a story than as a QB - but I struggle to remember four good quarters from him. And I'm very skeptical that we'd get three good games from him in the playoffs. Kyle Williams might have cost us the NFC Championship game, but Alex Smith repeatedly failed to seize our opportunities to win.

I guess ultimately my point is that if we're going to play to protect a QB, let's protect the QB who can really open up the playbook. I'd take an additional turnover a game in return for the explosiveness we had on offense last week. And let's not forget that Alex himself has had two multiple turnover games this year, both of which we lost. I'm not wedded to Kaepernick, but if he plays well again this week, let's see what he can do. I'd rather fail taking a shot at the Super Bowl than lay up and simply accept a likely playoff loss. Go big or go home!

And just for the record, I am a very deliberate person who is not at all prone to knee-jerk reactions. I just think starting Kap this week makes too much sense not to do it.

 

[CalamityX11]

Lets not assume the direction of the offense will change too.... it should still remain the same in terms of gameplanning and strategy/philosphy but it will be Kap's ability and trigger to make the big throws and/or stretch the field that will be upgraded vs what Alex had been doing.

 

[yossarian]

This is the perfect time to start CK, since Smith hasn't even been medically cleared to play yet (although that just may be very convenient and coincidental timing). And Crimson, this is the only part of your take that I disagree with
"I just can't agree that we're in great shape going into the playoffs with Alex. Alex is easy to defend. Pressure up the middle, press coverage to slow his receivers off the line, and clog the short passing lanes."

To me anyway, the defense that can do all those things effectively is pretty rare, that would mean the defense has good man to man corners, good d line to get sacks, and good linebackers in coverage -- we saw the game against Seattle -- which has one of the better defenses, wasn't able to do all three.

In any event, I don't think that really changes the analysis -- CK seemed to see downfield and the covered receivers better than Smith, and has the arm to take advantage of his vision -- I think that's a huge advantage to have.

 

[deep9er]

Lets not assume the direction of the offense will change too.... it should still remain the same in terms of gameplanning and strategy/philosphy but it will be Kap's ability and trigger to make the big throws and/or stretch the field that will be upgraded vs what Alex had been doing.

agree, there shouldn't be a change to the offense. they'll lean to plays more suited for Kaep, and more suited against N.O., but these are 'adjustments' of what is already there.

mainly because there are 10 other guys who've been doing it all season.

 

[MHSL82]

Last week we passed to set up the run. When is the last time we did that? We've already got the best run game in the league despite the stacked boxes. Push one or two defenders back, keep the threat of Kaepernick running to the outside alive, and this could be a historically good rushing offense. And that's not to mention the skill that Kaepernick showed throwing the ball this week.

We'll go back and forth on that, as I believe we used the pass to set up the run, partly because the Bears wouldn't expect that. I feel confident in our coaching staff to do a good job knowing which one will work and it's good to know it can work with Kaep, assuming he is hard to adjust to and still good enough when the defenses adjust. As many have said, you can't adjust to certain talents and abilities. It's not like he can be exposed like Troy (i.e., couldn't pass from the pocket). Adjustment might just change our gameplan to certain situations - if we can anticipate what defense will try to do to adjust, we can prepare the best plan going forward. Again, confident with our coaches, despite no one being perfect.

 

[threelittleturds]

Apparently Donte Whitner told Dan Patrick this morning on his show that CK is starting... just thought I'd post this since the coaches are apparently still not saying it is CK.

 

[deep9er]

We'll go back and forth on that, as I believe we used the pass to set up the run, partly because the Bears wouldn't expect that. I feel confident in our coaching staff to do a good job knowing which one will work and it's good to know it can work with Kaep, assuming he is hard to adjust to and still good enough when the defenses adjust. As many have said, you can't adjust to certain talents and abilities. It's not like he can be exposed like Troy (i.e., couldn't pass from the pocket). Adjustment might just change our gameplan to certain situations - if we can anticipate what defense will try to do to adjust, we can prepare the best plan going forward. Again, confident with our coaches, despite no one being perfect.

general comment on the 'downfield' passing game: it is great as long as the pass plays work. if it doesn't work, that is a quick three and out.

we used to see this a LOT with June Jones, when it is working....FANTASTIC....but when it isn't, your defense suffers.