Off-Season Thread

[cincygrad]

Cappa is RG.

Carmen will get a shot at LG, and I'm going to guess they throw Smith in there, who was really close to winning the RG job last year before he got hurt (I think?).

Still think they'll grab 1-2 OL in the middle portions of the draft. Probably rounds 3-5, as there is some quality depth there and the Bengals will have 2-3 years to work with these kids and groom them under great players like Cappa, Karras, and Collins.

I think this is right. My assumption is that the Bengals think Carman has all the talent and physical skill necessary to take off at LG, but they don't trust that he'll have the maturity or health. This is a huge offseason for him. If he comes in ready to play, he solidifies himself as a starter on an experienced offensive line and he'll position himself for a good payday down the road. If he fails to develop, the position will be filled by Smith, one of the other young guys on the team, a bargain level replacement, or a draft pick. If that player ends up earning the full-time position, Carman will basically be a back-up and might not ever get the chance in Cincinnati to develop.

 

[Cincyfan78]

I think this is right. My assumption is that the Bengals think Carman has all the talent and physical skill necessary to take off at LG, but they don't trust that he'll have the maturity or health. This is a huge offseason for him. If he comes in ready to play, he solidifies himself as a starter on an experienced offensive line and he'll position himself for a good payday down the road. If he fails to develop, the position will be filled by Smith, one of the other young guys on the team, a bargain level replacement, or a draft pick. If that player ends up earning the full-time position, Carman will basically be a back-up and might not ever get the chance in Cincinnati to develop.

And there is a lot of depth to be had in rounds 2-4 with OL, especially at the IOL spots.

Just did a new mock and landed a potential future C/G and OT in rounds 3 and 4. Guys who will come in and compete for the immediate backup, but need a year, or two, to show they can start. Which is perfect, because most of these contracts for the new OL are 2-3 years. Bengals already need to be looking to add to that depth now and not waiting.

 

[DanBengalfan]

we're trying to sign CB Stephen Gilmore, Raiders are too

 

[cincygrad]

And the Chiefs deal Hill.... Too hard to pay Mahomes, cut a check to make Hill the highest paid wideout, and fix a defense with limited cap room.

We've said it a number of times, but we need to strike while the iron is hot. Obviously having Burrow on a rookie deal helps, but we also have two of the best receivers in the conference that are both on rookie deals. Premium positions for low cost. This won't last long.

 

[futballiscool]

And the Chiefs deal Hill.... Too hard to pay Mahomes, cut a check to make Hill the highest paid wideout, and fix a defense with limited cap room.

We've said it a number of times, but we need to strike while the iron is hot. Obviously having Burrow on a rookie deal helps, but we also have two of the best receivers in the conference that are both on rookie deals. Premium positions for low cost. This won't last long.

I read a crazy stat from Daniel Jeremiah a few weeks back that there wasn't a single wide reciever over 30 ranked in the top 30 in yards last season. Tyreek Hill has a skillset that can't be replaced but long-term I think the Chiefs and Packers made the right moves trading WR in their late 20s for premium pick

 

[cincygrad]

I read a crazy stat from Daniel Jeremiah a few weeks back that there wasn't a single wide reciever over 30 ranked in the top 30 in yards last season. Tyreek Hill has a skillset that can't be replaced but long-term I think the Chiefs and Packers made the right moves trading WR in their late 20s for premium pick

Receivers can also be very good within their first few years in the league. Look at Chase, Higgins, Waddle, Jefferson, and others.... Makes sense to try to get one early in the draft.

 

[futballiscool]

Receivers can also be very good within their first few years in the league. Look at Chase, Higgins, Waddle, Jefferson, and others.... Makes sense to try to get one early in the draft.

Agreed. Plus you know all things being equal free agent WRs want to play on the same team as Mahomes.

 

[cincygrad]

At some point you would figure that these signings represent a bubble that will inevitably burst. I know that all teams are banking on continuous growth of the cap. And I realize that this is likely sound thinking.... But the contracts for non-quarterbacks (Adams and Hill) are concerning. I'm just not sure you really want to give up this kind of draft capital and place so much burden on your cap on one position. At some point we're going to look back and consider this a really bad strategy for roster building.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

This is exactly what is going to happen...

These owners keep giving out these guaranteed contracts being as much of the percent as they are, in 5 years, this league will be in trouble. Yes, the salary cap will go up. But at the rate the contracts are going up, the WR position for #1 paid WR this last week jumped $10 million dollars a year. Mahomes and Allen's contracts, are very team friendly now. Because the top signing QB's are now looking at $50 - $60 million a year.

You look at Burrow and Chase and you are looking minimum of $80 million when they hit the prime of their second contracts. Burrow will probably stay, but we will never give Ja'Marr Chase that kind of money.

So with guys having that much guaranteed, you can no longer cut them, because you can't afford the cap hit in dead money. So now you have a player you can't cut, and if you do, you are still paying them tons, and they can't perform to their contract expectations due to age or injuries. You spend the next 5 years of a rising cap signing contracts like these, and you have a potential team of worthless players making too much that can't be cut or traded. So the parity is going to go WAY DOWN, and you will start to see more dynasties, teams that can manage cap and salary better than the rest. Problem is, there is a fine line between managing the cap properly and being cheap to stay under the cap year in and year out.

Fortunately, the floor is still way high compared to most sports leagues. But still, this is the road it is heading down. Everyone saw Cincinnati make the SB and said, F, if they can do it, we can do it. Give us a franchise QB and a franchise WR, and we will build our defense. It is going to get real crazy in the next 5 years,m and those draft picks will be worth even more because of the value of a rookie contract.

 

[cincygrad]

This is exactly what is going to happen...

These owners keep giving out these guaranteed contracts being as much of the percent as they are, in 5 years, this league will be in trouble. Yes, the salary cap will go up. But at the rate the contracts are going up, the WR position for #1 paid WR this last week jumped $10 million dollars a year. Mahomes and Allen's contracts, are very team friendly now. Because the top signing QB's are now looking at $50 - $60 million a year.

You look at Burrow and Chase and you are looking minimum of $80 million when they hit the prime of their second contracts. Burrow will probably stay, but we will never give Ja'Marr Chase that kind of money.

So with guys having that much guaranteed, you can no longer cut them, because you can't afford the cap hit in dead money. So now you have a player you can't cut, and if you do, you are still paying them tons, and they can't perform to their contract expectations due to age or injuries. You spend the next 5 years of a rising cap signing contracts like these, and you have a potential team of worthless players making too much that can't be cut or traded. So the parity is going to go WAY DOWN, and you will start to see more dynasties, teams that can manage cap and salary better than the rest. Problem is, there is a fine line between managing the cap properly and being cheap to stay under the cap year in and year out.

Fortunately, the floor is still way high compared to most sports leagues. But still, this is the road it is heading down. Everyone saw Cincinnati make the SB and said, F, if they can do it, we can do it. Give us a franchise QB and a franchise WR, and we will build our defense. It is going to get real crazy in the next 5 years,m and those draft picks will be worth even more because of the value of a rookie contract.

College is also becoming more and more like a developmental league. Some of these guys that are making decent coin with NIL deals can now either stay in their current program and develop or transfer to another program for more exposure or development before declaring for the draft. If this delays entry to the draft for some of the young players, you'll see more physical development with age and more readiness for the pro game. That makes draft picks even more valuable.

Some of this is because teams are copying the Rams.... But I have a feeling the pendulum is going to shift back to draft picks in a big way over the next few years.

 

[alf8478]

Just copy the Washington model and franchise Chase twice rather than sign him to a crazy long term extension. That will give you 6 more years of him (from now) with which to try and win the Super Bowl with Burrow.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

Just copy the Washington model and franchise Chase twice rather than sign him to a crazy long term extension. That will give you 6 more years of him (from now) with which to try and win the Super Bowl with Burrow.

Pretty sure by the time Chase is eligible for that, the top 5 paid players are going to be around $30 million. Adams is making $28 million, Hill $30 million. That top 5 average went way up. Plus, the franchise tag, the first one is affordable for the franchise player, the second one, not so much. IT takes a penalty hit of like 20% increase or something, from top 3? I am not sure the specifics. But that second franchise tag would give Chase more than any other player at the position by a bit. Or at least that is what I am thinking. If anyone has the value of the second franchise tag, please share so we can be accurate.

 

[alf8478]

Pretty sure by the time Chase is eligible for that, the top 5 paid players are going to be around $30 million. Adams is making $28 million, Hill $30 million. That top 5 average went way up. Plus, the franchise tag, the first one is affordable for the franchise player, the second one, not so much. IT takes a penalty hit of like 20% increase or something, from top 3? I am not sure the specifics. But that second franchise tag would give Chase more than any other player at the position by a bit. Or at least that is what I am thinking. If anyone has the value of the second franchise tag, please share so we can be accurate.

From nbcsports.com

Year 1:

• Exclusive: Teams must offer the selected player a one-year contract no less than either the average of the top-five salaries at that player’s position based on April of the current year or 120% of the player’s previous year’s salary, whichever is greater.

Second tag:

If a team applies the franchise tag to a player in back-to-back years, they’re agreeing to pay the athlete 120% of their salary the year before. A third consecutive tag runs at either 144% of the second-year tag salary, 120% of the average of the five highest salaries at their respective position or the average of the top-five salaries at the highest-paid position, whichever is higher.

Wouldn’t Chase pretty much be getting that much in a new contract anyway? It might be better off doing that to Higgins now that I think about it, assuming he wants top dollar. Use him for two extra years and then let him leave.

 

[Cincyfan78]

A - Odd that Hill wants to go to a team where the QB barely throws the ball 30 yards downfield, but I digress...

B - Every year someone leaves a winning team for money and regrets it down the road. Hill very well could be in that boat.

C - I think too many people get caught up in the contract $$$ being reported, and not the actual money likely to be seen. Look at the guaranteed money and the years vs what can be voided. The majority of these contracts never see the light of day at the end.

D - The cap is going to jump - big time. The % may seem odd now, but in the end, it will remain relatively the same.

Lastly - keep a good OL in front of Burrow - and regardless of who is at RB/WR/TE - he can make them pretty damned good. Pay for Burrow. Pay to protect him. Pay to keep guys like Chase and Higgins, but only within reason. Keeping Burrow and keeping him protected are priority 1 and 1B to anything else that goes on with that offense.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

A - Odd that Hill wants to go to a team where the QB barely throws the ball 30 yards downfield, but I digress...

B - Every year someone leaves a winning team for money and regrets it down the road. Hill very well could be in that boat.

C - I think too many people get caught up in the contract $$$ being reported, and not the actual money likely to be seen. Look at the guaranteed money and the years vs what can be voided. The majority of these contracts never see the light of day at the end.

D - The cap is going to jump - big time. The % may seem odd now, but in the end, it will remain relatively the same.

Lastly - keep a good OL in front of Burrow - and regardless of who is at RB/WR/TE - he can make them pretty damned good. Pay for Burrow. Pay to protect him. Pay to keep guys like Chase and Higgins, but only within reason. Keeping Burrow and keeping him protected are priority 1 and 1B to anything else that goes on with that offense.

Hills stats will go down, but I doubt he regrets $30 million a year for 4 years, while getting nearly $75 million guaranteed.

I know the cap is going to jump big time, but now two of the best in the NFL are locked up long term at great, team friendly contracts (Mahomes and Allen). The next group is going to be expensive as F. Burrow being part of that.

That I do trust with Burrow being protected. If he has a couple play makers and a solid Oline, I think he can compensate for some holes on this team. However, having a defense that can at least keep the games reasonable and not force him to put up 40 every week would be nice.

 

[Cincyfan78]

Hills stats will go down, but I doubt he regrets $30 million a year for 4 years, while getting nearly $75 million guaranteed.

I know the cap is going to jump big time, but now two of the best in the NFL are locked up long term at great, team friendly contracts (Mahomes and Allen). The next group is going to be expensive as F. Burrow being part of that.

That I do trust with Burrow being protected. If he has a couple play makers and a solid Oline, I think he can compensate for some holes on this team. However, having a defense that can at least keep the games reasonable and not force him to put up 40 every week would be nice.

I don't think he'll regret the money - but I do think he'll regret that he could have, likely, gotten something close to that - and still been in KC winning a lot of games with PH as his QB slinging it all over the field.

We've seen it a lot where a stud player moves on, takes the best deal (i.e. most money), and then struggles and becomes malcontent. Will that happen here? Who knows, but at some point you would think that a player would realize that fit, scheme, organization, culture, etc..etc...etc...have to be worth more than just a few extra million (especially in those contracts where there are voidable years, and non-guaranteed money).

Of course, my favorite line is always when a guy talks about wanting to win, be a champion, and then takes the highest contracted offer ignoring how that team is set up long-term.

 

[futballiscool]

Another grand jury is considering a criminal complaint against Deshaun Watson

Yes, Deshaun Watson could still face criminal charges.

profootballtalk.nbcsports.com

Man if there are criminal charges that changes the entire complexion of that trade.

How on earth did the Texans get all those picks and give Watson that contract if this was still a possibility

 

[CrashDavisSports]

Another grand jury is considering a criminal complaint against Deshaun Watson

Yes, Deshaun Watson could still face criminal charges.

profootballtalk.nbcsports.com

Man if there are criminal charges that changes the entire complexion of that trade.

How on earth did the Texans get all those picks and give Watson that contract if this was still a possibility

MY friend is telling me the Browns were aware of it before trading for him. Believe that this same case will be like the others. He also said the Browns had been investigating this since December, and even sent investigators to Clemson to interview others that worked with him to make sure this hasn't been an ongoing issue prior to Houston. He listens to a lot of Sports Talk radio out of Cleveland while he drives semi. So not sure how much is legitimized, but he wouldn't lie based on what he had heard on the radio.

For the Brown's sake, they better hope to hell their gamble of this extra charge in another county gets the same treatment.

 

[futballiscool]

No charges. I guess those billion dollar organizations know how this works

 

[cincygrad]

I think the Browns can be reasonably assured that their QB won't be in jail. What they can't control is the media machine..... I really don't think Watson is going to buy off enough folks to keep them from talking. Should be an entertaining year on TMZ.