Ravens/Bengals/Bills/Dolphins

[Brees#1]

I'm trying not to do stuff like this now, but as a big Burrow backer I have been constantly concerned how the road games at Buffalo, Miami, Green Bay, and Minnesota will turn out for both the Bengals and Ravens. I'm focusing on Buffalo and Miami here.

When I tried to work out the Bills and Dolphins' home games against the Ravens and Bengals, I came to a consensus it will be a 2-2 split. I don't think that the Ravens will win both games, and the Bengals win one. Ditto for the Bills winning both, and the Dolphins winning one but is more likely than the former. The matchups should have been 2-2 both at home and on the road(The Bengals were going to win that cancelled game) in four of the last five occurrences. All of these scenarios could play out

A. Bills beat both Ravens and Bengals. Dolphins lose both.
B.Bills beat Bengals, but lose to Ravens. Dolphins beat Bengals, but lose to Ravens.
C.Bills beat Ravens, but lose to Bengals. Dolphins beat Bengals, but lose to Ravens.
D.Bills beat Ravens, but lose to Bengals. Dolphins beat Ravens, but lose to Bengals.
E.Bills beat Bengals, but lose to Ravens. Dolphins beat Ravens, but lose to Bengals.

You have to go back to 2014 to find the last time the Bills lost two home games against an AFC or NFC division. The Dolphins haven't lost two home games to an AFC division since 2010.

It really feels to me the recent historical narrative would have leaned to C and D. Bengals have had the Bills' number. Dolphins have upset Lamar twice, and already beat him on Thursday night. Lamar is also not very good on short rest sometimes. Last year, the Ravens followed up MNF wins in TB and LAC with duds against Cleveland and Philadelphia. They followed up a blowout home win against Denver with a game they should have lost against the Bengals. I'm not getting into the Christmas game. At the same time, the Bengals haven't won in Miami since 2007 when the Dolphins were 1-15, and that was week 17. Ravens have been a Jekyll and Hyde team against the Dolphins, either losing to them or destroying them.


On a talent perspective, it's unlikely the Dolphins can beat the Ravens without a fatigue narrative, and I have the Dolphins winning four or five games. The Bengals defensive problems leave much to be desired, and I don't believe they can beat both the Bills and Dolphins. Can Josh Allen play with confidence against Joe Burrow's pourous defense barring a snow game? I think Tyreek Hill will be the Big problem as far as Miami is concerned. Joe doesn't lose after November/week 13 in the regular season but when you have the Bills and Ravens to start off with, that streak is bound to be snapped. This also would rule out D and E. C is still a possibility.

But it appears A and B are the strongest scenarios. If the Ravens win in Buffalo week 1, then that's going to say a lot about the Bengals/Bills game and the Bengals perhaps losing both games in Buffalo and Miami. Miami hasn't been swept at home but their recent home games have been against the Jaguars, Titans, Broncos, Raiders, Steelers, Browns, Colts, and Texans. None of those teams measure up to the Bengals and Ravens on the road, and we did see the Bengals and Ravens have a losing home record for the first time to a NFC or AFC division since 2002.

What say you?

 

[Xeliou66]

I would honestly be surprised if the Fins beat the Bills, Ravens or Bengals. The Fins secondary looks atrocious particularly if Ramsey is gone and I expect Allen/Burrow/Lamar to light them up. The only thing given the Fins a chance is they host the Ravens and Bengals (obviously they play the Bills both home and away), and the Fins are much better at home than on the road. The Fins might win 1 of the 4 games, if I had to pick one I would say it might be against the Ravens since it’s a Thursday game in Miami, but I think it’s likely the Fins lose them all.

As for Ravens/Bengals/Bills, who knows, if I had to pick at the moment I would say the Ravens and Bengals split their meetings while the Bills go 1-1 against the Bengals/Ravens, I could see the Bengals passing attack giving the Bills problems, as I think safety is probably the shakiest spot on the Bills D, but the Ravens have a more balanced offensive attack, and the Ravens demolished the Bills in Baltimore in the regular season last year with Henry gashing them, Bills obviously beat them in Buffalo in the playoffs and did somewhat better against Henry then. The Ravens have a much better D than the Bengals though, so it’s much more likely that Allen can light up the Bengals D than the Ravens D. The Bengals/Bills matchup looks like it might be more high scoring on paper but it’s in Buffalo in December so the weather could be a major factor, while the Ravens/Bills game is Week 1 on SNF. As for Ravens/Bengals, both games were very close last year, both heartbreaking losses for the Bengals, I have to think they’ll win at least 1 of their meetings this year, Ravens have a better D but they really struggled to stop Burrow in both meetings last season, Burrow really lit them up.

 

[Southieinnc]

I'm trying not to do stuff like this now, but as a big Burrow backer I have been constantly concerned how the road games at Buffalo, Miami, Green Bay, and Minnesota will turn out for both the Bengals and Ravens. I'm focusing on Buffalo and Miami here.

When I tried to work out the Bills and Dolphins' home games against the Ravens and Bengals, I came to a consensus it will be a 2-2 split. I don't think that the Ravens will win both games, and the Bengals win one. Ditto for the Bills winning both, and the Dolphins winning one but is more likely than the former. The matchups should have been 2-2 both at home and on the road(The Bengals were going to win that cancelled game) in four of the last five occurrences. All of these scenarios could play out

A. Bills beat both Ravens and Bengals. Dolphins lose both.
B.Bills beat Bengals, but lose to Ravens. Dolphins beat Bengals, but lose to Ravens.
C.Bills beat Ravens, but lose to Bengals. Dolphins beat Bengals, but lose to Ravens.
D.Bills beat Ravens, but lose to Bengals. Dolphins beat Ravens, but lose to Bengals.
E.Bills beat Bengals, but lose to Ravens. Dolphins beat Ravens, but lose to Bengals.

You have to go back to 2014 to find the last time the Bills lost two home games against an AFC or NFC division. The Dolphins haven't lost two home games to an AFC division since 2010.

It really feels to me the recent historical narrative would have leaned to C and D. Bengals have had the Bills' number. Dolphins have upset Lamar twice, and already beat him on Thursday night. Lamar is also not very good on short rest sometimes. Last year, the Ravens followed up MNF wins in TB and LAC with duds against Cleveland and Philadelphia. They followed up a blowout home win against Denver with a game they should have lost against the Bengals. I'm not getting into the Christmas game. At the same time, the Bengals haven't won in Miami since 2007 when the Dolphins were 1-15, and that was week 17. Ravens have been a Jekyll and Hyde team against the Dolphins, either losing to them or destroying them.


On a talent perspective, it's unlikely the Dolphins can beat the Ravens without a fatigue narrative, and I have the Dolphins winning four or five games. The Bengals defensive problems leave much to be desired, and I don't believe they can beat both the Bills and Dolphins. Can Josh Allen play with confidence against Joe Burrow's pourous defense barring a snow game? I think Tyreek Hill will be the Big problem as far as Miami is concerned. Joe doesn't lose after November/week 13 in the regular season but when you have the Bills and Ravens to start off with, that streak is bound to be snapped. This also would rule out D and E. C is still a possibility.

But it appears A and B are the strongest scenarios. If the Ravens win in Buffalo week 1, then that's going to say a lot about the Bengals/Bills game and the Bengals perhaps losing both games in Buffalo and Miami. Miami hasn't been swept at home but their recent home games have been against the Jaguars, Titans, Broncos, Raiders, Steelers, Browns, Colts, and Texans. None of those teams measure up to the Bengals and Ravens on the road, and we did see the Bengals and Ravens have a losing home record for the first time to a NFC or AFC division since 2002.

What say you?

Can you repeat that?