Rookie Running Backs 2018 edition

[averagejoe]

Welp, I know I'm in the minority here.
Shouldn't have stirred up the nest.

I'd be willing to draft a rookie even in a redraft league.
But the 2 main factors for me are:

• Unlike vets who (even though may be viewed as mediocre), they haven't proved they can survive in an NFL system. Trent Richardson, Eddie Lacy, Abdullah, Montee Ball, Christine Michael, David Wilson... all of these guys were high draft picks (top 3 rounds) that failed.
• The NFL 16-game schedule. Some say Hunt was affected by the extra grind of an NFL season. Look, I was impressed with what McCaffrey did last year. No joke. But if they keep throwing to him like that his NFL career is gonna be a short one.

I see your points.
But do you really want to convince me - the rookie hater - to come over to the dark side so as to have another potential owner to swipe one of your precious rookie off the board?

 

[HaroldSeattle]

not sure if Kamara is a good example, because he didn't get the ball often the first few weeks because of ingram and Peterson... really we predicted that correct... the problem was that peterson was so bad that he was released, and that opened up the spot for Kamara... then of course the rest is,....

It’s not how you start, it’s how you did throughout the season as a whole. The situation for Kamara looked bad, because most folks drafting still thought AP was going to be good.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

It’s not how you start, it’s how you did throughout the season as a whole. The situation for Kamara looked bad, because most folks drafting still thought AP was going to be good.

It is about how you start because that is the situation that you are drafting a player to... if we knew peterson wasn't going to be there then we would have drafted differently...

 

[HaroldSeattle]

It is about how you start because that is the situation that you are drafting a player to... if we knew peterson wasn't going to be there then we would have drafted differently...

Let me give your short version " I mistaken about Kamara situation "

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Welp, I know I'm in the minority here.
Shouldn't have stirred up the nest.

I'd be willing to draft a rookie even in a redraft league.
But the 2 main factors for me are:

• Unlike vets who (even though may be viewed as mediocre), they haven't proved they can survive in an NFL system. Trent Richardson, Eddie Lacy, Abdullah, Montee Ball, Christine Michael, David Wilson... all of these guys were high draft picks (top 3 rounds) that failed.
• The NFL 16-game schedule. Some say Hunt was affected by the extra grind of an NFL season. Look, I was impressed with what McCaffrey did last year. No joke. But if they keep throwing to him like that his NFL career is gonna be a short one.

I see your points.
But do you really want to convince me - the rookie hater - to come over to the dark side so as to have another potential owner to swipe one of your precious rookie off the board?

i understand the hesitancy towards Barkley, as he is already being drafted near his potential would deserve... he Needs to be ELITE for him to be a WIN...

but the next RB isn't being taken until the 3rd round... and most even later... so here is the question, would you rather have a veteran, who you know what you are going to get, and very unlikely to be anything better than a low end RB 2, or take a chance on some mystery box who can become IF ALL THINGS GO WELL, a RB 1, or at least a high end RB2??

Mystery boxes are fun, and when you are right, you can WIN leagues that way.... boring veterans, might be consistent, but they dont really win leagues for ya...

 

[Stomp]

Unlike vets who (even though may be viewed as mediocre), they haven't proved they can survive in an NFL system. Trent Richardson, Eddie Lacy, Abdullah, Montee Ball, Christine Michael, David Wilson... all of these guys were high draft picks (top 3 rounds) that failed.

Trent and Lacy had great rookie seasons worthy of a 1st round pick in redraft. Abdullah and Ball were also good values in the range they were being drafted in. Christina was being drafted as cuff to Lynch in late rounds. Wilson is the only guy out of those 6 that didm't live up to expectations as a rookie.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Let me give your short version " I mistaken about Kamara situation "

i am just saying i dont think we did... dont get fooled by end of year results... Hindsight complicates everything because it gives you proof of being right or wrong... but at the time, you dont have that proof... so you can only draft by what you know....

what we knew about the saints last year is that they had ingram as their RB1 and they just signed Adrian Peterson, and drafted Alvin Kamara.. no matter what Kamara was not going to supplant Ingram other than injury, and many people thought Peterson would get a lot of action because why else would you add a HOF back??


and it looked like we were GOING to be right after the first few weeks...



I think Kamara's situation last year looks like Kalen Ballage's situation this season... Besides of course Saints vs Dolphins...

But both teams have a RB1 who they dont exactly LOVE, but have no reason not to like him, both teams ADDED a veteran back who is respected around the league and will likely steal a lot of carries, and BOTH teams drafted an uber athletic RB....

 

[averagejoe]

i understand the hesitancy towards Barkley, as he is already being drafted near his potential would deserve... he Needs to be ELITE for him to be a WIN...

but the next RB isn't being taken until the 3rd round... and most even later... so here is the question, would you rather have a veteran, who you know what you are going to get, and very unlikely to be anything better than a low end RB 2, or take a chance on some mystery box who can become IF ALL THINGS GO WELL, a RB 1, or at least a high end RB2??

Mystery boxes are fun, and when you are right, you can WIN leagues that way.... boring veterans, might be consistent, but they dont really win leagues for ya...

Yeah, but even NFL teams are hesitating on RB too. Maybe they see the success of a 5th round Jordan Howard or an undrafted Priest Holmes type which might have some GM's rethinking their draft day strategy on a position that doesn't have a long shelf life (unless they become elite).

In addition to that there are fewer 3-down backs. Teams are leaning towards committees. And some of these rookies are already being labeled "early down" or "passing down" backs. I want a RB that does EVERY down. So I'm certainly not going to dive early into a draft for a rookie who is not gonna be the workhorse.

 

[averagejoe]

Trent and Lacy had great rookie seasons worthy of a 1st round pick in redraft. Abdullah and Ball were also good values in the range they were being drafted in. Christina was being drafted as cuff to Lynch in late rounds. Wilson is the only guy out of those 6 that didm't live up to expectations as a rookie.

Thanks for that but I wasn't expecting a summary. This was the short list over the last few years.
I guess I should stop before I get beat up.

 

[Stomp]

Thanks for that but I wasn't expecting a summary. This was the short list over the last few years.
I guess I should stop before I get beat up.

A lot of the guys get drafted then dropped then they take off in the down the fantasy stretch and some lucky owner rides a mid season WW pickup to a championship.

Beckham
Montee
Jeremy Hill
Kamara
Le'Veon Bell
Jordan Howard

Many fantasy owners don't have the patients to let their rookies develop. Aside from Barkley and maybe Penny i think anyone drafting rookie RBs 2-8 should consider cuffing them early unless they are getting them as flex/bench guys anyways.

 

[tlance]

Hi Rookie Lovers!
How y'all doin'?

I will admit that some rookies may be worth drafting in a redraft league.
But I also believe that rookies like Ezekiel Elliott ruined the draft curve.
Not all rookies end up on a run-first team with an incredibly dominant offensive line like double-E did.
I get the attraction.
But it used to be a mid-to-late round flyer to take a rookie.
Now rookies are going in the top 3-4 rounds.
That's generally reserved for the meat-and-potatoes of your fantasy squad!
FIVE rookie RB went in the MBBRL last August in rounds 1 thru 4.

Just a reminder that Leonard Fournette was the first rookie off the board for the KOTF and the BATG. He finished a respectable 8th among RB.
Christian McCaffery was the next rookie drafted in both leagues. He finished 15th among RB.
Kareem Hunt was drafted 3rd in both leagues and topped them both, finishing 3rd.
Seven rookie RB were drafted ahead of Alvin Kamara who finished 4th.

I enjoy reading your views on the rookies that come up every year.
I do. Your insights are very helpful.
And it amazes me that no matter how off your predictions might be, or how much you get burned by a rookie, you're all back on the horse the following season.

I'm glad someone is always willing to burn an early round pick on a rookie and get 'em off the board.
Too cynical?
You know I love you guys, right?

Joe not so interested in drafting rookies?

Shocker!