Random FF Thoughts

[TREFF]

Only played 2 full games last yr, both the games where he threw over 200yds, avg ~25pts/gm for fantasy in those games

Only 5 QBs avg over 20/gm, zero of them hit 25, Josh Allen was QB1 at 24pts/gm

Highest tested QB athlete in combine history with a HC that knows how to tap into his skill set.

Can't expect everyone to be scared to take on the risk when the upside is sky high

But explaining the reasons/ excuses as to why it's really only 18ppg, only proves the point.. the guy can't stay on the feild. 4 games active and he couldn't even finish half those??

No spank you

 

[SmokingMonkey]

But explaining the reasons/ excuses as to why it's really only 18ppg, only proves the point.. the guy can't stay on the feild. 4 games active and he couldn't even finish half those??

No spank you

I'm old enough to remember when people avoided McCaffrey in drafts cause they were more worried about his injury history than his upside

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Hate this phrase.
Taking him early, his downside could conversely be catpstrophic.

Is there a single NFL player who's downside isn't catastrophic?

Every players downside is getting hurt and missing games, but only a handful of guys out there with the upside to score over 20pts/game every week

We're all making our best guesses this time of year, if you only base your draft decisions on last year's stats and/or injury history, I don't think you're playing this game with the best strategy to win.

I could probably make a case for and against drafting every player in the league with the exception of a few

 

[Bandit]

I never watch pre-season games either. I did when they mattered. Now there's nothing that happens in pre-season that I can't read about in fantasy news the next day. All that really matters is number of snaps played with the starters. The rest of it is hype and nonsense.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Just checked and confirmed, ppl are still drafting Jefferson in the 1st round this year even tho he got hurt and didn't play a full season

Don't they realize he could get hurt again?

 

[averagejoe]

Its not like i am cheering against Richardson.
But a small body of work is usually not the tell-all be-all of a player.

There are a few QB that start out hot but het cold. RG3, Kapernick, even Trubisky had a decent rookie season.

Teams study the film and suddenly they defensively are more ready in season 2. Just wonder if Stroud owners are ready less production too?

 

[TREFF]

I'm old enough to remember when people avoided McCaffrey in drafts cause they were more worried about his injury history than his upside

True, but he actually proved people wrong not missing a game for 3 straight years, Richardson, this far at least, has only proven the naysayers to be correct

 

[TREFF]

Just checked and confirmed, ppl are still drafting Jefferson in the 1st round this year even tho he got hurt and didn't play a full season

Don't they realize he could get hurt again?

Well everyone CAN get hurt at any given moment. QB's who can't/ won't stay in the pocket, are historically proven to be at greater risk than most

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Its not like i am cheering against Richardson.
But a small body of work is usually not the tell-all be-all of a player.

There are a few QB that start out hot but het cold. RG3, Kapernick, even Trubisky had a decent rookie season.

Teams study the film and suddenly they defensively are more ready in season 2. Just wonder if Stroud owners are ready less production too?

Stroud is already getting drafted as if he avg over 20pts/gm last year, ADP ahead of Hurts?!?!?

 

[TREFF]

Its not like i am cheering against Richardson.
But a small body of work is usually not the tell-all be-all of a player.

There are a few QB that start out hot but het cold. RG3, Kapernick, even Trubisky had a decent rookie season.

Teams study the film and suddenly they defensively are more ready in season 2. Just wonder if Stroud owners are ready less production too?

Stroud is already getting drafted as if he avg over 20pts/gm last year, ADP ahead of Hurts?!?!?

View attachment 371507

Yeah, I do and I don't get the love for Stroud.
I fully expect his numbers overall to increase. I can't see why not, everything around him improved, on paper.

BUT

From a fantasy perspective, his numbers weren't that great anyways. Yards were nice, TD's were meh at best. So I mean, is it realistic to expect 10+ more tds and 500-700 more yards? Seems a bit of a stretch.
Possible, fer sure, but a stretch. And yes, he could easily hit a soph slump and everything goes down

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Well everyone CAN get hurt at any given moment. QB's who can't/ won't stay in the pocket, are historically proven to be at greater risk than most

Not sure the truth of it, but saw something in the twittersphere that had data supporting that designed QB runs (like how Steichen developed Hurts) have a lower injury rate than QBs getting knocked down or sacked in the pocket, or something of that nature.

It is without a doubt a very real risk to weigh into your draft decision. What if that peep show we got last year was his future floor?

Back to @averagejoe original question, drafters are taking that chance in the 5th/6th (or maybe 4th if they're nuts or there's favorable scoring system) to hope they hit on a QB that gets a game changing 30pts regularly with enough rushing floor to prevent down weeks from killing your. If not, you trade for someone who's stashing a QB you like or you stream at one of the easiest positions to stream in leagues with 5 or less bench spots. They aren't marrying the kid, they can cut bait anytime after gambling on draft day.

 

[TREFF]

Not sure the truth of it, but saw something in the twittersphere that had data supporting that designed QB runs (like how Steichen developed Hurts) have a lower injury rate than QBs getting knocked down or sacked in the pocket, or something of that nature.

It is without a doubt a very real risk to weigh into your draft decision. What if that peep show we got last year was his future floor?

Back to @averagejoe original question, drafters are taking that chance in the 5th/6th (or maybe 4th if they're nuts or there's favorable scoring system) to hope they hit on a QB that gets a game changing 30pts regularly with enough rushing floor to prevent down weeks from killing your. If not, you trade for someone who's stashing a QB you like or you stream at one of the easiest positions to stream in leagues with 5 or less bench spots. They aren't marrying the kid, they can cut bait anytime after gambling on draft day.

I'd say there's certainly some truth to that. Cam, Josh Allen, Lamar, Hurts, they rarely got dinged on stuff designed for them to run. Blocking is in place, often designed around the edge with an escape to the sideline it works

 

[wilwhite]

Is there a single NFL player who's downside isn't catastrophic?

Every players downside is getting hurt and missing games, but only a handful of guys out there with the upside to score over 20pts/game every week

We're all making our best guesses this time of year, if you only base your draft decisions on last year's stats and/or injury history, I don't think you're playing this game with the best strategy to win.

I could probably make a case for and against drafting every player in the league with the exception of a few

I guess there's a question (@averagejoe) about whether a player missing games in the previous couple of seasons is a predictor for missing games the following season.

 

[averagejoe]

I guess there's a question (@averagejoe) about whether a player missing games in the previous couple of seasons is a predictor for missing games the following season.

Not it.

Spoiler

Not looking it up.

 

[averagejoe]

But i guess this stems from a discussion maybe a decade ago where stats essentially revealed that your typical #1-ranked QB was really not drastically far from the #10 or #12-ranked QB.

The difference may be 4 or 5 pts per week. And, sure, 5 pts can be the difference in a losing week, but multiple QB missed games last season due to injury so the weekly averages are more or less skewed.

My point is, if an owner drafts a QB from rounds 1-5 then he is potentially missing more elite skill players whose fantasy point drop-off is greater than a lower-tiered QB.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

My point is, if an owner drafts a QB from rounds 1-5 then he is potentially missing more elite skill players whose fantasy point drop-off is greater than a lower-tiered QB.

 

[TREFF]

Not it.

Spoiler

Not looking it up.

 

[Shanemansj13]

PFR says he scored 73 pts in 4 games, so 18.25

obviously it dpends on your scoring system. But I'm not exactly impressed.
2 games at 200-225 yards, 2 games below 100, and 3 scores.

his rushing numbers were stupid with 5 scores in 4 games, but they also got him killed, so it doesn't really matter much. You bank on a QB whose rushing numbers are his 'claim to fame', you're only waiting for the inevitable to happen, unless his name is Josh Allen. You can claim Lamar, but he's only played one full season in his career (last year- inactive wk 17, but not hurt)

I think there are a couple options where ARich is attractive.
Dynasty bc why not? He is a dynamic runner and he should score quite a bit of RZ rushing TD’s.
Deep league. 16 teamer possibly. Worth a shot if you need a QB and your plan was to wait late.
Before I own ARich I need to see vast improvement in his passing game and see him on the field. I will own zero stock in him unless it’s a later round dynasty draft start-up….which isn’t happening for me regardless

 

[Chef99]

Y'all dismissing Jordan Love.

I hate the Packers, but there is no hate in fantasy.

Well, maybe there is, but you get what I'm sayin'.

 

[TREFF]

I think there are a couple options where ARich is attractive.
Dynasty bc why not? He is a dynamic runner and he should score quite a bit of RZ rushing TD’s.
Deep league. 16 teamer possibly. Worth a shot if you need a QB and your plan was to wait late.
Before I own ARich I need to see vast improvement in his passing game and see him on the field. I will own zero stock in him unless it’s a later round dynasty draft start-up….which isn’t happening for me regardless

Oh sure, I ain't saying he shouldn't be taken or in a roster, just that I sure wouldn't bank on him being your QB come playoff time. You'd better have a reliable plan B.. which given the cost of taking Richardson to start with, seems like a big investment at the position