QB options for next year

[flyerhawk]

One thing that seems clear to me is that something changed with regards to JS/MM and the QB position. They were being pretty coy for several weeks. Once they made the trade for Howell, they became very clear about the QB room. Geno was the starter and Sam was the backup.

IMO, I think JS was seriously looking at drafting someone but now thinks it is unlikely/too much of a risk to count on that player being available at 16. Whether it was McCarthy or Penix or Nix, who can say? It's possible that he will still take that player if they fall to the Hawks at 16 but if it is McCarthy, I think that has almost zero chance of happening.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

One thing that seems clear to me is that something changed with regards to JS/MM and the QB position. They were being pretty coy for several weeks. Once they made the trade for Howell, they became very clear about the QB room. Geno was the starter and Sam was the backup.

IMO, I think JS was seriously looking at drafting someone but now thinks it is unlikely/too much of a risk to count on that player being available at 16. Whether it was McCarthy or Penix or Nix, who can say? It's possible that he will still take that player if they fall to the Hawks at 16 but if it is McCarthy, I think that has almost zero chance of happening.

I still don't get the McCarthy hype. I know he won the national championship, but I think Harbaugh is quietly hyping the crap out of him to other organizations because they know he's not drafting a QB and I'm sure he's been contacted asking about him (even before he was the HC of LA), but the potential someone moves up to #5 means he gets a TON of draft capital OR another great scenario is someone moves up to #4 to take McCarthy in which case CHA-CHING, Harrison Jr.

Harbaugh is in IMO the PERFECT spot.

 

[flyerhawk]

I still don't get the McCarthy hype. I know he won the national championship, but I think Harbaugh is quietly hyping the crap out of him to other organizations because they know he's not drafting a QB and I'm sure he's been contacted asking about him (even before he was the HC of LA), but the potential someone moves up to #5 means he gets a TON of draft capital OR another great scenario is someone moves up to #4 to take McCarthy in which case CHA-CHING, Harrison Jr.

Harbaugh is in IMO the PERFECT spot.

I can tell you why there is hype.

He just turned 21
He was 29-1 as a starter
He has was top in QBR this season
He was top 5 in completion %
He's a 4.6 40 athlete
By all accounts he is one of the most level headed kids in the draft.

A lot of fans looked at his stats and feel underwhelmed. A lot of coaches actually like that was willing to play within the system and execute effectively when asked to.

Of course there are a lot of risks with him but you could argue he has the most upside of any QB in this class.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

IMO, I think JS was seriously looking at drafting someone but now thinks it is unlikely/too much of a risk to count on that player being available at 16.

Or they plan to trade down to pick up a second and want to see if a QB they like can be had with that second round pick. Howell is insurance in case that doesn't work out (likely doesn't work out). As for finally be clear that Geno the starter over Howell well with all the talk about them be ambiguous about who is the starter they felt it would be wise to be frank that Howell is the backup (for this year at least) because that is the plan and to keep Geno happy and cap the rumors of Howell competing for the starter job.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Taking a QB (which pretty much means Nix/Penix) seems like a reach for a position of need granted, but not an IMMEDIATE position of need.

That's the danger of having Geno, same for Giants with Jones or Jets with Rodgers or Saints with Carr there is always glaring holes in a roster and if you have a bridge QB it's always tempting to put off drafting a QB to fill a hole and the next year rinse and repeat. This is year 3 post RW and we are still repeating the same line, bet it is the same next season.

 

[flyerhawk]

Or they plan to trade down to pick up a second and want to see if a QB they like can be had with that second round pick. Howell is insurance in case that doesn't work out (likely doesn't work out). As for finally be clear that Geno the starter over Howell well with all the talk about them be ambiguous about who is the starter they felt it would be wise to be frank that Howell is the backup (for this year at least) because that is the plan and to keep Geno happy and cap the rumors of Howell competing for the starter job.

I think it is VERY unlikely that the Hawks will draft a QB in the middle rounds.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

I think it is VERY unlikely that the Hawks will draft a QB in the middle rounds.

Middle rounds? I would think not. In fact I think they aren't going to land a QB in the draft, but if they do I guessing Penix in the second round.

 

[flyerhawk]

That's the danger of having Geno, same for Giants with Jones or Jets with Rodgers or Saints with Carr there is always glaring holes in a roster and if you have a bridge QB it's always tempting to put off drafting a QB to fill a hole and the next year rinse and repeat. This is year 3 post RW and we are still repeating the same line, bet it is the same next season.

It probably will be the same next season. But the reality is that this team wasn't a Patrick Mahomes away from winning the Super Bowl last year. The defense was absolutely terrible.

The truth is that there was never a chance that the team was going to do the rebuild and draft a QB while Pete was HC. Which is why I was saying, after we traded Russ, that we should have punted on Pete as well and started fresh. But the team didn't do that.

Now we are in a spot where there are somewhere between 5-7 teams ahead of us that want/need QBs. So getting one of the top tier QBs is basically out the window. So if we really want to take a shot at a QB in this draft we are hoping for a winning lottery ticket. It can happen but the odds are not great.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

It probably will be the same next season. But the reality is that this team wasn't a Patrick Mahomes away from winning the Super Bowl last year. The defense was absolutely terrible.

The truth is that there was never a chance that the team was going to do the rebuild and draft a QB while Pete was HC. Which is why I was saying, after we traded Russ, that we should have punted on Pete as well and started fresh. But the team didn't do that.

Now we are in a spot where there are somewhere between 5-7 teams ahead of us that want/need QBs. So getting one of the top tier QBs is basically out the window. So if we really want to take a shot at a QB in this draft we are hoping for a winning lottery ticket. It can happen but the odds are not great.

Yah it's a weird position. Our team had enough talent in 2022 and Geno played well enough that we secured a playoff spot, but not only that - the 2022 QB class was ATROCIOUS (kind of what 2025 is looking to be). I remember a bunch of people had us drafting Malik in the 1st round LOL... then 2023 we probably could've made a move, but Houston seemed pretty dead set on Stroud, I don't think they would've traded... Richardson was also gone. Levis at #5? Ooof... course he was theere at #21... maybe that was our best chance?

And then in 2023, we happened to have enough talent to somehow get almost in the playoffs... and now because of the 2022 drought EVERYONE needs a QB... we have one that works (at least for next year) and MAYBE a hope in Howell... but that's about it.

Now the problem with Howell is if he comes in 2025 and just plays LIGHTS out, pro bowl, 4K yards, 30 TDs, etc... now you HAVE to extend him to big money and lose out on the 3 years of CHEAP contract... which I can understand Harold's concern on that...

So now you're kind of stuck like the 9ers will be with Purdy. Is it really the QB or the fact you assembled a great team around him that once the pieces start leaving... the QB production takes an epic nose dive? Look at Jimmy Garporlrorlrorlol (who of course dealt with injuries but still).

 

[jerseyhawksfan79]

You are one claiming a counter factual and arguing that NFL teams base their scouting media coverage.

You've invented a convoluted argument that a QB from North Carolina would get drafted above a QB from freaking Oregon, one of the most successful college programs of the last 20 years, because of media hype. You ignore that the ACC has an undefeated team that invented to the CBP playoff.

You ignore that Nix WAS a SEC QB. You ignore that he's 24. You assume any criticism of Penix or Nix is just East coast bias.

Honestly it is a bit weird how determined you are to die on this hill.

I do get a kick on how you think you're the smartest person in this forum.

Yes, common knowledge that Nix flamed out of Auburn with a .500 record and went to Oregon. I'm sure you thought was a ha ha got you there.

Yes, Drake Maye is going to be drafted top 3 before Bo Nix. Oregon is not a power house which I'm not sure you understand what "power house" means.

Funny you say I have east coast bias yet Penix who I rooted for is on the Huskies who I root for year in and year out. I'm sure you knew that.

Dumbest statement of the week goes to you for thinking I think NFL teams base their scouting through media coverage. Media hype is for us fans

Hey, let's keep the circus going with your next response.

 

[jerseyhawksfan79]

Alright fair enough. Pretty sure you've said that before, just re-clarifying. I guess you could always trade back as well and take Nix/Penix late 1st (for the 5th year option in the event they work) and collect another 2nd... I imagine that'd be your dream scenario.

Might be able to grab Penix late first but I think Nix will be off the board before mid 1st round.

 

[flyerhawk]

Yah it's a weird position. Our team had enough talent in 2022 and Geno played well enough that we secured a playoff spot, but not only that - the 2022 QB class was ATROCIOUS (kind of what 2025 is looking to be). I remember a bunch of people had us drafting Malik in the 1st round LOL... then 2023 we probably could've made a move, but Houston seemed pretty dead set on Stroud, I don't think they would've traded... Richardson was also gone. Levis at #5? Ooof... course he was theere at #21... maybe that was our best chance?

Yeah. To me drafting Levis just to draft someone wasn't all that desirable. Sometimes teams have to let the situation come to them and work with what they have.

And then in 2023, we happened to have enough talent to somehow get almost in the playoffs... and now because of the 2022 drought EVERYONE needs a QB... we have one that works (at least for next year) and MAYBE a hope in Howell... but that's about it.

Now the problem with Howell is if he comes in 2025 and just plays LIGHTS out, pro bowl, 4K yards, 30 TDs, etc... now you HAVE to extend him to big money and lose out on the 3 years of CHEAP contract... which I can understand Harold's concern on that...

So now you're kind of stuck like the 9ers will be with Purdy. Is it really the QB or the fact you assembled a great team around him that once the pieces start leaving... the QB production takes an epic nose dive? Look at Jimmy Garporlrorlrorlol (who of course dealt with injuries but still).

It's always a balancing act for almost every team save maybe 5 in the NFL.

 

[flyerhawk]

I do get a kick on how you think you're the smartest person in this forum.

Start off with the ad hominem.

Yes, common knowledge that Nix flamed out of Auburn with a .500 record and went to Oregon. I'm sure you thought was a ha ha got you there.

I would assume anyone posting in this group would know Nix and Penix's history.

Yes, Drake Maye is going to be drafted top 3 before Bo Nix. Oregon is not a power house which I'm not sure you understand what "power house" means.

When was the last time that North Carolina was ranked above Oregon? They are perennially a Top 10-15 team in the country. They aren't Alabama, Georgia or Michigan but they are a pretty huge football program and have been since Phil Knight invested in their program.

Funny you say I have east coast bias yet Penix who I rooted for is on the Huskies who I root for year in and year out. I'm sure you knew that.

Dumbest statement of the week goes to you for thinking I think NFL teams base their scouting through media coverage. Media hype is for us fans

Hey, let's keep the circus going with your next response.

At this point I don't think even you know what you are arguing.

I asked you why you think Penix and Nix are likely to be the 5th and 6th drafted QBs in this draft class. You said because the media has a bias against Pac-12 teams. Then you realized that the likely No. 1 pick was from a Pac-12 team and you shifted to some nebulous reasoning in which the University of North Carolina is a big time football college but the University of Oregon isn't. I'm actually impressed at your determination to die on this hill.

And how the hell did you infer that I was claiming you had an East Coast bias? What I said was "You clearly believe that both Penix and Nix are suffering from some East Coast bias".

We've both posted here a long time and I don't recall ever having a tussle with you in the past. But you clearly have some personal investment in Nix and Penix and antagonism towards McCarthy to the point of irrationality. No big deal. We all have things we are irrational about.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

I can tell you why there is hype.

He just turned 21
He was 29-1 as a starter
He has was top in QBR this season
He was top 5 in completion %
He's a 4.6 40 athlete
By all accounts he is one of the most level headed kids in the draft.

A lot of fans looked at his stats and feel underwhelmed. A lot of coaches actually like that was willing to play within the system and execute effectively when asked to.

Of course there are a lot of risks with him but you could argue he has the most upside of any QB in this class.

Fair points..

I guess age (just turning 21) was a reason that I thought it made sense in the 2nd round or late 1st round and sit to get some more experience and get a bit stronger. There's a lot of critique on his ability to go through progressions and decision making and all I can do is read scouting reports, or paid PFF content, etc.

I get the attraction because he was in a pro style offense that easily translates to the NFL, but I always thought he'd go LATE 1st or 2nd to a team where he could SIT for a year behind a more experienced QB to learn. I mean Minnesota isn't a complete dumpster fire of a team (decent OTs, elite WR, pretty good RBs pending Jones' health) so maybe that works.

If the Vikings trade up to #4 and just plug him in on day 1.... that's where I don't quite get the logic. I guess thinking through it, okay I get the 'hype' and potential there...

I just don't get the hype of him being top 5...

 

[DJ Fieri]

One thing that seems clear to me is that something changed with regards to JS/MM and the QB position. They were being pretty coy for several weeks. Once they made the trade for Howell, they became very clear about the QB room. Geno was the starter and Sam was the backup.

IMO, I think JS was seriously looking at drafting someone but now thinks it is unlikely/too much of a risk to count on that player being available at 16. Whether it was McCarthy or Penix or Nix, who can say? It's possible that he will still take that player if they fall to the Hawks at 16 but if it is McCarthy, I think that has almost zero chance of happening.

No way they take a QB in 1st round.

 

[DJ Fieri]

I can tell you why there is hype.

He just turned 21
He was 29-1 as a starter
He has was top in QBR this season
He was top 5 in completion %
He's a 4.6 40 athlete
By all accounts he is one of the most level headed kids in the draft.

A lot of fans looked at his stats and feel underwhelmed. A lot of coaches actually like that was willing to play within the system and execute effectively when asked to.

Of course there are a lot of risks with him but you could argue he has the most upside of any QB in this class.

McCarthy will be a career backup. A good one at that, but he just isn't a quality starter at the NFL level. You don't take a career backup in the 1st round.

 

[DJ Fieri]

Middle rounds? I would think not. In fact I think they aren't going to land a QB in the draft, but if they do I guessing Penix in the second round.

Penix in the 2nd round would be smart. Let him sit for a year and battle it out with Howell when Geno walks.

 

[flyerhawk]

Fair points..

I guess age (just turning 21) was a reason that I thought it made sense in the 2nd round or late 1st round and sit to get some more experience and get a bit stronger. There's a lot of critique on his ability to go through progressions and decision making and all I can do is read scouting reports, or paid PFF content, etc.

I get the attraction because he was in a pro style offense that easily translates to the NFL, but I always thought he'd go LATE 1st or 2nd to a team where he could SIT for a year behind a more experienced QB to learn. I mean Minnesota isn't a complete dumpster fire of a team (decent OTs, elite WR, pretty good RBs pending Jones' health) so maybe that works.

If the Vikings trade up to #4 and just plug him in on day 1.... that's where I don't quite get the logic. I guess thinking through it, okay I get the 'hype' and potential there...

I just don't get the hype of him being top 5...

I didn't really see him at a top 10 pick either. In large part because I think he will need a year on the bench.

But clearly NFL teams love the potential.

 

[flyerhawk]

McCarthy will be a career backup. A good one at that, but he just isn't a quality starter at the NFL level. You don't take a career backup in the 1st round.

Well clearly some NFL scouts disagree with you.

 

[DJ Fieri]

Well clearly some NFL scouts disagree with you.

My best friend is a huuuuuuge Michigan fan and he thinks he is at best, a game manager. Said he is probably a really good backup, but not a starter worthy of a 1st round pick.

NFL Scouts thought Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, Tim Couch, Matt Leinart, Vince Young, Brady Quinn, Joey Harrington, etc would be good.