Over/Under 7.5

[Crimsoncrew]

Fair enough. I don't think the front 7 willbe able to cover for the deficiencies in the backfield as they've always done in the past. Too much talent has left from that front 7 group as well as critical leadership.

How good was our front-seven last year? Bowman missed the whole season. Dorsey missed the whole season. Willis missed ten games. Aldon missed nine games and wasn't himself over the final seven. Ian Williams missed the final seven games and was replaced by Dial, who was playing out of position. Justin Smith was still good, but not nearly the force he was in 2011 and pre-injury 2012. Brooks was clearly off his game, was outplayed by Skuta and Lynch, and missed three of the final four games. Ray McDonald was arguably our most consistent front-seven player prior to getting the boot. Of seven starting spots, only Justin Smith and Wilhoite played all 16 games.

Meanwhile, Reid and Bethea were very, very good (though Reid didn't get his hands on as many balls as he had the year before). Culliver and Cox both exceeded expectations, with Cox in particular proving to be something of a ballhawk. We were #1 in INTs despite tying for 21st in sacks. Our run D was still good, if not what it has been of late. But in the passing game, I think the DB play likely covered some front-seven deficiencies last season.

There's no doubt that there are questions along the DL, but I just don't think we're going to see the collapse some are projecting. Dockett, Dorsey, and Williams are all proven, starting-caliber DL. Dial showed promise despite playing out of position and being asked to do a lot. Carradine showed some legit pass-rushing prowess late in the season. TJE has proven to be a solid if unspectacular player. And Armstead is really just gravy. I expect those guys to rotate more than they have in the recent past. Combine that with Aldon looking like he's back, Brooks actually taking an interest, Lynch continuing his development, and Harold coming in, and I see no reason to believe that this D is going to fall off a cliff. The offense will likely need to pick up some slack, but if they can average a TD a second half this year, they'll be ahead of last year's team. This is still a talented group that should be competitive in any game they play.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Both of last year's starters at Corner are gone and Reid cannot be counted upon to stay healthy. I couldn't even name you the nickel back at this point unless its Jimmie Ward who I believe has no business being in the NFL in the first place. Our front 7 covered for this deficiency a lot in the past but that won't be happenning this year with all the key losses in that area. I believe they will still play tough but as a whole will be just good enough to get us beat.

And I'll note that you could have said this exact same thing last year, and our D did just fine.

 

[deep9er]

Before draft and Free Agents I thought 7-9 but im starting to really like this team. D should still be a Top 5-8 D and Offense should be better rank 19-23. I think they can go 10-6 and come in 2nd in the West and make a wildcard. I will have my Final prediction after preseason.

it APPEARS the player attitudes are really positive now, ready to buy in on Tomsula and Co.? The reports are that the players are really enthusiastic about the changes being implemented? This player mind set is huge and is the first step for a successful season.

Next, all these Coaching changes and ideas need to show results. We might see a little bit in Pre-Season, but really not till Game 1. Hopefully, Mangini doesn't get so carried away, his own players get mixed up?

 

[Pattersonca65]

Both of last year's starters at Corner are gone and Reid cannot be counted upon to stay healthy. I couldn't even name you the nickel back at this point unless its Jimmie Ward who I believe has no business being in the NFL in the first place. Our front 7 covered for this deficiency a lot in the past but that won't be happenning this year with all the key losses in that area. I believe they will still play tough but as a whole will be just good enough to get us beat.

Reid was able to play most of the time he has been with the team and it refutes your original post. Unless otherwise heard, he will be playing. Tramaine Brock was one of last year's starters before getting injured. Nickel backs are just what they are. They aren't typically big name players usually CB's down on the depth chart, The front seven weren't covering all that much for the DB's last year. The DBs played well no matter who was plugged in to start.

 

[Montalban]

How good was our front-seven last year? Bowman missed the whole season. Dorsey missed the whole season. Willis missed ten games. Aldon missed nine games and wasn't himself over the final seven. Ian Williams missed the final seven games and was replaced by Dial, who was playing out of position. Justin Smith was still good, but not nearly the force he was in 2011 and pre-injury 2012. Brooks was clearly off his game, was outplayed by Skuta and Lynch, and missed three of the final four games. Ray McDonald was arguably our most consistent front-seven player prior to getting the boot. Of seven starting spots, only Justin Smith and Wilhoite played all 16 games.

Meanwhile, Reid and Bethea were very, very good (though Reid didn't get his hands on as many balls as he had the year before). Culliver and Cox both exceeded expectations, with Cox in particular proving to be something of a ballhawk. We were #1 in INTs despite tying for 21st in sacks. Our run D was still good, if not what it has been of late. But in the passing game, I think the DB play likely covered some front-seven deficiencies last season.

There's no doubt that there are questions along the DL, but I just don't think we're going to see the collapse some are projecting. Dockett, Dorsey, and Williams are all proven, starting-caliber DL. Dial showed promise despite playing out of position and being asked to do a lot. Carradine showed some legit pass-rushing prowess late in the season. TJE has proven to be a solid if unspectacular player. And Armstead is really just gravy. I expect those guys to rotate more than they have in the recent past. Combine that with Aldon looking like he's back, Brooks actually taking an interest, Lynch continuing his development, and Harold coming in, and I see no reason to believe that this D is going to fall off a cliff. The offense will likely need to pick up some slack, but if they can average a TD a second half this year, they'll be ahead of last year's team. This is still a talented group that should be competitive in any game they play.

Which I think illustrates my point because look how far the team sank without that powerful front 7. As for Reid, I thought he took a lot of bad angles and too many chances and I didn't like his fragility. Cox and Culliver I really liked. I think Corner is the hardest position to play in the league and I thought those guys did a good job. Now both are gone. I don't feel like Smith can be counted on to stay out of trouble but I do like Lynch though, He looks like a real player.

 

[Montalban]

Reid was able to play most of the time he has been with the team and it refutes your original post. Unless otherwise heard, he will be playing. Tramaine Brock was one of last year's starters before getting injured. Nickel backs are just what they are. They aren't typically big name players usually CB's down on the depth chart, The front seven weren't covering all that much for the DB's last year. The DBs played well no matter who was plugged in to start.

I think he's had several concussions already?

 

[Pattersonca65]

Which I think illustrates my point because look how far the team sank without that powerful front 7. As for Reid, I thought he took a lot of bad angles and too many chances and I didn't like his fragility. Cox and Culliver I really liked. I think Corner is the hardest position to play in the league and I thought those guys did a good job. Now both are gone. I don't feel like Smith can be counted on to stay out of trouble but I do like Lynch though, He looks like a real player.

The team didn't sink because of the front seven. The defense was still 5th in the league despite being ravaged by injury. It was the offense that led to the team's dropoff. Had the offense just put up some more second half points in a few of the games, the record would have looked much different.

 

[Pattersonca65]

I think he's had several concussions already?

He's had a couple. Doesn't mean he can't avoid them by being a bit more careful about tackling

 

[Pattersonca65]

How good was our front-seven last year? Bowman missed the whole season. Dorsey missed the whole season. Willis missed ten games. Aldon missed nine games and wasn't himself over the final seven. Ian Williams missed the final seven games and was replaced by Dial, who was playing out of position. Justin Smith was still good, but not nearly the force he was in 2011 and pre-injury 2012. Brooks was clearly off his game, was outplayed by Skuta and Lynch, and missed three of the final four games. Ray McDonald was arguably our most consistent front-seven player prior to getting the boot. Of seven starting spots, only Justin Smith and Wilhoite played all 16 games.

Meanwhile, Reid and Bethea were very, very good (though Reid didn't get his hands on as many balls as he had the year before). Culliver and Cox both exceeded expectations, with Cox in particular proving to be something of a ballhawk. We were #1 in INTs despite tying for 21st in sacks. Our run D was still good, if not what it has been of late. But in the passing game, I think the DB play likely covered some front-seven deficiencies last season.

There's no doubt that there are questions along the DL, but I just don't think we're going to see the collapse some are projecting. Dockett, Dorsey, and Williams are all proven, starting-caliber DL. Dial showed promise despite playing out of position and being asked to do a lot. Carradine showed some legit pass-rushing prowess late in the season. TJE has proven to be a solid if unspectacular player. And Armstead is really just gravy. I expect those guys to rotate more than they have in the recent past. Combine that with Aldon looking like he's back, Brooks actually taking an interest, Lynch continuing his development, and Harold coming in, and I see no reason to believe that this D is going to fall off a cliff. The offense will likely need to pick up some slack, but if they can average a TD a second half this year, they'll be ahead of last year's team. This is still a talented group that should be competitive in any game they play.

I don't see a collapse either. The unkown will be how the defense responds to Mangini's defensively philosophy. According to reports I've read, Mangini is going to be more aggressive on defense which requires players to stay in position or get burned for big plays.

 

[Montalban]

The team didn't sink because of the front seven. The defense was still 5th in the league despite being ravaged by injury. It was the offense that led to the team's dropoff. Had the offense just put up some more second half points in a few of the games, the record would have looked much different.

Yes they did. The front seven was so dominant in Harbaugh's first few seasons that they carried the weak offenses that the 49ers have had under Roman. They made all the difference. Because if you are going to tell me that last year's offense was weaker than the Alex Smith-led offense in Harbaugh's first year when they went 13 and 3, I'm gonna have to check your pass from the loony bin.

 

[Montalban]

He's had a couple. Doesn't mean he can't avoid them by being a bit more careful about tackling

They don't teach young players how to tackle any more.

 

[Montalban]

I don't see a collapse either. The unkown will be how the defense responds to Mangini's defensively philosophy. According to reports I've read, Mangini is going to be more aggressive on defense which requires players to stay in position or get burned for big plays.

I've always thought they needed that; even their top defenses. I used to hate the passive coverages that let teams walk it down the field.

 

[Pattersonca65]

Yes they did. The front seven was so dominant in Harbaugh's first few seasons that they carried the weak offenses that the 49ers have had under Roman. They made all the difference. Because if you are going to tell me that last year's offense was weaker than the Alex Smith-led offense in Harbaugh's first year when they went 13 and 3, I'm gonna have to check your pass from the loony bin.

Yes, you can call it looney, but the 49ers offense was worse last year than in 2011. The passing game might not have been great in 2011, but the running game, special teams, the crazy turnover ratio, led to better results on offense. The offense was flat out bad in the 2nd half last year and couldn't close out several games. Had the offense just put up some more 2nd half points, the record would have been better. The defense was ranked 5th and kept the team in games most of the season.

 

[Pattersonca65]

I've always thought they needed that; even their top defenses. I used to hate the passive coverages that let teams walk it down the field.

They are going to be more aggressive in blitzing and changing up things. Fangio ran a conservative vanilla type defense. Kinda what the Hawks do. The goal being not to give up big plays. I can't find much fault with Fangio's results

 

[Montalban]

Yes, you can call it looney, but the 49ers offense was worse last year than in 2011. The passing game might not have been great in 2011, but the running game, special teams, the crazy turnover ratio, led to better results on offense. The offense was flat out bad in the 2nd half last year and couldn't close out several games. Had the offense just put up some more 2nd half points, the record would have been better. The defense was ranked 5th and kept the team in games most of the season.

We'll have to agree to disagree then.

 

[Montalban]

They are going to be more aggressive in blitzing and changing up things. Fangio ran a conservative vanilla type defense. Kinda what the Hawks do. The goal being not to give up big plays. I can't find much fault with Fangio's results

The front seven playing aggressively will certainly help those poor DBs out.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Which I think illustrates my point because look how far the team sank without that powerful front 7. As for Reid, I thought he took a lot of bad angles and too many chances and I didn't like his fragility. Cox and Culliver I really liked. I think Corner is the hardest position to play in the league and I thought those guys did a good job. Now both are gone. I don't feel like Smith can be counted on to stay out of trouble but I do like Lynch though, He looks like a real player.

A few thoughts on this post. First and foremost, last year wasn't as bad as it looks at first glance. I'm not at all for revisionist history or playing the "what if" game (we SHOULD have won that game!), but two of those losses were incredibly fluky. Kap fumbled going into the endzone for the win against St. Louis at home. And SD staged a huge comeback - after we were down to playing third stringers at NT, ILB, DE, and CB, and second stringers at OLB and FS - to win in OT when Patton fumbled after gaining a first down into SD territory. Those two games alone would put us at 10-6, which is at least respectable.

More to the point, the defense was not the problem last year. We were 5th in total D and 10th in points allowed. The passing D was 5th in yards allowed (down five yards from the previous year) and first in INTs (down from 10th), though they did allow a lot of passing TDs. They weren't the elite unit they had been leading up to that point, but they were still a good unit, particularly considering just how ravaged they were by the end of the season. The offense, conversely, simply could not score in the 4th quarter. We averaged under 6 points in the second half of games last year, and Kap did not have a passing TD in the 4th. That's why our record fell off so sharply.

 

[Montalban]

A few thoughts on this post. First and foremost, last year wasn't as bad as it looks at first glance. I'm not at all for revisionist history or playing the "what if" game (we SHOULD have won that game!), but two of those losses were incredibly fluky. Kap fumbled going into the endzone for the win against St. Louis at home. And SD staged a huge comeback - after we were down to playing third stringers at NT, ILB, DE, and CB, and second stringers at OLB and FS - to win in OT when Patton fumbled after gaining a first down into SD territory. Those two games alone would put us at 10-6, which is at least respectable.

More to the point, the defense was not the problem last year. We were 5th in total D and 10th in points allowed. The passing D was 5th in yards allowed (down five yards from the previous year) and first in INTs (down from 10th), though they did allow a lot of passing TDs. They weren't the elite unit they had been leading up to that point, but they were still a good unit, particularly considering just how ravaged they were by the end of the season. The offense, conversely, simply could not score in the 4th quarter. We averaged under 6 points in the second half of games last year, and Kap did not have a passing TD in the 4th. That's why our record fell off so sharply.

Let's not forget the Chicago game where Kaepernick melted down in the second half. But don't get me started on him.

 

[seattlefan75]

8 games is definitely possible I dont know why some people are sleeping on you guys

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Yes they did. The front seven was so dominant in Harbaugh's first few seasons that they carried the weak offenses that the 49ers have had under Roman. They made all the difference. Because if you are going to tell me that last year's offense was weaker than the Alex Smith-led offense in Harbaugh's first year when they went 13 and 3, I'm gonna have to check your pass from the loony bin.

We averaged 19.1 PPG last year. In 2011, we averaged 23.8 PPG. That's despite an identical 29 forced turnovers by the D, and three defensive or STs TDs in each season. Five INTs in 2011, ten in 2014. Ten offensive fumbles in 2011, eleven in 2014. Our average time of possession was better by more than 30 seconds in 2011. The only two significant measures where last year's offense was better was sacks (36 vs. 42) and total yards (5239 vs. 4974).

More significant than the raw numbers is when they were accumulated. Last year, we wilted in all but one or two games at the most important times. We were completely impotent in the 4th quarter last year, averaging 2.1 points. In 2011, we averaged 7.1 points in that most important of quarters. In 2011, we started relatively slowly - 10.8 points per first half - and finished strong - 13.3 points per second half. In 2014, it was the opposite - 13.3 points per first half, and an embarrassing 5.6 points per second half. We easily lost at least four games last year because we simply could not move the ball in the second half.

If you truly think last year's offense was better than 2011's, I really question your football acumen.