Please, no more CK7 vs. Smith debates

[Flyingiguana]

Awww, you crying bro?

crying about what? we're 2nd in the nfc wtf would i be crying about?

 

[Bemular]

crying about what? we're 2nd in the nfc wtf would i be crying about?

Well good to know your crying has ceased for now - you should take a moment to enjoy it - before you start up again. You're like the John Boehner of the board.

 

[Flyingiguana]

Well good to know your crying has ceased for now - you should take a moment to enjoy it - before you start up again. You're like the John Boehner of the board.

what exactly would i be crying about?

 

[Bemular]

what exactly would i be crying about?

Shouldn't you be asking your therapist that question?

 

[Flyingiguana]

Shouldn't you be asking your therapist that question?

 

[iHATEdodgers]

Difference being 8th season versus second start.

As for Kaep's YPA versus Smith's, how much of that is YAC on the part of Smith, and Kaep throwing beyond 15 yards for completions? Not stirring the pot, just wondering how much of this is going on. From what I've seen, I'd lean toward Kaep hitting WR's down the field, while Smith relies on big plays from his recievers (not saying this is 100% the case, but I'd bet it is the majority).

I will say this, in Kaep's two starts I didn't think we would be relying on field position and FG's to win. In every Smith game previously, I have expected us to play for FG's and assume any 3rd down is likely seeing the ST's unit the next play (ANY 3rd down, not just the long ones). I think we'll see this is where Kaepernick separates himself from Smith in terms of performance, as well as the option to run more of the playbook.

I really wasn't making a case for Smith with my last few posts - I have no problem with Harbaugh sticking with Kaep if he continues to play well, but i also have no problem going back to Smith if that's how it turns out - I was just pointing out, what to me, are some interesting numbers, that I think people lose perspective on based on Brees/Rodgers/Manning throwing for 5,000 yards.

People have unrealistic expectations of what this passing offense should produce. Based on our average of 25 or so attempts per game it has been producing yardage at a high rate top 3 even. With Kaep it has gone through the roof at a previously unheard of rate (granted only 2 starts). I can see why Harbaugh is going with him for now. So unless Harbaugh/Roman revamps the offense to pass 30 or more times a game, we are not often going
to see 300 yards of the greatest show on mud, we are going to continue to see 24 points a game and a balanced attack.

I am happy with the balanced offense we have because I think it suits the strength of this team which is Defense.


As for your points above. I think that is the general consensus, Kaep has a stronger arm and therefore goes deep with the ball. However, against the Saints 3/4 of his longest passes were almost all YAC (Mannigham, Miller, Crabtree (called back)) the only long pass I recall was to Walker which ended up going for something like 45 and I think maybe 30? through the air. As for 3rd down % yeah I think it's been better two games under Kaep like 40 - 37.5 or thereabouts. Biggest difference is his escapability, although he has been holding the ball longer which also leads to situations from which he needs to escape.

 

[MHSL82]

I really wasn't making a case for Smith with my last few posts - I have no problem with Harbaugh sticking with Kaep if he continues to play well, but i also have no problem going back to Smith if that's how it turns out - I was just pointing out, what to me, are some interesting numbers, that I think people lose perspective on based on Brees/Rodgers/Manning throwing for 5,000 yards.

People have unrealistic expectations of what this passing offense should produce. Based on our average of 25 or so attempts per game it has been producing yardage at a high rate top 3 even. With Kaep it has gone through the roof at a previously unheard of rate (granted only 2 starts). I can see why Harbaugh is going with him for now. So unless Harbaugh/Roman revamps the offense to pass 30 or more times a game, we are not often going
to see 300 yards of the greatest show on mud, we are going to continue to see 24 points a game and a balanced attack.

I am happy with the balanced offense we have because I think it suits the strength of this team which is Defense.


As for your points above. I think that is the general consensus, Kaep has a stronger arm and therefore goes deep with the ball. However, against the Saints 3/4 of his longest passes were almost all YAC (Mannigham, Miller, Crabtree (called back)) the only long pass I recall was to Walker which ended up going for something like 45 and I think maybe 30? through the air. As for 3rd down % yeah I think it's been better two games under Kaep like 40 - 37.5 or thereabouts. Biggest difference is his escapability, although he has been holding the ball longer which also leads to situations from which he needs to escape.

The attempts will go up higher than 25 if we're down, so we might see some 30+ throws in the playoffs or versus the Pats. Conservatively, if he can maintain the 8 YPA that Smith had (and not the unrealistically high 9+ that he currently has), we should see some games close to 300. Having said that, I don't care for passing yards, I care for third down conversions and red zone and controlling the clock, pass or run.

I'm not concurring with you on your whole claim, just confirming that the Walker pass was 25 through the air, 20 YAC. The Manningham pass was 5-7 through the air for 40 total. I posted earlier that I didn't like how short highlights showed the Manningham pass, the TD run (which we know he can do and outside perception is Kaep's just a runner), and the TD throw (that Smith would likely have thrown, too) - instead of the Walker pass that was a much harder, better play and the Crabtree one that was called back but showed great play. Show the Walker pass and Crabtree pass more than the others!

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Well good to know your crying has ceased for now - you should take a moment to enjoy it - before you start up again. You're like the John Boehner of the board.

He does cry a lot. That's always been a bit of a head-scratcher for me. Who does that appeal to?

 

[Flyingiguana]

He does cry a lot. That's always been a bit of a head-scratcher for me. Who does that appeal to?

wtf do i cry about? ppl always think the grass is always greener, i'm the one to say maybe it isn't...

 

[Flyingiguana]

the only crying i see are the people crying about smith. guess they would have rathered kolb...

 

[MHSL82]

Well good to know your crying has ceased for now - you should take a moment to enjoy it - before you start up again. You're like the John Boehner of the board.

He does cry a lot. That's always been a bit of a head-scratcher for me. Who does that appeal to?

wtf do i cry about? ppl always think the grass is always greener, i'm the one to say maybe it isn't...

Obviously, Bem was referring to you crying, but I think Crimson was talking about John Boehner in his post (he bolded that part), not you. But if the shoe fits... just kidding, I wouldn't take a shot at most anyone. I don't know much about John Boehner besides having an unfortunate name. I confused him once with Anthony Weiner as to their names and Weiner's scandal.

 

[MHSL82]

(Yes, I know how to pronounce Boehner, I just read it differently when I confused them before.)

 

[iHATEdodgers]

legit concerns but lets not get carried away?

other teams scout other QB's every game, all season, for multiple seasons. so no, Kaep will not keep it up, but we shouldn't expect him to.

your bolden is right, we won't transform into a passing team anyway. but it APPEARS we've increased our chances of longer completions, should we choose to call it, or need to call it?

but it isn't only longer passes, which most teams don't call a LOT of either. it APPEARS a few more (not all) of those passing plays can be extended? whether he runs or throws short, still beats a sack.

That was quick... the first game the opposing defense took away Kaep's strengths, and Kaep has his first mediocre/bad game and we lose - just barely lost on some crazy bullshit, but against a good team who can contain Kaep like this we won't have a chance.

Hopefully Roman/Harbaugh/Kaep can counter the other teams countering his strengths. I think they can. But I'm not sure if the few games we have left this season will be enough time to work out all the kinks. Which makes me nervous heading to the playoffs.

 

[MHSL82]

That was quick... the first game the opposing defense took away Kaep's strengths, and Kaep has his first mediocre/bad game and we lose - just barely lost on some crazy bullshit, but against a good team who can contain Kaep like this we won't have a chance.

Hopefully Roman/Harbaugh/Kaep can counter the other teams countering his strengths. I think they can. But I'm not sure if the few games we have left this season will be enough time to work out all the kinks. Which makes me nervous heading to the playoffs.

I trust Harbaugh and am glad that he's the evaluator. Think about this - what if we have a game like the Rams game against the Dolphins, but win and then lose to the Patriots and Seahawks on the road - games that were hard with Smith or Kaep. We'd have then lost three of four and possibly been just ok for all four games. With a different coach like Singletary, they'd go back to Smith without knowing why. With Harbaugh, I know he'll only go back if he feels it'll give us the advantage going forward. No knee-jerk reaction.

 

[deep9er]

That was quick... the first game the opposing defense took away Kaep's strengths, and Kaep has his first mediocre/bad game and we lose - just barely lost on some crazy bullshit, but against a good team who can contain Kaep like this we won't have a chance.

Hopefully Roman/Harbaugh/Kaep can counter the other teams countering his strengths. I think they can. But I'm not sure if the few games we have left this season will be enough time to work out all the kinks. Which makes me nervous heading to the playoffs.

with four MORE games, they should be able to work out most, if not all the kinks.

similar to Alex Smith, Kaep is getting all of the attention, but other players can help too.

 

[AdelaideCrows83]

Here is a statistical comparison of Kaep and Smith through week 14, 2012.

Action plays. This includes all passes attempted, sacks, QB rushing attempts (including kneel downs).
Smith: 272 action plays.
Kaep: 188 action plays.

Net yardage per action play. This includes passing yards + QB rushing yards and deducts yardage lost due to sacks.
Kaep: 7.1 yards per play. (1342 net yards: 1073 pass, 351 rush, -82 sacks)
Smith: 6.4 yards per play. (1728 net yards: 1731 pass, 134 rush, -137 sacks)

Turnover % per action play (ie fumbles lost + picks):
Kaep: 1.6% (1 pick, 2 fumbles lost)
Smith: 2.2% (5 picks, 1 fumble lost)

Touchdown % per action play (including rushing TDs):
Smith: 4.8%
Kaep: 4.3%

Sack rate:
Kaep: 9.2%
Smith: 10%

ESPN's QBR rating:
Kaep: 78.1 (this would have Kaep ranked 3rd in NFL had he played enough games to qualify)
Smith: 68.8 (ranked 6th in NFL among eligible QBs)

Passer rating:
Smith: 104.1 (ranked 2nd in NFL among players with 100+ attempts)
Kaep: 97.5 (ranked 7th in NFL among players with 100+ attempts)

Finally, the king of all stats:
Win % (not counting the tie for either player)
Kaep: 75%. Smith: 75%

Personal opinion:
considering Kaep has 4 career starts, and Alex Smith is having a career best season, I'd say Kaep's numbers hold up pretty well. Looking forward to seeing what he can do in the playoffs.