Over/Under 7.5

[Crimsoncrew]

Let's not forget the Chicago game where Kaepernick melted down in the second half. But don't get me started on him.

That's a "should have won", crying after the fact sort of game, so I'm not going to include it. The other two were truly fluky losses that statistically would have been wins in excess of 95% of the time.

 

[Montalban]

We averaged 19.1 PPG last year. In 2011, we averaged 23.8 PPG. That's despite an identical 29 forced turnovers by the D, and three defensive or STs TDs in each season. Five INTs in 2011, ten in 2014. Ten offensive fumbles in 2011, eleven in 2014. Our average time of possession was better by more than 30 seconds in 2011. The only two significant measures where last year's offense was better was sacks (36 vs. 42) and total yards (5239 vs. 4974).

More significant than the raw numbers is when they were accumulated. Last year, we wilted in all but one or two games at the most important times. We were completely impotent in the 4th quarter last year, averaging 2.1 points. In 2011, we averaged 7.1 points in that most important of quarters. In 2011, we started relatively slowly - 10.8 points per first half - and finished strong - 13.3 points per second half. In 2014, it was the opposite - 13.3 points per first half, and an embarrassing 5.6 points per second half. We easily lost at least four games last year because we simply could not move the ball in the second half.

If you truly think last year's offense was better than 2011's, I really question your football acumen.

I guess I have to agree. I'd forgotten, or at least blanked out, the memory of Kaepernick's pathetic second half performances last year. I agree, it was embarrasing.

 

[Montalban]

That's a "should have won", crying after the fact sort of game, so I'm not going to include it. The other two were truly fluky losses that statistically would have been wins in excess of 95% of the time.

20 point second half leads usually hold up 95% of the time as well.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

20 point second half leads usually hold up 95% of the time as well.

That's fair. They put up 21 in the 4th quarter of that game. But it's not quite as fluky as the other two.

Part of my cautious optimism for next year - not that we're likely to be in the SB hunt, but that we might be in the playoff hunt - is that our offense virtually cannot be as bad as it was last year. And if they truly do more to try to stretch the field - vertically, with T. Smith, and horizontally, with Bush and Hunter - and improve our efficiency, it's possible we could see a significant improvement in that area. Most of that will ultimately rest on Kap's shoulders, though.

 

[Montalban]

That's fair. They put up 21 in the 4th quarter of that game. But it's not quite as fluky as the other two.

Part of my cautious optimism for next year - not that we're likely to be in the SB hunt, but that we might be in the playoff hunt - is that our offense virtually cannot be as bad as it was last year. And if they truly do more to try to stretch the field - vertically, with T. Smith, and horizontally, with Bush and Hunter - and improve our efficiency, it's possible we could see a significant improvement in that area. Most of that will ultimately rest on Kap's shoulders, though.

Do they have the scheme developed to do that though? That's what I'm wondering. If Kaepernick can't get past his first rerad I guess it doesn't matter anyway. It should be interesting. Maybe a new scheme to compliment Kaepernick's strengths is the right idea. He has the arm to stretch the field but does he have the patience to sit in the pocket and let those plays develop?

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Do they have the scheme developed to do that though? That's what I'm wondering. If Kaepernick can't get past his first rerad I guess it doesn't matter anyway. It should be interesting. Maybe a new scheme to compliment Kaepernick's strengths is the right idea. He has the arm to stretch the field but does he have the patience to sit in the pocket and let those plays develop?

They can do a lot to make him more comfortable. Rolling him out puts him in his comfort zone and allows him to read half the field. A screen to the RB should be a relatively safe play that will slow down the pass rush (if he can throw with touch). In terms of the deep balls, I don't know, but just the threat of it should help. If we can hit the deep balls once or twice a game, it will pay dividends.

 

[Montalban]

They can do a lot to make him more comfortable. Rolling him out puts him in his comfort zone and allows him to read half the field. A screen to the RB should be a relatively safe play that will slow down the pass rush (if he can throw with touch). In terms of the deep balls, I don't know, but just the threat of it should help. If we can hit the deep balls once or twice a game, it will pay dividends.

I can't recall the last time I saw the 49ers throw a screen pass. Having Bush may help in that area.

 

[Pattersonca65]

I can't recall the last time I saw the 49ers throw a screen pass. Having Bush may help in that area.

Roman wouldnt commit to it.

 

[Pattersonca65]

That's fair. They put up 21 in the 4th quarter of that game. But it's not quite as fluky as the other two.

Part of my cautious optimism for next year - not that we're likely to be in the SB hunt, but that we might be in the playoff hunt - is that our offense virtually cannot be as bad as it was last year. And if they truly do more to try to stretch the field - vertically, with T. Smith, and horizontally, with Bush and Hunter - and improve our efficiency, it's possible we could see a significant improvement in that area. Most of that will ultimately rest on Kap's shoulders, though.

That's fair. They put up 21 in the 4th quarter of that game. But it's not quite as fluky as the other two.

Part of my cautious optimism for next year - not that we're likely to be in the SB hunt, but that we might be in the playoff hunt - is that our offense virtually cannot be as bad as it was last year. And if they truly do more to try to stretch the field - vertically, with T. Smith, and horizontally, with Bush and Hunter - and improve our efficiency, it's possible we could see a significant improvement in that area. Most of that will ultimately rest on Kap's shoulders, though.

I thought Kap threw nice deep balls with accuracy until last year when he wae just.off. he overthrew receivers last year on passes he used to accurately throw years past

 

[Wolverine830872]

The NFC West has a brutal schedule this year. Not only do we have 6 games against our division, we play the NFC North and AFC North. Between those two divisions there is only one gimme game: Cleveland. On top of that you guys have to play Atlanta and NYG. Those are two more quality opponents.

Sf won 8 games last year, had one of (if not the worst) offseasons a team could possibly have, and have a tougher schedule this year than last. I would be extremely impressed if you guys got back to 8 wins. My guess is 6.

 

[Pattersonca65]

\

The NFC West has a brutal schedule this year. Not only do we have 6 games against our division, we play the NFC North and AFC North. Between those two divisions there is only one gimme game: Cleveland. On top of that you guys have to play Atlanta and NYG. Those are two more quality opponents.

Sf won 8 games last year, had one of (if not the worst) offseasons a team could possibly have, and have a tougher schedule this year than last. I would be extremely impressed if you guys got back to 8 wins. My guess is 6.

Forget last year. Last year the team was decimated by injuries and playing 2nd and even 3rd string players at many positions.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

The NFC West has a brutal schedule this year. Not only do we have 6 games against our division, we play the NFC North and AFC North. Between those two divisions there is only one gimme game: Cleveland. On top of that you guys have to play Atlanta and NYG. Those are two more quality opponents.

Sf won 8 games last year, had one of (if not the worst) offseasons a team could possibly have, and have a tougher schedule this year than last. I would be extremely impressed if you guys got back to 8 wins. My guess is 6.

I don't know that the schedule is any tougher this year. The Steelers and Ravens are always good, but they aren't the juggernauts they were a couple years ago. I don't buy Minnesota suddenly being legit, though they have a chance to take a leap. The Bears have major questions on D. The Lions may have lost as much or more than the Niners in terms of impact play, and they weren't as deep to begin with. Atlanta and the Giants aren't what I would consider "quality" opponents right now; both went 6-10 last year, the Falcons doing so in the worst division in football. We can't sleep on any of these teams at this point - I'm not sure we'd even be favored in any of those games going in - but none of them are certain losses either, IMO.

As bad as the offseason was, many of those departures were anticipated. And it would be virtually impossible to have the health issues we had last year, particularly on defense. That alone probably puts us at least on even footing with last year's team. I think we outperform 6 wins, but it's feasible we get swept in the division at this point. We shall see.

 

[Pattersonca65]

I don't know that the schedule is any tougher this year. The Steelers and Ravens are always good, but they aren't the juggernauts they were a couple years ago. I don't buy Minnesota suddenly being legit, though they have a chance to take a leap. The Bears have major questions on D. The Lions may have lost as much or more than the Niners in terms of impact play, and they weren't as deep to begin with. Atlanta and the Giants aren't what I would consider "quality" opponents right now; both went 6-10 last year, the Falcons doing so in the worst division in football. We can't sleep on any of these teams at this point - I'm not sure we'd even be favored in any of those games going in - but none of them are certain losses either, IMO.

As bad as the offseason was, many of those departures were anticipated. And it would be virtually impossible to have the health issues we had last year, particularly on defense. That alone probably puts us at least on even footing with last year's team. I think we outperform 6 wins, but it's feasible we get swept in the division at this point. We shall see.

I have a hard time trying to figure out what this team will do. I think near the end of preseason, we will be have a little better idea. But using last year's team as a starting benchmark is a bit absurd as that team was hardly resembling the team envisioned at the start of the year

 

[deep9er]

I have a hard time trying to figure out what this team will do. I think near the end of preseason, we will be have a little better idea. But using last year's team as a starting benchmark is a bit absurd as that team was hardly resembling the team envisioned at the start of the year

no one can figure out this team at this point.

agree, using last year's team as a benchmark doesn't work THIS time. just the fact the coaching staff has changed, then add in all the 'lead' players lost.

they have to avoid an "O-fer" start, cause then the players stop "buying in". If this happens, the season snowballs downhill. How many games is "start of the season"? No real answer but i'll throw out 4 games, the first quarter of the season.

 

[Pattersonca65]

no one can figure out this team at this point.

agree, using last year's team as a benchmark doesn't work THIS time. just the fact the coaching staff has changed, then add in all the 'lead' players lost.

they have to avoid an "O-fer" start, cause then the players stop "buying in". If this happens, the season snowballs downhill. How many games is "start of the season"? No real answer but i'll throw out 4 games, the first quarter of the season.

I'll be curious to see where they are by the end of preseason. I don't care about meanlingless preseason wins and losses. I am interested in seeing how the first units play near the end of preseason when teams should have things cleaned up to see how well they execute.

 

[deep9er]

I'll be curious to see where they are by the end of preseason. I don't care about meanlingless preseason wins and losses. I am interested in seeing how the first units play near the end of preseason when teams should have things cleaned up to see how well they execute.

agree the wins and losses aren't big in pre-season, but how much will they play the "regulars"? Odds are it won't be much and when they do, only execute the basic offense. Not complaining cause there's good reason, but just saying we won't see much even in Pre-season?

 

[Pattersonca65]

agree the wins and losses aren't big in pre-season, but how much will they play the "regulars"? Odds are it won't be much and when they do, only execute the basic offense. Not complaining cause there's good reason, but just saying we won't see much even in Pre-season?

In the past, can see regulars play anywhere from a quarter to a half. I've seen them play the first half before during the last preseason game. I understand they play a basic offense. But I do think during the early part of the preseason games when both teams are playing starters, I do think you can get a sense of how teams are going based on how the first teams are executing even basic plays. More of a concern near the end of preseason as the bugs should be worked out by then. I thought last preseason the 49ers first team offense looked anemic and that carried over to the regular season. I'll never forget years back the preseason after losing the Super Bowl how lousy the Raiders first team offense looked. Many people were saying don't worry, it is just preseason. But their lackluster play stayed through the regular season.

 

[deep9er]

In the past, can see regulars play anywhere from a quarter to a half. I've seen them play the first half before during the last preseason game. I understand they play a basic offense. But I do think during the early part of the preseason games when both teams are playing starters, I do think you can get a sense of how teams are going based on how the first teams are executing even basic plays. More of a concern near the end of preseason as the bugs should be worked out by then. I thought last preseason the 49ers first team offense looked anemic and that carried over to the regular season. I'll never forget years back the preseason after losing the Super Bowl how lousy the Raiders first team offense looked. Many people were saying don't worry, it is just preseason. But their lackluster play stayed through the regular season.

for this pre-season, looking forward to reports on the O-line - both running and pass protect.

 

[Pattersonca65]

for this pre-season, looking forward to reports on the O-line - both running and pass protect.

Even in preseason, if the first string oline is getting pushed back in the backfield every game and Hyde is averaging 1 YPC, I start to get concerned.

 

[Wolverine830872]

no one can figure out this team at this point.

agree, using last year's team as a benchmark doesn't work THIS time. just the fact the coaching staff has changed, then add in all the 'lead' players lost.

they have to avoid an "O-fer" start, cause then the players stop "buying in". If this happens, the season snowballs downhill. How many games is "start of the season"? No real answer but i'll throw out 4 games, the first quarter of the season.

That is a great point, and you guys start with the Vikings at home which is a great way to ease into the season. After that you run the early gauntlet with @Pit, @AZ, GB, @NYG (luckily not a 10am start), Bal, Sea.

Jeeze half of your away games are 10am starts. the NFL hates the west coast. If StL is going to remain in the NFCW, then their in-division home games should all be late games.