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None Shall Pass...

averagejoe

You fell victim to one of the classic blunders.
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How about this point of reference instead:
  • Again, going back to our MBBRL KOTF drafts, in 2013 all 12 RB were drafted within the first 16 picks. (The other 4 were 3 WR and 1 QB.)
  • In 2014, all 12 RB were drafted in the first 18 picks. (The other 6 were 5 WR and 1 TE not named Gronk.)
  • In 2015, the 12 RB were finally assembled in the first 25 picks! (The others were 10 WR, 2 QB and 1 TE.)
Do you se a trend here?
And if our MBBRL D2 draft for 2016 was any indication, the first 12 RB were assembled in the first 33 picks! (18 WR were taken, 2 QB and 1 TE.)
 

HaroldSeattle

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Do you se a trend here?

Of course, I see the trend. The hard part, is what to make of it. I believe that there are just fewer RBs that are work horses and get the bulk of carries and many of those are either aging or have had injuries that put their value in doubt.
 

TREFF

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Are you giving me homework? :eek:

How about this point of reference instead:
  • Again, going back to our MBBRL KOTF drafts, in 2013 all 12 RB were drafted within the first 16 picks. (The other 4 were 3 WR and 1 QB.)
  • In 2014, all 12 RB were drafted in the first 18 picks. (The other 6 were 5 WR and 1 TE not named Gronk.)
  • In 2015, the 12 RB were finally assembled in the first 25 picks! (The others were 10 WR, 2 QB and 1 TE.)
Do you se a trend here?


For the record, I never mentioned your name above.
Ha, a fact that was not lost on me, thanks Joe. But everyone surely knows, and if they don't, they may as well
 

TREFF

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And if our MBBRL D2 draft for 2016 was any indication, the first 12 RB were assembled in the first 33 picks! (18 WR were taken, 2 QB and 1 TE.)
I'm not sure the dynasty can be an indication, at leat not for redrafts this year. Quite a few of those guys who "deserve" to go early in a redraft at RB, are getting up there in age/milage for a high pick in dynasty. AP, Charles, Shady, (not to mention Lynch's retirement)..if they were 25, 26..they'd have been first/early second round guys.
 

averagejoe

You fell victim to one of the classic blunders.
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Of course, I see the trend. The hard part, is what to make of it. I believe that there are just fewer RBs that are work horses and get the bulk of carries and many of those are either aging or have had injuries that put their value in doubt.
It's a double-edged sword IMO.
I agree that workhorse RB are dwindling rapidly each season.
Maybe he's a poor example (or just a fluke), Danny Woodhead is no workhorse back, but he managed to end up in the top 12 in scoring last year. In part because of his 81 receptions and 750 receiving yards. (His 9 total TD couldn't have hurt either.)

Lesson: There may not be a lesson anymore? Each team uses backs differently. You wouldn't have seen Brian Westbrook leading the NFL in rush yards. But his all-purpose usage made him a top 12 guy in his era.

So once the RB from run-heavy offenses get drafted, owners may need to look outside the box for the next Westbrook, Sproles or Woodhead to emerge in 2016.
 

HaroldSeattle

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And if our MBBRL D2 draft for 2016 was any indication, the first 12 RB were assembled in the first 33 picks! (18 WR were taken, 2 QB and 1 TE.)
Having 3 WR starting slots in a 16 team PPR league certainly upped the value of drafting WRs early and often. Even with the number of WRs in the NFL , some teams found themselves scrambling to fill all 3 slots with a decent WR. Don't think you can use this league as a "typical" league. Don't think I've been in a league where the talent is spread so thin overall. Going to make for a very interesting league. Can't wait to see how things play out.:nod:
 

icefreeze57

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I actually think more than 6 of those WRs will finish in the top 12 (although injury may help them get there), maybe less of the RBs though, they're all so close, and who knows about Zeke.
 

TREFF

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I actually think more than 6 of those WRs will finish in the top 12 (although injury may help them get there), maybe less of the RBs though, they're all so close, and who knows about Zeke.
Its funny, cuz I was just about the opposite. I thought it was easier to do the WR's, since after the top 4/5/6 guys, the next dozen or so are very close together, so even assuming a normal, full 16 game season for them, it isn't a stretch to think any set of six guys could be #'s 6-12, and any other set of 6 guys could be #'s 13-18. I had issues with the runners. Not necessarily assuming 6 might not make it, that part had quite a few easy targets, but, when you assume someone won't be a top 12 guy, the next step is, who is going to take his place and be that top 12 guy? And after those 12, there's maybe 3 that barring anything unforeseen, wouldn't be a big stretch to assume they could do it. But to find 3 me that have a reasonable chance of supplanting one of the big name guys, without assuming injuries, or otherwise unforseen circumstances helping to lift someone not already in the discussion, into it? That part was difficult for me. I can't say I think Lamaar Miller won't be too 12, without also finding a guy who will take his place, ya know?
 

icefreeze57

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I would be more surprised if DeAndre Hopkins missed the top 12 than Miller though. While I agree there is but top heavy WR talent (making it more challenging) I think the runningbacks are all lower confidence (besides AP, Bell, Gurley, etc)
 

HaroldSeattle

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I would be more surprised if DeAndre Hopkins missed the top 12 than Miller though. While I agree there is but top heavy WR talent (making it more challenging) I think the runningbacks are all lower confidence (besides AP, Bell, Gurley, etc)
So just how confident are you about the Jets WRs without Fitz being signed and Marshall being 32? How confident are you with the Broncos WRs with Sanchez looking like the starting QB? How confident are you in Jordy Nelson bouncing back from a major injury at age 31? What is Dez value if Romo goes down again? The questions at WRs are many, not only do you have to hope they stay healthy, but you got to hope their QB stays healthy and is actually a decent QB
 

MilkSpiller22

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So just how confident are you about the Jets WRs without Fitz being signed and Marshall being 32? How confident are you with the Broncos WRs with Sanchez looking like the starting QB? How confident are you in Jordy Nelson bouncing back from a major injury at age 31? What is Dez value if Romo goes down again? The questions at WRs are many, not only do you have to hope they stay healthy, but you got to hope their QB stays healthy and is actually a decent QB

I don't really get why everyone is going crazy for fitz... He is an elite Backup and that's all... He only threw to Marshall and decker last season, know why?? because they are big targets, and they are open when they are not... I do think Geno smith can throw to them too, as all fitz did was just throw the ball high for them to get it...

Geno probably has even higher upside since he can run the ball better...

Just makes me laugh how we talk about fitz as if he is so great, I really cant imagine QB play being a significant factor in Marshall's success...
 

HaroldSeattle

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I don't really get why everyone is going crazy for fitz... He is an elite Backup and that's all... He only threw to Marshall and decker last season, know why?? because they are big targets, and they are open when they are not... I do think Geno smith can throw to them too, as all fitz did was just throw the ball high for them to get it...

Geno probably has even higher upside since he can run the ball better...

Just makes me laugh how we talk about fitz as if he is so great, I really cant imagine QB play being a significant factor in Marshall's success...
Fitz isn't great, I'd say just OK. So how good can his backups be ? Or most any backup for that matter. If a team is heading into a season, forced to start their backup that's not good.
 

MilkSpiller22

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Fitz isn't great, I'd say just OK. So how good can his backups be ? Or most any backup for that matter. If a team is heading into a season, forced to start their backup that's not good.

no its not... I am not saying Geno is better than fitz at all... But all Fitz did last season was throw to the 2 receivers... its not like he did anything special... I just don't get when a players success is because of the WRs he was throwing to, why a NEW QB would be so terrible to bring that player into irrelevancy...

Honestly, if Geno is THAT bad, then all that means is that he will throw MORE...
 

HaroldSeattle

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no its not... I am not saying Geno is better than fitz at all... But all Fitz did last season was throw to the 2 receivers... its not like he did anything special... I just don't get when a players success is because of the WRs he was throwing to, why a NEW QB would be so terrible to bring that player into irrelevancy...

Honestly, if Geno is THAT bad, then all that means is that he will throw MORE...

My point is, if a team has a QB problem, you can't be real confident in their WRs having a good season. Jets, Broncos, Rams and 49ers come to mind. Doesn't mean that it's impossible for their WRs to have a good season, but it does make it a risk to count on it.
 

MilkSpiller22

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My point is, if a team has a QB problem, you can't be real confident in their WRs having a good season. Jets, Broncos, Rams and 49ers come to mind. Doesn't mean that it's impossible for their WRs to have a good season, but it does make it a risk to count on it.


Rams and 49ers have problems because they don't have the wide receivers... My point is if the WRs are good enough to succeed with crappy QBs, then they should succeed similarly with potential crappier QBs...
 

HaroldSeattle

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Rams and 49ers have problems because they don't have the wide receivers... My point is if the WRs are good enough to succeed with crappy QBs, then they should succeed similarly with potential crappier QBs...
Change the word should to could and we would be in agreement.:nod:
 

Trudem

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RBs: David Johnson, Ezekiel Elliott, Devonta Freeman, LeSean McCoy, Lamar Miller and Eddie Lacy

WRs: Allen Robinson, Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffrey, Jordy Nelson, Mike Evans and Keenan Allen

Edit: I suppose no one can call me a homer lol
 

SmokingMonkey

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I'm agreeing with @MilkSpiller22 regarding Jets/Marshall.

Marshall makes the QB relevant, not the other way around.
Decker on the other hand, will be more dependent on Geno actually progressing through his reads.

Marshall at 32, getting 10+ targets per game? Sign me up.
 

SmokingMonkey

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My point is, if a team has a QB problem, you can't be real confident in their WRs having a good season. Jets, Broncos, Rams and 49ers come to mind. Doesn't mean that it's impossible for their WRs to have a good season, but it does make it a risk to count on it.

Said every single person that skipped on drafting Hopkins last year.
Some WRs make the QB, even though it is the other way around most times.

Doesn't make it a rule, or make one way riskier than another, imo.
 

SmokingMonkey

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The only game where Geno saw significant time last year, Marshall posted 9rec for 108yds, on 18 targets.

Not a typo, that is 18 targets.
 
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