Redskins' Kirk Cousins: Still far apart on extension terms

[Niner Outlaw]

Doesn't waiting until next year cost you more money?

Probably, but not enough to matter to teams with a lot of cap space that already wanted Cousins this year. I.e., 25M/year now isn't that much different than 26.5M/year in March.

I think he'll land a deal that pays a bit more than Luck and Carr got. The only way he gets A LOT more than they did (~27-28M/year) is if he blows the league away this year (unlikely) or if Stafford sets a new record for Qb pay (could happen) or if Rodgers renegotiates a BIG extension (who knows?).

I expect KC's numbers/effectiveness to go down this year b/c both his starting WRs are new (though the improvements on defense will aid the team's chances). Then the Skins either say "see, we knew he wasn't worth that much" or transition tag him and decline to match another team's offer. Either way, barring some miraculous SB run, KC walks. That's why it was imperative for Washington to either trade him in February/March (to the team he wants to go to) or sign him to a LTD in the summer.

We Niner fans know all about incompetent ownership and front office work, so I feel your pain.

 

[skinsdad62]

Numbers prove Kirk Cousins' value, even if Redskins don't see it
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While some think Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins is merely above average, the numbers show he may be elite. (0:30)


The Washington Redskins may not know how good they have it.

As the team attempts to lock up quarterback Kirk Cousins to a long-term deal, the rhetoric emanating from the NFC East franchise suggests a belief that their signal-caller is merely an above-average passer. The numbers say that's selling him short.

"Kirk has proven he's in the top 15 quarterbacks," Doug Williams, now the Redskins' senior vice president of player personnel, said recently. The comment wasn't meant as a slight (and may have been a negotiating tactic), as Williams has indicated that he certainly wants to lock Cousins up to a new deal.

Former general manager Scot McCloughan indicated in May that he felt Cousins had reached his ceiling and that the quarterback needed to be surrounded by other talent. Though McCloughan is now out of the picture, his sentiment appears to be a popular perception of Cousins -- a solid but unremarkable quarterback. The advanced metrics paint a different picture, one of an upper-tier passer who probably deserves the higher compensation he seeks.

New York Giants that cost the Redskins a playoff berth -- more evidence for Cousins' detractors that he's prone to the late pick -- he finished the 2016 season with a Total QBR of 71.7, sixth best in the league. It was not a fluke: He finished in the exact same position the year before. Over the course of 2015 and 2016 combined, QBR ranked him fourth, behind only Dak Prescott (in a one-year sample), Tom Brady and Matt Ryan. To repeat: A two-year sample and Cousins was safely in the company of Brady, Ryan and arguably the best rookie quarterback season in history. People get paid for less.

Though there are some instances when analytics reveal hidden talents, the reality is that much of Cousins' abilities have been viewable in plain sight: He was the leader of the offense that recorded the second-most passing yards in 2016 while throwing for the third-most yards per attempt (8.1) among quarterbacks.

Total QBR is not the only advanced metric indicating that Cousins is better than the level Williams referenced. In Football Outsiders' DVOA, Cousins ranked sixth and fifth, respectively, among quarterbacks in 2015 and 2016. He finished eighth and fourth, respectively, in those two years in Pro Football Reference's adjusted net yards per attempt as well.

Certainly, there were a couple of specific areas in which Cousins excelled, as would likely be the case for any quarterback to rank so highly in QBR. Most notably, the Redskins quarterback leaned more heavily on, and had more success with, the deep ball in 2016. Though he finished fourth in raw QBR (which does not adjust for quality of opponent) on passes that traveled 21 or more yards in the air in 2016, he did so on the second-most attempts (69) and therefore contributed more expected points (24.55) on those types of passes than any other quarterback in the league. Ben Roethlisberger ranked second in the category, finishing with 20.57 expected points added on those throws.

While QBR does try to isolate the quarterback's impact on each play, it is worth noting that part of the reason Cousins had the opportunity to throw that many passes downfield is because he had DeSean Jackson on his team. Jackson had the second-most targets (30) and receptions (14) on passes that traveled 21-plus yards in the air last year and ranked third in air yards per target. Cousins will not have the benefit of throwing to Jackson again this season, as the receiver bolted in free agency for Tampa Bay, though Terrelle Pryor Sr. -- 10th in air yards per target last year with far inferior quarterbacks throwing to him -- was signed in his stead.

Additionally, Cousins was at his best, relative to other quarterbacks, when not under pressure, leading the league in 2015 and finishing fourth in 2016 in raw QBR when not under duress. Of course, the flip side of Cousins' success when not under pressure is that he was particularly poor with it. He ranked 30th and 21st in raw QBR when under pressure in 2015 and 2016, respectively, and 17th and 16th when facing five or more pass-rushers in the same time period. Interestingly, opponents did not overly capitalize on this relative weakness, as Cousins was blitzed on only 24.6 percent of dropbacks (16th most) in 2016.

Nonetheless, if the Redskins are hoping to pay Cousins at the rate of a top-15 quarterback, they are probably being optimistic given the numbers the former fourth-round quarterback has put up over the past two seasons.

In March, ESPN reported what is still the latest known offer from the team to the quarterback -- a $20 million per year deal that spanned five years with "low" guarantees. (The MMQB later added that the offer was actually an extension on top of the 2017 franchise tag). Cousins' camp sought a deal starting at his 2017 franchise tag salary of close to $24 million.

A contract with an average annual value (AAV) of $20 million would slot him below 13 quarterbacks in the NFL, per OverTheCap.com. Even if Cousins were only the 14th-best passer in the league, that AAV would be well below market value for him given that all 12 of the 13 quarterbacks on that list -- Derek Carr excluded -- signed their deals in earlier years, when the salary cap was lower.

It's tempting to compare Cousins' situation to Carr's given that the Raiders quarterback recently signed a five-year extension that ESPN reported included $125 million in new money. But frankly, Cousins holds much more leverage than Carr had given that he's already been hit with the franchise tag twice. The Redskins quarterback could look to parlay that leverage into more than the $40 million fully guaranteed that Carr received at signing.

On top of that, Cousins has played at a level far superior to Carr over the past two seasons. While Cousins ranked fourth in Total QBR over 2015-2016 combined, Carr finished 26th in that same span. Even looking at only 2016, Carr ranked 16th, lagging well behind Cousins at No. 6.

Granted, QBR reflects only how well Cousins did play, rather than how he will play, which is probably what the Redskins care about when making a contract offer. But given that he is just 28 years old and finished sixth in the metric two years in a row, there is little reason to think his performance going forward shouldn't be near that mark.

In the end, the offer from the Redskins may not matter, as ESPN recently reported that there is no number from the Redskins that would make Cousins happy. If Cousins ultimately ends up leaving Washington at the end of this saga, the Redskins will be letting a very good quarterback walk out the door.

read this again coach and others , KC outplayed carr by a wide margin

read this dean skins offered 20 mil with low guarantees while KC's camp asked for 24 mil , so the skins wont anti up 4 mil per year and whose fault is that ?

 

[j_y19]

I'm sure somehow it will be Cousins fault. According to Dean, he should just tell the FO what he will settle for (I guess the $24M floor isn't telling them). And then when he walks, VT and the likes can say he was just a grubby, greedy, money hog with thin skin and is a good riddance.........with the exception of we have no viable replacement. But that doesn't seem to matter to these guys. Just make sure KC doesn't get his fair pay, that greedy bastard!

 

[deanpet21]

Probably, but not enough to matter to teams with a lot of cap space that already wanted Cousins this year. I.e., 25M/year now isn't that much different than 26.5M/year in March.

I think he'll land a deal that pays a bit more than Luck and Carr got. The only way he gets A LOT more than they did (~27-28M/year) is if he blows the league away this year (unlikely) or if Stafford sets a new record for Qb pay (could happen) or if Rodgers renegotiates a BIG extension (who knows?).

I expect KC's numbers/effectiveness to go down this year b/c both his starting WRs are new (though the improvements on defense will aid the team's chances). Then the Skins either say "see, we knew he wasn't worth that much" or transition tag him and decline to match another team's offer. Either way, barring some miraculous SB run, KC walks. That's why it was imperative for Washington to either trade him in February/March (to the team he wants to go to) or sign him to a LTD in the summer.

We Niner fans know all about incompetent ownership and front office work, so I feel your pain.

If you traded for KC right now it would be cheaper and the 49ers would be a better team which could win 6-8 games this year. So that would equate to the #16-19 overall pick. So why wait and risk another team bidding for his services in FA? When you can lock him up cheaper and give up a mid first round pick? Kc is not worth a mid first round pick to you guys? Sure you can gamble but the risk outweighs the reward. If Kyle really want him to start his head coach career why should a mid first round pick matter? Or even a 10-15 pick. Why should it matter? You never know what team could jump in next year. You cant deny that its a risk by waiting.

 

[j_y19]

If you traded for KC right now it would be cheaper and the 49ers would be a better team which could win 6-8 games this year. So that would equate to the #16-19 overall pick. So why wait and risk another team bidding for his services in FA? When you can lock him up cheaper and give up a mid first round pick? Kc is not worth a mid first round pick to you guys? Sure you can gamble but the risk outweighs the reward. If Kyle really want him to start his head coach career why should a mid first round pick matter? Or even a 10-15 pick. Why should it matter? You never know what team could jump in next year. You cant deny that its a risk by waiting.

Dean, exactly how is it cheaper to trade for him today?

 

[Sharkinva]

Dean, exactly how is it cheaper to trade for him today?

OH Dean is sort of right.

It MIGHT be cheaper from a cap standpoint to sign Kirk long term this year.

But that would mean for the team trading for him, that they did not take into account the Draft pick or picks they would have to give up as a part of the cost of getting Cousins.

So yea, its cheaper if you consider cheaper saving cap space and losing other possible contributors.

Hell we saved $20M in cap space by trading to get Griffin instead of breaking the bank for Manning... but knowing what you knew then as well as now... would you rather have broken the money bank on Manning, or the draft bank as we did??

 

[j_y19]

OH Dean is sort of right.

It MIGHT be cheaper from a cap standpoint to sign Kirk long term this year.

But that would mean for the team trading for him, that they did not take into account the Draft pick or picks they would have to give up as a part of the cost of getting Cousins.

So yea, its cheaper if you consider cheaper saving cap space and losing other possible contributors.

Hell we saved $20M in cap space by trading to get Griffin instead of breaking the bank for Manning... but knowing what you knew then as well as now... would you rather have broken the money bank on Manning, or the draft bank as we did??

Exactly. I was hoping Dean might think this thru and come to this realization. Once you figure in the picks you give up and their value (solid starter at a minimum, potential PB caliber player) its not cheaper.

 

[skinsdad62]

If you traded for KC right now it would be cheaper and the 49ers would be a better team which could win 6-8 games this year. So that would equate to the #16-19 overall pick. So why wait and risk another team bidding for his services in FA? When you can lock him up cheaper and give up a mid first round pick? Kc is not worth a mid first round pick to you guys? Sure you can gamble but the risk outweighs the reward. If Kyle really want him to start his head coach career why should a mid first round pick matter? Or even a 10-15 pick. Why should it matter? You never know what team could jump in next year. You cant deny that its a risk by waiting.

why not simply wait ? dont lose ant picks and keep that resource for themselves because cap space isnt an issue for the 49ers in any bidding war

 

[Buffalo_Nickel_1]

are oline is good and kirk still can not win 10 plus games but he wants to be the highest paid and some people are for this lol

 

[skinsdad62]

Exactly. I was hoping Dean might think this thru and come to this realization. Once you figure in the picks you give up and their value (solid starter at a minimum, potential PB caliber player) its not cheaper.

he wont because he is pushing a false narrative . he wants KC gone no matter what

 

[skinsdad62]

are oline is good and kirk still can not win 10 plus games but he wants to be the highest paid and some people are for this lol

coach our defense sucks and has sucked . the team SM took over was rebuilding . the fact is the team is ahead of schedule . again do some research and learn about the economic situation in the NFL now becasue apparently you are stuck in the 90's

 

[Buffalo_Nickel_1]

give me skin oline with lets say rookie
rudolph thats 8-10 wins wait thats kirks avg plus cheaper = good business

 

[Sharkinva]

he wont because he is pushing a false narrative . he wants KC gone no matter what

I think thats to simplistic of his view.

He really wants Cousins gone, but he also wants to figure out some way to add draft capitol for us to be in the trade up position. SSee if we deal Cousins, and he does well else where.. but we got one of these pimp new rookie QBs in the bargain, well he could say we got our man.

But if COusins walks for nothing, does well elsewhere AND we end up eating extra draft cost to get one of these pimp new toys... well that wouldnt look so sexy.

 

[Buffalo_Nickel_1]

coach our defense sucks and has sucked . the team SM took over was rebuilding . the fact is the team is ahead of schedule . again do some research and learn about the economic situation in the NFL now becasue apparently you are stuck in the 90's

if kirk was way above avg that should have not matter because we be scoring alot of td instead of fieldgoals

 

[skinsdad62]

I think thats to simplistic of his view.

He really wants Cousins gone, but he also wants to figure out some way to add draft capitol for us to be in the trade up position. SSee if we deal Cousins, and he does well else where.. but we got one of these pimp new rookie QBs in the bargain, well he could say we got our man.

But if COusins walks for nothing, does well elsewhere AND we end up eating extra draft cost to get one of these pimp new toys... well that wouldnt look so sexy.

well i see your point because no one can be that dumb about a trade

 

[skinsdad62]

if kirk was way above avg that should have not matter because we be scoring alot of td instead of fieldgoals

2 words , sonny jurgensen

 

[skinsdad62]

if kirk was way above avg that should have not matter because we be scoring alot of td instead of fieldgoals

well as i have shown above he is in fact above avg by the numbers

 

[j_y19]

I think thats to simplistic of his view.

He really wants Cousins gone, but he also wants to figure out some way to add draft capitol for us to be in the trade up position. SSee if we deal Cousins, and he does well else where.. but we got one of these pimp new rookie QBs in the bargain, well he could say we got our man.

But if COusins walks for nothing, does well elsewhere AND we end up eating extra draft cost to get one of these pimp new toys... well that wouldnt look so sexy.

And who in the 2018 draft is worth that?

 

[Sharkinva]

2 words , sonny jurgensen

IN my best Coach impression


WHAT DOES THE OLD GUY WHO DOES OUR BROADCASTS HAVE TO DO WITH THIS SONNY WAS FROM A TIME BEFORE MAN INVENTED THE WHEEL AND HE WOULD SUCK IN TODAYS NFL BUT MAYBE WE SHOULD SIGN HIM BECAUSE ANYONE COULD WIN !) PLUS GAMES WITH OUR OLINE EXCPET COUSINS GREEDY ASS

 

[Sharkinva]

And who in the 2018 draft is worth that?

Any One But Cousins

But according to some, we need to go all in on Darnold even if it means tanking the season before it even starts.