Random FF Thoughts

[Bandit]

I mean at this point you are pretty much punting running back anyway. Do you have a quarterback? Is this a 16 team or keeper league? I'm just trying to figure out why these are the best running backs available in the 5th round and why it's 28 picks before you pick again.

 

[averagejoe]

I mean at this point you are pretty much punting running back anyway. Do you have a quarterback? Is this a 16 team or keeper league? I'm just trying to figure out why these are the best running backs available in the 5th round and why it's 28 picks before you pick again.

18-team guillotine
No bench (yet)

 

[averagejoe]

You may think i'm crazy, but QB will be my last starter (besides K and DST).
Looking at who may be left at 18.... Cousins, Staffors, Mayfield, Rodgers, Watson....

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Coming up on my round 5 pick.
18 team Guilltotine.
I have 3 WR and Engram.
I could go RB? After my pick, 8 of the teams have only 1 RB and could add a 2nd RB. I'd have to wait 28 picks to get back to me.
Here are the RB available.
Thoughts?

View attachment 366055

Since this is Guillotine, think I'd go Mostert or Harris.

Its plenty fun to joke about Arthur Smith, but if you think for one second that the PIT run game isn't going to be better with him calling the shots, you haven't been paying attention to football the past 4-5yrs. Dude knows how to run the ball in today's NFL, very few coaches out there do it better than him.

Mostert returning to same setup that saw him absolutely crush last year. Impossible to stack the box vs Tyreek/Waddle, McDaniels outside zone blocking scheme is deadly with their RB speed, and they run a ton in the red zone too. Achane doesn't seem like the red zone type either, could be wrong there, but I think Mostert leads the pack until he inevitably gets his annual injury.

Denver isn't a team I'd be targeting for guillotine, I'd say they're more likely to stink it up with Nix/Stidham and you just don't have the luxury of finding out in this format. You need guys that you know will be in the mix with opportunity to score TDs.

 

[TREFF]

You may think i'm crazy, but QB will be my last starter (besides K and DST).
Looking at who may be left at 18.... Cousins, Staffors, Mayfield, Rodgers, Watson....

Given the format, teams will only be taking one, so that's somewhat in your favor, but dang, the 16th, 17th, 18th best QB sure seems like a significant handicap, especially when it's one bad week and you're SOL

 

[Bandit]

Given the format, teams will only be taking one, so that's somewhat in your favor, but dang, the 16th, 17th, 18th best QB sure seems like a significant handicap, especially when it's one bad week and you're SOL

I'm with Treff here. I'd rather have the quarterback points than the points from the running backs that are left, but if you have to go running back I'd still go Harris. He's going to get 15 touches a game and I don't think you can say that about anybody else at this point. You can't draft Brooks, Chubb or Benson in Guillotine because you don't even know if they will get touches to start the season or even not be on the PUP and by the time they see any significant work you might be eliminated.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

I believe in landing a point producing QB as a priority over other positions when feasible and I agree Harris is a good bet at RB, Mostert also until his usual injury.

 

[Bandit]

Achane doesn't seem like the red zone type either, could be wrong there, but I think Mostert leads the pack until he inevitably gets his annual injury

Achane was pretty good in the red zone last year. Inside the 10 yard line Mostert was 13 for 33 in converting touchdowns (39%), Achane was 5 for 11 (45%). Inside the 5 yard line Mostert was 12 for 20 (60%) and Achane was 3 for 5 (60%). Smaller sample size obviously, but there are a lot of guys that get those carries and do nothing with them. For example, Tony Pollard was 4 for 29 (14%) inside of 10 yards and 2 of 16 (13%) inside of 5 yards. Even McCaffery was 11 for 34 (32%) from inside the 10 yard line and 9 of 18 (50%) from inside the 5. It will be interesting to see what the usage for Achane is this year in Miami. He's certainly getting drafted as if he's going to get at least 50% of the touches this year, but we will see. All the talk in camp is about getting him the ball as much as possible. Last year he played 43% of the snaps in the 11 games he was active. 1 of those games was week 2 when he barely saw the field and one was week 11 when he was hurt and barely saw the field, so I think if they are both healthy at the least it will be a 50/50 split to start the season, but will probably lean more toward Achane 55/45 as the season goes on. I don't think they want him to have more than about 15 touches a game regardless.

 

[averagejoe]

especially when it's one bad week and you're SOL

Looked back at week 1 of 2023.
Best 5 QB were Tua, Mac Jones, Richardson, Love and Watson.
Some of the worst (single digits) were Lamar, Dak and Burrow. Josh Allen only had 12 points.

 

[averagejoe]

Thanks guys. Leaning Harris.
Here's the remaining QB...

 

[averagejoe]

.... yes, I do have my eye on Cousins. After week 8 last year he was the 6th-best scoring QB.

Cousins has finished in the top 12 in QB scoring in 2020 (11th), 2021 (7th) and 2022 (11th) and was headed for a 4th consecutive top-12 finish until the Achilles.

I dont think that waiting on him is a handicap at all.

 

[TREFF]

Looked back at week 1 of 2023.
Best 5 QB were Tua, Mac Jones, Richardson, Love and Watson.
Some of the worst (single digits) were Lamar, Dak and Burrow. Josh Allen only had 12 points.

Well sure. The sun shine on dogs' asses from time to time, and not on others when it usually does.

 

[TREFF]

.... yes, I do have my eye on Cousins. After week 8 last year he was the 6th-best scoring QB.

Cousins has finished in the top 12 in QB scoring in 2020 (11th), 2021 (7th) and 2022 (11th) and was headed for a 4th consecutive top-12 finish until the Achilles.

I dont think that waiting on him is a handicap at all.

I like the Atl skill group, I do, and i do expect a solid year for Cousins..but... none of those Atlanta boys are Justin Jefferson though

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Achane was pretty good in the red zone last year. Inside the 10 yard line Mostert was 13 for 33 in converting touchdowns (39%), Achane was 5 for 11 (45%). Inside the 5 yard line Mostert was 12 for 20 (60%) and Achane was 3 for 5 (60%). Smaller sample size obviously

Mostert is 20lbs heavier, got 2x as many red zone carries as Achane and 3x as many carries inside the 10, and 4x as many inside the 5. Volume is still king for RBs in fantasy, especially these high-value touches.

Their overall touches will prob be close to a 50/50 split but if he's healthy, Mostert will be favored in the red zone and his rushing efficiency is more likely to be repeated compared to Achane avg 7.8/att last year.

But as I said earlier, Mostert or Najee here would easily be my top 2 targets over a QB since Joe said he's waiting at that position

 

[averagejoe]

I like the Atl skill group, I do, and i do expect a solid year for Cousins..but... none of those Atlanta boys are Justin Jefferson though

Agreed. But Cousins was throwing for 4k in Washington and had a different WR lead the team each season. And none of them were Justin Jefferson either.

I know you probably think i'm nuts for targeting Cousins, but he is also a very predictable and steady producer imo which has to help in a league like this.

 

[TREFF]

Agreed. But Cousins was throwing for 4k in Washington and had a different WR lead the team each season. And none of them were Justin Jefferson either.

I know you probably think i'm nuts for targeting Cousins, but he is also a very predictable and steady producer imo which has to help in a league like this.

No, but they were DJax, Jordan Reed, Vernon Davis, Frenchie Garcon, and J. Crowder...and he was 28.

No not nuts at all..I just don't think he'll be there if you wait until he's the last starter you select. I would absolutely take Cousins in this format, as I'm sure many of your leaguemates would

 

[averagejoe]

I would absolutely take Cousins in this format, as I'm sure many of your leaguemates would

My leaguemates can be unpredictable. I think his Achilles injury will scare some away. And this is a Bears fanbase, so i figure Caleb goes at some point.

My backup plan is to take Rodgers. Jets open against WSH, CAR and the Giants.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

No, but they were DJax, Jordan Reed, Vernon Davis, Frenchie Garcon, and J. Crowder...and he was 28.

No not nuts at all..I just don't think he'll be there if you wait until he's the last starter you select. I would absolutely take Cousins in this format, as I'm sure many of your leaguemates would

Everyone only gets 1 QB to start, since no one can take a QB2 and force positional scarcity, I think there's a great chance he'll still be able to land Cousins later in the draft.

Only 9 or 10 teams left still to take one, not sure how many of those teams will pick 2x ahead of his next pick, but I could see a few guys planning the same strategy, just wait at QB and build out the starting lineup since they missed out on the top tier QBs

 

[TREFF]

Everyone only gets 1 QB to start, since no one can take a QB2 and force positional scarcity, I think there's a great chance he'll still be able to land Cousins later in the draft.

Only 9 or 10 teams left still to take one, not sure how many of those teams will pick 2x ahead of his next pick, but I could see a few guys planning the same strategy, just wait at QB and build out the starting lineup since they missed out on the top tier QBs

Oh sure, not NOW, but waiting until the final starter.. that's where it gets dicey. But it's not like one can't adjust if there's a little run and it's looking like the pickings will be thin

 

[averagejoe]

Not much has changed. 8 teams took a QB already so the list i posted above is still in play. If the remaining 9 owners follow the ADP queue, Cousins would be available.