pick 2 keepers from 3 options

[SmokingMonkey]

seems like a slam dunk, just want to make sure I'm not missing anything.

only can keep 2, half ppr scoring, my only 3 options are:

Mark Andrews...cost my 2nd rd pick...current ADP ~28th
Rhamondre Stevenson...cost my 6th rd pick...current ADP ~24th
Christian Kirk...cost my 7th rd pick...current ADP ~75th

I feel like Stevenson/Kirk are easy options to roll with given the limited choices.
Personally, I think the actual stats will be a lot closer than ADP on the Ridley vs Kirk split (Ridley's ADP ~43), and that the arrow is pointing up for the Jags passing attack under Pederson. WR30 seems low for Kirk when I think Ridley soaks up Zay's production from last year.

Only other option is to cut Kirk loose and just keep Stevenson for my 2023 6th rd pick. If the chips fall his way, I could see him being a steal as a 5th round cost to me in 2024.
Just don't see the value in retaining Andrews for a 2nd compared to Kirk for a 7th.

any and all thoughts welcome

 

[MilkSpiller22]

value wise, only Stevenson is good...

Kirk and andrews are too close to ADP... but Kirk is probably trending down, and Andrews is trending up....

if keeping only one is an option, thats what i would do...

 

[leftypower]

You've got it right on the button IMO. ....

 

[TKOSpikes]

value wise, only Stevenson is good...

Kirk and andrews are too close to ADP... but Kirk is probably trending down, and Andrews is trending up....

if keeping only one is an option, thats what i would do...

This

 

[TREFF]

I'd say to keep Stevenson for certain, value vs the lost pick is just too good not to.

I'm not sure why anyone would think Kirk is trending down..year one with Lawrence he hits 1100 and 8, seems like he should be trending up to me. Is it Calvin Ridley being on the team? I don't see that as a problem personally, especially not this year. Otherwise I just don't get any 'decline' in value. Lawrence growing, the Jag's offense growing as a unit..Kirk could be a very strong fantasy asset, soon.

Took him 5 years to have his first 1K season, but the first four were with Kyler Murray and Josh Rosen, so really hard to count that against him.

I'd keep Kirk vs a 7th rd pick every day of the week.

And I share your opinion on Andrews. A 2nd round pick, there's no return on investment there unless he has a career best year.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I'd say to keep Stevenson for certain, value vs the lost pick is just too good not to.

I'm not sure why anyone would think Kirk is trending down..year one with Lawrence he hits 1100 and 8, seems like he should be trending up to me. Is it Calvin Ridley being on the team? I don't see that as a problem personally, especially not this year. Otherwise I just don't get any 'decline' in value. Lawrence growing, the Jag's offense growing as a unit..Kirk could be a very strong fantasy asset, soon.

Took him 5 years to have his first 1K season, but the first four were with Kyler Murray and Josh Rosen, so really hard to count that against him.

I'd keep Kirk vs a 7th rd pick every day of the week.

And I share your opinion on Andrews. A 2nd round pick, there's no return on investment there unless he has a career best year.

maybe saying trending down was exaggerated... But i am very high on Ridley... i see ridley to be the number 1 there... sure, the Jaguars are an up and coming offense... and i do see that to remain... but i dont see there to be enough separation between Ridley or Kirk that either will be truly WR1s... and i dont think either is elite enough to force a fantasy vacuum on the two of them... which tells me that Lawrence is going to spread the ball more.. so all in all, i dont see enough targets to Kirk to give him any upside, even in the 7th round... He will have his big games... but i dont think enough...

i dont think its a bad keep at all to keep him... i just think he can do similar if not better than him with that pick, and picking also will give him more control for draft strategy and roster formation...

 

[femurov]

Rhamondre is a lock. I would keep Kirk, as well, but I could see throwing him back in for the extra pick. Although it would be tough to convince me that there will for sure be someone equal to or greater than Kirk.

 

[SteelersPride]

Im with milk. Keep stevenson and no one else.

 

[Shanemansj13]

Pretty much agree with others.

Mark Andrews...cost my 2nd rd pick...current ADP ~28th - right around his adp but you can do better or just draft him again, maybe in the 3rd. Don’t keep

Rhamondre Stevenson...cost my 6th rd pick...current ADP ~24th - LOCK

Christian Kirk...cost my 7th rd pick...current ADP ~75th - the addition of Ridley changes things. Again, right around his adp. Either way

 

[broncosmitty]

I’ve never done a keeper like this, but I’d be happy with Kirk in the 7th. So I’d keep him.

Andrews I guess would depend on where your 2nd rounder is. If it’s the beginning of the second, I’d let him go. If it’s at the end, after pick 20, I’d have to entertain the idea of keeping.

 

[TREFF]

Well the Jags would be far from the first team to have two legit fantasy WR's, so I personally see no conflict with Ridley added to the equation. If Kirk does 80% of his 2022 numbers, he's likely worth more than a 7th round pick of a keeper league draft. And honestly, pointing to a dude who flat out quit on his team, and hasn't played in nearly two years, as the guy who's gonna take away production from an established cog in the machine, just seems a bit bullocks to me.

 

[Shanemansj13]

Well the Jags would be far from the first team to have two legit fantasy WR's, so I personally see no conflict with Ridley added to the equation. If Kirk does 80% of his 2022 numbers, he's likely worth more than a 7th round pick of a keeper league draft. And honestly, pointing to a dude who flat out quit on his team, and hasn't played in nearly two years, as the guy who's gonna take away production from an established cog in the machine, just seems a bit bullocks to me.

Yeah he quit on his team and made some stupid decisions but now he gets to prove himself. Ridley is the more talented WR. Can’t deny Kirk and TL’s connection but anytime you add a talented WR things will change. He looks great in camp so far but being out of the league for two years it will definitely take time. I also think Kirk in the 7th is absolutely fine though. It just isn’t a no-brainer to keep him there imo.

 

[TREFF]

Yeah he quit on his team and made some stupid decisions but now he gets to prove himself. Ridley is the more talented WR. Can’t deny Kirk and TL’s connection but anytime you add a talented WR things will change. He looks great in camp so far but being out of the league for two years it will definitely take time. I also think Kirk in the 7th is absolutely fine though. It just isn’t a no-brainer to keep him there imo.

Well, Ridley WAS the more talented receiver...arguably..(he also had a much better QB than Kirk ever has had, and played opposite Julio Jones)
We don't know what he is today, so I'm not gonna just hand that to him.

 

[averagejoe]

i am very high on Ridley... i see ridley to be the number 1 there...

I disagree.
Though Ridley does make me nervous.
They are paying Kirk & Ridley about the same ($11 mill).

Ridley did much of his damage as the WR2 in Atlanta playing opposite Julio Jones. In his last full season (2020), Jones was hurt, and the Falcons run game was hopelessly ineffective with Gurley on his literal last leg. i.e. the dirty birds had to pass. Ridley gets 1300+.

Ridley missed all of 2022. Only played 5 games in 2021. So in 2 years, he's been in 5 games. What kind of game shape is he in? Not sure if this Ridley scenario is version of Josh Gordon 2.0?

 

[SmokingMonkey]

I think there's 2 very different roles for Jags WRs and Kirk's role is locked in as the slot WR, where Zay and Ridley compete for the WR snaps on the outside.

I'm also expecting an increase in passing yards and TDs from TLaw this season, so anything lost to Ridley shouldn't be significant. Kirk just needs similar TD luck to last yr and he'll make a great flex play as my 7th rd pick

 

[Sam Sportboy]

Yeah, Stevenson and Kirk fer me..........just as long as this is a 12 teamer or more.............didn't see the league size in yer post but again I am old and blind....10 or less Kirk gets Das Boot

 

[leftypower]

Well, Ridley WAS the more talented receiver...arguably..(he also had a much better QB than Kirk ever has had, and played opposite Julio Jones)
We don't know what he is today, so I'm not gonna just hand that to him.

I think there's 2 very different roles for Jags WRs and Kirk's role is locked in as the slot WR, where Zay and Ridley compete for the WR snaps on the outside.

I'm also expecting an increase in passing yards and TDs from TLaw this season, so anything lost to Ridley shouldn't be significant. Kirk just needs similar TD luck to last yr and he'll make a great flex play as my 7th rd pick

Selfishly, I'm onboard with you guys on this. .... if anyone suffer from Ridley being in the lineup now, it's Zay Jones and perhaps a bit of Engram.

 

[TREFF]

Selfishly, I'm onboard with you guys on this. .... if anyone suffer from Ridley being in the lineup now, it's Zay Jones and perhaps a bit of Engram.

ZAy is the most obvious loser yes, without question. But like Monkey mentioned, Lawrence's progression (assumed progression) in the offense, SHOULD lead to more production overall to begin with, the presence of 2 legit NFL WR's SHOULD help efficiency overall, so I just don't see much, if any, of a negative impact. And honestly I think a legit argument could be made that Kirk will do even better with Ridley on the other side

 

[Shanemansj13]

If TL becomes elite then everyone and their mom could benefit. Ridley a nice season. Kirk close to what he was last year and worth the 7th
Etienne.
If this happens the Jags win the south with flying colors.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

I drafted Josh Allen in the 2nd and Mark Andrews in the 3rd round again, same as last year