NL West Talk

[navamind]

The Padres ON PAPER are a monster team themselves. And the Dodger, ON PAPER, were astronomically better than every team last year, and they didn’t win it. This is the Padres window. They can’t control that there is another MONSTER team in existence during their window. They can only work within their window.

And it's not like winning the NL West is their only means of making the playoffs. The Marlins have never won the NL East, but that never stopped them from winning the World Series in 1997 or 2003.

 

[calsnowskier]

LOL



Padres gonna Padre

 

[catman]

The Padres won't have Tatis for a while, as he tested positive for a banned substance.

Padres star Fernando Tatis Jr. suspended 80 games for performance-enhancing drugs

The Padres' star shortstop is done for the season.

sports.yahoo.com

 

[navamind]

Dodgers have a team ERA+ of 144 and OPS+ of 116. Fewest runs allowed and most runs scored. In fact, they're scoring about half a run more per game than the 2nd best team (Mets; 5.35 to 4.86). They also have a half run advantage in ERA over the second best team... which is also the Mets (2.89 to 3.54).

edit: in NL.

 

[Manster7588]

So the Dodgers are human.

Who knew?

 

[socaljim242]

Dodgers have a team ERA+ of 144 and OPS+ of 116. Fewest runs allowed and most runs scored. In fact, they're scoring about half a run more per game than the 2nd best team (Mets; 5.35 to 4.86). They also have a half run advantage in ERA over the second best team... which is also the Mets (2.89 to 3.54).

edit: in NL.

They just got back possibly their best arm in Dustin May. Just back from Tommy John surgery . Struck out 9 in five innings as the Dodgers beat the Marlins 7-0. Those ERA and OPS numbers just got better.

May electric in return from Tommy John surgery

LOS ANGELES -- The Dodgers already had what was quite arguably the best starting rotation in baseball this year. Dustin May’s electric 2022 debut on Saturday night at Dodger Stadium -- 475 days since his last Major League start -- proved that even the best can get better. In his

www.mlb.com

 

[catman]

He had a great game. He's got really good stuff and knows what to do with it.

 

[navamind]

Dodgers, Muncy reach 1-year, $13.5M extension

The Los Angeles Dodgers and two-time All-Star Max Muncy agreed Monday on a $13.5 million, one-year contract for 2023.

www.espn.com

he's had a weird year. He's gotten his OPS+ up to 98 but that's mostly propped up by a scorching hot August... June is his only other month with an OPS above .600. seems like the biggest culprits are a .219 BABIP, career low HR/FB rate (not counting 2015/16 where he was a bench player) and a career high IFFB%. Even so I'd take the chance on him returning to 2018-19/2021 form.

 

[navamind]

The Bellinger Tolls For the 2019 NL MVP

Cody Bellinger’s offensive collapse has been historic and is looking permanent.

blogs.fangraphs.com

 

[socaljim242]

The Bellinger Tolls For the 2019 NL MVP

Cody Bellinger’s offensive collapse has been historic and is looking permanent.

blogs.fangraphs.com

Yeah it's bad. Feel sorry for him but he's in his own head and it doesn't look like he can figure it out. That swing just doesn't work at this level. Once the league figured him out he never adjusted. I'd take Trayce Thomson over Bellinger now. Tracye has hit about .285 with the Dodgers which is about 45 games worth of sample. He doesn't have the power of Bellinger and is a notch below in defense but thats not much of a knock since Bellingers a gold glove in the outfield. Last night Bellinger kept striking out in critical situations and Trayce was keeping innings alive with two out hits.

 

[catman]

Bellinger and Yelich are very similar players, IMO. Both have tremendous skills, but as has been said, both have swings that have large holes in them. They need to tighten up those holes if they want to continue at this level.

 

[navamind]

Bellinger and Yelich are very similar players, IMO. Both have tremendous skills, but as has been said, both have swings that have large holes in them. They need to tighten up those holes if they want to continue at this level.

Yelich was very successful even before his big two seasons in Milwaukee.

 

[catman]

Yelich was very successful even before his big two seasons in Milwaukee.

Yes he was. He has fallen into a pattern over the past couple of years, though. He still hits mistakes, but he can be pitched to and the league knows it. Just like Bellinger. High fastballs will get them both.

 

[navamind]

Yes he was. He has fallen into a pattern over the past couple of years, though. He still hits mistakes, but he can be pitched to and the league knows it. Just like Bellinger. High fastballs will get them both.

There's a lot of things that stick out with Bellinger.

1. Walk rate has plummeted. He has an 11.1% walk rate over his career, but it was down to 8.9% last year and it's just 7.0% this year.
2. Strikeout rates have been at career highs the last two seasons. Though to be fair, his SwStr% this year is in line with his career average (11.8%), which isn't terribly high.
3. He's not hitting the ball quite as hard as he was a few years ago. Last year's HardHit% (34.4%) was the worst of his career and while it's improved this year (38.8%), it's still considerably below his career rate (41.3%). His EVs have been in line with his earlier seasons but the last two seasons he's posted the lowest maxEVs of his career.
4. He's getting less barrels than he was in 2017 and 2019.
5. He has a .248 BABIP. It's a low figure, but given that he has a career .277 BABIP, I'd hardly call it bad luck. His xBA this year (.216) is only a few points above his actual BA (.208). He's actually outperforming his xSLG (.402 to .368). He relies quite a bit on home runs to raise his average and they do not count as balls in play.
6. He has one of the higher launch angles among MLB hitters at 20.3 (10th among qualified hitters). He does rank 18th in IFFB% (14.4%).
7. His HR/FB rate is the second lowest of his career (12.2%; last year's 9.4% was the lowest of his career) and lags well behind his career rate (18.2%). He had a 25.2% rate in 2017 and 24.6% rate in 2019.

 

[navamind]

D-Backs have some intriguing pieces going forward. Gallen/Kelly looks like a very solid 1-2 punch. Varsho is a pretty good hitting catcher that can also play center field! They have several other guys like Ketel Marte and Josh Rojas who are pretty good hitters and can play mulitple positions. Corbin Carroll looks like a potential star. I think Alek Thomas will be much better next year. Lawlar could make his MLB debut next year or in 2024.

They also exercised Lovullo's option for next year.

 

[Montalban]

NBC Sports Bay Area & California – video, news, schedules, scores

NBC Sports Bay Area & California | Video, News, Schedules, Scores and more

www.nbcsports.com

Is this guy still on the team? he's never on the field

 

[socaljim242]

There's a lot of things that stick out with Bellinger.

1. Walk rate has plummeted. He has an 11.1% walk rate over his career, but it was down to 8.9% last year and it's just 7.0% this year.
2. Strikeout rates have been at career highs the last two seasons. Though to be fair, his SwStr% this year is in line with his career average (11.8%), which isn't terribly high.
3. He's not hitting the ball quite as hard as he was a few years ago. Last year's HardHit% (34.4%) was the worst of his career and while it's improved this year (38.8%), it's still considerably below his career rate (41.3%). His EVs have been in line with his earlier seasons but the last two seasons he's posted the lowest maxEVs of his career.
4. He's getting less barrels than he was in 2017 and 2019.
5. He has a .248 BABIP. It's a low figure, but given that he has a career .277 BABIP, I'd hardly call it bad luck. His xBA this year (.216) is only a few points above his actual BA (.208). He's actually outperforming his xSLG (.402 to .368). He relies quite a bit on home runs to raise his average and they do not count as balls in play.
6. He has one of the higher launch angles among MLB hitters at 20.3 (10th among qualified hitters). He does rank 18th in IFFB% (14.4%).
7. His HR/FB rate is the second lowest of his career (12.2%; last year's 9.4% was the lowest of his career) and lags well behind his career rate (18.2%). He had a 25.2% rate in 2017 and 24.6% rate in 2019.

I heard sometime last week that Bellinger has one of if not the worst batting averages swinging at the first pitch. Usually you don't swing at the first pitch if it's not something you like. You go up looking for a certain pitch from every pitcher and if you see it on the first pitch you go for it and he can't even seem to hit pitches that are where he wants them.
I went last night and Joey Gallo hit a three run home run. He's got a lot of Bellinger in him with that swing but you can tell he's making an effort to put more balls in play. Bellinger is just so lost up there.
If it were me I'd have Trayce Thompson take games away from Bellinger. Tracye has been hitting around .290 since the Padres left him on the curb.

 

[Montalban]

Good God, the Giants are dreadful

 

[Montalban]

I heard sometime last week that Bellinger has one of if not the worst batting averages swinging at the first pitch. Usually you don't swing at the first pitch if it's not something you like. You go up looking for a certain pitch from every pitcher and if you see it on the first pitch you go for it and he can't even seem to hit pitches that are where he wants them.
I went last night and Joey Gallo hit a three run home run. He's got a lot of Bellinger in him with that swing but you can tell he's making an effort to put more balls in play. Bellinger is just so lost up there.
If it were me I'd have Trayce Thompson take games away from Bellinger. Tracye has been hitting around .290 since the Padres left him on the curb.

So strange that a guy can go from an MVP year to hitting .150 two years later. He has had a lot of injuries though.

 

[calsnowskier]

So strange that a guy can go from an MVP year to hitting .150 two years later. He has had a lot of injuries though.

I can name a bunch of guys who have done that just off the top of my head…

Hernandez
Eckersly
Clemens
Verlander
…