Robbie Cano

[sfsportsfan]

10 years/240mill.


Mariners are my number 2 team so I'm excited they finally made a move. Like their rotation but not sure this fixes their lineup.

Their weak at first and in the OF. I like Ackley and think Saunders has potential. Maybe they trade one of their many 2nd baseman for another OF. They also need Montero to meet his potential.


I feel like no ones gonna care about this thread.

 

[SF11704]

IMHO these are the types of deals that are changing the landscape of baseball. 24M per year for 10 years for a 28 year old is setting one hell of a bar to try and follow. I always figured that you could get a long term deal a little cheaper just because of the security being offered. It's these types of deals that will dictate how agents will want their clients represented. Get a few short term (1-2 year) contracts while they are young. If after 5 years of MLB you think you have a superstar in the making ..... now the pitch for the 10 year retirement contract.

 

[sfsportsfan]

One thing I will say in favor of this signing is I've been watching Clubhouse Confidential on mlb network and they've done indepth analysis on the mar free agents of the last few years and pretty much projected Pujols and Hamiltons struggles. For the first time they actually were favorable on a big contract with Cano.

They've got a good track record.

 

[Brahmsian]

It makes a good player into an EX Yankee! I love that aspect of the deal.

 

[tzill]

IMHO these are the types of deals that are changing the landscape of baseball. 24M per year for 10 years for a 28 year old is setting one hell of a bar to try and follow. I always figured that you could get a long term deal a little cheaper just because of the security being offered. It's these types of deals that will dictate how agents will want their clients represented. Get a few short term (1-2 year) contracts while they are young. If after 5 years of MLB you think you have a superstar in the making ..... now the pitch for the 10 year retirement contract.

He's not 28, he's 31. The M's paid about $7MM/projected WAR for him, which is a slight overpay. It's a classic example where he'll be a bargain at $25MM/year for 3-4 years and a HUGE albatross after that. This move only makes sense if the M's are going to spend more and bring in Price and/or Choo. We'll see.

I should note that this makes Nick Franklin available. I'd deal one of our B arms for him, like Blackburn.

Oxy CF
Franklin 2B
BB9 1B
Panda 3B
Gerald C
Herk RF
(TBD) LF
Stamos SS

Bench: Chez3/Kobe/Scoots/Shark/JCP

 

[anotheridiot]

Its still not arod territory so thats ok. Seattle did this with him too, so dont think Cano will finish his career there, but at least he is in the AL where he can dh later if he does make it.

 

[MarcoPolo]

Its still not arod territory so thats ok. Seattle did this with him too, so dont think Cano will finish his career there, but at least he is in the AL where he can dh later if he does make it.

another idiot chimes in. Seattle did NOT gives A-roid tons of money; they didn't ever give him even $5M. The Rangers barfed up that abortion of a contract. (Roid wasn't traded to Texas, he went there as a free agent.)

 

[MarcoPolo]

He's not 28, he's 31. The M's paid about $7MM/projected WAR for him, which is a slight overpay. It's a classic example where he'll be a bargain at $25MM/year for 3-4 years and a HUGE albatross after that. This move only makes sense if the M's are going to spend more and bring in Price and/or Choo. We'll see.

I should note that this makes Nick Franklin available. I'd deal one of our B arms for him, like Blackburn.

I'd like Franklin too, but I'd probably stash him in Fresno until Scutaro goes down with an injury (Franklin has *all three* option years available, so lots of flexibility). I really, really hate Sabes' "bring back the crew" approach to signings, because he ends up giving one year too many to guys (I never liked that third year he gave to Scoots, at age 39).

 

[Mays-Fan]

I'd like Franklin too, but I'd probably stash him in Fresno until Scutaro goes down with an injury (Franklin has *all three* option years available, so lots of flexibility). I really, really hate Sabes' "bring back the crew" approach to signings, because he ends up giving one year too many to guys (I never liked that third year he gave to Scoots, at age 39).

I admittedly don't know much about Franklin, but wouldn't we be better served if we are to make a trade to direct our resources toward getting a RHH OF? Is Franklin an upgrade over Panik? Scutaro still has value for now, and if he stays healthy, he is well down the list of concerns we have, IMHO. And there is always Arias and Abreu.

And re Scutaro's contract, I see your point, but the contract is not that large, and if we didn't offer the third year, likely someone else would have. Just remember how we all felt about him during and after the 2012 run. I'm not saying to pay him for the past - we should always pay for value going forward. That's why we didn't re-sign Renteria after 2010. I thought it was a good signing and a fair contract.

 

[MarcoPolo]

Re: Scutaro. I did not like that contract. I understand he was amazingly clutch for us in 2012. Sabes rewarded him for past performance - there's no way he was ever going to give us a full year like Aug-Oct '12. You just do not give a contract like that to an IF that old. He *might* have gotten a third year from another team, but it is far from a given (IMO). At the time I thought "Geez Sabes, there you go again with the over-pay. If he has an 'average' year (for him) then I can stomach it, but we'll probably only get one good year out of that contract." I also thought "hopefully he can teach some of the youngsters what 'situational hitting' means - it's clear BamBam has no clue how to teach it".

How much of Crawford's hitting improvement do y'all think is due to Scutaro whispering in his ear?

 

[calsnowskier]

Re: Scutaro. I did not like that contract. I understand he was amazingly clutch for us in 2012. Sabes rewarded him for past performance - there's no way he was ever going to give us a full year like Aug-Oct '12. You just do not give a contract like that to an IF that old. He *might* have gotten a third year from another team, but it is far from a given (IMO). At the time I thought "Geez Sabes, there you go again with the over-pay. If he has an 'average' year (for him) then I can stomach it, but we'll probably only get one good year out of that contract." I also thought "hopefully he can teach some of the youngsters what 'situational hitting' means - it's clear BamBam has no clue how to teach it".

How much of Crawford's hitting improvement do y'all think is due to Scutaro whispering in his ear?

I would think quite a bit. They are very similar hitters (approach-wise) and Craw was having an amazing year before he jammed his fingers (why do players still insist on sliding head first?)

 

[tzill]

Scoots only has to yield 1.0 WAR a year or so to justify his contract. Last two years have been 2.1 and 2.4, that's actually a bargain. Put another way, we gave him $20MM for 3 years. He's already produced 2.4 WAR on the contract. He projects to 2.0 in 2014. He could be cut in ST of 2015 and still have produced the value of his contract. I really don't get how he's an overpay...

 

[MarcoPolo]

Scoots only has to yield 1.0 WAR a year or so to justify his contract. Last two years have been 2.1 and 2.4, that's actually a bargain. Put another way, we gave him $20MM for 3 years. He's already produced 2.4 WAR on the contract. He projects to 2.0 in 2014. He could be cut in ST of 2015 and still have produced the value of his contract. I really don't get how he's an overpay...

I guess that you don't get it because you haven't seen any analyses looking at WAR by position (or maybe you just don't believe them). It turns out that different positions' $$/WAR vary widely. Second basement are "rewarded" the least, OFers are rewarded up to twice what 2Bs got, and relief pitchers are rewarded the most. The average $$/WAR for 2B from 07-11 was : $3M. (For relievers, it was 16M !!).

That's one part of it (for me). The other is that I didn't (and still don't) believe that he will produce as well as he ages. Second base is a tough position, and he'll probably 'degrade' (get old) quickly at his age. (It's not as if he's playing LF.) I was actually pleasantly surprised at his overall offensive production last season (even though he did put up fewer RBIs than last year's stint with the Giants, even though he had twice the PAs this year). I expect him to *at best* hit like he did this year (and that he won't match it for both of the next 2 years), and that he will have health problems that limit his playing time - and that will increase as time goes on. I don't think that he'll put up a WAR of 2 over all 3 years of the contract (which is about what he'll have to do, compared to other 2Bs, for the contract to not be an overpay).

 

[MarcoPolo]

Whoops! I just re-read my post and I fear that the start sounds pretty damn condescending. What I *meant* when I wrote "I guess that you don't get it because you haven't seen any analyses looking at WAR by position ..." was "I guess you haven't seen any analyses" and not "you just don't understand, you moron". Please interpret that as "you haven't stumbled across them" and not as a put-down. The "you don't get it" came directly from your post, which I parroted.

(By the time I saw/realized the possible interpretation, it was too late to edit. When did the board time limit for editing go from 10 minutes {what it was when I joined} to the current 5 minutes???)

 

[tzill]

I guess that you don't get it because you haven't seen any analyses looking at WAR by position (or maybe you just don't believe them). It turns out that different positions' $$/WAR vary widely. Second basement are "rewarded" the least, OFers are rewarded up to twice what 2Bs got, and relief pitchers are rewarded the most. The average $$/WAR for 2B from 07-11 was : $3M. (For relievers, it was 16M !!).

That's one part of it (for me). The other is that I didn't (and still don't) believe that he will produce as well as he ages. Second base is a tough position, and he'll probably 'degrade' (get old) quickly at his age. (It's not as if he's playing LF.) I was actually pleasantly surprised at his overall offensive production last season (even though he did put up fewer RBIs than last year's stint with the Giants, even though he had twice the PAs this year). I expect him to *at best* hit like he did this year (and that he won't match it for both of the next 2 years), and that he will have health problems that limit his playing time - and that will increase as time goes on. I don't think that he'll put up a WAR of 2 over all 3 years of the contract (which is about what he'll have to do, compared to other 2Bs, for the contract to not be an overpay).

Interesting. Can you post a link so I can read up on WAR by position?

That aside, he's produced 2.4 WAR so far on the contract. Let's say he degrades to 2.0 this year and 1.6 next. That's 6 WAR for $20MM, which if your analysis is correct is a $2MM overpay. And that doesn't adjust for WAR inflation. I'm still having a tough time seeing it.

 

[tzill]

Whoops! I just re-read my post and I fear that the start sounds pretty damn condescending. What I *meant* when I wrote "I guess that you don't get it because you haven't seen any analyses looking at WAR by position ..." was "I guess you haven't seen any analyses" and not "you just don't understand, you moron". Please interpret that as "you haven't stumbled across them" and not as a put-down. The "you don't get it" came directly from your post, which I parroted.

(By the time I saw/realized the possible interpretation, it was too late to edit. When did the board time limit for editing go from 10 minutes {what it was when I joined} to the current 5 minutes???)

No worries, your intention was the way I took it.

 

[MarcoPolo]

Interesting. Can you post a link so I can read up on WAR by position?

That aside, he's produced 2.4 WAR so far on the contract. Let's say he degrades to 2.0 this year and 1.6 next. That's 6 WAR for $20MM, which if your analysis is correct is a $2MM overpay. And that doesn't adjust for WAR inflation. I'm still having a tough time seeing it.

I googled : cost of WAR by position 2B

and the first hit was : Positional Differences in the Price of WAR | FanGraphs Baseball

feel free to google-dance some more to find more info. (Did I just invent a new verb? "google dance" ??)

Concerning "overpay" : I was (and still am) afraid that an aging middle-infielder is going to crumble. All at once, not gradually. It started this year with his back; I don't see it getting *better* over time. I'm afraid of a massive drop-off. (Although, as I said, I didn't expect him to do so well this past season.) I was afraid of a 2.0-1.5-1.0 WAR (due to injuries and reduced playing time). A player with a WAR below 2 really shouldn't be a full-time starter.

For me, (I think I already said) the shining star was if he could teach the youngsters some elements of how to hit (some combination of "you can afford to be patient", "work with the pitch location instead of pulling everything", and "situational hitting"). THAT is worth money.

 

[tzill]

I googled : cost of WAR by position 2B

and the first hit was : Positional Differences in the Price of WAR | FanGraphs Baseball

feel free to google-dance some more to find more info. (Did I just invent a new verb? "google dance" ??)

Concerning "overpay" : I was (and still am) afraid that an aging middle-infielder is going to crumble. All at once, not gradually. It started this year with his back; I don't see it getting *better* over time. I'm afraid of a massive drop-off. (Although, as I said, I didn't expect him to do so well this past season.) I was afraid of a 2.0-1.5-1.0 WAR (due to injuries and reduced playing time). A player with a WAR below 2 really shouldn't be a full-time starter.

For me, (I think I already said) the shining star was if he could teach the youngsters some elements of how to hit (some combination of "you can afford to be patient", "work with the pitch location instead of pulling everything", and "situational hitting"). THAT is worth money.

Ok, I get your position, and thanks for the link. I guess I don't see him falling off the table like you do. He's not a pitcher, and he's not a power hitter -- THOSE guys tend to go south quickly. His dWAR has already fallen, and I don't expect his batting eye to suddenly regress. Thus, I'm a bit more optimistic than you. I see 2.0 WAR this year and then 1.6 as he becomes a backup (hopefully to Panik) in 2015.

Edit: just checked the link and 2B WAR was valued at $4.1MM as of 2011. With inflation it's hard to see it as much less than $5MM. Thus, Scoots $20MM contract needs only an additional1.6 WAR to be at value. There is a very good chance he'll deliver excess value on the contract by the end of 2014, and anything in 2015 would be gravy.