Random FF Thoughts

[Shanemansj13]

it's all good boys, football season is right around the corner, so we'll get to see who's gut feelings and forward projections hit in the near future!!!

I guess my gut feeling is a stretch too so I can't really say anything

 

[TREFF]

it's all good boys, football season is right around the corner, so we'll get to see who's gut feelings and forward projections hit in the near future!!!

It ain't all good, nothing will be all good until Sept 10th at 8:20pm eastern

 

[TREFF]

I guess my gut feeling is a stretch too so I can't really say anything

Sure you can, you can say "I just believe", and say it with conviction
Just don't try and prove the basis of that conviction with facts that contradict it..

 

[Shanemansj13]

Sure you can, you can say "I just believe", and say it with conviction
Just don't try and prove the basis of that conviction with facts that contradict it..

Chubb will lead the league in rushing bc I have a gut feeling and I'm a huge homer.

 

[averagejoe]

it's all good boys, football season is right around the corner, so we'll get to see who's gut feelings and forward projections hit in the near future!!!

 

[Lamarvelous]

Again, you said he was 1st round pick worthy. I'll let you know if I ever see him taken in the 1st round bc it won't happen. You could be right and he could be an absolute stud but the odds aren't in your favor and that's the point here. Minimize risk. An 8 game sample in a 4 year career is not a large sample size to value him as a 1st round pick

he's a top-12 pick in FFPC best ball ADP and #13 overall on FFC's ADP list. But please, tell me again how he's never taken in the first round.

 

[Lamarvelous]

Sure you can, you can say "I just believe", and say it with conviction
Just don't try and prove the basis of that conviction with facts that contradict it..

Never once said it's a gut feeling. Provided stats to back up my position. What stats did I provide that contradict Kenyan Drake being a first round pick? The ones where he was tied with Alvin Kamara?

 

[Shanemansj13]

he's a top-12 pick in FFPC best ball ADP and #13 overall on FFC's ADP list. But please, tell me again how he's never taken in the first round.

I've done a lot of mock drafts, even ones where the guys wanna fuck around...Drake never went in the 1st.

I think most have in the tier 3 RB's. 2nd round.

 

[TREFF]

Well ya did it again, so Kudos to you for your conviction at least.

Tied in an obscure stat with a guy who didn't finish inside the top 12 at his position. And when that guy, Kamara, was a top 5 in '18, it wasnt his yardage that got him in the top 5. So what meaning does the stat have in actuality? Color me excited.

You want actual numbers on a guy who is currently teetering on the first round viability bubble?

You mentioned Mixon, quite literally the ONLY viable threat on his team last year. Had a rough season no doubts. He faces last years #1 defense in yards allowed, number 6 vs the run, his teammates give the Patriots the ball FIVE times, he still puts 136 on them at 5.4 a clip. THAT's what elite RB's do. Thats evidence to suggest hes worthy of a #1 pick.

 

[Shanemansj13]

Well ya did it again, so Kudos to you for your conviction at least.

Tied in an obscure stat with a guy who didn't finish inside the top 12 at his position. And when that guy, Kamara, was a top 5 in '18, it wasnt his yardage that got him in the top 5. So what meaning does the stat have in actuality? Color me excited.

You want actual numbers on a guy who is currently teetering on the first round viability bubble?

You mentioned Mixon, quite literally the ONLY viable threat on his team last year. Had a rough season no doubts. He faces last years #1 defense in yards allowed, number 6 vs the run, his teammates give the Patriots the ball FIVE times, he still puts 136 on them at 5.4 a clip. THAT's what elite RB's do. Thats evidence to suggest hes worthy of a #1 pick.

Sold me. I'm in. Hearing Burrow is looking GREAT in camp...could help Mixon even more.

 

[Shanemansj13]

Just wanted to see everyone's opinions on these RB's according to their ADP. For the sake of the argument this is a 12 man league

What RB's do you: LOVE/HATE/NEUTRAL

Nick Chubb - RB7-ADP9 -
Joe Mixon - RB8-ADP10 -
Josh Jacobs - RB9-ADP12 -
CEH - RB10-ADP14 -
Aaron Jones - RB11-ADP15 -
Miles Sanders - RB12-ADP21 -
Kenyan Drake - RB13-ADP22 -
Austin Ekeler - RB14-ADP26 -
Todd Gurley - RB15-ADP29 -
Leonard Fournette - RB16-ADP31 -
Chris Carson - RB17-ADP32 -
Jonathan Taylor - RB18-ADP34 -
David Johnson - RB19-ADP41 -
Le'Veon Bell - RB20-ADP44 -
Melvin Gordon - RB21-ADP45 -
Raheem Mostert - RB22-ADP46 -

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Nick Chubb - RB7-ADP9 - love
Joe Mixon - RB8-ADP10 - hate
Josh Jacobs - RB9-ADP12 - love
CEH - RB10-ADP14 - hate
Aaron Jones - RB11-ADP15 - love
Miles Sanders - RB12-ADP21 - neutral
Kenyan Drake - RB13-ADP22 - hate
Austin Ekeler - RB14-ADP26 - neutral
Todd Gurley - RB15-ADP29 - hate
Leonard Fournette - RB16-ADP31 - neutral
Chris Carson - RB17-ADP32 - love
Jonathan Taylor - RB18-ADP34 - love
David Johnson - RB19-ADP41 - hate
Le'Veon Bell - RB20-ADP44 - neutral
Melvin Gordon - RB21-ADP45 - neutral
Raheem Mostert - RB22-ADP46 - neutral

harder to say love or hate on the guys when you start getting into the 20s. Sure, any of them could easily finish as an RB2 on the year, but sheesh, give me some WRs in that range during my drafts

 

[Shanemansj13]

Nick Chubb - RB7-ADP9 - love
Joe Mixon - RB8-ADP10 - hate
Josh Jacobs - RB9-ADP12 - love
CEH - RB10-ADP14 - hate
Aaron Jones - RB11-ADP15 - love
Miles Sanders - RB12-ADP21 - neutral
Kenyan Drake - RB13-ADP22 - hate
Austin Ekeler - RB14-ADP26 - neutral
Todd Gurley - RB15-ADP29 - hate
Leonard Fournette - RB16-ADP31 - neutral
Chris Carson - RB17-ADP32 - love
Jonathan Taylor - RB18-ADP34 - love
David Johnson - RB19-ADP41 - hate
Le'Veon Bell - RB20-ADP44 - neutral
Melvin Gordon - RB21-ADP45 - neutral
Raheem Mostert - RB22-ADP46 - neutral

harder to say love or hate on the guys when you start getting into the 20s. Sure, any of them could easily finish as an RB2 on the year, but sheesh, give me some WRs in that range during my drafts

Yeah it's difficult, like you said especially in the 3-4-5 rounds. If you take 2 RB's early then you are looking for WR's. I'm sure most of these guys are neutral. Probably should have provided some sort of scenario or something

 

[Shanemansj13]

The most difficult picks for me so far, doing many mock drafts, is the 3-4 Round range.

I've been practicing the #10-12 draft slots and usually in the 3-4 round range these WR's come up:

Sutton
OBJ
AJ Brown
Ridley
Lockett
Woods
Kupp

How would you rank these WR's?

 

[TREFF]

Just wanted to see everyone's opinions on these RB's according to their ADP. For the sake of the argument this is a 12 man league

What RB's do you: LOVE/HATE/NEUTRAL

-

Nick Chubb - RB7-ADP9 - neutral, needs to at least meet lofty expectations to justify the pick, but certainly has the ability

Joe Mixon - RB8-ADP10 - love it, Burrows, AJ Green, Boyd, Higgins..should be able to easily improve on last seasons numbers-and those numbers nearly justify this spot already.

Josh Jacobs - RB9-ADP12 - neutral, Oakland revamped the entire skill position roster, except the QB. Overfilled the RB room, which always makes me raise a red flag. But, kid is legit and hopefully won't play half the season with a shoulder injury, which all by itself should be good enough to justify the spot. Even a mild increase in passing game usage would be a huge bonus, but its a believe it when I see it thing, not something I want to gamble on.

CEH - RB10-ADP14 - hate it. I'm not at all buying that Andy Reid is going to trust Mahommes' health to a rookie not known for pass pro on a regular basis. At least not early on. And I'm not sold on his talent running between the tackles either.

Aaron Jones - RB11-ADP15 - love it. Seems as the Pack is transitioning away from Rodgers arm, and to a little more run game. AJ Dillon's addition, and Jones's own propensity for finding the bench every so often are concerns, but the kid produces.

Miles Sanders - RB12-ADP21 - neutral. If he were higher, I'd hate it. Doesn't seem to have the "it" factor a lead back needs IMHO, with my eye test. But, at this slot, thats built in.

Kenyan Drake - RB13-ADP22 - lol..22? I thought he was 11-12-13th?? . At 22, sure why not? Neutral, tons of upside, only real downside is if Chase Edmonds outplays him...which is a possibility.

Austin Ekeler - RB14-ADP26 - hate it. Not buying into the LAC offense without Rivers until I see it, and I have a hard time buying a scat back being the go to guy without a legit threat at QB throwing the ball. And no, I don't consider %95 of rookie QB's to be a "legit" threat

Todd Gurley - RB15-ADP29 -neutral. His expected "managed workload" is included at this price. Would love it, but lord knows how long those knees hold out.

Leonard Fournette - RB16-ADP31 shLove it. No in the league is a higher percentage of his team's offense..except maybe Henry..I didn't do the math. And Armstead and Ozigbo haven't shown that they're a threat. Plus hes playing for a contract, open audition to all 32 teams, could be a perfect storm, in a good way.

Chris Carson - RB17-ADP32 - kinda love it. Little hesitant to assume hes good to go right away, but, once a full go, Hyde is a minor speed bump and Penny is a non factor for a minimum of half the year, likely 2/3's.

Jonathan Taylor - RB18-ADP34 - neutral. Hes my top rookie RB in a redraft, but hes not alone in that backfield.

David Johnson - RB19-ADP41 -love it. I'm one of the few who think DJ still has a couple seasons of greatness in him. Just don't think his game and Kingsbury's air raid meshed, simple as that.

Le'Veon Bell - RB20-ADP44 - what's not to like? I'd take him earlier than this

Melvin Gordon - RB21-ADP45 - hate it. Too much in flux in Denver. Local guys were speculating that Lindsay MAY be the early down back, with Gordon being the "passing back"

Raheem Mostert - RB22-ADP46-hate it. Talk about too much "in flux", theres no way I wanna depend a SF back as anything but a reserve bye week fillin

 

[Shanemansj13]

Nick Chubb - RB7-ADP9 - neutral, needs to at least meet lofty expectations to justify the pick, but certainly has the ability

Joe Mixon - RB8-ADP10 - love it, Burrows, AJ Green, Boyd, Higgins..should be able to easily improve on last seasons numbers-and those numbers nearly justify this spot already.

Josh Jacobs - RB9-ADP12 - neutral, Oakland revamped the entire skill position roster, except the QB. Overfilled the RB room, which always makes me raise a red flag. But, kid is legit and hopefully won't play half the season with a shoulder injury, which all by itself should be good enough to justify the spot. Even a mild increase in passing game usage would be a huge bonus, but its a believe it when I see it thing, not something I want to gamble on.

CEH - RB10-ADP14 - hate it. I'm not at all buying that Andy Reid is going to trust Mahommes' health to a rookie not known for pass pro on a regular basis. At least not early on. And I'm not sold on his talent running between the tackles either.

Aaron Jones - RB11-ADP15 - love it. Seems as the Pack is transitioning away from Rodgers arm, and to a little more run game. AJ Dillon's addition, and Jones's own propensity for finding the bench every so often are concerns, but the kid produces.

Miles Sanders - RB12-ADP21 - neutral. If he were higher, I'd hate it. Doesn't seem to have the "it" factor a lead back needs IMHO, with my eye test. But, at this slot, thats built in.

Kenyan Drake - RB13-ADP22 - lol..22? I thought he was 11-12-13th?? . At 22, sure why not? Neutral, tons of upside, only real downside is if Chase Edmonds outplays him...which is a possibility.

Austin Ekeler - RB14-ADP26 - hate it. Not buying into the LAC offense without Rivers until I see it, and I have a hard time buying a scat back being the go to guy without a legit threat at QB throwing the ball. And no, I don't consider %95 of rookie QB's to be a "legit" threat

Todd Gurley - RB15-ADP29 -neutral. His expected "managed workload" is included at this price. Would love it, but lord knows how long those knees hold out.

Leonard Fournette - RB16-ADP31 shLove it. No in the league is a higher percentage of his team's offense..except maybe Henry..I didn't do the math. And Armstead and Ozigbo haven't shown that they're a threat. Plus hes playing for a contract, open audition to all 32 teams, could be a perfect storm, in a good way.

Chris Carson - RB17-ADP32 - kinda love it. Little hesitant to assume hes good to go right away, but, once a full go, Hyde is a minor speed bump and Penny is a non factor for a minimum of half the year, likely 2/3's.

Jonathan Taylor - RB18-ADP34 - neutral. Hes my top rookie RB in a redraft, but hes not alone in that backfield.

David Johnson - RB19-ADP41 -love it. I'm one of the few who think DJ still has a couple seasons of greatness in him. Just don't think his game and Kingsbury's air raid meshed, simple as that.

Le'Veon Bell - RB20-ADP44 - what's not to like? I'd take him earlier than this

Melvin Gordon - RB21-ADP45 - hate it. Too much in flux in Denver. Local guys were speculating that Lindsay MAY be the early down back, with Gordon being the "passing back"

Raheem Mostert - RB22-ADP46-hate it. Talk about too much "in flux", theres no way I wanna depend a SF back as anything but a reserve bye week fillin

Agree with pretty much all of this.

 

[averagejoe]

Just wanted to see everyone's opinions on these RB's according to their ADP. For the sake of the argument this is a 12 man league

What RB's do you: LOVE/HATE/NEUTRAL

Nick Chubb - RB7-ADP9 - too risky for me (7th off the board) not knowing Hunt's impact.
Joe Mixon - RB8-ADP10 - migraine or holdout? this better resolve itself before I draft in 2 weeks.
Josh Jacobs - RB9-ADP12 - starting to like him more. concern he missed time but rookies are not used to a 16-game season.
CEH - RB10-ADP14 - combine numbers say he is too short and too slow. don't care if it is KC.
Aaron Jones - RB11-ADP15 - neutral
Miles Sanders - RB12-ADP21 - saw a stat that RB under Peterson have not gotten consistent touches to be a bellcow.
Kenyan Drake - RB13-ADP22 - nope
Austin Ekeler - RB14-ADP26 - small body of work, but like him. trying to decide if Tyrod (& not Rivers) hurts him.
Todd Gurley - RB15-ADP29 - neutral
Leonard Fournette - RB16-ADP31 - no one behind him and Gruden does historically make offenses better.
Chris Carson - RB17-ADP32 - hip a concern. Hyde a concern. but this team runs a ton.
Jonathan Taylor - RB18-ADP34 - too high a pick for a guy who has to unseat Mack.
David Johnson - RB19-ADP41 - 434 rushing attempts up for grabs is a bargain here.
Le'Veon Bell - RB20-ADP44 - on of the few backs to average more than 20 touches a game. plus 3 new O-linemen.
Melvin Gordon - RB21-ADP45 - meh
Raheem Mostert - RB22-ADP46 - like the kid but don't trust the coach. not enough to make him my RB2.

 

[leftypower]

harder to say love or hate on the guys when you start getting into the 20s. Sure, any of them could easily finish as an RB2 on the year, but sheesh, give me some WRs in that range during my drafts

Shocking statement coming from you. .....

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Nick Chubb - RB7-ADP9 -Love it, not scared of Hunt
Joe Mixon - RB8-ADP10 -Neutral- wold be love it, but for what looks like a hold out
Josh Jacobs - RB9-ADP12 -Hate it - If his ADP was like 20 might be OK with it
CEH - RB10-ADP14 -Hate it-he's not special
Aaron Jones - RB11-ADP15 -Hate it
Miles Sanders - RB12-ADP21 -Neutral
Kenyan Drake - RB13-ADP22 -Neutral
Austin Ekeler - RB14-ADP26 -Neutral
Todd Gurley - RB15-ADP29 -Hate it
Leonard Fournette - RB16-ADP31 -Neutral
Chris Carson - RB17-ADP32 -Love it
Jonathan Taylor - RB18-ADP34 -Love it
David Johnson - RB19-ADP41 -Love it-Hope I'm not forced to draft him though
Le'Veon Bell - RB20-ADP44 -Love it
Melvin Gordon - RB21-ADP45 -Hate it
Raheem Mostert - RB22-ADP46 -Hate it

 

[averagejoe]

Todd Gurley - RB15-ADP29 -Hate it

Is it the arthritic knee? Or something else?