Nick Mullens

[Pattersonca65]

He showed some good things. Maybe with the right personnel around him he could be successful. He was a turnover machine though. I like what Mullens has done better. The only thing I think Beathard did better than Mullens was throw the deep ball. He has a very strong arm too.

I think you are being generous with Beathard's arm strength. It might be strong in comparison to Mullens but Beathard's arm strength is average at best and his accuracy beyond ten yards is not very good. If he can get the internal clock to work in his head and learn to check down or throw the ball away to avoid a sack he would be much better off

 

[Pattersonca65]

So did JT O'Sullivan and Troy Smith. And Shaun Hill.

You are being generous with Shaun Hill. He was never known to have much of an arm

 

[Montalban]

The horrendous defense actually made him look better. It's easier to get catch-up yards & points than put an offense over the top for the win. Especially when your Effense put the O back on the field so quicky, and the opposing D is worn out.

Niners' offensive support wasn't good this year, but it wasn't really all that bad either. Closer to mediocre than one of the worst in the league IMO. Everyone has injuries.

Disagree. They never gave him the ball with positive field position that he could work with. I'm not trying to defend the guy's performance, it was unacceptable. His one redeeming quality was his toughness but he could not win. With the pressure on, he choked.
A part of the 4th quarter failures when having the lead though was the coaching staff's lack of confidence in him. They'd go into a shell and go three and out. Never giving him a chance

 

[Montalban]

I think you are being generous with Beathard's arm strength. It might be strong in comparison to Mullens but Beathard's arm strength is average at best and his accuracy beyond ten yards is not very good. If he can get the internal clock to work in his head and learn to check down or throw the ball away to avoid a sack he would be much better off

I can't forget that perfect TD bomb to Goodwin against Green Bay.

 

[NinerSickness]

Disagree. They never gave him the ball with positive field position that he could work with.

The 25 yard line isn't good enough field position??? When the other team scores, your offense is inevitably going to look better. Especially because the other team's defense is on the field so much.

This is football 101.

 

[broncosmitty]

You are being generous with Shaun Hill. He was never known to have much of an arm

He was a great option as a backup though.


Atleast I always liked having him in Detroit.

 

[Montalban]

The 25 yard line isn't good enough field position??? When the other team scores, your offense is inevitably going to look better. Especially because the other team's defense is on the field so much.

This is football 101.

No. Positive field position when the entire offensive playbook is open is probably more like the 40 or midfield in my experience.
I'm stunned however at the bolded, however. Football 101 clearly states that it is much easier to play with the lead than from behind when the defense knows what you have to do.

 

[Montalban]

You are being generous with Shaun Hill. He was never known to have much of an arm

Shaun Hill is famous though for throwing the pass that created all this "didn't survive the ground" nonsense. Remember that?

 

[NinerSickness]

No. Positive field position when the entire offensive playbook is open is probably more like the 40 or midfield in my experience.
I'm stunned however at the bolded, however. Football 101 clearly states that it is much easier to play with the lead than from behind when the defense knows what you have to do.

I'm sorry, but that is flat-out asinine. Garbage yards are more difficult to get than yards that win the game?

2012:

Defense and Special Teams: Field Position Matters

Niners had the 2nd-worst starting field position in the NFL and the 2nd-best yards per play.

Seattle had the worst FP, and they had the 6th-best yards per play.

Atlanta had the 4th-worst FP and the 4th-best yards per play.

Your theory is false. There is no correlation.

On a side note, the difference in starting field position between teams is usually negligible. The difference is usually only a few yards from worst to best.

 

[Montalban]

I'm sorry, but that is flat-out asinine. Garbage yards are more difficult to get than yards that win the game?

2012:

Defense and Special Teams: Field Position Matters

Niners had the 2nd-worst starting field position in the NFL and the 2nd-best yards per play.

Seattle had the worst FP, and they had the 6th-best yards per play.

Atlanta had the 4th-worst FP and the 4th-best yards per play.

Your theory is false. There is no correlation.

On a side note, the difference in starting field position between teams is usually negligible. The difference is usually only a few yards from worst to best.

I'm astonished that a normally fairly astute football guy like you would make such a ludicrous claim. Yards mean nothing, winning games means everything. Everyone will tell you, every quarterback will tell you, its much easier to play from ahead than behind. A good defense makes a world of difference for a quarterback especially a mediocre one. See Super Bowl winning QBs Trent Dilfer and Joe Flacco.

 

[NinerSickness]

I'm astonished that a normally fairly astute football guy like you would make such a ludicrous claim. Yards mean nothing, winning games means everything.

No disagreement there. But we're comparing offenses, not teams.

Everyone will tell you, every quarterback will tell you, its much easier to play from ahead than behind. A good defense makes a world of difference for a quarterback especially a mediocre one. See Super Bowl winning QBs Trent Dilfer and Joe Flacco.

N.F.L. Quarterback Statistics in Close Games

This is a QB study from 2010.

17 QBs on this list play better when there's a difference of more than 10 points, and 11 of them play worse (passer rating). Statistically speaking, your theory is false. When the game is a blow out, defenses ease up and just try to keep you in bounds to keep the clock going rather than focusing on stopping first downs.

It's called "garbage yards" for a reason.

On a side note, good QBs tend to have a higher rating while behind, and bad QBs tend to have the opposite happen. That's because bad QBs just start chucking it up there when they're behind because they have nothing left in the arsenal but gambling on home runs.

 

[jerseyhawksfan79]

Yeah, I'd hang on to Mullens over Beathard as the backup to Garopollo until we know more.

I forgot Beathard was on the team. Still have nightmares of Mullins from last week.

 

[Montalban]

No disagreement there. But we're comparing offenses, not teams.



N.F.L. Quarterback Statistics in Close Games

This is a QB study from 2010.

17 QBs on this list play better when there's a difference of more than 10 points, and 11 of them play worse (passer rating). Statistically speaking, your theory is false. When the game is a blow out, defenses ease up and just try to keep you in bounds to keep the clock going rather than focusing on stopping first downs.

It's called "garbage yards" for a reason.

On a side note, good QBs tend to have a higher rating while behind, and bad QBs tend to have the opposite happen. That's because bad QBs just start chucking it up there when they're behind because they have nothing left in the arsenal but gambling on home runs.

You're talking statistics and I'm talking success. That is where the difference lies. You seem to think statistics mean success where I'm saying winning means success. But if a defense knows you have to pass like when your defense sucks and you are behind all the time its more difficult on the QB than it is when the offense can run or pass and thus dictate to the defense.
Take the 49ers for instance. Steve DeBerg had better passing stats in 1979 then Joe Montana had in 1981 but which one was more successful? Montana's team won the Super Bowl and I think DeBerg 's was 2 and 14.

 

[Montalban]

I forgot Beathard was on the team. Still have nightmares of Mullins from last week.

Most people have. he was a nightmare for 49er fans.

 

[NinerSickness]

You're talking statistics and I'm talking success. That is where the difference lies. You seem to think statistics mean success where I'm saying winning means success.

No, we're on the same page about this point. But you can't talk about success when you're comparing JUST offense or JUST quarterbacks. Success is a team thing, but for offense or quarterbacking, you have to look at statistics.

But if a defense knows you have to pass like when your defense sucks and you are behind all the time its more difficult on the QB than it is when the offense can run or pass and thus dictate to the defense.

Then why did more QBs do better down more than 10 than when the game was closer? There's an element of truth to what you're saying, but it's not as big of a factor as defenses being focused on running the clock out versus stopping a first down. You can afford to bend but not break when you're up by 2 touchdowns.

 

[Montalban]

No, we're on the same page about this point. But you can't talk about success when you're comparing JUST offense or JUST quarterbacks. Success is a team thing, but for offense or quarterbacking, you have to look at statistics.



Then why did more QBs do better down more than 10 than when the game was closer? There's an element of truth to what you're saying, but it's not as big of a factor as defenses being focused on running the clock out versus stopping a first down. You can afford to bend but not break when you're up by 2 touchdowns.

I think you answered that question in your very next sentence. I think that is why the stats may be better for some QBs when they are behind; because the defenses are playing prevent. But those yards are meaningless statistics, empty yards.
I guess I disagree about judging QBs by stats. Wouldn't you rather have Montana than DeBerg?

 

[NinerSickness]

I guess I disagree about judging QBs by stats. Wouldn't you rather have Montana than DeBerg?

The postseason is the great equalizer because you don't get there without a defense that is at least decent, and you don't win a SB with a piss-poor D. In the regular season, you can't just look at whose W-L record is better to determine who's the better QB; you've got to look at it situationally. But in the post season, it usually comes down to 1 drive or even 1 play; and a QB is enough to make the difference there. That's why I put postseason performances at the top of my list for how good a QB is.

I seriously doubt Nick Mullens will ever play in a postseason game. He's simply not a good QB. I'm not going to be tricked by some garbage yards on the 4th-worst team in the NFL in a throw-away season.

 

[Montalban]

The postseason is the great equalizer because you don't get there without a defense that is at least decent, and you don't win a SB with a piss-poor D. In the regular season, you can't just look at whose W-L record is better to determine who's the better QB; you've got to look at it situationally. But in the post season, it usually comes down to 1 drive or even 1 play; and a QB is enough to make the difference there. That's why I put postseason performances at the top of my list for how good a QB is.

I seriously doubt Nick Mullens will ever play in a postseason game. He's simply not a good QB. I'm not going to be tricked by some garbage yards on the 4th-worst team in the NFL in a throw-away season.

Not sure he produced garbage yards against the Raiders, Broncos and the second Sea Hawks game; especially the last two. They needed everything he gave them in those games and the team did win. The Raiders game can be partially explained by the Raiders being horrible and them not having a book on Mullens.
I agree, he'll probably never be in the post season but I'd say he's acquitted himself fairly well.

 

[NinerSickness]

Not sure he produced garbage yards against the Raiders, Broncos and the second Sea Hawks game; especially the last two.

Raiders? It's still garbage yards if you're up by 20 just as much as if you're down. The Raiders mailed that game in after the 1st quarter. They couldn't block anything.

The Seattle game was a great game for Mullens, but do you really expect that performance to be what you expect from him over the course of his career? I think that's wildly optimistic.

Mullens belongs in the NFL, which means he exceeded my expectations. But he's backup material. If you think he's the kind of QB you can build a winner around, I think you're looking at him through rose-coloured, red & gold glasses.

If he proves me wrong, I'll eat my words.

 

[richig07]

I think the Niners beat the Bears this weekend and Eddie Jackson being out doesn't help me get over that feeling...