Series Thread: Rangers on the Road to Face Pirates May 22-24

[scotsman1948]

Are you feeling sarcastic again this morning?

No all of the earlier projections and even most of those today still project the Rangers finishing behind the Astros, the Angels and the Mariners in the West with those 3 battling it out for one maybe 2 postseason berths.

 

[Kelleyman]

I think our SP and potent offense are a threat come playoffs. In the postseason Heaney will have to throw relief due to limited SP on roster

We could easily be better come October barring injury

 

[scotsman1948]

From Jeff Wilson:

The Rangers announced that Kumar Rocker underwent Tommy John surgery Monday in Arlington. The surgery was performed by Dr. Keith Meister, and the Rangers expect Rocker will return next season in the second half.

Sorry hear that. It will slow down his projections by at least 18 months to 2 years

 

[DT LUNA]

I think our SP and potent offense are a threat come playoffs. In the postseason Heaney will have to throw relief due to limited SP on roster

We could easily be better come October barring injury

SP?

 

[Kelleyman]

SP is starting pitching. We bring 3-4 starters into each series pending length of series

 

[scotsman1948]

SP?

With a starting playoff rotation of deGrom, Eovaldi, Perez and Gray we could be a major force in the playoffs but unless we get very active between now and the trade deadline the bullpen will kill any chance of that happening

 

[saddles]

No all of the earlier projections and even most of those today still project the Rangers finishing behind the Astros, the Angels and the Mariners in the West with those 3 battling it out for one maybe 2 postseason berths.

If I am not mistaken, Fangraphs uses formulas to figure things like this, so the respect factor that you mentioned earlier is not included. Now, there is a lot of theory that goes into the construction of their formulas, but those theories are determined without regard to which team is going to do well in the rankings and which aren't.

They use something called ZiPS projections.

Definition. ZiPS is a system of player projections developed by FanGraph's Dan Szymborski when he was at Baseball Think Factory. According a Q&A on the Baseball Think Factory website, ZiPS uses growth and decline curves based on player type to find trends.

Per Szymborski: “ZiPS uses growth and decline curves based on player type to find trends. It then factors those trends into the past performance of those players to come up with projections. The system uses statistics from the previous four years for players from ages 24-38, and it weights more recent seasons heavier.

 

[scotsman1948]

If I am not mistaken, Fangraphs uses formulas to figure things like this, so the respect factor that you mentioned earlier is not included. Now, there is a lot of theory that goes into the construction of their formulas, but those theories are determined without regard to which team is going to do well in the rankings and which aren't.

They use something called ZiPS projections.

Definition. ZiPS is a system of player projections developed by FanGraph's Dan Szymborski when he was at Baseball Think Factory. According a Q&A on the Baseball Think Factory website, ZiPS uses growth and decline curves based on player type to find trends.

Per Szymborski: “ZiPS uses growth and decline curves based on player type to find trends. It then factors those trends into the past performance of those players to come up with projections. The system uses statistics from the previous four years for players from ages 24-38, and it weights more recent seasons heavier.

You are more tuned to these things than I am so I can’t argue with your points

 

[Kelleyman]

If I am not mistaken, Fangraphs uses formulas to figure things like this, so the respect factor that you mentioned earlier is not included. Now, there is a lot of theory that goes into the construction of their formulas, but those theories are determined without regard to which team is going to do well in the rankings and which aren't.

They use something called ZiPS projections.

Definition. ZiPS is a system of player projections developed by FanGraph's Dan Szymborski when he was at Baseball Think Factory. According a Q&A on the Baseball Think Factory website, ZiPS uses growth and decline curves based on player type to find trends.

Per Szymborski: “ZiPS uses growth and decline curves based on player type to find trends. It then factors those trends into the past performance of those players to come up with projections. The system uses statistics from the previous four years for players from ages 24-38, and it weights more recent seasons heavier.

That is correct about adding the ZIPs up but historically they seemed to skew the Mariners ahead since the original guy who for it started was Seattle based.
So to me it has been surprising to have them rank the Rangers high even though they deserve it.

Just don’t think it is as unbiased as they claim to be

 

[saddles]

You are more tuned to these things than I am so I can’t argue with your points

You are right in that some will not respect the Rangers when looking toward the postseason, but Fangraphs won't be one of them.

Now, as far as how accurate their formulas are at predicting things is a whole other topic. I think there are a good number of theories used by them and others to come up with some of the latest stats that are flawed. That is why I don't put a whole lot of stock in WAR being a great stat.

 

[saddles]

That is correct about adding the ZIPs up but historically they seemed to skew the Mariners ahead since the original guy who for it started was Seattle based.
So to me it has been surprising to have them rank the Rangers high even though they deserve it.

Just don’t think it is as unbiased as they claim to be

I think maybe their theories have some flaws more than I think they are biased.

 

[Kelleyman]

I think maybe their theories have some flaws more than I think they are biased.

Less now than in past IMO

 

[saddles]

Here are Fangraphs current projections for the AL West

 

[scotsman1948]

You are right in that some will not respect the Rangers when looking toward the postseason, but Fangraphs won't be one of them.

Now, as far as how accurate their formulas are at predicting things is a whole other topic. I think there are a good number of theories used by them and others to come up with some of the latest stats that are flawed. That is why I don't put a whole lot of stock in WAR being a great stat.

Again I can’t argue with this

 

[saddles]

The "death of catcher framing" should be something everyone wants. It is an embarrassment to umpires and the sport that catcher framing is even a thing. It is something the sport should be ashamed of.

 

[Kelleyman]

Here are Fangraphs current projections for the AL West

View attachment 329472

This makes it appear that the Angels have over performed. And the Rangers too by a lttle less

 

[saddles]

The Red Sox signed Kluber this past offseason as a rotation piece. They have just decided to move him to the bullpen. Maybe once deGrom gets stretched out, the Rangers will do the same thing with Heaney.

 

[saddles]

This makes it appear that the Angels have over performed. And the Rangers too by a lttle less

Duran and Jung doing well most likely makes it appear that way. Maybe even Perez to a lesser extent.

 

[DT LUNA]

The Red Sox signed Kluber this past offseason as a rotation piece. They have just decided to move him to the bullpen. Maybe once deGrom gets stretched out, the Rangers will do the same thing with Heaney.

I also believe they will.

 

[DT LUNA]

Duran and Jung doing well most likely makes it appear that way. Maybe even Perez to a lesser extent.

Good point.