QB options for next year

[Sharkonabicycle]

Also what do you guys mean by OJT? lol

 

[flyerhawk]

Yes indeed and with 53 million extra you have a shot at the talent.

Which teams are consistently good that spend a lot of money on free agents?

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Also what do you guys mean by OJT? lol

JSN

 

[flyerhawk]

Also what do you guys mean by OJT? lol

On the Job Training. I think that may have confused Harold.

There is no value in drafting a QB if all he is going to be is a journeyman. All you are doing is help him get playing time in order to get paid by some other team.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

Yes that's exactly what I would want. Don't think that's going to happen though.

Alright fair enough. Pretty sure you've said that before, just re-clarifying. I guess you could always trade back as well and take Nix/Penix late 1st (for the 5th year option in the event they work) and collect another 2nd... I imagine that'd be your dream scenario.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Which teams are consistently good that spend a lot of money on free agents?

We can see the pitfalls of signing vets like Carr, Jones and Geno which simply has a ceiling of being of being a fringe playoff team at best. In a way be in the middle not good but not terrible is maybe the worse situation to have.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

On the Job Training. I think that may have confused Harold.

There is no value in drafting a QB if all he is going to be is a journeyman. All you are doing is help him get playing time in order to get paid by some other team.

Okay that's what I thought you meant lol. That's the only thing with OJT I could think of which kind of made sense.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

There is no value in drafting a QB if all he is going to be is a journeyman.

Thing is you don't know if all he will be is a journeyman and you will be saving money to be spent at other positions.

 

[flyerhawk]

Alright fair enough. Pretty sure you've said that before, just re-clarifying. I guess you could always trade back as well and take Nix/Penix late 1st (for the 5th year option in the event they work) and collect another 2nd... I imagine that'd be your dream scenario.

I would be pretty happy if they traded to the late 1st, got a 2nd, and drafted Penix.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

Well the other side of it is, do you try to always take BPA (or if you really like a QB there, you take him) and build up a solid roster? The chance you get an ELITE QB is pretty hard to do. Even when you look at elite QBs a lot came into pretty successful organizations that had quite a bit of talent on the roster. Now the Bears are in a great position this year because they have a lot of talent, but just happened to luck out with Carolina shitting the bed. Whoever goes to NWE at least has a decent defense... my sympathies for whoever goes to the trainwreck that is Washington.

So, do you build up the roster with smart players/picks (lineman, EDGE, WRs are expensive too) or do you just swing for the QB fences every single 1st round and pray? I mean Mahomes, Rodgers came into a great situation with good rosters/FO moves, Allen had a great Bills team... yes their contribution has been a big part of the success of those teams... but still..

But you're telling me Brock Purdy is worth a mega contract and is the reason the 49ers are successful when he had one of the best defenses, elite receivers, an elite RB (who by some miracle stayed healthy all season), a decent OL and good coaching? Give me a break. He's a FRACTION of the reason they're successful. Most QBs would succeed in that program regardless of where they're drafted or acquired in free agency. Had the 9ers drafted Sam Howell he'd probably be just as good.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Alright fair enough. Pretty sure you've said that before, just re-clarifying. I guess you could always trade back as well and take Nix/Penix late 1st (for the 5th year option in the event they work) and collect another 2nd... I imagine that'd be your dream scenario.

Yes

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Well the other side of it is, do you try to always take BPA (or if you really like a QB there, you take him) and build up a solid roster? The chance you get an ELITE QB is pretty hard to do. Even when you look at elite QBs a lot came into pretty successful organizations that had quite a bit of talent on the roster. Now the Bears are in a great position this year because they have a lot of talent, but just happened to luck out with Carolina shitting the bed. Whoever goes to NWE at least has a decent defense... my sympathies for whoever goes to the trainwreck that is Washington.

So, do you build up the roster with smart players/picks (lineman, EDGE, WRs are expensive too) or do you just swing for the QB fences every single 1st round and pray? I mean Mahomes, Rodgers came into a great situation with good rosters/FO moves, Allen had a great Bills team... yes their contribution has been a big part of the success of those teams...

But you're telling me Brock Purdy is worth a mega contract and is the reason the 49ers are successful when he had one of the best defenses, elite receivers, an elite RB (who by some miracle stayed healthy all season), a decent OL and good coaching? Give me a break. He's a FRACTION of the reason they're successful. Most QBs would succeed in that program regardless of where they're drafted or acquired in free agency. Had the 9ers drafted Sam Howell he'd probably be just as good.

Purdy is going to put the 49ers in a tough position, think they should continue taking shots at the QB position to off set that.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

Yes

I mean I'd be fine with that lol. I think Nix/Penix (and McCarthy for that matter) are all reaches at 16... but a late 1st (for the 5th year option, just like Balti did with Jackson) I think is good. Maybe a slight reach but okay with it. Most mocks I've seen have it playing out that same way.

 

[flyerhawk]

Thing is you don't know if all he will be is a journeyman and you will be saving money to be spent at other positions.

Well of course you don't know that. But if that's what your scouts are saying, you have to trust them even if they may be wrong.

If your scouts are saying that player X is unlikely to be more than a replacement level player but you draft him anyway then you are engaging in wishcasting and not proper planning.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

Well of course you don't know that. But if that's what your scouts are saying, you have to trust them even if they may be wrong.

If your scouts are saying that player X is unlikely to be more than a replacement level player but you draft him anyway then you are engaging in wishcasting and not proper planning.

Kind of like that Carroll guy for about 5 years before control was relinquished in 2022 and Schneider said "We're not doing this anymore and taking BPA..."

 

[flyerhawk]

Kind of like that Carroll guy for about 5 years before control was relinquished in 2022 and Schneider said "We're not doing this anymore and taking BPA..."

Exactly right. IMO, the PC/JS regime always ran into trouble when they either drafted for need or tried to outsmart the league.

I don't think was a team in the NFL that drafted more running backs in the 1st 2 rounds than the Seahawks over the JS/PC era.

 

[JMR]

Successful NFL starters is subjective Teddy Bridgewater and Geno Smith both drafted at the end of the 1st/Early 2nd you could say are successful starters but I am sure the teams that drafted them would take that pick back to use on someone else if they could.

Ok, now I am not really sure if you have a salient point because I certainly never said "every" or even most QBs picked after rnd 1 are successful in the NFL. It's a mixed bag, as it is with QBs drafted at the top of rnd 1. When there's a crop of QBs as deep as it is this year, not getting taken in the top 15 picks isn't some huge referendum on that player's talent or NFL potential. That's my point.

 

[flyerhawk]

Ok, now I am not really sure if you have a salient point because I certainly never said "every" or even most QBs picked after rnd 1 are successful in the NFL. It's a mixed bag, as it is with QBs drafted at the top of rnd 1. When there's a crop of QBs as deep as it is this year, not getting taken in the top 15 picks isn't some huge referendum on that player's talent or NFL potential. That's my point.

I don't think where a player is drafted is that big a deal.

I do think that drafting the 5th or 6th QB available is more problematic than drafting the 2nd or 3rd. You are definitely fighting against the historical odds when you do that.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

Exactly right. IMO, the PC/JS regime always ran into trouble when they either drafted for need or tried to outsmart the league.

I don't think was a team in the NFL that drafted more running backs in the 1st 2 rounds than the Seahawks over the JS/PC era.

Well I don't mind drafting for needs, as long as the talent is there. Carroll at times would draft for needs (like OT, or DL, etc.) - premium positions, but he'd take like a late day 2 prospect in the 1st round lol. But because they were 'versatile' or 'had potential' or 'fit the system' he took them lol.

I mean this year we have a huge need at IOL, and it just so happens one of the BPAs at 16 will probably be... IOL. And a lot of the mid 1st rounder OTs actually project better to guard, even Powers-Johnson who is listed as a Center can play guard. So I don't mind versatile players, if you're taking the best one available that other teams would at the position. Carroll was infamous for doing these INSANE reaches lol. Course he seemed to find talent in later rounds, but still... used to always find it baffling.

Taking a QB (which pretty much means Nix/Penix) seems like a reach for a position of need granted, but not an IMMEDIATE position of need. Now I will not argue with anyone QB is the most important position in ALL of sports (at least mainstream ones) so there's probably more acceptance on reaches at that position because if you 'get lucky' your franchise might be set for 10 years... but still... in a year where we have a big need in IOL and it's a VERY strong IOL class, seems wasteful to reach at 16.

Now trading down to the latest first, acquiring a 2nd where you can still pick up a starting Guard, that's a little different. But who knows. I mean if Nix/Penix are both there at 16, we pass, and one turns out to be a future All Pro, then oof. But I agree with you that the % chance is low - to your original point. The % chance you take an IOL and they become a PB (at least) is a much higher %. And that was Carroll's problem. He drafted for a very specific need and reached, and often times it didn't work and we got stuck with players who were gone in 3-4 years.

And next year while the class is not as strong (at least for now) - I think there will be less teams looking for a QB. Granted someone will ALWAYS be looking for a QB... but outside of Arizona/New York - who have some ugly contracts to unload... not a lot of other teams out there.

Should be interesting.

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

We shouldn't forget that the Jets are possibly in the mix as well as Denver. That's 6 teams in need of a QB ahead of us. We will see how it all plays out on draft day but I doubt any of the guys being mentioned are even available. Of course, one of those QB needy teams could also reach for someone like Rattler or they could trade back and load up the rest of their roster because they don't like what they see. I'll trust whatever J.S. and the scouts want to do. And I think it's quite possible Sam Howell ends up being better than almost every QB in this class. If Geno falters this year or gets banged up, I like Howell a lot more than Drew Lock or most of these other kids to step in and take over and have success. Hell, he could actually compete for the job out of training camp and push Geno or even beat him out. That's a pretty good scenario in my book. I'm lowkey super happy about that trade because I never liked Lock and I think Howell has a much higher ceiling. And I'm very happy we didn't pursue Fields regardless of how cheap he came.