No Mystery Why the Phillies Have Been Losing

[NDIrishGuy]

Holy shit you should post more often. Anyone who has the time and energy to type a paragraph talking about .11 PA/G just to tell Jvett to shove it up his ass is the fucking man in my book

Thanks, I do a lot of reading on baseball, especially the statistical side of it. I have always found it enjoyable. I just don't type much because I would really just mostly rehash other people's work. However I saw this topic and couldn't pass on the opportunity to talk about how the Phils' GM doesn't seem to think OBP has any role in baseball. It just had an added bonus of someone claiming Revere is a better leadoff batter than Jimmy this season.

 

[northeastphillyguy]

Thanks, I do a lot of reading on baseball, especially the statistical side of it. I have always found it enjoyable. I just don't type much because I would really just mostly rehash other people's work. However I saw this topic and couldn't pass on the opportunity to talk about how the Phils' GM doesn't seem to think OBP has any role in baseball. It just had an added bonus of someone claiming Revere is a better leadoff batter than Jimmy this season.

I think they should rotate guys to bat 2nd. Byrd,Ruiz,Hernandez etc.

 

[NDIrishGuy]

The optimal lineups for teams (statistically analyzed) all point the same way. Your best hitters should hit #2 and #4 with the hitter at #2 being the better OBP guy and the #4 being the best SLG. Your third best hitter should hit 1st. Then 3rd and 5th in the lineup are your #4 and #5 best hitters. The argument of who is best, second best, etc. is all that needs to be discussed. I think Utley is clearly the best. Some combination of Ruiz, Rollins, Byrd next then Howard.

 

[Cedrique]

The optimal lineups for teams (statistically analyzed) all point the same way. Your best hitters should hit #2 and #4 with the hitter at #2 being the better OBP guy and the #4 being the best SLG. Your third best hitter should hit 1st. Then 3rd and 5th in the lineup are your #4 and #5 best hitters. The argument of who is best, second best, etc. is all that needs to be discussed. I think Utley is clearly the best. Some combination of Ruiz, Rollins, Byrd next then Howard.

Unless your best obp is also your best slg, then you should bat him 3rd and the pitcher 8th. I don't have the stats to back it up but if Tony Larussa does it it has to be right

 

[jvett77]

So your assertion is that .300 BA with .300 OBP is better than a .250/.350 --- Ruben, is that you?

True. You cannot walk your way to a championship. Revere will continue to improve if Ryno leaves him at lead off. How can a .300 hitter (Yes, my prediction - already demonstrated last year) with 50 SBs, not be the man to lead off? You're placing too high a value on BBs and thus the OBP stat. Why would you want a 20 homer - 80 rbi guy in the first slot? That's ludicrous. JRol's perfect for the second spot and he's a switch hitter. The fact that JRol also walks a lot is icing on the cake for this 35-year old guy.

You want youthful speed up front, a guy who can zoom around the bases and do cartwheels coming into home plate. If Revere ever learns how to drag bunt, his OBP will climb along with his average. He'll also learn to take the bad pitches and his walks will increase as he grows in the first spot. As long as Ryno keeps horsing around with Revere, his progress will be slower. Using JRol to lead off reduces your capabilities. It's not the best use of talent. That's the way I see it.

 

[NDIrishGuy]

True. You cannot walk your way to a championship. Revere will continue to improve if Ryno leaves him at lead off. How can a .300 hitter (Yes, my prediction - already demonstrated last year) with 50 SBs, not be the man to lead off? You're placing too high a value on BBs and thus the OBP stat. Why would you want a 20 homer - 80 rbi guy in the first slot? That's ludicrous. JRol's perfect for the second spot and he's a switch hitter. The fact that JRol also walks a lot is icing on the cake for this 35-year old guy.

You want youthful speed up front, a guy who can zoom around the bases and do cartwheels coming into home plate. If Revere ever learns how to drag bunt, his OBP will climb along with his average. He'll also learn to take the bad pitches and his walks will increase as he grows in the first spot. As long as Ryno keeps horsing around with Revere, his progress will be slower. Using JRol to lead off reduces your capabilities. It's not the best use of talent. That's the way I see it.

You continue to use BA as if it was an important stat. OBP and SLG have been proven to be useful, with OBP being the more important number. You can say teams don't "walk their way to a championship" and try to dismiss my argument with a stupid statement such as that, but it has been proven over the long term, that teams that get on base more, score more runs....it is an AMAZING coincidence isn't it? More runners on base = more runs, who the heck could've seen that coming. Know why Juan Pierre was never a great player? Because just like Ben Revere he had no walks, no power, and only speed. Why do you assume that those players cannot use their speed later in the lineup? Because they won't get the 1 guaranteed AB without anyone on base in front of them? Revere is a crap hitter, he has at best a reasonable BA with no walks and no power, placing him at the top of the lineup ensures that a crap hitter gets the most plate appearances....that is stupid baseball and shouldn't require explanation.

 

[Retroram52]

Holy shit you should post more often. Anyone who has the time and energy to type a paragraph talking about .11 PA/G just to tell Jvett to shove it up his ass is the fucking man in my book

Number one, you kill me sometimes!! LOL!!

 

[Retroram52]

You continue to use BA as if it was an important stat. OBP and SLG have been proven to be useful, with OBP being the more important number. You can say teams don't "walk their way to a championship" and try to dismiss my argument with a stupid statement such as that, but it has been proven over the long term, that teams that get on base more, score more runs....it is an AMAZING coincidence isn't it? More runners on base = more runs, who the heck could've seen that coming. Know why Juan Pierre was never a great player? Because just like Ben Revere he had no walks, no power, and only speed. Why do you assume that those players cannot use their speed later in the lineup? Because they won't get the 1 guaranteed AB without anyone on base in front of them? Revere is a crap hitter, he has at best a reasonable BA with no walks and no power, placing him at the top of the lineup ensures that a crap hitter gets the most plate appearances....that is stupid baseball and shouldn't require explanation.

OBP according to Sandberg has no bearing or connection to RBI's and thus runs. It's a head scratcher but the man stated it and we have discussed this on one of these threads.

 

[NDIrishGuy]

OBP according to Sandberg has no bearing or connection to RBI's and thus runs. It's a head scratcher but the man stated it and we have discussed this on one of these threads.

Yeah, Amaro has stated the same also, it is sad. I'm already at the Andy Reid treatment with Amaro - until he is gone I have no faith in the team.

 

[Retroram52]

I with you NDIrishGuy. As the regulars will emphatically tell you, I detest the idiot.

 

[jvett77]

You continue to use BA as if it was an important stat. OBP and SLG have been proven to be useful, with OBP being the more important number. You can say teams don't "walk their way to a championship" and try to dismiss my argument with a stupid statement such as that, but it has been proven over the long term, that teams that get on base more, score more runs....it is an AMAZING coincidence isn't it? More runners on base = more runs, who the heck could've seen that coming. Know why Juan Pierre was never a great player? Because just like Ben Revere he had no walks, no power, and only speed. Why do you assume that those players cannot use their speed later in the lineup? Because they won't get the 1 guaranteed AB without anyone on base in front of them? Revere is a crap hitter, he has at best a reasonable BA with no walks and no power, placing him at the top of the lineup ensures that a crap hitter gets the most plate appearances....that is stupid baseball and shouldn't require explanation.

Pierre was not a great player? What books have you been reading? In his prime, 2001 thru 2007, he averaged about 190 hits, over .300, almost 100 runs, and 40 walks each year. He declined somewhat after 30 but still managed to hit .300 and score 70-80 runs for several teams. That's a great player.

"teams that get on base more, score more runs." - Nothing's truer than that. But teams that walk more don't necessarily score more runs if they can't drive them in with guys who have good BAs. BAs don't mean much? Are you stupid? Generally, teams with the highest slugging percentage are the top teams in the league. It's about hitting. The walks each team has varies greatly.

 

[NDIrishGuy]

Pierre was not a great player? What books have you been reading? In his prime, 2001 thru 2007, he averaged about 190 hits, over .300, almost 100 runs, and 40 walks each year. He declined somewhat after 30 but still managed to hit .300 and score 70-80 runs for several teams. That's a great player.

"teams that get on base more, score more runs." - Nothing's truer than that. But teams that walk more don't necessarily score more runs if they can't drive them in with guys who have good BAs. BAs don't mean much? Are you stupid? Generally, teams with the highest slugging percentage are the top teams in the league. It's about hitting. The walks each team has varies greatly.

I said BA doesn't mean much and that OBP and SLG are what matters! Are you stupid, did you stick a Q-tip in too far once? Ba is a worthless stat. I'd rather have a player who hits .250 with a .400 OBP than a Juan Pierre/Ben Revere type who hits .290 with a .295 OBP. Not a hard concept. Since when does slugging percentage = batting average? You try to turn my argument around and show your idiocy by changing what your argument is. I agree teams with good SLUGGING PERCENTAGES score a lot, as do teams with good ON BASE PERCENTAGES. Statistically it has been proven (time and time and time and time again) that OBP is the most important and then slugging, and that batting average is worthless.

 

[NDIrishGuy]

Pierre was not a great player? What books have you been reading? In his prime, 2001 thru 2007, he averaged about 190 hits, over .300, almost 100 runs, and 40 walks each year. He declined somewhat after 30 but still managed to hit .300 and score 70-80 runs for several teams. That's a great player.

"teams that get on base more, score more runs." - Nothing's truer than that. But teams that walk more don't necessarily score more runs if they can't drive them in with guys who have good BAs. BAs don't mean much? Are you stupid? Generally, teams with the highest slugging percentage are the top teams in the league. It's about hitting. The walks each team has varies greatly.

Hell, Oakland leads the league in runs this year. They are 18th in MLB at batting with a .249 BA, yet lead MLB with a .334 OBP, and 6th in SLG with a .410. 4 of the top 5 run scoring teams are the TOP 4 in OBP - and this is how it is year after year. If you get on base, you score, period. Doesn't matter how the hell you get there. Your reliance that the ball must leave the bat to be useful is why you are the same type of idiot that Ruben Amaro is. OBP and Power - those are the things that matter most offensively. Hitting 200 singles is not better than hitting 150 singles and drawing 110 walks, but in your pea sized dinosaur brain it appears to be the opposite case. Pat Gillick understood that, you and Ruben seem to be incapable. Shame really.

 

[jvett77]

Hell, Oakland leads the league in runs this year. They are 18th in MLB at batting with a .249 BA, yet lead MLB with a .334 OBP, and 6th in SLG with a .410. 4 of the top 5 run scoring teams are the TOP 4 in OBP - and this is how it is year after year. If you get on base, you score, period. Doesn't matter how the hell you get there. Your reliance that the ball must leave the bat to be useful is why you are the same type of idiot that Ruben Amaro is. OBP and Power - those are the things that matter most offensively. Hitting 200 singles is not better than hitting 150 singles and drawing 110 walks, but in your pea sized dinosaur brain it appears to be the opposite case. Pat Gillick understood that, you and Ruben seem to be incapable. Shame really.

It's funny have some people (a minority, fortunately) must resort to personal insults when they can't answer or explain someone's point or question. We were talking specifically about Rollins vs. Revere and who's better at lead off.

Rollins' walks (34) + hits (55) = 89. Revere's walks (5) plus hits (60) = 65.

So how come JRol only scored 3 more runs?

My suggested answer and reasons why Revere should lead off rather than Rollins:

Speed. Revere has 17 SBs. JRol's 8. Revere will steal 50 bases if you leave him lead off. Revere is a .300 hitter (slumping now at .282) and can learn to bunt more. JRol is a better power-rbi man and should not lead off. He K's 2x Revere's rate and hits .250. We're wasting his power. Plus four 35-year olds in spots 1 thru 5. Absurd.

 

[NDIrishGuy]

It's funny have some people (a minority, fortunately) must resort to personal insults when they can't answer or explain someone's point or question. We were talking specifically about Rollins vs. Revere and who's better at lead off.

Rollins' walks (34) + hits (55) = 89. Revere's walks (5) plus hits (60) = 65.

So how come JRol only scored 3 more runs?

My suggested answer and reasons why Revere should lead off rather than Rollins:

Speed. Revere has 17 SBs. JRol's 8. Revere will steal 50 bases if you leave him lead off. Revere is a .300 hitter (slumping now at .282) and can learn to bunt more. JRol is a better power-rbi man and should not lead off. He K's 2x Revere's rate and hits .250. We're wasting his power. Plus four 35-year olds in spots 1 thru 5. Absurd.

You started the personal insults at 2:11am, so I just continued them. Check the transcripts, they are online.

You want a reason Revere has almost as many runs as Rollins...how about Revere has Rollins and Utley hitting directly behind him - the two best Phillies hitters this year, whereas Rollins has Utley and Howard (the best followed by someone not nearly as good). So in the rare case when Revere gets on base he has the two best hitters hitting behind him. If Utley doesn't knock Rollins in, there is a great chance he is getting stranded through no fault of his own.

You want the real reason though - statistics are a hard and fast rule, I know that is a difficult concept also. Just because Rollins should score more runs than Revere by virtue of getting on base more frequently, over a short period of time they could be close, or *GASP* Revere could actually score more for a period of time. However, statistics are about maximizing the LONG term, not the short term. I can win $10,000 playing craps over 2 weeks, doesn't mean I should keep betting, because in the end the house wins. This is the same thing.

 

[jvett77]

You started the personal insults at 2:11am, so I just continued them. Check the transcripts, they are online.

You want a reason Revere has almost as many runs as Rollins...how about Revere has Rollins and Utley hitting directly behind him - the two best Phillies hitters this year, whereas Rollins has Utley and Howard (the best followed by someone not nearly as good). So in the rare case when Revere gets on base he has the two best hitters hitting behind him. If Utley doesn't knock Rollins in, there is a great chance he is getting stranded through no fault of his own.

You want the real reason though - statistics are a hard and fast rule, I know that is a difficult concept also. Just because Rollins should score more runs than Revere by virtue of getting on base more frequently, over a short period of time they could be close, or *GASP* Revere could actually score more for a period of time. However, statistics are about maximizing the LONG term, not the short term. I can win $10,000 playing craps over 2 weeks, doesn't mean I should keep betting, because in the end the house wins. This is the same thing.

You have the partial answer. Here's the clue. What happens when JRol (.350 OBP) leads off, and walks or singles? Nothing. He goes to first base.

When Revere (,300) singles and then JRol (,250) walks or singles, what happens then? Revere scores if he has stolen second, or moves into scoring position and we have the potential for a big inning. That's why Revere has as many runs and the credit goes to Jimmie many times. Revere - Rollins, a great one-two punch. This way we take full advantage of JRol's high OBP. This is what Ryno has figured out.

Plus, it's dumb to have two .300 hitters batting third and 7th or 8th. Plus at 35, JRol is less aggressive at stealing. Do you like all these concepts, my dino-brained friend?

 

[Cedrique]

I don't care if Ben Revere is Carl fucking Lewis, if he is going to have a .302 obp all year I'd rather have Ruiz leading off.

 

[WestCoastPhan]

I don't care if Ben Revere is Carl fucking Lewis, if he is going to have a .302 obp all year I'd rather have Ruiz leading off.

hahaha! especially if Carl f'n Lewis has an arm and gets a jump on the ball like my 7 year old. who the hell scouted this fuc n guy anyway?

 

[jvett77]

I don't care if Ben Revere is Carl fucking Lewis, if he is going to have a .302 obp all year I'd rather have Ruiz leading off.

Revere's OBP will increase with his average. For June, Revere is hitting .316 with a .350 OBP. Fucken cool, heh? In April when he had a .326 OBP, Ryno put his boy Gwynn in for 4 days which screwed up Revere's progress. I just explained above how the Revere-Rollins combo works.

 

[Cedrique]

Revere's OBP will increase with his average. For June, Revere is hitting .316 with a .350 OBP. Fucken cool, heh? In April when he had a .326 OBP, Ryno put his boy Gwynn in for 4 days which screwed up Revere's progress. I just explained above how the Revere-Rollins combo works.

I lost track of exactly what this discussion was about. If you're saying you think Revere will get better as the year goes on and Rollins won't then it may work out by the end of the year. If you're saying up until now Revere has been better than Rollins, that's like arguing that 9>10