Rookie Running Backs 2018 edition

[Ram Tough]

First of all happy 4th of July to everyone!!

Love or hate them, rookie running backs are a major fantasy assest and sometimes major value. More than ever it seems if you take the correct rookie Runningback(s) you can be well on your way to atleast the playoff semi finals and hopefully Championship. The intruging part of the rookie Runningback is you just don't know what your gonna get when you draft them...

Again this year there are several rookie Runningbacks that are for sure to make a difference for there fantasy owners.. question is which one(s) will it be

Here are the rookie backs broken down in an early tier ( as I see them)

Fantasy Breakout: Saquan Barkely

Prime landing spot with chance of breakout: Rashaad Penny, Darrius Guice, Royce Freeman, Sony Michel

Need things to bounce there way but there's a chance to be a difference maker: Ronald Jones ll, Kerryon Johnson

Chance for PPR value: Nyheim Hines

Needs an injury or something miraculous to occur for fantasy value: Nick Chubb, Chase Edmonds, Kalen Ballage, Ito Smith, Jordan Wilkins, Bo Scarbrough


Would love to hear feedback on who everyone likes and who they are staying away from.. I will be updating my tiers and rankings of these rookie RBs throughout the summer

 

[TREFF]

happy 4th to you and everyone else as well. And welcome back Ram!

Personally, I think you should put Chubb in your "need things to bounce his way" category. I'm not entirely sure Hyde has to get injured for Chubb to send him to the bench.

Guys I like haven't changed a whole lot since the draft.
Barkley, Chubb, Michel are the only guys I feel are true game changed types.
Guice, Penny, and Jones I like almost purely due to their situations. I'm hesitant to put Freeman in that category only because I'm not sold at all on him beating out Booker/Henderson.
Guys I'm staying away from entirely are Hines- he's far too similar to Mack. Kerryon Johnson- the way Detroit plays offense they need something ultra special to be a difference maker at RB, and Johnson ain't special at much. Plus there's Riddick, Blount and Abdullah all still in town. Only touching Ballage if I've already got Drake.
And the deep sleeper types I like to take a flyer on are Wilkins. Wilkins as he's the only back in Indy that's capable of producing in a straight up standard rushing game.

 

[Ram Tough]

happy 4th to you and everyone else as well. And welcome back Ram!

Personally, I think you should put Chubb in your "need things to bounce his way" category. I'm not entirely sure Hyde has to get injured for Chubb to send him to the bench.

Guys I like haven't changed a whole lot since the draft.
Barkley, Chubb, Michel are the only guys I feel are true game changed types.
Guice, Penny, and Jones I like almost purely due to their situations. I'm hesitant to put Freeman in that category only because I'm not sold at all on him beating out Booker/Henderson.
Guys I'm staying away from entirely are Hines- he's far too similar to Mack. Kerryon Johnson- the way Detroit plays offense they need something ultra special to be a difference maker at RB, and Johnson ain't special at much. Plus there's Riddick, Blount and Abdullah all still in town. Only touching Ballage if I've already got Drake.
And the deep sleeper types I like to take a flyer on are Wilkins. Wilkins as he's the only back in Indy that's capable of producing in a straight up standard rushing game.

Truth be told.. I am extremely high on Royce Freeman this year, love the guys potential and am not worried about Booker/Henderson at all

 

[Stomp]

Tier 1
Saquan Barkley -I'm going to start considering him after the big 4 are off the board(Giants line worries me, but this guy was number 1 in almost every important category over the last couple years. Unbelievable talent

Tier 4-5
Derrius Guice - Actually like Chubb and Michel better than him, but i can't see Kelley or Perine being able to stop Dan Snyder from forcing his coach to unleash his new toy(Rob Kelley 100% should be the starter for early down work heading into the season)

Tier 6
Nick Chubb - Not a big fan of Hyde, but he's definitely an obstacle and Duke has 3rd downs on lock down New contract and 74 catches 1000+ scrimmage yards last season. That said Chubb is a monster pre injury i had him ahead of Cook who some here know i love and he's had plenty of time to get healthy i'm pretty confident he'll take the early down, short yardage and some of the clock killing duties away from Hyde quickly(Lets be real this isn't happening much this season unless the browns fire Hue after week 1)

Tier 8
Kerryon Johnson - If he makes it this far i'll be happy with him as a RB3 or 4

Other
Rishaad Penny going way to early if he made it to round 6-7 i'd snap him up quick
Sony Michel 3rd RB rook as far as talent avoiding him entirely, because of Bellichick
Royce Freeman still think Devontae Booker should get the lead role
Ron Jones change of pace guy that may turn into a Tevin Coleman type eventually(not this year)
Jaylen Samuels could see grabbing him in a later round this guy is very talented and can play a lot of positions and is much better than that back the Steelers drafted last year
Ito Smith might draft him as a very late cuff to Freeman in a league with deep benches Tier 16 or later
Kalen Ballage I'd have to be pretty desperate for an RB to draft this guy in redraft, but it could happen. He has a similar skill set to Kenyon so maybe as a cuff.

Don't see myself even looking at any of the other rooks. BTW Tiers for me mean round in a 12 team league.

 

[leftypower]

First, nice breakdown Ram and happy 4th to you as well. Based upon your 'rookie' success over the past few yrs, I can't argue with what you have.. .... I'm assuming that take is based upon a this yr value (?) - and dynasty outlook would be somewhat different. ....

 

[Stomp]

Sorry about the grammar been up for 21 hours tried to clean it up a bit.

 

[TREFF]

Truth be told.. I am extremely high on Royce Freeman this year, love the guys potential and am not worried about Booker/Henderson at all

well, just to let you know, the local homer guys that are gaga over the slightest hint of anything good, ready to put them in the HOF type nutso, they aren't sold on Freeman either

 

[Ram Tough]

First, nice breakdown Ram and happy 4th to you as well. Based upon your 'rookie' success over the past few yrs, I can't argue with what you have.. .... I'm assuming that take is based upon a this yr value (?) - and dynasty outlook would be somewhat different. ....

Strictly this upcoming year @leftypower.. for Dynasty Chubb would be alot higher, but I just don't really like him this year unless I got him with a late round pick. In a non PPR there could be some value but in a PPR league I just don't see it..

 

[HaroldSeattle]

For redraft purposes:

Barkley in a tier of his own, although I don't think he'll produce top ten numbers with the giants offense.

Penny and Freeman I like for fair situations, and good talent.

Chubb is a difference maker, but not in a ideal situation. He'll end up being the work horse but may take a few games to get there.

Guice, Michel, Jones are going to get opportunities, but don't have faith in them.

For redraft in standard leagues that is about the only rookies I would consider.
Would keep a eye on Chase Edmonds, he could be good if DJ goes down.

 

[averagejoe]

Hi Rookie Lovers!
How y'all doin'?

I will admit that some rookies may be worth drafting in a redraft league.
But I also believe that rookies like Ezekiel Elliott ruined the draft curve.
Not all rookies end up on a run-first team with an incredibly dominant offensive line like double-E did.
I get the attraction.
But it used to be a mid-to-late round flyer to take a rookie.
Now rookies are going in the top 3-4 rounds.
That's generally reserved for the meat-and-potatoes of your fantasy squad!
FIVE rookie RB went in the MBBRL last August in rounds 1 thru 4.

Just a reminder that Leonard Fournette was the first rookie off the board for the KOTF and the BATG. He finished a respectable 8th among RB.
Christian McCaffery was the next rookie drafted in both leagues. He finished 15th among RB.
Kareem Hunt was drafted 3rd in both leagues and topped them both, finishing 3rd.
Seven rookie RB were drafted ahead of Alvin Kamara who finished 4th.

I enjoy reading your views on the rookies that come up every year.
I do. Your insights are very helpful.
And it amazes me that no matter how off your predictions might be, or how much you get burned by a rookie, you're all back on the horse the following season.

I'm glad someone is always willing to burn an early round pick on a rookie and get 'em off the board.
Too cynical?
You know I love you guys, right?

 

[HaroldSeattle]

The other side of the leaf @averagejoe Jay Ajayi drafted at #9 and Demarrco Murray @ #14

 

[averagejoe]

The other side of the leaf @averagejoe Jay Ajayi drafted at #9 and Demarrco Murray @ #14

But not by me.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Hi Rookie Lovers!
How y'all doin'?

I will admit that some rookies may be worth drafting in a redraft league.
But I also believe that rookies like Ezekiel Elliott ruined the draft curve.
Not all rookies end up on a run-first team with an incredibly dominant offensive line like double-E did.
I get the attraction.
But it used to be a mid-to-late round flyer to take a rookie.
Now rookies are going in the top 3-4 rounds.
That's generally reserved for the meat-and-potatoes of your fantasy squad!
FIVE rookie RB went in the MBBRL last August in rounds 1 thru 4.

Just a reminder that Leonard Fournette was the first rookie off the board for the KOTF and the BATG. He finished a respectable 8th among RB.
Christian McCaffery was the next rookie drafted in both leagues. He finished 15th among RB.
Kareem Hunt was drafted 3rd in both leagues and topped them both, finishing 3rd.
Seven rookie RB were drafted ahead of Alvin Kamara who finished 4th.

I enjoy reading your views on the rookies that come up every year.
I do. Your insights are very helpful.
And it amazes me that no matter how off your predictions might be, or how much you get burned by a rookie, you're all back on the horse the following season.

I'm glad someone is always willing to burn an early round pick on a rookie and get 'em off the board.
Too cynical?
You know I love you guys, right?

Results after the fact are irrelevant... you are wrong more than correct with non rookies too.. Remember two years ago how Gurley was a first round pick during his JR year, and was an absolute bust despite being healthy??

Rookies IMO are just like veterans... at least thats how i see them... i just look at the situation... not the player, since i expect to be wrong in the first place... I was high on Hunt last season because of the KC situation, and i was down on West(before he went down)...

IMO situations are more important than skill... of course elite skill plays... but situation plays so much more than skill... And of course SKILL WITH SITUATION is ideal...

Thats why i am so high on barkley going into this season... he clearly has the skill, and he is on a team that has wanted to be a running team the past 3-4 seasons, just couldn't because they haven't had the skill players to do so...

 

[HaroldSeattle]

But not by me.

True you took Crowell in the second round. You could have drafted McCaffery and done better.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Rookie RBs have their risks, but lets not over look that two of the top five RBs last year were rookies and three of the top 10. If your not considering rookies RBs, your not making a decision that works in your favor.

 

[averagejoe]

True you took Crowell in the second round. You could have drafted McCaffery and done better.

​

 

[TREFF]

all those rookies kicked the crap out of David Johnson last year..believe that!

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Results after the fact are irrelevant... you are wrong more than correct with non rookies too.. Remember two years ago how Gurley was a first round pick during his JR year, and was an absolute bust despite being healthy??

Rookies IMO are just like veterans... at least thats how i see them... i just look at the situation... not the player, since i expect to be wrong in the first place... I was high on Hunt last season because of the KC situation, and i was down on West(before he went down)...

IMO situations are more important than skill... of course elite skill plays... but situation plays so much more than skill... And of course SKILL WITH SITUATION is ideal...

Thats why i am so high on barkley going into this season... he clearly has the skill, and he is on a team that has wanted to be a running team the past 3-4 seasons, just couldn't because they haven't had the skill players to do so...

Everyone considers the situation, however it’s easy enough to read the situation wrong also. Kamara being one example, plenty of other examples on a lesser scale.

 

[SteelersPride]

im on the royce freeman bandwagon as well

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Everyone considers the situation, however it’s easy enough to read the situation wrong also. Kamara being one example, plenty of other examples on a lesser scale.

not sure if Kamara is a good example, because he didn't get the ball often the first few weeks because of ingram and Peterson... really we predicted that correct... the problem was that peterson was so bad that he was released, and that opened up the spot for Kamara... then of course the rest is,....