Passer rating inflation

[wilwhite]

Number of QB seasons with passer rating >100:

1971-1975: 1
1976-1980: 2
1981-1985: 2
1986-1990: 3
1991-1995: 5
1996-2000: 8
2001-2005: 9
2006-2010: 16
2011-2015: 25
2016-2020: 38

So far, 2021 has FOURTEEN QBs on track for a season with a rating over 100 - more than for 1971 to 1995 combined.

(Shout out to Steve Young, who was all alone over 100 every year from 1991-1994.)

 

[fastforward]

It didn't mean anything in 1971. It doesn't mean anything in 2021. The rising scores merely reflect the changes in the game particularly in regards to the rules and player protection.

 

[wilwhite]

It didn't mean anything in 1971. It doesn't mean anything in 2021. The rising scores merely reflect the changes in the game particularly in regards to the rules and player protection.

I agree - but if it doesn't mean anything then neither do its components: completion %, yards per attempt, TDs per attempt and INTs per attempt.

i.e. all-time yardage and TD records don't matter.

But people will still talk about how so-and-so current QB is at # whatever in all-time TDs, when that record has lost all meaning.

 

[Clayton]

I agree - but if it doesn't mean anything then neither do its components: completion %, yards per attempt, TDs per attempt and INTs per attempt.

i.e. all-time yardage and TD records don't matter.

But people will still talk about how so-and-so current QB is at # whatever in all-time TDs, when that record has lost all meaning.

Even beyond that we have mobile QBs changing how we look at the QB position (and pass rushers) as a whole. You then also have how much a QB makes being an even larger factor in the modern game. If you have a Matt Ryan caliber QB on a rookie contract then he is valuable, if you have a Matt Ryan caliber QB on a Matt Ryan contract then he isnt.

 

[MHSL82]

Russell Wilson, for his career, has had a good percentage, yards per attempt, touchdown to interception ratio, etc., but I was surprised to see that almost every year his passer rating was between 56 to 60. And this is WITH the passer rating inflation mentioned above. Has anyone else noticed this?

Russell Wilson Career Stats - NFL - ESPN

Complete career NFL stats for Pittsburgh Steelers Quarterback Russell Wilson on ESPN. Includes scoring, rushing, defensive and receiving stats.

www.espn.com

 

[PDay8810]

pass to run

so many designed 3 yard pass plays

next

 

[megalodon30]

Russell Wilson, for his career, has had a good percentage, yards per attempt, touchdown to interception ratio, etc., but I was surprised to see that almost every year his passer rating was between 56 to 60. And this is WITH the passer rating inflation mentioned above. Has anyone else noticed this?

Russell Wilson Career Stats - NFL - ESPN

Complete career NFL stats for Pittsburgh Steelers Quarterback Russell Wilson on ESPN. Includes scoring, rushing, defensive and receiving stats.

www.espn.com

That's not passer rating. That's the phony ESPN rating they only made up a few years ago. It's far more subjective than actual passer rating, which uses hard numbers to calculate.

 

[R.J. MacReady]

It didn't mean anything in 1971. It doesn't mean anything in 2021. The rising scores merely reflect the changes in the game particularly in regards to the rules and player protection.

So you are saying that all the advancements in QB & receiver training, film study etc that started in High School has no bearing at all?

Put in a QB's from the 70's with 70's training and he puts up the same numbers as todays passer rating leaders?

 

[R.J. MacReady]

That's not passer rating. That's the phony ESPN rating they only made up a few years ago. It's far more subjective than actual passer rating, which uses hard numbers to calculate.

The ESPN rating was designed by them with wiggle room values so that they can promote they players they want.

 

[eaglesnut]

Number of QB seasons with passer rating >100:

1971-1975: 1
1976-1980: 2
1981-1985: 2
1986-1990: 3
1991-1995: 5
1996-2000: 8
2001-2005: 9
2006-2010: 16
2011-2015: 25
2016-2020: 38

So far, 2021 has FOURTEEN QBs on track for a season with a rating over 100 - more than for 1971 to 1995 combined.

(Shout out to Steve Young, who was all alone over 100 every year from 1991-1994.)

The WCO being adopted all over had an initial effect, but the rules changes against defensive players since early 2000s contributed to the rest. Coaches are still designing new ways of taking advantage of them.

Where did this data come from? If it was split up differently that would be better.

 

[wilwhite]

The WCO being adopted all over had an initial effect, but the rules changes against defensive players since early 2000s contributed to the rest. Coaches are still designing new ways of taking advantage of them.

Where did this data come from? If it was split up differently that would be better.

I just slogged through the leaders by passer rating for every year in 2022 NFL Passing | Pro-Football-Reference.com

You have to re-sort by passer rating for every year, for some reason that's not something you can automatically get a seasonal list for.

 

[Clayton]

Very small sample size but it seems that YPA and Yards Per Rush are both down this year after two games. We're seeing more WCO than ever...but unlike last year we aren't seeing many dominant run games so far.

If this holds up we might be in a 'defense wins championship' year like the old days. That said....just two games.

 

[MHSL82]

That's not passer rating. That's the phony ESPN rating they only made up a few years ago. It's far more subjective than actual passer rating, which uses hard numbers to calculate.

The number second to the right is passer rating and the number on the very right is their phony rating. This is because their rating is out of 100 and so you can see in the second column from the right, one year goes above 100 so that’s the passer rating, not their rating.

 

[MHSL82]

You know, I think that ESPN just has a bug in it because it doesn’t make any sense that he would have 60.4 multiple years and 56.3 inmultiple years exactly. That’s almost impossible according to the rating formula. I think that it’s not set up correctly. I think something like pro football reference would have a better result as far as accuracy goes, and his stats would be a little bit better in passer rating. So this is more, I guess, me relying on BSPN.

 

[fastforward]

So you are saying that all the advancements in QB & receiver training, film study etc that started in High School has no bearing at all?

Put in a QB's from the 70's with 70's training and he puts up the same numbers as todays passer rating leaders?

I didn't say that at all.

Passer rating is meaningless and irrelevant because the main component, (completion percentage), is meaningless. Has a QB who completes 75 of 100 passes for 700 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT performed better than a QB who completes 50 of 100 passes for 700 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT? There's no context. Was 1 QB 'throwing' jet sweeps whilst the other threw down field? Was 1 QB converting 3rd downs whilst the other played safe with fewer conversions but a higher completion rate? Passing in the 4th quarter down 3 scores against a prevent defense is more stat friendly than passing in the 1st half. The rule changes over the last 50 years have made passing easier so even without context passing ratings have consistently risen.

 

[jarntt]

Russell Wilson, for his career, has had a good percentage, yards per attempt, touchdown to interception ratio, etc., but I was surprised to see that almost every year his passer rating was between 56 to 60. And this is WITH the passer rating inflation mentioned above. Has anyone else noticed this?

Russell Wilson Career Stats - NFL - ESPN

Complete career NFL stats for Pittsburgh Steelers Quarterback Russell Wilson on ESPN. Includes scoring, rushing, defensive and receiving stats.

www.espn.com

That 100% can’t be accurate. ESPN screwed something up there. Look at 2018 and 2019

 

[megalodon30]

That 100% can’t be accurate. ESPN screwed something up there. Look at 2018 and 2019

His pro football reference page has accurate stats.

 

[msgkings322]

I agree - but if it doesn't mean anything then neither do its components: completion %, yards per attempt, TDs per attempt and INTs per attempt.

i.e. all-time yardage and TD records don't matter.

But people will still talk about how so-and-so current QB is at # whatever in all-time TDs, when that record has lost all meaning.

In most sports, athletes do continue to improve...records in Olympic sport keep getting set etc...it's not unreasonable to think the modern QBs are more athletic and skilled than the ones from decades ago, on average. More even distribution vs 2-3 standouts in earlier times, I dunno just a thought

 

[Chief Cola]

I didn't say that at all.

Passer rating is meaningless and irrelevant because the main component, (completion percentage), is meaningless. Has a QB who completes 75 of 100 passes for 700 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT performed better than a QB who completes 50 of 100 passes for 700 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT? There's no context. Was 1 QB 'throwing' jet sweeps whilst the other threw down field? Was 1 QB converting 3rd downs whilst the other played safe with fewer conversions but a higher completion rate? Passing in the 4th quarter down 3 scores against a prevent defense is more stat friendly than passing in the 1st half. The rule changes over the last 50 years have made passing easier so even without context passing ratings have consistently risen.

See also: Philip Rivers' career.

 

[Wazmankg]

In most sports, athletes do continue to improve...records in Olympic sport keep getting set etc...it's not unreasonable to think the modern QBs are more athletic and skilled than the ones from decades ago, on average. More even distribution vs 2-3 standouts in earlier times, I dunno just a thought

Definitely more even distribution as in there are more talented QBs today. But it's also not unreasonable to suggest that the greats of 50 years ago would be successful today, had they grown up in this era... and as to athleticism, the GOAT just retired and he was a statue.

... and the reason is the rule changes over the years that have changed the way that offenses operate.